Strategy 2022 Fantasy Planning Thread

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Keystone agony]

Salary cap: 13m > 14.8m
Magic number: 7669 > 8386

Biggest jump there's ever been from one year to the next by some distance

If those numbers are correct this year is a bit easier than last, usually make it easier every year

Last year 1695 points to be selected for round 1

1765 points this year for Round 1

 

[Keystone agony]

Just to clear up the ruck debate and it always a matter of who you come up against (ie English/Stef and C.Graham/Burgess vs M.Gawn as opponents)

This was last year's results

I've been following it for years and always Nic Nat and Gawn are tough opponents

It can change. Stef Martin use to be difficult from memory back in the day he could barely move in 2020. Rucks had field days against the dogs and suns

Obviously something that I noticed last year which needs to be considered is against easy rucks/opponents teams were deciding to rest say a Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

and play a L.Jackson a bit more in the CBAs. That's a separate component but certainly worth considering

 

[kozi]

If those numbers are correct this year is a bit easier than last, usually make it easier every year

Last year 1695 points to be selected for round 1

1765 points this year for Round 1

Yep. 12% cap increase with only a 9.3% increase of prices

We're having 2.7% more fun this year baby! (or 2.7% less fun looking at it the other way of it becoming slightly easier for the casuals)

 

[TedDougChris]

Yep. 12% cap increase with only a 9.3% increase of prices

We're having 2.7% more fun this year baby! (or 2.7% less fun looking at it the other way of it becoming slightly easier for the casuals)

2.7% more cockups here !!!

 

[happy_eagle]

It shouldn't, unless there is an injury discount or they've done one of their 'fairness' adjustments, which should be rare.

Is this because averages are rounded to 1 decimal rather than their true figure ?

 

[Cotchy9]

So it’s opening this week?

 

[Shadow89]

So it’s opening this week?

Wouldn't think so - usually after Christmas

They also usually go through each team's prices one by one in reverse ladder order, and then they open for the new year (usually second or third week of Jan from memory)

 

[Keystone agony]

View attachment 1296832

Is this because averages are rounded to 1 decimal rather than their true figure ?

Yes rounded to nearest 1000 which is the reasoning for slight deviation in MN

 

[happy_eagle]

Wouldn't think so - usually after Christmas

They also usually go through each team's prices one by one in reverse ladder order, and then they open for the new year (usually second or third week of Jan from memory)

Last year I think they opened before Christmas, but that was a break in usual tradition.

 

[Keystone agony]

Wouldn't think so - usually after Christmas

They also usually go through each team's prices one by one in reverse ladder order, and then they open for the new year (usually second or third week of Jan from memory)

Last year I believe it was before?

Warnie in latest pod said before for this year I believe. We all know the prices now and other sites have them up so I'd expect them to release fairly soon.

I'm expecting next weekend and then they talk about it Monday 20th maybe

 

[Shadow89]

Will be very happy if it is before Christmas, but I'm just thinking about the last few years (prior to covid) and they always did a little countdown of every team's individual fantasy prices.

All they've released is the Top 10 premos for each position, and told us the magic number. Us obsessed people can figure it out haha, but there hasn't actually been a full spreadsheet of every single player dropped yet (that I'm aware of?)

EDIT: Just looked, and yep, dropped on 23rd Jan in 2019 and 25th Jan in 2020 (pasted screenshots of Google pages as AFL pages don't show dates) -

AFL Fantasy launches for 2019 with new-look site

Brand new site arrives with a raft of improvements across the two games

www.afl.com.au

AFL Fantasy is back! Massive prizes on offer for 2020

Set up your leagues and start creating your team with over $130k in prizes on offer

www.afl.com.au

 

[Wazzy36]

Warnie on the new Pod says that this year should start before christmas.

 

[Shadow89]

Warnie on the new Pod says that this year should start before christmas.

Well, can't argue with that! Awesome

 

[Keystone agony]

Teams looking very similar already

Outside of these hard to see what else I'm picking (Rucks seem most variable for me besides changing a 110 premo mid for another 110 premi mid) which is same same anyway

Lloyd
Whitfield
Crisp
Sicily
Milera

Wines/Titch/Macrae
Neale
Yeo
Serong
Danger
M.Crouch
Rowell
JHF
N.Daicis
J.Ward

Gawn
Grundy
ROB
Marshall
S.Draper
Witts

Dunkley
Duncan
Degoey
Taranto
A.Treloar
Heeney
Dusty
Butters
E.Hollands

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I don't think you can back Steele Touk and Lyons in

Thats a lot of money

Lyons will have Neale back for most of the year

Touk will be hoping to have Rowell and co back and not a one man show

Steele is the only I can see going back to back

Yep I think you only take 1 of the 3 as a lock it and leave captain.

Of the three I'm leaning towards Steele at this stage also.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

How about Willie Rioli?

I guess we’ll find out when AF opens later this week though

Does it count as missing games when you're banned?

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Teams looking very similar already

Outside of these hard to see what else I'm picking (Rucks seem most variable for me besides changing a 110 premo mid for another 110 premi mid) which is same same anyway

Lloyd
Whitfield
Crisp
Sicily
Milera

Wines/Titch/Macrae
Neale
Yeo
Serong
Danger
M.Crouch
Rowell
JHF
N.Daicis
J.Ward

Gawn
Grundy
ROB
Marshall
S.Draper
Witts

Dunkley
Duncan
Degoey
Taranto
A.Treloar
Heeney
Dusty
Butters
E.Hollands

Lloyd probably a miss for mine due to cost and form last year. I like Short as a pick instead. No Houli he racks it up.
Yeo too much of an injury risk but if he lights up preseason you'd have to pick him. Same goes for M.Crouch and Rowell.
Serong I just don't see it yet. Priced highly so I don't see him as the "bargain" everyone else is seeing. Will still be inconsistent and capable of the 70-80 'rest' game.
Heeney will forever be firmly in my never ever ever again list.
DeGoey/Dusty are close behind.

