Live Event 2021 AFL Draft live discussion

[Dr Tigris]

This thread made me laugh this morning.

Anyway, we've got some serious young talent in our midfield, Shai and Stack especially.

Got a few highish potential players, Dow and RCD IMHO. But they have a lot to prove.

Got a proven quality mid who is improving still Graham.

Got some others with time in the system that need to develop - Martyn etc.

So we start with a good solid young midfield, but nothing to win a premiership.

We picked up some decent midfield talent this year: Sonsie potential A grader (lot of work to do, but HEAP of talent), + Banks strong leadership, athleticism, kicking and was a mid but injured this year.

So If our development is good and and Stack and Sonsie makes it to their level then we start to have a side with 3 A grade mids + a good array of size speed and skilled B graders.

I'm definitely glass half full. From 3 premierships and few top 10 picks we've got a decent looking young midfield and potentially a seriously good one. If development is good then top 6 in the league, maybe top 4. That is if all goes right. To get that midfield to absolute top end we still need more. But we have years and FA/trading. Looking 4 years ahead it looks more likely than not that we will have a competitive midfield for contention.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

I think the ‘Uber elite’ mids show it early, but often that next rung down take a little time. Let’s not forget RCD only debuted this year and played 9 games averaging 15 touches. Did you know he was 33rd in the entire AFL for average centre clearances? And Dow is 2-years in and has played 7 games … I think he has shown some excellent signs. Him not playing when undermanned was probably more not to expose him too early than anything else given he’d played little footy.

If you think of A-grade mids in the last decade or so who’ve not shown elite traits or anything better than Dow or RCD in their first few seasons… here’s a few:

Jobe Watson
Jack Steele
Matthew Boyd
Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Darcy Parish
Luke Shuey
Jarryd Lyons
Elliott Yeo
Taylor Adams
Josh Dunkley
Touk Miller

Even Ollie Wines was playing SANFL 18-months ago.

So it’s way too early to consign RCD, Dow or Ross to busts or B-grade at best players. They might end up like that, but they deserve a lot more opportunity to prove themselves.




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Lachie Neale
Dayne Zorko
David Mundy
Robbie Gray
Mitch Duncan
GAJ
Jimmy Bartel
Dane Swan
Matt Priddis
Travis Boak
Tom Mitchell

Honestly, the list is endless, anyone putting a ceiling on our young kids after 2 or 3 Covid affected seasons has NFI.

 

[This Is Anfield]

Who is Adrian? Dodoro?

Non other!

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Hugo Ralphsmith is miles ahead of our draftees and will play most game this year imo.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Non other!

Oh Adrian McAdam you meant, got it.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

So leaving aside Dow given that I agree it's two early to make the call, this is how those above stacked up at year 3 after making debut which is where Ross is at (so I suppose RCD gets a bit of a pass):
Watson - Avg 22.8 disposals
Steele - Avg 23.5 disposals (and was at the 22.1 mark at year 3)
Boyd - Avg 19.9 disposals (though I'd argue Boyd isn't really a good example given the amount of time that has passed)
Kennedy - Avg 20.1 disposals
Parish - Avg 20.3 disposals
Shuey - Avg 23 disposals
Lyons - Avg 13.3 disposals (down from 16 his second year)
Yeo - Avg 14.9 disposals
Adams - Avg 19.2 disposals (down from 21.3 second year)
Dunkley - Avg 21.9 disposals
Miller - Avg 20.9 (down from 21.4 second year)
Wines - Avg 24.5 disposals

Our boys:
Ross - Avg disposals 14.4
RCD - Avg disposals 14.7* (first year since debut)

You can see why there's not exactly a wealth of positivity about those boys. From the examples you used, only Jarrod Lyons is below them at season 3 since debut and had shown more in his second year than either of our boys. I know statistics do not paint the whole picture, but most of the blokes above looked like pretty respectable footy players, if not were contributors for their respective sides. A fair few of them had to bide their time on a flank and collect disposals there and were still putting up those numbers.

In short I think, at least in my mind, I'd be making the call on Ross pretty soon. RCD would want to be getting a real move on in terms of his development this year.

GAJ after his third season was averaging 13.2 Disposals.

Jimmy Bartel after his third season was averaging 16.1 Disposals

Dane Swan after his third season was averaging 14.4 Disposals.


