Analysis 2021 draft thread

[martinson]

Lots of worse No 1 picks then Cam. Even at this stage.

Be interesting to see how we handle him this year.

Before he went down last year he was obviously being groomed for 20-30 minutes in the M/F.

With Zorko likely to spend less time M/F we need Cam and maybe Bailey to fill that gap. A fully fit Neale takes up a lot of the slack. And perhaps Starcevich and Dev. If they all stay on the park we should have a stronger M/F group overall. In a perfect world we could do with another really good M/F option.

 

[martinson]

There's often a bit of recency bias that comes into play when it comes to things like rating the current best player/team.

As far as impact on his team goes I'd have Voss as the best ever

Yep. I said Voss was the best I ever saw for impact when he was up and going. If he'd never broken his leg in one of the most sickening sights you'd see on a football field who knows because he was bone on bone in the knee by the early 2000's.

There's also a lot of romancing the past bias as well. I'm old enough to remember Barassi as a young kid and Petracca is an absolute dead ringer for him except a lot more skillful. Sticking to the bull impact type player Sam Kekovich was a sensation when he came along and lasted one season at a very high level. Phil Carman was unstoppable for a season and a half until they woke up he was easy to suck in and he didn't have the robust body of those other guys.

Petracca is in an era where the officiating picks up all the infringements so to me you can't do much about him when he's on song. Which he was in the games that counted this year.

 

[martinson]

Interesting read on how you can be the best player in he game at a relatively young age and gone not too long after.

forever.collingwoodfc.com.au/players/phil-carman/

 

[mattsmob]

Just to weigh in on the best player in the game right now topic, I genuinely don't have much of a gap between Petracca and Bont. I know he cops it a bit from opposition supporters but for a guy his size to move the way he does, the skills he has, the workrate both offensively and defensively. If I could add either player to our team right now it'd probably be Bontempelli.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I'd take Oliver personally

 

[Clarkythelion]

Yep. I said Voss was the best I ever saw for impact when he was up and going. If he'd never broken his leg in one of the most sickening sights you'd see on a football field who knows because he was bone on bone in the knee by the early 2000's.

There's also a lot of romancing the past bias as well. I'm old enough to remember Barassi as a young kid and Petracca is an absolute dead ringer for him except a lot more skillful. Sticking to the bull impact type player Sam Kekovich was a sensation when he came along and lasted one season at a very high level. Phil Carman was unstoppable for a season and a half until they woke up he was easy to suck in and he didn't have the robust body of those other guys.

Petracca is in an era where the officiating picks up all the infringements so to me you can't do much about him when he's on song. Which he was in the games that counted this year.

I agree Voss was the best I've seen, not necessarily in skills, not as in some mystical X factor but in leadership he had no peer. he was a player that could lift a team, fearless he put his both on the line when it was needed at the precise moment. Great players always want the ball as they think they can make a difference and Voss was. You could go to war with Vossy, he would be first out of the trenches charging the enemy, dragging back the wounded then charging again. Ive just not seen another player that could do that so effectively and regularly with just brut force. I hope he goes really well at Carlton.

 

[Nuggo]

Be interesting to see how we handle him this year.

Before he went down last year he was obviously being groomed for 20-30 minutes in the M/F.

With Zorko likely to spend less time M/F we need Cam and maybe Bailey to fill that gap. A fully fit Neale takes up a lot of the slack. And perhaps Starcevich and Dev. If they all stay on the park we should have a stronger M/F group overall. In a perfect world we could do with another really good M/F option.

It felt like Cam was in for a big year last preseason but was not to be. I guess that will be tempered a bit but still hoping for a strong showing in the second half of the year.

 

[pulpdriver]

Anyone here remember Aker?

 

[T Rick]

I reckon some are a bit harsh on Cam - I couldn't be happier that he is a Lion and really look forward to his progression over the next few years given that he is only 22. He worried me initially as a bit of a flight risk but with Fages and the culture we have developed that now seems most unlikely. I do think we need to temper our 2022 expectations given that he will be coming off the ACL injury - that normally takes a full season before a player gets back to 100%.

 

[POBT]

On Rayner, I think a fair few players in his draft cohort took a pretty big step forward in their development last season. Obviously Bailey and Starce on our own list are examples of that.

Rayner didn't get that opportunity due to injury. Obviously, we all had high hopes for him in the last preseason and still do. But the injury meant that no-one can call him a success or failure just yet. He simply lost the opportunity to prove his talent, when others in his year made strides.

While ACL recovery is a 2 year thing in some respects, I'm not sure Cam will be given that grace by footy followers, unfortunately. I don't think he needs to play like Petracca next year, but he probably does need to be more than what he showed in 2020, for the footy world not to doubt his worth.

