Analysis 1 July 2021 - Celebrating 50 Years, to the Day, of China-Watching from Close Quarters … with nary a goalless one in all that time.

[TeeKray]

HERE WE GO AGAIN?

This current AFR opinion piece (edited down per BF posting rules) contains shades of my four-part OP to this thread (which I have edited up and fleshed-out since it was first posted in July).

Morrison turns China ‘threat’ into an election wedge.

Borrowing from the Coalition playbook of Menzies and Holt during the Vietnam War, the Prime Minister is putting domestic politics ahead of long-term policy for dealing with Beijing.

James Curran Columnist, Australian Financial Review, Nov 21, 2021

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-...threat-into-an-election-wedge-20211120-p59alf

Scott Morrison has taken a provocative approach to China that first appeared under Malcolm Turnbull, sharpened its edge and has now grabbed the loudspeaker.
His government makes foreign policy a critical wedge against Labor as the election approaches: tactics drawn from the Coalition playbook of Robert Menzies and Harold Holt during the Vietnam War. Opinion polls appear to confirm support for this recycling of the China “threat”, despite the Prime Minister’s adverse polling on a two-party preferred basis.
Disapprove as one may of this approach, it is unarguably consequential, and Australia may pay the cost for some time.

… The consequences belie Morrison’s rhetoric. A long-term policy for dealing with China does not exist. This as President Biden avoids the stampede towards a “new Cold War”, looks to limited co-operation with Beijing and tries to avoid military conflict.
Reflect, then, on the unforeseen consequences that can occur when a ruthless politician opts for headlines exploiting hostility to an Asian power.

… Yet the Morrison government now has an investment in continuing bad relations between the US and China, and with it the risk of an inadvertent or deliberate outbreak of war. It willingly dials itself into Washington’s martial calculations against the Chinese state. Canberra tumbles once more into an overexposed, lonely prominence.
A day after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stressed that competition with China need not lead to conflict, Defence Minister Peter Dutton basically committed Australia if there is a war over Taiwan. Whatever restraint there was in the government’s language on China is abandoned. No consideration is given to the catastrophic effects of any conflict on the region.

… Everything is now seen through a “China threat” prism. Relations with the Pacific, south-east Asian countries and Japan cannot be viewed on their own terms. All are submerged beneath the politicking on “pushing back’ against Beijing, on the apparent gratification of Australia being the model for “standing up’ to China.

… Morrison fails to understand that what appears tough on the home front can look in regional capitals to be a lack of sophisticated diplomacy. Look no further than when, before heading for Cornwall, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reminded his Australian visitor that China is always “going to be there”, that countries will have to deal with Beijing.

… Indeed, the China debate here, for all its claims to novelty, echoes more and more the rhetoric of the late 19th century and the 1960s, especially its obsession with “invasion”, “threat”, “subversion” and “containment”. Much of this flows from the continued emphasis that Australia now straddles the front line of a “new Cold War”. Well may we rightly express unease at how China uses its power, but Australia must find the courage to look into the mirror too.

Our whole approach to China is cringeworthy and very thinly veiled racism and frankly white supremacy. We're nowhere near as advanced a country as we think we are.

 

[Lockhart Road]

Our whole approach to China is cringeworthy and very thinly veiled racism and frankly white supremacy. We're nowhere near as advanced a country as we think we are.

We are certainly not ‘advanced’ with regard to political thinking. In fact, while everything changed for the better post Whitlam in China in 1971, it now has reverted in Canberra to pre-Whitlam China-bashing. There is nobody else to be bashed that is worth the votes an anti-China platform will produce.

Politicians in power prey on the ignorance of the average voter. They use whatever blunt instrument comes to hand. Today said blunt instrument is - again - China. ScoMo is trying to wield it, but not well. Dutton is trying to sharpen the blunt instrument, but not well … and exposing his historical ignorance in the process.

The dreaded 1930s

In part 3 of my OP I quoted Morrison’s speech to the Defence Academy in October 2020, in which he made pointed reference to the 1930s. Dutton’s speech today to the National Press Club in Canberra makes even more pointed reference to the 1930s. Dutton says he and ScoMo talk about the 1930s often. Lo, we may have discovered a main plank of their anti-Labor offensive leading up to the federal election early-ish next year.

