Club Focus Collingwood 2021 - Kreuger, Lipinski, Daicos, Murley, Harrison

[Seedsfan]

I'm sure you guys are happy, you are getting a gun. But if we bid and you rated JHF higher why would you match? It makes no sense. This argument that keeps popping up just seems like post-justification of one of worse trades of recent times.

Even is we rated JHF slightly higher we would match the mid for Daicos. He is a Melbourne boy so there is a much higher likelihood that he stays as there is no go home factor. Then there is the family connection. Never having siblings I don’t talk as an expert but I imagine playing professional sport with a brother would be pretty amazing so drafting Nick would also help us keep Josh (not that there have been any indications that he wants to leave)

 

[Prochard123]

Pick 36 and Pick 38 (both late 2nd rounders) for a future 2nd, who would be interested?

 

[perplexed]

Pick 36 and Pick 38 (both late 2nd rounders) for a future 2nd, who would be interested?

I think you'll struggle to find a buyer at that price. It isn't a great area of the draft. Those picks aren't worth much more than picks in the 50's as so many of the picks in between will disappear early in the draft in matching Darcy and Daicos.
You will also need about half of those points for matching as you won't want of deficit of much more than 100 or so points.

 

[VinnieB]

This ignores other options such as trade. And nothing with regards to Daicos impacts how good/bad the 2020 trade was. At the end of the day Collingwood traded #2 for several kids in 2020, that trade will hold on it's own.

By matching, they would effectively allow themselves to do what they're actually doing this year. Getting one of the best players in the draft for a handful of F2, F3 and R3 picks. A fantastic deal.

If they still had #2, they'd just protect it by either trading with North and up, or trading it into 2022. There is no way they would have used pick #2 to match a pick #1 bid and waste its value.

Exactly.

I wonder how tempted North would have been to receive 2021 pick 2 and 2022 1st round pick (likely to be top 4) for their number 1 pick?

 

[VinnieB]

I'm sure you guys are happy, you are getting a gun. But if we bid and you rated JHF higher why would you match? It makes no sense. This argument that keeps popping up just seems like post-justification of one of worse trades of recent times.

Why would they rate JHF higher?

 

[perplexed]

Why would they rate JHF higher?

Clearly many draft watchers rate JHF higher. Who do Collingwood rate higher? Like you, I have no idea. And it no longer matters.

 

[Prochard123]

I think you'll struggle to find a buyer at that price. It isn't a great area of the draft. Those picks aren't worth much more than picks in the 50's as so many of the picks in between will disappear early in the draft in matching Darcy and Daicos.
You will also need about half of those points for matching as you won't want of deficit of much more than 100 or so points.

Huh?

But both 36 and 38 will also come in to 34 and 36? And how does what happens to the later picks affect the valuation of pick 34 and 36, when we are comparing pick 34 vs future 2nd, and not pick 34 vs pick 50?

You are still selecting the 34th and 36th best player in the draft, which are 2x 2nd round selections.

 

[perplexed]

Huh?

But both 36 and 38 will also come in to 34 and 36? And how does what happens to the later picks affect the valuation of pick 34 and 36, when we are comparing pick 34 vs future 2nd, and not pick 34 vs pick 50?

You are still selecting the 34th and 36th best player in the draft, which are 2x 2nd round selections.

You've got it the wrong way around. Those picks won't come in if you trade them down, they would drift out as clubs will be matching with later picks. Picks 36 and 38 would likely become something like 41 and 43 - Darcy, Daicos, Owens, Fahey, Windhager, maybe Burgoyne). However, what is now pick 56 (held by Essendon) could come in to around 50 as so many picks below it will disappear into points. Basically, they aren't worth much.

 

[Prochard123]

You've got it the wrong way around. Those picks won't come in if you trade them down, they would drift out as clubs will be matching with later picks. Picks 36 and 38 would likely become something like 41 and 43 - Darcy, Daicos, Owens, Fahey, Windhager, maybe Burgoyne). However, what is now pick 56 (held by Essendon) could come in to around 50 as so many picks below it will disappear into points. Basically, they aren't worth much.

???

What are you talking about?

Western bulldogs trades 23 for 2 picks in early 30s to match Darcy at 2.

36 and 38 get moved up to 34 and 36. We trade 34 and 36 before matching Daicos bid?

How does 34 and 36 become 41 and 43?

 

[Lings of Geelong]

???

What are you talking about?

Western bulldogs trades 23 for 2 picks in early 30s to match Darcy at 2.

36 and 38 get moved up to 34 and 36. We trade 34 and 36 before matching Daicos bid?

How does 34 and 36 become 41 and 43?

Darcy bid at 2
Dogs trade 23 for 32+34
Dogs use 32, 34, 43, 44, 45 to match(get 56 back)
Pies picks now 35, 37, 39, 42, 44, 55

Pies trade 35+37 prior to matching Daicos bid
Use later picks to match
35+37 become 36+38

If other bids (Owens, Fahey, Windhager, Burgoyne) come before 36, 36+38 will continue to shuffle back if later picks are used to match the bids

 

[Keystone agony]

With Daicos bid likely at 4 now

It could be considered that pick 51 + 56 (48+52 After S.Darcy bid)

Could be traded to pies for pick 40?

 

[Prochard123]

Darcy bid at 2
Dogs trade 23 for 32+34
Dogs use 32, 34, 43, 44, 45 to match(get 56 back)
Pies picks now 35, 37, 39, 42, 44, 55

Pies trade 35+37 prior to matching Daicos bid
Use later picks to match
35+37 become 36+38

If other bids (Owens, Fahey, Windhager, Burgoyne) come before 36, 36+38 will continue to shuffle back if later picks are used to match the bids

That’d all fine and all.