 

[POBT]

I'd take Oliver personally

Melbourne have a hell of a 1-2 punch with him and Petracca but I agree. I think Oliver is the more valuable of the two.

 

[pulpdriver]

Melbourne have a hell of a 1-2 punch with him and Petracca but I agree. I think Oliver is the more valuable of the two.

That one is gonna be massively contentious. Oliver has just about the best hands I've seen of an inside player and he has a great burst, strength and has shown he can have a scoreboard impact.

However, playing Devil's advocate if they were to lose Oliver and let's say Brayshaw moved inside I think they'd loss less than they would if they were trying to replace Petracca who I don't see anyone on their list who can replace.

Both are sensational players and it's wonderful for Dees that they have two of the (arguably)best 5 mids in the comp but I tend to think what Chewie offers is much more difficult to replace than Oliver.

 

[POBT]

That one is gonna be massively contentious. Oliver has just about the best hands I've seen of an inside player and he has a great burst, strength and has shown he can have a scoreboard impact.

However, playing Devil's advocate if they were to lose Oliver and let's say Brayshaw moved inside I think they'd loss less than they would if they were trying to replace Petracca who I don't see anyone on their list who can replace.

Both are sensational players and it's wonderful for Dees that they have two of the (arguably)best 5 mids in the comp but I tend to think what Chewie offers is much more difficult to replace than Oliver.

My argument is that I don't think Melbourne can do what they do without Oliver. I think Oliver could go into any side and be just as effective. I think Petracca needs the right pieces around him to be at his best. Not saying Petracca would not be a gun in a poor side but I think his effectiveness would be greatly diminished.

The other factor that maybe gets overlooked sometimes is that they get to rove to one of the best ruckmen in history. They've got a head start on most opposition teams every week which allows them to roll the dice on the high risk - high reward play that clubs with mere mortal ruckmen can't. It is worth pondering what Bont could do if roving to Gawn or NicNat.

 

[pulpdriver]

My argument is that I don't think Melbourne can do what they do without Oliver. I think Oliver could go into any side and be just as effective. I think Petracca needs the right pieces around him to be at his best. Not saying Petracca would not be a gun in a poor side but I think his effectiveness would be greatly diminished.

The other factor that maybe gets overlooked sometimes is that they get to rove to one of the best ruckmen in history. They've got a head start on most opposition teams every week which allows them to roll the dice on the high risk - high reward play that clubs with mere mortal ruckmen can't. It is worth pondering what Bont could do if roving to Gawn or NicNat.

Completely reasonable contention. I think Oliver's role and skillset does make him more easily transferable to any side but I also think Tracca has passed the period where he's relying on others to allow him to be his best. He's shown he can be a massive ball winner in the contest; virtually half of his possessions he wins himself from contested situations but his h/f craft is just something else and that kind of impact is simply not transferable.

 

[pulpdriver]

My argument is that I don't think Melbourne can do what they do without Oliver. I think Oliver could go into any side and be just as effective. I think Petracca needs the right pieces around him to be at his best. Not saying Petracca would not be a gun in a poor side but I think his effectiveness would be greatly diminished.

The other factor that maybe gets overlooked sometimes is that they get to rove to one of the best ruckmen in history. They've got a head start on most opposition teams every week which allows them to roll the dice on the high risk - high reward play that clubs with mere mortal ruckmen can't. It is worth pondering what Bont could do if roving to Gawn or NicNat.

More I think on this post and hypotheticals I'm kinda mad at Dogs. Their position on rucks is nothing short of disgusting.

 

[martinson]

I think Petracca is really special. Can do the bullocking work and inside gets but able to do the half a dozen magic things a game that other players just aren't capable of. Obviously you'd love either he or Oliver but for me Petracca gives your team the X Factor and the hard work ethic as well.

The way he is now I think he'd stand out in any team but having Gawn as well is what really allows them to find that extra gear when they're under pressure.

 

[jjami15]

I think Petracca is really special. Can do the bullocking work and inside gets but able to do the half a dozen magic things a game that other players just aren't capable of. Obviously you'd love either he or Oliver but for me Petracca gives your team the X Factor and the hard work ethic as well.

The way he is now I think he'd stand out in any team but having Gawn as well is what really allows them to find that extra gear when they're under pressure.

X factor yes but I wouldn’t go so far as saying the work ethic. I would go the Bont personally. I didn’t realise how good he was until watching him live a few years ago. He just glides across the ground and what he does better than the other two is his defensive mindset and getting back to assist. Petracca had a blinder of a year a year, Oliver also improved but the Bont has been more consistent IMO. He’s not as flashy as the other two and that’s why they might stand out at the moment but he is all class.