To reinvent the 1930s and put that era out there as any plank in a Liberal & National / Country coalition policy is as rotten as it is warped, and I hope it serves to bring them down in punishment for their attempt to corrupt the intelligence, what there is of it, of the average voter. Trouble is, who to replace them? Australia, politically, is neck-deep in sheep dip.

Anyone reading the relevant sections of my OP will note that, in 1938, the founder of the Liberal coalition spent quite some time, while serving as Australia’s attorney-general, in Nazi Germany being corrupted by Goebbels’ dogma. Bob Menzies also got physically involved on his return in the raucously unpopular shipment of BHP pig iron (hence his moniker) to imperial Japan - who used it for exactly the same purposes that Defence Minister Dutton accuses Beijing of planning to put into action today.

An obscene stretch

Morrison and Dutton, when nebulously referring to 1930s ‘mistakes’, in fact mean ‘appeasement’ towards significant militarily ambitious enemies. Dutton, in some very ordinary oratory, purposely confuses Paul Keating with Neville Chamberlain. This means that he, and ScoMo, look upon themselves as the next Winston Churchill. Stretching it, obscenely, these two.

You will notice that both, when trying to use history as their blunt anti-China instrument, steer well clear of the Domino Theory / Vietnam saga.

Today’s story in ‘The Australian’ on Defence Minister Dutton’s speech appropriately (considering Dutton’s less than spectacular past as a policeman in Queensland) carried this byline:

ASHLEIGH GLEESON
CRIME REPORTER

If indeed …

If indeed our Club remains open-minded on China, with a view to resuming the annual match in Shanghai and all its commercial spin-off, we need to take particular note of, and closely watch, the shallow anti-China mentality at work in Canberra among people who know not what they are doing, who have never researched nor put their own hands on the subject they profess to know all about, and whose existence as political ‘leaders’ will be as short-lived as all of their predecessors … Menzies excepted.

Richo! Let’s get that Liberal coalition pledge in the bank and, with it, rebuild Alberton Oval Precinct quick smart. My guess is we have until 2025 to get it all done and dusted - coincidental with Chasing Greatness attaining its objectives.

 

[Festerz]

Morrison and Dutton, when nebulously referring to 1930s ‘mistakes’, in fact mean ‘appeasement’ towards significant militarily ambitious enemies. Dutton, in some very ordinary oratory, purposely confuses Paul Keating with Neville Chamberlain. This means that he, and ScoMo, look upon themselves as the next Winston Churchill. Stretching it, obscenely, these two.

Yep. And his fairy tale understanding of Chamberlain's pre-war political negotiations and the alternative options that realistically existed is extraordinarily superficial. That he makes comparisons to 1930s Europe without even a modicum of acknowledgement of the combination of complex political and economic events immediately preceding that decade displays his shallow intellect for all to see.

He is playing the khaki election card just months from the next Federal election for the most selfish and short sighted political reasons.

Sadly the damage done by this buffoon and his leader to our nation's standing in the Asia Pacific region will take years to rebuild. Our club's China relationship is all but dead.

Of course the fact that China remains Australia's largest export market seems to have been all but forgotten in the political point scoring.

 

[Lockhart Road]

Yep. And his fairy tale understanding of Chamberlain's pre-war political negotiations and the alternative options that realistically existed is extraordinarily superficial. That he makes comparisons to 1930s Europe without even a modicum of acknowledgement of the combination of complex political and economic events immediately preceding that decade displays his shallow intellect for all to see.

He is playing the khaki election card just months from the next Federal election for the most selfish and short sighted political reasons.

Sadly the damage done by this buffoon and his leader to our nation's standing in the Asia Pacific region will take years to rebuild. Our club's China relationship is all but dead.

Of course the fact that China remains Australia's largest export market seems to have been all but forgotten in the political point scoring.

When Keating labelled Dutton as a ‘dangerous personality’ he nailed it.

 

[Festerz]

When Keating labelled Dutton as a ‘dangerous personality’ he nailed it.

Yep. Although, it is stating the obvious to say that this has not just happened over night.

