Opinion Brian Cook - Carlton's rebuild still has a fair way to go

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?


  • Total voters
    331

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premiershipvigil

All Australian
Aug 19, 2009
878
926
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Except good tackle differential doesn't correspond to winning games if you don't setup and play in a way that requires good tackle differential.

Melbourne, Eagles and Bulldogs were all Premiers without being any better than mid-table for tackle differential, because it wasn't integral to the way they played.

You have to go back to Sydney 2012 to find a side apart from Richmond that was Premier and a top tackle differential team.

Do you agree that the Cats are the only top 8 team with a negative tackle differential?
 

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Apr 23, 2016
30,510
42,679
AFL Club
Essendon
Do you agree that the Cats are the only top 8 team with a negative tackle differential?

They played in a GF with a negative differential in 2020.

As I said, it's indicative of tackling, not of success.

You tackle when you don't have the ball, better than tackling, is simply having the ball.
 

premiershipvigil

All Australian
Aug 19, 2009
878
926
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
They played in a GF with a negative differential in 2020.

As I said, it's indicative of tackling, not of success.

You tackle when you don't have the ball, better than tackling, is simply having the ball.
Not sure about that, Cats are the only top 8 team with a negative tackle differential across 2021 season.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,860
17,256
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Arr0w has asked me very nicely as to my thoughts of how important a coach is to the success of a team.

However, before I share my thoughts, let's reflect on some of the gems provided by the great man:
People really over/underrate coaches compared to the quality of lists
So, you can clearly see there is no set formula to arrive at the ultimate success ongoing, let alone being a finals side year after year, when it comes to coaches. While I would have preferred to have stuck fat with certain coaches, that doesn't mean moving on a coach limits success

I really have no idea why people get caught up with "this coach, over that coach" when history (and the future) will be littered with examples that a coach doesn't make a list
Trying to rate the vast majority of coaches against another, let alone themselves year to year or at another club is the most bizarre analysis I see/hear.
Seriously the whole coach analysis is really pointless
Ultimately, no matter how good or average a coach is, it's about the collective talent being in that critical age/experience bracket.
When you can't analyse the critical aspects of what makes a team rise/successful or not, just keep talking about the coach.
I think the following sums it up...
Ask any Carlton supporter you like, my view is that a head coach is the least vital component to success and that is back by history. So unless that trend changes, no need for me to change my views

Once again proving that Arr0w and I operate in parallel universes, my view is that the Head Coach is THE most important single component when building a Premiership team.

We have seen the likes of Carlton make bad decisions over and over again when it comes to Head coaches, and they haven't contended for two decades. Similarly Richmond, until they stuck fat with Hardwick, had the same lack of success for multiple decades (and a similar revolving door of coaches).

Here is a list of all of the Premiership coaches since the turn of the century, with the length of their tenure in the role at the time of the Premiership:
1640158854224.png

The average length of tenure for a Premiership Coach since the turn of the century is 7 years.

Why is the Head Coach such a critical ingredient in the recipe for Premiership success?
1. They assemble their coaching group;
2. They work with the coaching group that they assembled to formulate a game plan;
3. They work with the recruiters to identify talent that will best deliver to the game plan;
4. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) develop their playing list to successfully execute the game plan;
5. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) continue to evolve and tweak the game plan based on the playing list and trends in the game;
6. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) make match day decisions that directly influence the result of matches;
7. They set the performance standards to which all players strive to achieve;

Arr0w would have you believe that as long as you have the right playing list in the right age demographic, then the rest will take care of itself.

My view is that the above only comes as a result of continuity of approach driven by continuity of a Head Coach who has built the list and evolved the game plan to set the club up for the best chance of success.

That is why we see clubs that stick with a head coach despite what would appear to be a challenging period, come out the other side and contend for and/or win premierships. Thompson at Geelong (2006), Hardwick at Richmond (2016), Buckley at Collingwood (2016/17), Goodwin at Melbourne (2019).

Conversely, that is why we see clubs that have a revolving door for coaches have long periods without contending. Richmond pre-Hardwick and Carlton since 2001.

Of course there are the occasional exception, and one is Geelong in 2011. But that speaks volumes for the quality of that team at the time, and I have declared in other threads that Geelong of 2007 to 2011 was the best and most complete football team I have ever seen play the game. Sydney 2012 another, though that was courtesy of a well planned and well executed succession plan with Roos. Bulldogs in 2016 the third and final outlier in the past two decades, who we believe won it out of turn by putting in an extraordinary 4 weeks of football, and haven't exactly been a consistent contender since.