 

[pulpdriver]

X factor yes but I wouldn’t go so far as saying the work ethic. I would go the Bont personally. I didn’t realise how good he was until watching him live a few years ago. He just glides across the ground and what he does better than the other two is his defensive mindset and getting back to assist. Petracca had a blinder of a year a year, Oliver also improved but the Bont has been more consistent IMO. He’s not as flashy as the other two and that’s why they might stand out at the moment but he is all class.

Trac had a very good year last year too, he was AA. He just had an exceptionally good year this year. When you're instrumental to a premiership you're gonna be talked about.

 

[M Malice]

Just a delightful appetizer for the next draft.

I asked a prominent draft watcher (thanks Davo-27 ) to compare this years top drafted mids to a few from the 2022 crop, this was the reply >


It isn't fair to compare them at this stage because they haven't played the big pressure games in their draft year that make or break them, but if I had to guess how they would compare in the future if everything goes as planned etc, I really like next years top 5 moreso than I liked this years top 5, I'm a fan of how Wardlaw plays and how silky clean Ashcroft is and the workman like attitude of D'Aloia, then you have the skills on the outside of Tsatas and if he isn't allergic to contested footy he could be great too, at this stage I like...

=1. Wardlaw
=1. Ashcroft
3. JHF
4. Daicos
5. D'Aloia
6. Callaghan
7. Tsatas

That's my view from pre-season before they are really tested during their draft year.

 

[mattsmob]

Just a delightful appetizer for the next draft.

I asked a prominent draft watcher (thanks Davo-27 ) to compare this years top drafted mids to a few from the 2022 crop, this was the reply >


It isn't fair to compare them at this stage because they haven't played the big pressure games in their draft year that make or break them, but if I had to guess how they would compare in the future if everything goes as planned etc, I really like next years top 5 moreso than I liked this years top 5, I'm a fan of how Wardlaw plays and how silky clean Ashcroft is and the workman like attitude of D'Aloia, then you have the skills on the outside of Tsatas and if he isn't allergic to contested footy he could be great too, at this stage I like...

=1. Wardlaw
=1. Ashcroft
3. JHF
4. Daicos
5. D'Aloia
6. Callaghan
7. Tsatas

That's my view from pre-season before they are really tested during their draft year.

The thing I'm most excited about Ashcroft is it feels like he can do everything you want from a midfielder. You hear people talk about how good he is as a contested, clearance machine then hear other people talk about how silky and clean his skills are. Personally his burst from a stoppage has impressed me, really has a nice change of pace, maybe not the top end speed of Bailey but has a similar burst and change of direction.
One thing I'm keen to see next season is how damaging he is a forward, can hit the scoreboard from the midfield but how dangerous is he resting forward.

 

[bungalow_bill]

The potential combination of McCluggage Rayner Bailey Ashcroft Berry in the mid field will be something else

 

[Warwick]

Yep. I said Voss was the best I ever saw for impact when he was up and going. If he'd never broken his leg in one of the most sickening sights you'd see on a football field who knows because he was bone on bone in the knee by the early 2000's.

There's also a lot of romancing the past bias as well. I'm old enough to remember Barassi as a young kid and Petracca is an absolute dead ringer for him except a lot more skillful. Sticking to the bull impact type player Sam Kekovich was a sensation when he came along and lasted one season at a very high level. Phil Carman was unstoppable for a season and a half until they woke up he was easy to suck in and he didn't have the robust body of those other guys.

Petracca is in an era where the officiating picks up all the infringements so to me you can't do much about him when he's on song. Which he was in the games that counted this year.

That half season or so when Koutoufides was at his peak was pretty special as well. He was one of the earliest I remember in the mid 90s that seemed unstoppable as that bigger midfielder.

Would have been the perfect modern footballer.

 

[pulpdriver]

Any bitching, scouring or scheming is simply not gonna be worth it. I'm too tired and it's a year away.
Welcome, Will.

 

[dlanod]

That half season or so when Koutoufides was at his peak was pretty special as well. He was one of the earliest I remember in the mid 90s that seemed unstoppable as that bigger midfielder.

Would have been the perfect modern footballer.

Kouta was mental when he went into the middle. Almost unstoppable. I don't remember a heap of 90s football but he stuck in my head like no one else bar maybe Chris Grant (we got a lot of Dogs' games because IIRC it was Sunday arvo that was always live on FTA).

 

[bungalow_bill]

Leigh Matthews once said that a team of Kouta's would be the perfect team