The rest I agree with and are in the mix.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Yep. 12% cap increase with only a 9.3% increase of prices

We're having 2.7% more fun this year baby! (or 2.7% less fun looking at it the other way of it becoming slightly easier for the casuals)

I spend way too much time on fantasy footy as is, but the more cash they give us, the more I want a second type of game that has less budget (and less or no prizes if need be).

Give ~ 2 thirds of the salary cap. Would be interesting to not be able to field all guns and rookies for a change.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Is Worpel an option this year? Might get used differently under Mitchell.

Could be an option over M.Crouch. Similarly priced.

Edit: Ditto McGrath looks value around $700k (on drawing board anyway). Scoring is a bit volatile still but could average 100 odd.

 

[kozi]

Been messing around on dtlive drawing board to see how noticeable the extra $ available is

Hall, Crisp, Stew, Milera, 270, 270, (200,200)

Steele, Titch, Neale, Serong, M Crouch, Rowell, Horne, Daicos (200,200,200)

Darcy, Preuss (200)

Duncan, Dunkley, Treloar, T Thomas, 270, 270 (200,200)


10-6-6 split without skimping that much on ubers (depends if you reckon for example Grundy>Darcy or Taranto>Trealor is worth it). That appears to be noticeably stronger than the last few years

 

[Cotchy9]

With how forthcoming he was with wanting to trade him, and them going the full rebuild, anyone worried how Sam Mitchell will use Tom Mitchell? I mean he would find the footy anywhere he plays, but there may be players cheaper than Titch with more upside perhaps?

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Sounds like Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

will be a POD from the talk so far.

Heard he’s fitter and bigger than ever. Very hungry guy, could go another level

 

[Zevon]

With how forthcoming he was with wanting to trade him, and them going the full rebuild, anyone worried how Sam Mitchell will use Tom Mitchell? I mean he would find the footy anywhere he plays, but there may be players cheaper than Titch with more upside perhaps?

I have it on very good authority that Sam walked up to Tom on day 1 after the trade period and said “now listen here Mitchell, you don’t like me and I don’t like you… I made gathering 40 pointless possessions a game cool way before you came along. You and that other prick Chad Wingard (that I also had to keep against my will) will be rotating between full back and the bench this year while I give young James Worpel your full time spot in the mids. Enjoy playing on Tom Lynch LOSER.” True story I swear.

But yeah in all seriousness you make a good point. Who knows how that could pan out and what sort of effect it could have.

 

[Keystone agony]

Lloyd probably a miss for mine due to cost and form last year. I like Short as a pick instead. No Houli he racks it up.
Yeo too much of an injury risk but if he lights up preseason you'd have to pick him. Same goes for M.Crouch and Rowell.
Serong I just don't see it yet. Priced highly so I don't see him as the "bargain" everyone else is seeing. Will still be inconsistent and capable of the 70-80 'rest' game.
Heeney will forever be firmly in my never ever ever again list.
DeGoey/Dusty are close behind.

The rest I agree with and are in the mix.

Yeh don't mind Short just prefer the others and can't see that changing. He avg 95.2 without Houli last year and avg 93.4 for the year.

Lloyd - Just love his safety of scoring and durability, similar to Short. I can't see myself not picking him

Serong - Just think he's close to freos number 2 midfielder now behind BrayshW and we've seen his PPM so high, apparently becoming a really good endurance runner so I expect continued increase in TOG. Only priced at 82 ish


M.Crouch - Purely depends on PS, he needs to play a game in PS. Avg 105+ for the last 4 years he's played. Priced 77.

Yeo - Come back early in PS and training really well. Avg 107 (2018), 103 (2019) as non injury interrupted year. Priced 83

Rowell- I'm a little less convinced by. Think he gets a tonne of midfield time 2nd behind Touk as their starting mid. I didn't start him last year at a similar price and never brought him in last year either. I think he had a soft draw for his big scores early in 2020, I believe they won a few of those games. Priced 55 though 80 is a pass mark.

Is Worpel an option this year? Might get used differently under Mitchell.

Could be an option over M.Crouch. Similarly priced.

Edit: Ditto McGrath looks value around $700k (on drawing board anyway). Scoring is a bit volatile still but could average 100 odd.

Getting a bit worried about Worpel. I really rated him before ehe was drafted and then was waiting for that mid time which led to a breakout and B+F. Last year was a strange one. Hawks trialling a few through the middle. Titch, JOM, Worpel, Wingard, Nash, Newcombe and newly drafted Ward. This isn't including Shiels who I thinks going to play a different role.

Mcgrath I like aswell. Not as much as the Yeo, Serong, M.Crouch group but his issue is also alot of mouths to feed at Essendon

Parish
Zerrett
Stringer CBAs
Caldwell
D.Shiel
Mcgrath
Langford
N.Cox
Hobbs (Drafted as a pure mid)[/QUOTE]

 

[Cotchy9]

Sounds like Clayton Oliver will be a POD from the talk so far.

Heard he’s fitter and bigger than ever. Very hungry guy, could go another level

Sounds like Clayton Oliver will be a POD from the talk so far.

Heard he’s fitter and bigger than ever. Very hungry guy, could go another level

Definitely keen. Meets some of my main selection criteria’s for premiums. Durability. Consistency and locked into CBA’s