Club Focus St Kilda 2022 - Cordy, Phillipou, Van Es, Hotton, Keeler

[Jeremias]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[puppy_dog7]

Yeah you’re relying on one of Gresham, Clark, Byrnes and Bytel becoming elite players saying internally the club rates highly, which is what every club does with their players.

I’m saying those players are unlikely to become top elite mids of the competition, not impossible but unlikely.

Steele was unlikely until he was.
Parish was unlikely until this year.
Neale was unlikely until he was.
Even Petracca had question marks On whether he could be a mid until last year.
Lyons was even let go by Adelaide and GC.

My point is it takes time for most players.

you say we need top draft picks of which I say Gresh 24yrs and Clark 22yrs were, as well as Coffield (questions over whether he becomes a mid). But then you say it’s unlikely they can become top line players. You then scoff at Byrnes and Bytel who were both picked later but have shown plenty of promise, because they’re not top picks.

Sinclair was our 2nd best player this year after being a rookie.
Marshall is arguably our most important player and was a rookie.
Wilkie is a very good player and hasn’t missed a game, he was a rookie.

It’s hard to predict with some players, but the law of averages and our recent draft strike rate (with limited picks) has been very pleasing and suggests that it’s only a matter of time that at least 1 player steps up in that midfield group

 

[Blackas87]

Steele was unlikely until he was.
Parish was unlikely until this year.
Neale was unlikely until he was.
Even Petracca had question marks On whether he could be a mid until last year.
Lyons was even let go by Adelaide and GC.

My point is it takes time for most players.

you say we need top draft picks of which I say Gresh 24yrs and Clark 22yrs were, as well as Coffield (questions over whether he becomes a mid). But then you say it’s unlikely they can become top line players. You then scoff at Byrnes and Bytel who were both picked later but have shown plenty of promise, because they’re not top picks.

Sinclair was our 2nd best player this year after being a rookie.
Marshall is arguably our most important player and was a rookie.
Wilkie is a very good player and hasn’t missed a game, he was a rookie.

It’s hard to predict with some players, but the law of averages and our recent draft strike rate (with limited picks) has been very pleasing and suggests that it’s only a matter of time that at least 1 player steps up in that midfield group

Totally agree, I had Essendon bottom 4 at the start of the year until Parish became one top players in the league. I didn’t see that coming.

who knows who the next unlikely player to rise up will be, could be Jade Gresham, could be Worpell from Hawthorn, could be Tom Sparrow from Melbourne. All those clubs will be internally backing their players to become top players.

I say it’s unlikely to become top players, I’m talking about the very top elite players that are in Brownlow contention because it’s unlikely majority of players will ever become that good. There’s 700-800 players in the league, only 20 players can be the best 20 players in the league at any given time.

At Melbourne I’m excited about how good Tom Sparrow is, but I don’t think he’ll ever be one of the elite players of the comp, maybe he will one day but law of averages say it’s unlikely.

just because Steele broke out, Parish Broke out, Petracca broke out becoming elite players doesn’t means everyone is going to break out and become an elite player.

Most of the talented young players will end up having solid careers like a Jack Viney or a Brad Crouch which are good players.

most first round picks also won’t end up in that top elite category, your best chance of getting a players like that is having multiple cracks at it.

just like I said earlier the top teams all seem to have 2 midfielders in the elite category and I just think it’ll make a huge difference to St Kilda if they could have a 2nd midfielder where you could say I reckon he could win the Brownlow this year.

As I said earlier I had Essendon in the bottom 4 for 2021 and happy to admit I didn’t see Parrish breaking out to where I’m pretty high on what Essendon can do.

I dont have the Saints that low, early prediction I have them in the top 8, if Gresham breaks out and becomes one the top mids in the game I’ll admit I didn’t see it coming but it could push St Kilda into the top 4. Tom Mitchell though would of been a guaranteed elite mid.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Totally agree, I had Essendon bottom 4 at the start of the year until Parish became one top players in the league. I didn’t see that coming.

who knows who the next unlikely player to rise up will be, could be Jade Gresham, could be Worpell from Hawthorn, could be Tom Sparrow from Melbourne. All those clubs will be internally backing their players to become top players.