That is why Carlton has been such an interesting watch for the past two decades. Every time they select the wrong coach, and take three years to find out that is the case, it means they are on average another 7 years away from putting themselves in a position to contend for a premiership (and that will only be the case if they manage to get the replacement coach right).

It is also why I have the utmost respect for clubs who support their coaches in the face of adversity. We as observers and supporters have very little idea what is going on in the background, whether or not the coach has lost the players. We as supporters need to vote in our Club Boards and allow them to make the decisions around whether or not the time is up for a coach, and to terminate a Contract should always be an absolute last resort. Because when you do, you are restarting the whole premiership team building cycle from ground zero.
 
Last edited:
Nov 13, 2015
46,420
133,607
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Arr0w has asked me very nicely as to my thoughts of how important a coach is to the success of a team.

However, before I share my thoughts, let's reflect on some of the gems provided by the great man:






I think the following sums it up...


Once again proving that Arr0w and I operate in parallel universes, my view is that the Head Coach is THE most important single component when building a Premiership team.

We have seen the likes of Carlton make bad decisions over and over again when it comes to Head coaches, and they haven't contended for two decades. Similarly Richmond, until they stuck fat with Hardwick, had the same lack of success for multiple decades (and a similar revolving door of coaches).

Here is a list of all of the Premiership coaches since the turn of the century, with the length of their tenure in the role at the time of the Premiership:
View attachment 1301021
The average length of tenure for a Premiership Coach since the turn of the century is 7 years.

Why is the Head Coach such a critical ingredient in the recipe for Premiership success?
1. They assemble their coaching group;
2. They work with the coaching group that they assembled to formulate a game plan;
3. They work with the recruiters to identify talent that will best deliver to the game plan;
4. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) develop their playing list to successfully execute the game plan;
5. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) continue to evolve and tweak the game plan based on the playing list and trends in the game;
6. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) make match day decisions that directly influence the result of matches;
7. They set the performance standards to which all players strive to achieve;

Arr0w would have you believe that as long as you have the right playing list in the right age demographic, then the rest will take care of itself.

My view is that the above only comes as a result of continuity of approach driven by continuity of a Head Coach who has built the list and evolved the game plan to set the club up for the best chance of success.

That is why we see clubs that stick with a head coach despite what would appear to be a challenging period, come out the other side and contend for and/or win premierships. Thompson at Geelong, Hardwick at Richmond, Buckley at Collingwood, Goodwin at Melbourne.

Conversely, that is why we see clubs that have a revolving door for coaches have long periods without contending. Richmond pre-Hardwick and Carlton since 2001.

Of course there are the occasional exception, and one is Geelong in 2011. But that speaks volumes for the quality of that team at the time, and I have declared in other threads that Geelong of 2007 to 2011 was the best and most complete football team I have ever seen play the game.

That is why Carlton has been such an interesting watch for the past two decades. Every time they select the wrong coach, and take three years to find out that is the case, it means they are on average another 7 years away from putting themselves in a position to contend for a premiership (and that will only be the case if they manage to get the replacement coach right).

It is also why I have the utmost respect for clubs who support their coaches in the face of adversity. We as observers and supporters have very little idea what is going on in the background, whether or not the coach has lost the players. We as supporters need to vote in our Club Boards and allow them to make the decisions around whether or not the time is up for a coach, and to terminate a Contract should always be an absolute last resort. Because when you do, you are restarting the whole premiership team building cycle from ground zero.

How did I know you were going to make this about Carlton, rather than coaches as a whole, very predictable

This is so easy to debate. Will start with the so called GOAT, Clarkson, a coach that was retained for a number of years, then pick apart the numerous other coaches in similar circumstances

If Clarkson was so good, considered a GOAT, why did he miss finals 4 out of his last 5 years?
 

Herzog

Team Captain
Nov 19, 2021
305
357
AFL Club
Collingwood
How did I know you were going to make this about Carlton, rather than coaches as a whole, very predictable

This is so easy to debate. Will start with the so called GOAT, Clarkson, a coach that was retained for a number of years, then pick apart the numerous other coaches in similar circumstances

If Clarkson was so good, considered a GOAT, why did he miss finals 4 out of his last 5 years?
Because you can't win em all?
 

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Jack Green

All Australian
Feb 14, 2018
692
579
AFL Club
St Kilda
Arr0w has asked me very nicely as to my thoughts of how important a coach is to the success of a team.

However, before I share my thoughts, let's reflect on some of the gems provided by the great man:






I think the following sums it up...


Once again proving that Arr0w and I operate in parallel universes, my view is that the Head Coach is THE most important single component when building a Premiership team.

