Linke is a great size and could fill out into a really good AFL sized mid, kicking under pressure though atm is pretty horrid tbh. He's a project for mine, good upside.
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He is definitely a nice size and the running capacity is impressive. It's the speed and explosiveness that limits his upside in my view. I feel he's a bit limited on the inside. With that lack of speed he struggles to get to the outside of the contest and so many of his disposals are under pressure because he can't create that separation. In a professional environment I'm sure he could add a touch of pace and explosiveness but I think he'd still have to develop his ability to navigate his way through traffic as he's likely never going to be able to rely on that burst. I actually think his best footy has been played on the wing, where his ability to cover the ground allows him to accumulate the footy with mark and kick. I personally don't think I'd have a list spot for him this year but he's definitely part of the large late national/rookie draft group.Linke is a great size and could fill out into a really good AFL sized mid, kicking under pressure though atm is pretty horrid tbh. He's a project for mine, good upside.
He is definitely a nice size and the running capacity is impressive. It's the speed and explosiveness that limits his upside in my view. I feel he's a bit limited on the inside. With that lack of speed he struggles to get to the outside of the contest and so many of his disposals are under pressure because he can't create that separation. In a professional environment I'm sure he could add a touch of pace and explosiveness but I think he'd still have to develop his ability to navigate his way through traffic as he's likely never going to be able to rely on that burst. I actually think his best footy has been played on the wing, where his ability to cover the ground allows him to accumulate the footy with mark and kick. I personally don't think I'd have a list spot for him this year but he's definitely part of the large late national/rookie draft group.
Great job and appreciate your effortAs part of my final rankings I've tried to group and define tiers. It's been an interesting exercise and has caused some minor movement. It's definitely an imperfect science because there are so many variables and rightly or wrongly, it has slightly shifted my perspective on some players. The most challenging aspect when defining the tiers was how to factor in a prospects projected floor and ceiling within each tier definition. Not every single prospect fits perfectly into their tier but I've tried to give a general indication of how I view that group.
Tier 1
Top tier talent. Minimal flaws, if any. Hard to envision these guys not playing 150+ games if they stay healthy.
1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
Tier 2
Top tier talent with minor flaws. High level of natural football ability with the physical tools necessary to have success at AFL level. Hard to envision these guys not playing 100+ games if healthy.
3. Neil Erasmus
4. Tyler Sonsie
5. Josh Ward
6. Finn Callaghan
7. Ben Hobbs
8. Sam Darcy
9. Josh Rachele
Tier 3A
Easily talented enough to make it at AFL level but possess a flaw that raises just a minor concern. High floor prospects.
10. Matthew Johnson
11. Josh Gibcus
12. Zac Taylor
13. Josh Goater
14. Connor MacDonald
15. Darcy Wilmot
16. Mitch Owens
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
18. Tom Brown
Tier 3B
Easily talented enough to make it at AFL level but possess a flaw/s that raises a minor concern/s. Similar ceiling to 'Tier 3A' but a lower floor.
19. Kai Lohmann
20. Josh Sinn
21. Sam Butler
22. Campbell Chesser
23. Rhett Bazzo
24. Arlo Draper
25. Mac Andrew
26. Jye Amiss
Tier 4
AFL standard traits and obvious role at the next level. Don't quite have the ceiling of the prospects in higher tiers but have a typically well-rounded skill set. Project as serviceable role players at AFL level.
27. Paul Curtis
28. Marcus Windhager
29. Brady Hough
30. Jacob Van Rooyen
31. James Willis
32. Judson Clarke
Tier 5A
Enough talent to find a role at AFL level and a best 22 ceiling, but still a fair bit of development required to get there.
33. Mitch Knevitt
34. Leek Alleer
35. Miller Bergman
36. Blake Howes
37. Cooper Murley
38. Jamieson Ballantyne
39. Josh Fahey
40. Matthew Roberts
41. Sam Banks
Tier 5B
Enough talent to find a role at AFL level but relatively low ceiling, probably fringe best 22.
42. Lachlan Rankin
43. Charlie Molan
44. Angus Sheldrick
45. Ethan Regan
46. Taj Woewodin
47. Jesse Motlop
48. Kaden Harbour
49. Toby Conway
50. Eric Benning
Sounds like we need a graph rather than a listI appreciate tiers as it makes it easier to think about relative pick value across a draft.