I say it’s unlikely to become top players, I’m talking about the very top elite players that are in Brownlow contention because it’s unlikely majority of players will ever become that good. There’s 700-800 players in the league, only 20 players can be the best 20 players in the league at any given time.

At Melbourne I’m excited about how good Tom Sparrow is, but I don’t think he’ll ever be one of the elite players of the comp, maybe he will one day but law of averages say it’s unlikely.

just because Steele broke out, Parish Broke out, Petracca broke out becoming elite players doesn’t means everyone is going to break out and become an elite player.

Most of the talented young players will end up having solid careers like a Jack Viney or a Brad Crouch which are good players.

most first round picks also won’t end up in that top elite category, your best chance of getting a players like that is having multiple cracks at it.

just like I said earlier the top teams all seem to have 2 midfielders in the elite category and I just think it’ll make a huge difference to St Kilda if they could have a 2nd midfielder where you could say I reckon he could win the Brownlow this year.

As I said earlier I had Essendon in the bottom 4 for 2021 and happy to admit I didn’t see Parrish breaking out to where I’m pretty high on what Essendon can do.

I dont have the Saints that low, early prediction I have them in the top 8, if Gresham breaks out and becomes one the top mids in the game I’ll admit I didn’t see it coming but it could push St Kilda into the top 4. Tom Mitchell though would of been a guaranteed elite mid.

Well Gresham getting Brownlow votes in 4 of his last 8 completed games (at 22/23yo) and starting this year with 28 and then 29 disposal games- off reduced game-time and when well short of full match-fitness- suggests that it would hardly be some great stretch for him to end up being a guy that has high Brownlow finishes.

He’s an elite talent, who had over 60 shots for goal at 20yo, in just his 2nd season (kicking 30, including 5 in a losing team against Richmond, a month before their first flag), then followed it up with a 35 goal season at 21yo, despite starting to play a lot more midfield minutes (6 games of between 23 and 26 disposals), including another bag of 6 against Richmond, and games of 26 and a goal, 25 and 2, 24 and 2, 23 and 2, and 19 and 4.

Hugely promising footy for a guy of 20/21yo, who was nowhere near elite fitness.

Then the following year (2019) was basically a transition year, where he played midfield full time, but didn’t have the fitness to dominate, but as I said in my previous post, he lost a chunk of weight going into the following season and looked very much like having a breakout year in both these last two years, until season derailing injuries.

So I don’t really see why it would have been any great shock for him to have stepped right up to be a gun in the midfield. It looked to just be a matter of time and fitness before he became a gun, goalkicking mid. Albeit with scrappy kicking, like Swan, Fyfe, etc

He was a massive loss to us this year and last.

In his 10 completed games in 2020 we went 7-3. In the 9 he played a half (R1) or not at all, we went 4-5. With no other major personnel changes.

Him and Jones are the dynamic ones in our midfield, but we’ve just struggled to keep them on the park consistently the last two years. Hopefully our new fitness guy is able to do that next year. It will take us places if he does.

If not, we’ll need Clark and Bytel to step up and we won’t be as good.

 

[Ambrosia]

Agree with the sentiment that Gresham is the key to the saints midfield. As long as the achilles hasn’t done significant permanent damage I don’t really see how he doesn’t make the leap to gun midfielder. Forget about the stats he passed the eye test from very early on.

The good thing for the Saints is Steele is every bit good enough to be the best player on premiership team and his name doesn’t look out of place alongside your Bont/Petracca/Oliver types.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Agree with the sentiment that Gresham is the key to the saints midfield. As long as the achilles hasn’t done significant permanent damage I don’t really see how he doesn’t make the leap to gun midfielder. Forget about the stats he passed the eye test from very early on.