But when we actually make the trade, which is before Daicos bid, it would be 34 and 36 (wbd using 2 of geelongs picks).

what happens afterwards is none of our concern, all picks later on can move forwards or backwards.

 

[Lings of Geelong]

With Daicos bid likely at 4 now

It could be considered that pick 51 + 56 (48+52 After S.Darcy bid)

Could be traded to pies for pick 40?

I reckon the Bombers are a chance of getting 36 and 38 if they want them. Something like 56 (53 after Darcy match) and Future 2nd would give the pies enough points to match at 4 and a full 2022 set to trade back into 2021

 

[Lings of Geelong]

That’d all fine and all.

But when we actually make the trade, which is before Daicos bid, it would be 34 and 36 (wbd using 2 of geelongs picks).

what happens afterwards is none of our concern, all picks later on can move forwards or backwards.

If the dogs use 32 and 34 towards Pick 2, any later picks only come in 1 spot. Pick 2 is effectively a newly created pick, so everything slides back one.

You'd think where the picks end up will be of concern to whoever trades them in

 

[perplexed]

If the dogs use 32 and 34 towards Pick 2, any later picks only come in 1 spot. Pick 2 is effectively a newly created pick, so everything slides back one.

You'd think where the picks end up will be of concern to whoever trades them in

I seriously doubt the Dogs would want 32 and 34, they would prefer one of those and a future second. In which case, picks 36 & 38 would stay where they were after the Darcy bid is matched.

 

[Prochard123]

I reckon the Bombers are a chance of getting 36 and 38 if they want them. Something like 56 (53 after Darcy match) and Future 2nd would give the pies enough points to match at 4 and a full 2022 set to trade back into 2021

Yeap exactly, this was exactly what I had in mind as well. They seem to be taking a few selections into the draft and 36 + 38 would greatly enhance their hand.

The same deal could work with Port Adelaide but obviously Essendon's future 2nd is more preferable.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

I seriously doubt the Dogs would want 32 and 34, they would prefer one of those and a future second. In which case, picks 36 & 38 would stay where they were after the Darcy bid is matched.

This would leave them sort on their Darcy points if he gets bid on at 2 (latest rumour). They would need 2 picks in the 30's to match imo.

 

[perplexed]

This would leave them sort on their Darcy points if he gets bid on at 2 (latest rumour). They would need 2 picks in the 30's to match imo.

If they trade out 23 they need to bring in about 640 points by my calcs to prevent pick 18 going backwards. If they trade in 34 (542 points), they could either cop a small deficit and move back a few picks or trade in a late pick to avoid it.

Also, whilst I think Geelong are a good option, I don't think this the certainty many seem to. Especially if the Darcy bid slips to 3 or 4.

 

[Lings of Geelong]

Yeap exactly, this was exactly what I had in mind as well. They seem to be taking a few selections into the draft and 36 + 38 would greatly enhance their hand.

The same deal could work with Port Adelaide but obviously Essendon's future 2nd is more preferable.

No doubt Port would like to get back into this draft. Problem with them is they have nothing to give back, and if we give up 36 and 38 we'll need at least 54 back to have enough points to match Pick 4.

 

[Prochard123]

No doubt Port would like to get back into this draft. Problem with them is they have nothing to give back, and if we give up 36 and 38 we'll need at least 54 back to have enough points to match Pick 4.

I think that's fine as the main component of the draft.

Just had a quick look, if Western Bulldogs uses 2 picks to match Daicos bid,

Our current picks + Port's current 62 = 1618

We need = 1627

Not sure why we did the 55 for St Kilda's future 4th deal haha, because if we gave 58 instead, we would now have enough points to do the above trade.

 

[VinnieB]

Clearly many draft watchers rate JHF higher. Who do Collingwood rate higher? Like you, I have no idea. And it no longer matters.

Which draft watchers? The one considered by many as the best rates Daicos 1.

 

[Lore]

Which draft watchers? The one considered by many as the best rates Daicos 1.

Who would that be?

 

[Lings of Geelong]

I think that's fine as the main component of the draft.

Just had a quick look, if Western Bulldogs uses 2 picks to match Daicos bid,

Our current picks + Port's current 62 = 1618

We need = 1627

Not sure why we did the 55 for St Kilda's future 4th deal haha, because if we gave 58 instead, we would now have enough points to do the above trade.

The Bombers trade is the one that makes the most sense to me. They have said they want to get into this draft, but don't have anything between 11 and 51. They have also said that their F2 is on the table. Plus there's every chance their F2 is in the 30's, so they'd effectively be giving up 30-odd and 53 for 36 + 38. Works for the Pies because they'd have enough to match Pick 4 (with bugger all left), and F1, F2, 3 x F3 and F4 to play with to get back into 2021.

 

[Prochard123]

The Bombers trade is the one that makes the most sense to me. They have said they want to get into this draft, but don't have anything between 11 and 51. They have also said that their F2 is on the table. Plus there's every chance their F2 is in the 30's, so they'd effectively be giving up 30-odd and 53 for 36 + 38. Works for the Pies because they'd have enough to match Pick 4 (with bugger all left), and F1, F2, 3 x F3 and F4 to play with to get back into 2021.

Yeah I agree.

Essendon's future 2nd will also allow us to trade our future 1st, whether we do that or not is a different question.

But ultimately Essendon's future 2nd + 3x future 3rds puts us in a great position to trade into this year's draft - hopefully in the early 20s, but if not late 20s is also fine.

 

[VinnieB]

Who would that be?

Twomey