"For more than two decades Australia has needlessly made enemies and carelessly lost friends. Now, the more bipartisan our foreign and defence policies become, the more this is happening"

Australia diplomacy: how to lose friends and influence no one - Pearls and Irritations

Australia’s diplomatic missteps and lack of independence in foreign affairs and defence have brought a damaging loss of international trust. For more than two decades Australia has needlessly made enemies and carelessly lost friends. Now, the more bipartisan our foreign and defence policies...

johnmenadue.com

 

[Interstater]

Do the libs really think they can win Hindmarsh?
Its not exactly marginal.

 

[Janus]

Do the libs really think they can win Hindmarsh?
Its not exactly marginal.

Because all Port supporters live in the seat of Hindmarsh...

 

[Andre]

Do the libs really think they can win Hindmarsh?
Its not exactly marginal.

It's not about Hindmarsh. It's about how many times they can mention helping Women/Girls. Whether you want to argue it as a Libs have a women problem, or ALP has a men problem in regards gender / vote split, $15 million to push they are all about empowering and inspiring women and girls all over the national news is money they'd consider well spent. Whether they think that or not is irrelevant. Like all politicians perceptions trump reality, for good or bad and they want to shift perception of them not supporting women.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It's not about Hindmarsh. It's about how many times they can mention helping Women/Girls. Whether you want to argue it as a Libs have a women problem, or ALP has a men problem in regards gender / vote split, $15 million to push they are all about empowering and inspiring women and girls all over the national news is money they'd consider well spent. Whether they think that or not is irrelevant. Like all politicians perceptions trump reality, for good or bad and they want to shift perception of them not supporting women.

Its better PR than spending money on bloody car parks, especially only in marginal coalition seats.

I wonder if the carpark angle worked for the crows in the run up to the last election?

 

[Lockhart Road]

‘We have not seen the preparation’: Labor attacks Coalition after Dutton’s declaration on war

The following excerpt from the linked article is relevant, today being ANZAC Day.

On Monday Labor announced if elected it would spend $520m to boost veterans’ support, including clearing a backlog of 60,000 unresolved claims for payments.

My most recent claim for reimbursement of medical expenses incurred overseas over a six-month period, covering GP consultation fees and pharmaceutical expenses, took six months to settle and be reimbursed.

Six months.

Apologies from DVA were readily provided … yet it still took six months for a typical ANZAC claim for not a lot of money to be settled.

Dutton would have us readily go to war, yet would treat those who went to war for him as not worth consideration.

 

[1954]

‘We have not seen the preparation’: Labor attacks Coalition after Dutton’s declaration on war

The following excerpt from the linked article is relevant, today being ANZAC Day.

On Monday Labor announced if elected it would spend $520m to boost veterans’ support, including clearing a backlog of 60,000 unresolved claims for payments.

My most recent claim for reimbursement of medical expenses incurred overseas over a six-month period, covering GP consultation fees and pharmaceutical expenses, took six months to settle and be reimbursed.

Six months.

Apologies from DVA were readily provided … yet it still took six months for a typical ANZAC claim for not a lot of money to be settled.

Dutton would have us readily go to war, yet would treat those who went to war for him as not worth consideration.

When I was in the process of arranging a nursing home for my then 92 year old father ( a WW2 vet who served in 4 war zones with the RAAF, resulting in 7 service medals ), the Repat, the RSL and the DVA were all sensational, his DVA Gold Card was an extremely valuable asset.

Everything was approved by the DVA in less than 2 weeks for him to move into a fully funded government institution ( for the room ) plus access for the institution to his DVA pension for any extra expenses.
The DVA were then inexplicably over ruled by centrelink, which added 6 months to the process.

Legal advice I got at the time was that it had become a common situation with elderly vets where it was suggested the government of the day was basically waiting for the person to pass away.
Interestingly said government wasn't the libs, who are often accused of crapping on the working class, but the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd shambles.

Pretty poor treatment for servicemen and women, many of whom had signed up as teenagers, eg my old man was only 18 when he joined the RAAF, and less than 20 when he first drove his truck loaded with ammunition (including bombs) in convoys to supply the planes chasing Rommel across the western desert, and he had more than a few tight situations including having to reverse out of a minefield after the lead vehicle had been blown to pieces.