I'm not sure the categorisation quite works though, in that a linear step-down in both ceiling and floor is unlikely - rather it's the intersection between the two (and the probability of either end) that makes the player.
For example, you could conceivably have a very safe, medium-floor/medium-ceiling prospect (let's say Wilmot) and a boom-or-bust lower-floor/higher-ceiling type (Goater perhaps) in the same aggregate tier despite very different career possibilities.
Completely agreed and I think I outlined that to an extent in my post. I think maybe they add a touch more value than having no definition or description, even if they're not perfect. Probably not something I'd look to replicate again as there are just way too many variables.I appreciate tiers as it makes it easier to think about relative pick value across a draft.
I'm not sure the categorisation quite works though, in that a linear step-down in both ceiling and floor is unlikely - rather it's the intersection between the two (and the probability of either end) that makes the player.
For example, you could conceivably have a very safe, medium-floor/medium-ceiling prospect (let's say Wilmot) and a boom-or-bust lower-floor/higher-ceiling type (Goater perhaps) in the same aggregate tier despite very different career possibilities.
Yeah, I saw Motlop and Benning listed as 'low ceiling' and was thinking the same.I appreciate tiers as it makes it easier to think about relative pick value across a draft.
I'm not sure the categorisation quite works though, in that a linear step-down in both ceiling and floor is unlikely - rather it's the intersection between the two (and the probability of either end) that makes the player.
For example, you could conceivably have a very safe, medium-floor/medium-ceiling prospect (let's say Wilmot) and a boom-or-bust lower-floor/higher-ceiling type (Goater perhaps) in the same aggregate tier despite very different career possibilities.
They don't.They actually have a high ceiling
It's probably more just difference of opinion here, as I don't view their ceiling as particularly high. I see both their ceilings around that fringe best 22 level. Motlop I view more highly and think he can play some games at the level but I don't necessarily think he'll be one of the better small forwards in the competition.Yeah, I saw Motlop and Benning listed as 'low ceiling' and was thinking the same.
They actually have a high ceiling, it's just that their floor is Grand Canyon.
Our boy KaiRound 1 Review
Hard to make an assessment this early but a couple of points on things I liked/disliked from night 1 of the draft.
A good night for Clubs with multiple picks
I think Fremantle nailed it with Amiss and Erasmus and are now positioned incredibly well do add another first round rated talent (Johnson, Goater, Sonsie or Butler) or trade and add more draft capital. Richmond strengthened their defence with Gibcus and Brown. Perhaps could've gone a midfielder with their second selection but I rate Brown highly. I LOVED Brisbane's haul, getting two of my favourites in Wilmot and Lohmann. Callaghan is a great get for the Giant's and whilst I don't love Alleer in the first round, it was a tough position to pick from and I think the selection is defensible.
Sheldrick to Sydney
It's not overly surprising, especially given that it was Sydney who made the selection, but I just don't love Sheldrick in the first round. There were other midfielders I much preferred still on the board who I think have scope to have better careers.
Hobbs to Essendon
I love the value for Essendon here. There's valid questions about the fit but at some point the talent is too hard to ignore.
Talent available in Round 2
The second round is going to be really interesting viewing with some high quality kids still on the board. I don't think anyone would've been too surprised to see Johnson, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Howes, Draper, Taylor or Knevitt taken in the first round, so I'm excited to see where they eventually land.
Some surprises for Cal
I'm a big fan of the work Cal Twomey does in the draft space but it was still nice to have a few surprises in the first round. Johnson sliding all the way through to night 2, Alleer to the Giants and Sheldrick to the Swans, though not entirely unpredictable, made the first night more interesting.
Fox Footy's Player Comps
I'm pleased not everyone was compared to Dangerfield and Fyfe but there were a few tough ones. Kai Lohmann compared to Laitham Vandemeer broke my heart.
Good comments, on Leek Alleer with hindsight you can see their thinking, on their 1st pick debating over Gibcus,Round 1 Review
Hard to make an assessment this early but a couple of points on things I liked/disliked from night 1 of the draft.