Handy players these blokes ending up being.

Too early to tell on our young mids, we need to give them a decent crack before knowing one way or the other.

 

[lumpinee]

View attachment 1290217

what else do i like about above stats ? Debuted rd.1, 4 months after being drafted
if theyre a ferrari ya dont waste ya time driving em thru the streets of East Keilor,nah nah...ya go straight to Beaconsfield pde.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

He was highly ranked because of the dearth of KPD in the draft.
Besides that, KPD's don't usually go in the first round .But hopefully he's as good as Jordan Ridley.

You might want to re assess your opinion on Gibcus as you can only go on how he's performed amongst his peers
Was switched onto Darcy after Darcy kicked 2 and kept him Goalless for rest of the match.
Small sample size but clearly a good sign nonetheless.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

You might want to re assess your opinion on Gibcus as you can only go on how he's performed amongst his peers
Was switched onto Darcy after Darcy kicked 2 and kept him Goalless for rest of the match.
Small sample size but clearly a good sign nonetheless.

I've no doubt he will be a gun but I feel we've missed out on a possible super gun mid to replace Cotchin.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

I've no doubt he will be a gun but I feel we've missed out on a possible super gun mid to replace Cotchin.

Only one player who could replace Cotch and we tried.

 

[Noidnadroj]

The giants apparently thinking about Gibcus (and Andrew) at live pick two gives me some confidence. Ditto trying to trade for the freo draft pick for Gibcus. (before reaching for aller)

A Moore or Weitering would be very handy - hopefully he has that type of ceiling (?)

Yep … some experts had Gibcus ranked 4. He was going top-10 in any draft in the history of drafts…..


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[Rioli2Rioli]

Yep … some experts had Gibcus ranked 4. He was going top-10 in any draft in the history of drafts…..


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If not for Callaghan Josh Gibcus would have been taken by GWS with pick #2 if not GC #3 that is 100% Guaranteed
We have a beauty

 

[Noidnadroj]

So leaving aside Dow given that I agree it's two early to make the call, this is how those above stacked up at year 3 after making debut which is where Ross is at (so I suppose RCD gets a bit of a pass):
Watson - Avg 22.8 disposals
Steele - Avg 23.5 disposals (and was at the 22.1 mark at year 3)
Boyd - Avg 19.9 disposals (though I'd argue Boyd isn't really a good example given the amount of time that has passed)
Kennedy - Avg 20.1 disposals
Parish - Avg 20.3 disposals
Shuey - Avg 23 disposals
Lyons - Avg 13.3 disposals (down from 16 his second year)
Yeo - Avg 14.9 disposals
Adams - Avg 19.2 disposals (down from 21.3 second year)
Dunkley - Avg 21.9 disposals
Miller - Avg 20.9 (down from 21.4 second year)
Wines - Avg 24.5 disposals

Our boys:
Ross - Avg disposals 14.4
RCD - Avg disposals 14.7* (first year since debut)

You can see why there's not exactly a wealth of positivity about those boys. From the examples you used, only Jarrod Lyons is below them at season 3 since debut and had shown more in his second year than either of our boys. I know statistics do not paint the whole picture, but most of the blokes above looked like pretty respectable footy players, if not were contributors for their respective sides. A fair few of them had to bide their time on a flank and collect disposals there and were still putting up those numbers.

In short I think, at least in my mind, I'd be making the call on Ross pretty soon. RCD would want to be getting a real move on in terms of his development this year.

I think it’s unfair to put averages from 3-years…. I think the relevant stat is averages from first 25 games (Ross) first 9 games (RCD) and first 7 games (Dow).

Then add a bit of leeway for any shortened games played during COVID year.

Then add a bit of leeway for Richmond’s low
possession game style.

Then add a bit of leeway for the fact Dow has played 5 x lower level games…yes, just 5.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not doing cartwheels over our players futures as I think each has question marks …. but I’d be confident in arguing no more than most players listed above after 25, 9 and 7 games respectively.



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[Muddiemoose]

Interesting listening to Clarke on Talking Tigers seemed like we definitely had a little bit of a shift in our recruiting strategy this time with us looking for better users of the ball instead of favouring towards the guys to apply that pressure

Indicates that the stand rule has really caught us on the back foot from a list management perspective

He also mentioned he was looking forward to seeing Dow, RCD ect to step up and that was also part of his rationale about picking Gibcus over Hobbs

 

[Muddiemoose]

I think we might regret not taking Hobbs.
Gibcus is a solid pick but he won't be the next Fyfe or Dusty.

