A pandemic and lockdowns isn’t a recession based on low confidence. It’s pointless treating it the same.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Like the real estate industry could be trusted to lie straight in bd
There is nothing stopping you accessing the data that underpins the discussion to understand for yourself.
and certainly interpret it differently to industries with warped motivation
How can you know you don't like broccoli if you've never tried it?
Just interprete it.
interpolate? My point is there’s a whole load of dross published in this space
I have been hearing people saying property prices were too high and wait for them to come down back in the early 00's.I remember reading reddit threads on this topic in around 2011. I wonder how many people have been “holding out” for the crash.
I have been hearing people saying property prices were too high and wait for them to come down back in the early 00's.
I even remember some economist in the mid 00's spruiking that house prices are going to fall 40% and had a bet to walk to Mt Kosciuszko (which he lost). He was so certain he even sold his house expecting to buy into the market when the crash happens.
That was back in the mid 00's where I think the average house price was something like 350k~400k. That just looks incredibly cheap now.
A house next to me was sold for $1.1 million the other week. It is a 3 bed house in the outer east suburbs on a 600sqm block. It is in very good condition, but nothing like a fancy mansion and about 25 years old. That price is insane.
Too many vested interests and fingers in the pie within governments, banks, developers, investors, elites etc for any large scale housing collapse. Our economy/banking system is largely based on housing, whether ownership or investing. Just have a look what’s happened the past 18 months, a global pandemic, countries shutting down, massive disruption everywhere, huge uncertainty, the worst event in our lifeline, probably since WWII. In theory all the hallmarks and factors for a massive housing collapse but bizarrely enough the exact opposite has occurred. If the past 18 months hasn’t seen prices drop wtf will? Banks with the encouragement of government have done their bit by keeping the official rates at record lows (for the foreseeable future as well) to keep the market stimulated and have been flexible with customers regarding repayments, loan deferals etc. Fed govt has thrown plenty of money around via jobkeeper and jobseeker. Without this I’d say a lot more people would have lost their homes sending the market and confidence downward. I know quite a few people that took advantage of the low rates and purchased properties up in Queensland, Noosa, GC, Sunshine Coast etc. Prices have jumped around 30% over the past 18 months in those regions. They aren’t likely to come down either given that a lot of people are moving up there for work/lifestyle/fed up reasons. There’s bugger all rentals available up there further inflating the market. Eventually pretty much overseas migrants will replace those that have left Vic and NSW once borders re open keeping housing on the up in those states. One issue I can see is housing materials shortages and world wide supply chain issues slowing down construction of new dwellings. This will probably create an illusion of scarcity futher driving prices up. Great for owners and investors, sh*t for those that want in.
I mean you are absolutely right.
The government has over the period of 20 years allowed housing to now be worth in excess 9 trillion dollars. Let that sink in. 9 TRILLION dollars. This is almost 5 x our national GDP for gods sake.
It is worth more than the ASX and Superannuation combined and better yet there is ZERO Housing policy in relation to affordable housing. Let that also sink in. There is effectively zero policy from State and Federal ensuring housing affordability for people in 10, 20, 30 years time. Australia biggest monetary value has ZERO bus driver.
It is absolute insanity what is occurring and you are 100% correct that vested interests are at play. Any common sense country would be making this issue numero uno yet here we are with the Australian Government doing absolutely sweet fu** all about it, if anything they are actively ensuring it continues to increases.
I think Darwin had a crash around that a decade or or so ago. But yeah.haha fall by 40% - yeah dont think he was good at his job, not even close.
Do people expect if/when there is a downturn that $1m properties will be available for $600k? If so, then ive got bad news for you
I think Darwin had a crash around that a decade or or so ago. But yeah.
I found a youtube video of a presentation 10 years ago I remember seeing. Effectively telling people to "hold out". In hindsight if people took that advice at the time they would probably be regretting it.I remember reading reddit threads on this topic in around 2011. I wonder how many people have been “holding out” for the crash.
I found a youtube video of a presentation 10 years ago I remember seeing. Effectively telling people to "hold out". In hindsight if people took that advice at the time they would probably be regretting it.
What I find wrong with his advice is he appears to be advising first home buyers to "play" the market. For people to try to buy at a time when the prices are lowest. While he may be having good intentions in advising this to save people money, it can actually be bad advice as we have seen with house prices over the last ten years.
The time to buy a house imo is when you can comfortably make the loan repayments factoring in increases of interest rates. Admittedly it's harder for a lot of people to meet this criteria these days.