 

[Rexie J]

My late Father WW2 Vet (2/14th) and my late Father in Law (2/48th) were treated brilliantly by Vet Affairs as was my late Mother.

We now have my Mother in Law in Aged Care and once again Vet Affairs have been superb.

I wonder what the hell goes on within some of the bureaucracies such as Centrelink who have always been an absolute pain in the proverbial to deal with. In handling a family issue some time ago with C/L, one comment said it all, "I'm not here to tell you what you can do, I just fill out the forms".

 

[chiwigi]

My late Father WW2 Vet (2/14th) and my late Father in Law (2/48th) were treated brilliantly by Vet Affairs as was my late Mother.

We now have my Mother in Law in Aged Care and once again Vet Affairs have been superb.

I wonder what the hell goes on within some of the bureaucracies such as Centrelink who have always been an absolute pain in the proverbial to deal with. In handling a family issue some time ago with C/L, one comment said it all, "I'm not here to tell you what you can do, I just fill out the forms".

Shows it isn't the 'bureaucracy' that is the issue, but simply the way the government values the people needing help.

 

[chiwigi]

I can only repeat the response from Vet Affairs over a period of 20 plus years and now ongoing has shown considerable care and compassion for Vets and their immediate family.

So don't confuse Vet Affairs with Centrelink.

I'm agreeing with you Rexie.

It is not the organisations who are the issue, it is what the government does with the organisation.

eg. Conservative governments value Vet affairs, they don't give a s**t about single parents.

 

[Rexie J]

I'm agreeing with you Rexie.

It is not the organisations who are the issue, it is what the government does with the organisation.

Conservative governments value Vet affairs, they don't give a s**t about single parents.

Oops and foot in mouth. Apologies mate.

Sheesh, I stuffed that up.

 

[Portology]

I can only repeat the response from Vet Affairs over a period of 20 plus years and now ongoing has shown considerable care and compassion for Vets and their immediate family. Vet Affairs have always made it very clear what options and assistance is available and have been prompt in their srvices.

So don't confuse Vet Affairs with Centrelink.

Yeah Centrelink is a massive beast sometimes the message takes a long time to get from the tail to the head... years ago I was unemployed for over a year at one stage actually getting some Centerlink for a few months, then took up a contract role in Canberra working for... Centrelink. Ya think I could get them to stop paying me the benefit? So I took off from the office one lunch time around to the "retail shopfront" and queued up to beg some poor worn-out-by-terrible-stories deskocrat to "can you please please stop paying me because I bloody well work for you??". Bloke fell about the place laughing or crying not sure what. Maybe both. Probably had a lot worse cases than me to deal with most of the time.

 

[Rexie J]

Yeah Centrelink is a massive beast sometimes the message takes a long time to get from the tail to the head... years ago I was unemployed for over a year at one stage actually getting some Centerlink for a few months, then took up a contract role in Canberra working for... Centrelink. Ya think I could get them to stop paying me the benefit? So I took off from the office one lunch time around to the "retail shopfront" and queued up to beg some poor worn-out-by-terrible-stories deskocrat to "can you please please stop paying me because I bloody well work for you??". Bloke fell about the place laughing or crying not sure what. Maybe both. Probably had a lot worse cases than me to deal with most of the time.

 

[Lockhart Road]

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations | Australian foreign policy | The Guardian

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations​

Trip by Australia’s foreign affairs minister comes as tensions ease between two trading partners ….

 

[dirty2]

Get rid of the stupid Chinese tax on Australian wine and crap penny!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations | Australian foreign policy | The Guardian

Penny Wong to travel to China this week for 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations​

Trip by Australia’s foreign affairs minister comes as tensions ease between two trading partners ….

Turned on ABC News about 11.30 and on the screen they had written that Wong was going to China this week and I thought that is strange timing.

I didn't realise 21st December is the actual date of recognition. I thought it was early on in that 2 week period, when a couple of days after the election on the 2nd, that Gough and Lance Barnard were swore in as the Duumvirate government by the GG, and for 2 weeks they held every ministerial portfolio whilst all the final votes in some seats and senate races were declared. The full ministry was sworn in on the 15th according to Wiki.