People said the same thing about Carlton cutting our lunch and taking Liam Stocker who’s pre draft reports also look very similar to Hobb’s yet the pre draft ready made midfield bull is get to fire a shot or even really have a crack in one of the youngest midfields in the comp and been relegated to playing off half back

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

People said the same thing about Carlton cutting our lunch and taking Liam Stocker who’s pre draft reports also look very similar to Hobb’s yet the pre draft ready made midfield bull is get to fire a shot or even really have a crack in one of the youngest midfields in the comp and been relegated to playing off half back

This draft is a lot stronger though.

 

[Muddiemoose]

This draft is a lot stronger though.

Says who? And based on what?

 

[Muddiemoose]

This draft is a lot stronger though.

I mean seriously c’mon its as if they are talking about the same player

Ben Hobbs is simply one of the best midfielders in this year’s draft crop. He appears ready to play against men and would be a strong chance to do so at AFL level if he can get his body right early on with a full pre-season behind him. Stocker is an elite inside midfielder who bursts out of stoppages, is dangerous when drifting forward, tackles hard and takes marks around the ground. His ability to have an influence throughout four quarters is very good and expect him to be high on a lot of club's draft boards.

Liam Stocker is the best pure inside midfielder in the draft. Hobbs is as pure as they come on the inside, and he is someone who can slot straight into a midfield, not afraid to take some hits. He has areas to improve on, mainly outside the contest, but from an inside perspective, he will be a consistent ball winner and his effort will never waver. Expect him to land somewhere inside the Top 10 in the AFL Draft and be able to push for selection early in his debut season.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Says who? And based on what?

Says all the recruiters and experts based on their eyes.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Says all the recruiters and experts based on their eyes.

Gonna call bullshit on that one

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

I mean seriously c’mon its as if they are talking about the same player

Ben Hobbs is simply one of the best midfielders in this year’s draft crop. He appears ready to play against men and would be a strong chance to do so at AFL level if he can get his body right early on with a full pre-season behind him. Stocker is an elite inside midfielder who bursts out of stoppages, is dangerous when drifting forward, tackles hard and takes marks around the ground. His ability to have an influence throughout four quarters is very good and expect him to be high on a lot of club's draft boards.

Liam Stocker is the best pure inside midfielder in the draft. Hobbs is as pure as they come on the inside, and he is someone who can slot straight into a midfield, not afraid to take some hits. He has areas to improve on, mainly outside the contest, but from an inside perspective, he will be a consistent ball winner and his effort will never waver. Expect him to land somewhere inside the Top 10 in the AFL Draft and be able to push for selection early in his debut season.

Liam Stocker was pick 19 and he was rated slightly better than RCD by us.
Hobbs was talked as a possible top 6 pick but slid down.
I don't why you are comparing Stocker to Hobbs.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Gonna call bullshit on that one

It was well known to be a strong deep draft with brackets of 1/ Horne-Smith,Daicos,Darcy 2/ Callihan 3 / Quality through to pick 35

 

[Muddiemoose]

Liam Stocker was pick 19 and he was rated slightly better than RCD by us.
Hobbs was talked as a possible top 6 pick but slid down.
I don't why you are comparing Stocker to Hobbs.

Because their assessment and skill set by draft watches are almost identical yet you think not getting Hobbs will be regretted by the club

If anything it shows that the 2018 draft had a more talented top end of the best pure inside mid slid to 20 where the best inside mid of this draft slid to the mid teens

 

[Muddiemoose]

It was well known to be a strong deep draft with brackets of 1/ Horne-Smith,Daicos,Darcy 2/ Callihan 3 / Quality through to pick 35

You said it was a stronger draft than 2018 and all the recruiters said so

Got any quotes for that?

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Because their assessment and skill set by draft watches are almost identical yet you think not getting Hobbs will be regretted by the club

If anything it shows that the 2018 draft had a more talented top end of the best pure inside mid slid to 20 where the best inside mid of this draft slid to the mid teens

You said it was a stronger draft than 2018 and all the recruiters said so

Got any quotes for that?

Have you got any contrary evidence? It is a well known thing.
Let's move on.