The good thing for the Saints is Steele is every bit good enough to be the best player on premiership team and his name doesn’t look out of place alongside your Bont/Petracca/Oliver types.

Hunter Clark as well. We didn’t draft him to play across HB.

He was drafted that high off the back of his outstanding midfield play (despite playing a lot of his draft year across HB, he still averaged over 13 contested possessions, 6 clearances and 6 tackles per game, so he had an extremely well rounded midfield game, where he combined real hardness and ball-winning ability, with elite composure and smooth skills) and his game was being likened to that of Nat Fyfe.

Went into the midfield late last year and showed plenty, before a knee injury slowed him down and he returned to HB, then he got in the coaches votes in R1 this year with a 12 CP, 7 clearance game against the GWS bulls, before again returning to HB when Jones returned the following week and Crouch the week after.

With so many viable options across HB now, Dunstan now no longer a reserve option when we have injuries in the middle, and the distinct possibility that Gresh will be eased back in up forward, it’s hard to see Hunter not spending much more time in the midfield area.

 

[Ambrosia]

Hunter Clark as well. We didn’t draft him to play across HB.

He was drafted that high off the back of his outstanding midfield play (despite playing a lot of his draft year across HB, he still averaged over 13 contested possessions, 6 clearances and 6 tackles per game, so he had an extremely well rounded midfield game, where he combined real hardness and ball-winning ability, with elite composure and smooth skills) and his game was being likened to that of Nat Fyfe.

Went into the midfield late last year and showed plenty, before a knee injury slowed him down and he returned to HB, then he got in the coaches votes in R1 this year with a 12 CP, 7 clearance game against the GWS bulls, before again returning to HB when Jones returned the following week and Crouch the week after.

With so many viable options across HB now, Dunstan now no longer a reserve option when we have injuries in the middle, and the distinct possibility that Gresh will be eased back in up forward, it’s hard to see Hunter not spending much more time in the midfield area.

I like Clark a lot not sure he’ll become a gun midfielder though. Not saying it won’t happen

 

[aussierulesrules]

I like Clark a lot not sure he’ll become a gun midfielder though. Not saying it won’t happen

What do you see as holding him back there?

 

[Ambrosia]

What do you see as holding him back there?

Haven’t seen his good games in the midfield. I have no argument to say that he won’t am completely neutral to the idea.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Haven’t seen his good games in the midfield. I have no argument to say that he won’t am completely neutral to the idea.

The only things I see as having the potential to hold him back there are his lack of pace off the mark and his defensive running. Outside of that he seems to have more than enough tools to succeed there.

In his draft year once moved into the midfield he was renowned for his hardness in there and was posting very high numbers for disposals, contested possessions (at least one game of 20+ from memory), clearances, and tackles (14/15 in one game from memory) and went at almost a goal a game, and he’s shown really good signs in his brief stints there for us.

The main one last year was his 24 disposal (12 contested), 5 clearance game against West Coast in the shortened game, and his similar numbers game against GWS in R1 this year, where he had an equal game-high 7 clearances. Also played midfield in our final preseason game against Carlton and had a game-high 8 clearances.

Also played a lot on the wing against Hawthorn in R7 and had 26 touches, 2 goals and a coaches vote.

It will be an extremely disappointing result for us if he doesn’t end up being considered a “gun mid”.

 

[eastfreo75]

Steele was unlikely until he was.
Parish was unlikely until this year.
Neale was unlikely until he was.
Even Petracca had question marks On whether he could be a mid until last year.
Lyons was even let go by Adelaide and GC.

My point is it takes time for most players.

you say we need top draft picks of which I say Gresh 24yrs and Clark 22yrs were, as well as Coffield (questions over whether he becomes a mid). But then you say it’s unlikely they can become top line players. You then scoff at Byrnes and Bytel who were both picked later but have shown plenty of promise, because they’re not top picks.