A good night for Clubs with multiple picks
I think Fremantle nailed it with Amiss and Erasmus and are now positioned incredibly well do add another first round rated talent (Johnson, Goater, Sonsie or Butler) or trade and add more draft capital. Richmond strengthened their defence with Gibcus and Brown. Perhaps could've gone a midfielder with their second selection but I rate Brown highly. I LOVED Brisbane's haul, getting two of my favourites in Wilmot and Lohmann. Callaghan is a great get for the Giant's and whilst I don't love Alleer in the first round, it was a tough position to pick from and I think the selection is defensible.
Sheldrick to Sydney
It's not overly surprising, especially given that it was Sydney who made the selection, but I just don't love Sheldrick in the first round. There were other midfielders I much preferred still on the board who I think have scope to have better careers.
Hobbs to Essendon
I love the value for Essendon here. There's valid questions about the fit but at some point the talent is too hard to ignore.
Talent available in Round 2
The second round is going to be really interesting viewing with some high quality kids still on the board. I don't think anyone would've been too surprised to see Johnson, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Howes, Draper, Taylor or Knevitt taken in the first round, so I'm excited to see where they eventually land.
Some surprises for Cal
I'm a big fan of the work Cal Twomey does in the draft space but it was still nice to have a few surprises in the first round. Johnson sliding all the way through to night 2, Alleer to the Giants and Sheldrick to the Swans, though not entirely unpredictable, made the first night more interesting.
Fox Footy's Player Comps
I'm pleased not everyone was compared to Dangerfield and Fyfe but there were a few tough ones. Kai Lohmann compared to Laitham Vandemeer broke my heart.
I was so pumped for him when his name was called but was definitely hoping he'd be a chance at 33. I guess this is better than him going the pick before or us overlooking him for someone else..Our boy Kai
Bugger though I was hoping he last through to #33 and we'd take a look.
Yeah, I think you can definitely see the logic in it!Good comments, on Leek Alleer with hindsight you can see their thinking, on their 1st pick debating over Gibcus,
Andrew + Callaghan.
Need some support in the back line and it probably made it easier to pick Callaghan
when they thought of taking Alleer with that pick as it gives them the coverage.
As a bonus with that leap he may go forward later on.
Fox Footy's Player Comps
I'm pleased not everyone was compared to Dangerfield and Fyfe but there were a few tough ones. Kai Lohmann compared to Laitham Vandemeer broke my heart.
Yeah I remember the exact moment! Pretty funnyIt was funny watching the telecast. When talking about the Lohmann pick, the commentator(forget whether it was Johnson, Shifter or Kingy) was comparing him to Isaac Heeney while the graphic was comparing him to Laitham Vandemeer.
Round 1 Review
Hard to make an assessment this early but a couple of points on things I liked/disliked from night 1 of the draft.
A good night for Clubs with multiple picks
I think Fremantle nailed it with Amiss and Erasmus and are now positioned incredibly well do add another first round rated talent (Johnson, Goater, Sonsie or Butler) or trade and add more draft capital. Richmond strengthened their defence with Gibcus and Brown. Perhaps could've gone a midfielder with their second selection but I rate Brown highly. I LOVED Brisbane's haul, getting two of my favourites in Wilmot and Lohmann. Callaghan is a great get for the Giant's and whilst I don't love Alleer in the first round, it was a tough position to pick from and I think the selection is defensible.
Sheldrick to Sydney
It's not overly surprising, especially given that it was Sydney who made the selection, but I just don't love Sheldrick in the first round. There were other midfielders I much preferred still on the board who I think have scope to have better careers.
Hobbs to Essendon
I love the value for Essendon here. There's valid questions about the fit but at some point the talent is too hard to ignore.
Talent available in Round 2
The second round is going to be really interesting viewing with some high quality kids still on the board. I don't think anyone would've been too surprised to see Johnson, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Howes, Draper, Taylor or Knevitt taken in the first round, so I'm excited to see where they eventually land.
Some surprises for Cal
I'm a big fan of the work Cal Twomey does in the draft space but it was still nice to have a few surprises in the first round. Johnson sliding all the way through to night 2, Alleer to the Giants and Sheldrick to the Swans, though not entirely unpredictable, made the first night more interesting.
Fox Footy's Player Comps
I'm pleased not everyone was compared to Dangerfield and Fyfe but there were a few tough ones. Kai Lohmann compared to Laitham Vandemeer broke my heart.
No current season stats available
MA.
Surprised about the omissions of:
Rayson.
Stagg.
Beecken x2.
Ferres.
O'Loughlin.
Becker.
Dudley.
See you in another thread.