We have seen the likes of Carlton make bad decisions over and over again when it comes to Head coaches, and they haven't contended for two decades. Similarly Richmond, until they stuck fat with Hardwick, had the same lack of success for multiple decades (and a similar revolving door of coaches).

Here is a list of all of the Premiership coaches since the turn of the century, with the length of their tenure in the role at the time of the Premiership:
View attachment 1301021
The average length of tenure for a Premiership Coach since the turn of the century is 7 years.

Why is the Head Coach such a critical ingredient in the recipe for Premiership success?
1. They assemble their coaching group;
2. They work with the coaching group that they assembled to formulate a game plan;
3. They work with the recruiters to identify talent that will best deliver to the game plan;
4. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) develop their playing list to successfully execute the game plan;
5. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) continue to evolve and tweak the game plan based on the playing list and trends in the game;
6. They (together with the coaching group they assembled) make match day decisions that directly influence the result of matches;
7. They set the performance standards to which all players strive to achieve;

Arr0w would have you believe that as long as you have the right playing list in the right age demographic, then the rest will take care of itself.

My view is that the above only comes as a result of continuity of approach driven by continuity of a Head Coach who has built the list and evolved the game plan to set the club up for the best chance of success.

That is why we see clubs that stick with a head coach despite what would appear to be a challenging period, come out the other side and contend for and/or win premierships. Thompson at Geelong (2006), Hardwick at Richmond (2016), Buckley at Collingwood (2016/17), Goodwin at Melbourne (2019).

Conversely, that is why we see clubs that have a revolving door for coaches have long periods without contending. Richmond pre-Hardwick and Carlton since 2001.

Of course there are the occasional exception, and one is Geelong in 2011. But that speaks volumes for the quality of that team at the time, and I have declared in other threads that Geelong of 2007 to 2011 was the best and most complete football team I have ever seen play the game.

That is why Carlton has been such an interesting watch for the past two decades. Every time they select the wrong coach, and take three years to find out that is the case, it means they are on average another 7 years away from putting themselves in a position to contend for a premiership (and that will only be the case if they manage to get the replacement coach right).

It is also why I have the utmost respect for clubs who support their coaches in the face of adversity. We as observers and supporters have very little idea what is going on in the background, whether or not the coach has lost the players. We as supporters need to vote in our Club Boards and allow them to make the decisions around whether or not the time is up for a coach, and to terminate a Contract should always be an absolute last resort. Because when you do, you are restarting the whole premiership team building cycle from ground zero.
Probably deserves another thread - but personally I feel coaches are generally over-rated in evaluating the success of the club.
Voss at Brisbane running under 40% win/loss - not highly regarded on his performance then, but could well be better second time around. He has a decent mid rung list capable of making finals, so he's not starting at ground zero which will help.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,860
17,256
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Probably deserves another thread - but personally I feel coaches are generally over-rated in evaluating the success of the club.
Voss at Brisbane running under 40% win/loss - not highly regarded on his performance then, but could well be better second time around. He has a decent mid rung list capable of making finals, so he's not starting at ground zero which will help.
Voss is starting at ground zero in relation to game plan, playing list fit to game plan, and many of us believe the list is extremely shallow.

So yes, he may have enough to get them to sneak into the finals in the next couple of years, but to seriously contend? I'm tipping no.

Not to mention Voss is yet to prove he can lead a team into premiership contention as coach.
 
Last edited:

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,860
17,256
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
This is so easy to debate. Will start with the so called GOAT, Clarkson, a coach that was retained for a number of years, then pick apart the numerous other coaches in similar circumstances

If Clarkson was so good, considered a GOAT, why did he miss finals 4 out of his last 5 years?
Clarkson overrated and we can't take anything from Voss' time as coach of Brisbane?

You wouldn't have necessarily gone Clarkson over Voss, had Clarkson made himself available?
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,860
17,256
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hang on, what? Clarkson is/was overrated?
Is this not what you're suggesting?!?
This is so easy to debate. Will start with the so called GOAT, Clarkson, a coach that was retained for a number of years, then pick apart the numerous other coaches in similar circumstances

If Clarkson was so good, considered a GOAT, why did he miss finals 4 out of his last 5 years?
 
Nov 13, 2015
46,420
133,607
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Is this not what you're suggesting?!?

Your the one suggesting the coach is the most important factor, so that being the case, why would you say he was overrated?

But, before you start the deflections, answer the question, why did Clarkson miss finals 4 out of his last 5 years if he is considered one of the best coaches of the modern era?
 
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