Sinclair was our 2nd best player this year after being a rookie.
Marshall is arguably our most important player and was a rookie.
Wilkie is a very good player and hasn’t missed a game, he was a rookie.

It’s hard to predict with some players, but the law of averages and our recent draft strike rate (with limited picks) has been very pleasing and suggests that it’s only a matter of time that at least 1 player steps up in that midfield group

Biggest myth in football that Neale game went to another level at the Lions.

Lachie Neale of the Brisbane Lions Career AFL Stats (footywire.com)

From year 4 Neale's stats at Fremantle is comparable to his Brisbane years.

Only difference is Brisbane get more national exposal than Fremantle and Neale came out of the shadows of Fyfe. His numbers are the same at both Clubs except for his first three years.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Biggest myth in football that Neale game went to another level at the Lions.

Lachie Neale of the Brisbane Lions Career AFL Stats (footywire.com)

From year 4 Neale's stats at Fremantle is comparable to his Brisbane years.

Only difference is Brisbane get more national exposal than Fremantle and Neale came out of the shadows of Fyfe. His numbers are the same at both Clubs except for his first three years.

The difference is he has gone from being the second best player in a poor/average side to the best player on a very good side. Everyone gets rated more highly when they play for a good side. Also when you win a Brownlow people naturally rate you more highly

 

[eastfreo75]

The difference is he has gone from being the second best player in a poor/average side to the best player on a very good side. Everyone gets rated more highly when they play for a good side. Also when you win a Brownlow people naturally rate you more highly

That is the case for sure.

Regardless, Neales performance at Fremantle and Brisbane is the same level.

People forget that Neale broke the AFL record for possessions in a season at Fremantle and averaged 27 possessions when Freo was top of ladder in 2015 after the regular season.

 

[puppy_dog7]

Biggest myth in football that Neale game went to another level at the Lions.

Lachie Neale of the Brisbane Lions Career AFL Stats (footywire.com)

From year 4 Neale's stats at Fremantle is comparable to his Brisbane years.

Only difference is Brisbane get more national exposal than Fremantle and Neale came out of the shadows of Fyfe. His numbers are the same at both Clubs except for his first three years.

I never said he only get better at Brisbane.
He was a late pick and showed some good signs early, but no one would’ve thought he’d become a top line mid and Brownlow medallist.

 

[eastfreo75]

I never said he only get better at Brisbane.
He was a late pick and showed some good signs early, but no one would’ve thought he’d become a top line mid and Brownlow medallist.

His third year he averaged 23 possessions a game, which is pretty good for a third year player.

Fourth year he averaged 27 possessions a game.

After Fremantle fell off the cliff, Neales performances got better.

While he may have been picked the 50’s, he was not a slow burn.

 

[branedotorg]

s**t news about coffield, ACL, do the saints have any notable SSP players training with them?

 

[goodie23]

sh*t news about coffield, ACL, do the saints have any notable SSP players training with them?

Only one is SANFL star Jack Hayes who looks to have been signed (but no official announcement from the club yet)

 

[bird_man]

Gresham has been killed by injuries the last 2 years.

Prior to that most were rating him one of the best out of the 2015 draft.

We really need him to be able to stay on the park.

Our midfield is an obvious weakness right now though. Clark could be a star IMO but the club seem reluctant to play him as a genuine mid.

Each time he's had the opportunity hes done well in there.

Getting him into the midfield should be top of the priority list because I don't see too many outside of him making it as an elite mid unfortunately.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Our midfield would be perfectly fine if we had Steele, Gresham, Jones and Crouch out on the park consistently and then had Clark and Ross and Byrnes and maybe Hannebery as options to go through there as well, but unfortunately keeping Gresh and to a lesser extent Jones out there consistently has been a big challenge in the past two years.

Those two are the dynamic ones who really compliment Steele and Crouch, but it leaves us a lot more one-dimensional when one or both are missing.

Clark will add class if he plays there a lot more, which finally seems likely to happen now.

As long as they resist the temptation to put him back into defence now that Coff is out for the year!