 

[Lockhart Road]

Penny Wong raises human rights and trade with Chinese counterpart during historic talks​

First Australian minister to visit Beijing in three years raised sensitive issues, declaring region wants China and the US to manage tension.


Penny Wong raises human rights and trade with Chinese counterpart during historic talks


Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has raised human rights and “trade blockages” in talks with her Chinese counterpart in Beijing on the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Wong, the first Australian minister to visit China in three years, brought up the sensitive issues while declaring that small and medium-sized countries in the region wanted China and the US to responsibly manage their tensions.

Wong met with China’s foreign minister and state councillor, Wang Yi, in Beijing on Wednesday.

“When we last spoke, state councillor, you said a sound Australia-China relationship is not in contradiction with safeguarding national interests. I agree,” Wong said.

“We can grow our bilateral relationship and uphold both of our national interests if both countries navigate our differences wisely.

“With that in mind, today I would like to discuss in the course of this meeting several issues of importance for Australia, which include consular matters, trade blockages, human rights and the global rules and the norms that underpin our security and our prosperity.”

…. Wong said when Labor prime minister Gough Whitlam moved to establish diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China 50 years ago, it was “at a time when nations had to work together to prevent geopolitical competition from descending into conflict and chaos”.

She said the world now found itself “facing great challenges, including contest, climate and, of course, Covid-19”. Wong said dialogue “better enables us to manage these challenges”.

Wong called for “guardrails between the United States and China”.

“Middle and smaller powers of our region have a fundamental interest in pressing for responsible management of this issue,” Wong said during the talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.

“State councillor, we all share an interest in a region that respects sovereignty, that is peaceful, that is stable and is prosperous.”

Wong thanked Wang for his “personal contribution to the stabilisation of the relationship between our two countries this year”.

Earlier, Wang described Wong’s visit as having “great significance”.

He said the trip showed the Australian government “attaches importance to, and is positive about, upholding improving and developing China-Australia relations, which we highly appreciate”.“In the past few years, our relationship has encountered difficulties and setbacks,” Wang said. “This is what we do not want to see. The lessons must be learned.”

Wang said China and Australia had “highly complementary economic structures” with “no historical grievance or fundamental conflicts of interests”.

 

[Festerz]

Interesting (I thought anyway) short account about some of the logistics of Wong's trip to Beijing from one of the travelling journos.

Authoritarian China is a high-risk environment for hacking so we travelled with new phones, telephone numbers and laptops that would be discarded as soon as the trip ended. An RAAF crew slept overnight aboard the government jet, suffering the freezing cold to make sure the aircraft could not be interfered with in any way while in Beijing.

When the government’s plane touched down on the tarmac in Beijing at 11pm, it felt like the movie Contagion had come to life. Workers in hazmat suits were everywhere you looked.

On the drive to our accommodation, the Beijing streets were desolate and deserted; I could only imagine how busy and lively this megalopolis would be when there wasn’t a virus breakout.

On the same day Wong met her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, President Xi Jinping was hosting former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev at the same facility.

What I saw in 22 hours in Beijing with Penny Wong

When the call came – “Would you like to travel to Beijing with Penny Wong?” – the answer was an instant yes.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

China is floundering under a tidal wave of Covid cases, and is likely seeing one million infections and 5000 deaths every day as it grapples with what will likely be the largest outbreak the world has ever seen – all as the official tally screams of a cover up. The situation is only set to get worse as the virus sweeps the country of 1.4 billion people. The current wave may see the case rate rise to 3.7 million a day in January, according to London-based predictive health researcher Airfinity. There will likely be another surge in infections that will push the daily total to 4.2 million in March, they estimated. Meanwhile, the sweeping illness has “collapsed” China’s logistics and transportation sector. Viral footage taken in China shows huge piles of boxes lying in the street and packed into overflowing vehicles, indicating a serious backlog of deliveries. It adds to an already worrying shortage of pain and fever medications, and sparked concerns of a global shortage given China’s status as a global manufacturing hub.

 

[Lockhart Road]

Thanks a million sunshine.

 

[Handyandy]

How Australia defied US to sell wheat to a famine-starved China