 

[Dogga6]

Watched a fair bit of the Saints game today.

I know it's only a practise game and you cannot take much out of it, but my gosh they were pretty ordinary. Considering this is a side hell bent in making finals again they looked like a bottom 6 team just on today's display.

The biggest concern I had with their list was their lack of midfield depth and it shone out big time today. Crouch was an absolute plodder and looks like he's lost a yard in pace. I thought Jones and Steele were good but that was really about it. Byrne's and Clark were also pretty ordinary to say at least.

Said this before and I'll say it again, I hope the Saints overlooking Ben Hobbs in the draft won't be a draft blunder because there was some genuine concerns with their midfield display today and I saw nothing that convinces me that they have the midfield power to challenge top 8.

 

[Murraj1966]

Watched a fair bit of the Saints game today.

I know it's only a practise game and you cannot take much out of it, but my gosh they were pretty ordinary. Considering this is a side hell bent in making finals again they looked like a bottom 6 team just on today's display.

The biggest concern I had with their list was their lack of midfield depth and it shone out big time today. Crouch was an absolute plodder and looks like he's lost a yard in pace. I thought Jones and Steele were good but that was really about it. Byrne's and Clark were also pretty ordinary to say at least.

Said this before and I'll say it again, I hope the Saints overlooking Ben Hobbs in the draft won't be a draft blunder because there was some genuine concerns with their midfield display today and I saw nothing that convinces me that they have the midfield power to challenge top 8.

Last year we tore North and Carlton to absolute shreds in the pre season and we didn't achieve match fitness until the bye so I'm not too stressed

Our mids will play better when our first ruck isn't Tom Campbell as well

 

[Dogga6]

Last year we tore North and Carlton to absolute shreds in the pre season and we didn't achieve match fitness until the bye so I'm not too stressed

Our mids will play better when our first ruck isn't Tom Campbell as well

What's having a first choice ruck got do with Crouch being slow and a bit of a plodder? Or Ryan Byrne's butchering the footy? Same as Hunter Clark who was pretty underwhelming yesterday as well.

Just have concerns that a lot of the grunt work will be left solely on Steele. No one really put their hand yesterday to suggest that there is depth and support for him.

Where's Jack Bytel in all of this? Have read some rave reviews by Saints supporters over the off season but he wasn't playing?

 

[puppy_dog7]

What's having a first choice ruck got do with Crouch being slow and a bit of a plodder? Or Ryan Byrne's butchering the footy? Same as Hunter Clark who was pretty underwhelming yesterday as well.

Just have concerns that a lot of the grunt work will be left solely on Steele. No one really put their hand yesterday to suggest that there is depth and support for him.

Where's Jack Bytel in all of this? Have read some rave reviews by Saints supporters over the off season but he wasn't playing?

Understand where you’re coming from but it’s their first proper hitout in 6 months. I’ll excuse the poor performance.
If it’s still happening by round 2-3 then I’ll be seriously concerned as most saints supporters will be.

But also as Murraj said, we looked absolutely amazing against North and Carlton last year in the practice matches and we looked certain for a good start to the year. But as we all know that didn’t translate to the season proper.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Where's Jack Bytel in all of this? Have read some rave reviews by Saints supporters over the off season but he wasn't playing?

Plenty of us do rate Bytel’s prospects very highly and he killed it throughout his junior years, and was one of the highest rated kids of that 2018 “superdraft” crop, until he injured his back that year, but he then missed the 2nd half of that year, all of the following season, and then the last two years since have obviously been badly affected by Covid lockdowns etc, so that has resulted in him only having played 15 official games of footy in 3.5 years.

With at least 6 of those 15 only being partial games, starting as the medical sub. So he’s played at most 9 full official games of footy in 3.5 years.

So as you can imagine, he’s probably not ready to take on a full time midfield role at AFL level yet, and he’s purely an “inside pig”, so he’s not likely to get a consistent game until he’s genuinely one of our best 3 or 4 on the inside, which he’s not likely to become until he at the very least gets a run of full VFL games under his belt.

At this stage he’s only played 2 official VFL games in his 3 years at the club. (For one 37 disposal, 10 clearance, 1 goal game, and one 28 disposal, 10 tackles game).

So having him on the list already would be one of the main reasons we didn’t draft Hobbs, with another being the fact that we were expecting to get our two NGA guys with our next two picks, and Owens in particular is another with a very strong inside game, while Windhager plays inside and forward, so it wouldn’t have made structural sense to take someone else who plays pretty much purely inside with our first pick as well.

 

[Dogga6]

Plenty of us do rate Bytel’s prospects very highly and he killed it throughout his junior years, and was one of the highest rated kids of that 2018 “superdraft” crop, until he injured his back that year, but he then missed the 2nd half of that year, all of the following season, and then the last two years since have obviously been badly affected by Covid lockdowns etc, so that has resulted in him only having played 15 official games of footy in 3.5 years.

With at least 6 of those 15 only being partial games, starting as the medical sub. So he’s played at most 9 full official games of footy in 3.5 years.

So as you can imagine, he’s probably not ready to take on a full time midfield role at AFL level yet, and he’s purely an “inside pig”, so he’s not likely to get a consistent game until he’s genuinely one of our best 3 or 4 on the inside, which he’s not likely to become until he at the very least gets a run of full VFL games under his belt.

At this stage he’s only played 2 official VFL games in his 3 years at the club. (For one 37 disposal, 10 clearance, 1 goal game, and one 28 disposal, 10 tackles game).

So having him on the list already would be one of the main reasons we didn’t draft Hobbs, with another being the fact that we were expecting to get our two NGA guys with our next two picks, and Owens in particular is another with a very strong inside game, while Windhager plays inside and forward, so it wouldn’t have made structural sense to take someone else who plays pretty much purely inside with our first pick as well.

With all due respect Aussie I think you make some really good points and I also take into account that covid has impacted development across the league.

My concerns still remain the same and that is the lack of midfield depth and the pressure this places on Steele.

I watched majority of the st kilda game and saw some worrying signs. Guys like Brad Crouch who just plodded along while Cerra and the likes were easily able to get past him. He's 28 now and certainly looks like he's past his best.

I was also disappointed to see Seb Ross playing plenty of minutes inside the centre square instead of someone like Ryan Byrne's for instance. I've seen Byrne's name come up a lot as someone that's ready to take the next step in the midfield brigade but was confused why Ratten was happy to keep Ross in there. Ross is past it and he got shown up on the weekend.

Even watching Byrne's, he just butchered footy and I thought it was a pretty underwhelming performance.

Just back on Bytel, he played the VFL game on Thursday didn't he? Any reason why he couldn't just play the first game? Would have been a great opportunity to see him play in place of Ross and just given him solid minutes in the midfield. I know he's had some minor niggles but by all reports he's had a good pre season and supposedly played well in the intra club match.

It was basically Steele and Jones who were the only midfielders that were good on Thursday. The rest were pretty disappointing and makes me wonder how will they compete when they do come up against the like of Brissy, Doggies, Dees who have solid midfield depth that bat quiet deep.

 

[staffonly]

Watched a fair bit of the Saints game today.

I know it's only a practise game and you cannot take much out of it, but my gosh they were pretty ordinary. Considering this is a side hell bent in making finals again they looked like a bottom 6 team just on today's display.

The biggest concern I had with their list was their lack of midfield depth and it shone out big time today. Crouch was an absolute plodder and looks like he's lost a yard in pace. I thought Jones and Steele were good but that was really about it. Byrne's and Clark were also pretty ordinary to say at least.

Said this before and I'll say it again, I hope the Saints overlooking Ben Hobbs in the draft won't be a draft blunder because there was some genuine concerns with their midfield display today and I saw nothing that convinces me that they have the midfield power to challenge top 8.

No you didn’t.