It's been a fascinating discussion.
I previously would have said no-one would be able to mount a cohesive argument that could possibly convince me that 3 non consecutive flags in 5 years could be as agood as 3 flags in a row, but MR, Fadge, etc. have done an exemplary job. I still find myself wondering whether it passes the pub test ? Then again, pubs aren't that smart, are they ?
Then I ponder Collingwood's 4 flags in a row in the 1920s. While there are clearly anomalies from an amateur code 100 years ago, I also note it's never been done since. If 4 flags in a row hasn't been done in almost 100 years it stands to reason it's a very hard thing to do. So, would 4 flags in 5 years be as easy as 4 flags in a row ? I can't conceive that it would be. Where do you draw the line ?
I don't have the answer, but I'm left with a ''feeling'', nothing tangibly more, that an unblemished run is superior to a marginally blemished run, notwithstanding the fantastic arguments that have probably convinced me otherwise. It's just gut feel.
It is good your mind is open to seeing alternative views.
Let’s post some more facts around this to try to give a bit more perspective.
There have been 125 VFL/AFL seasons.
72 Premierships have not formed part of a succession of at least 2 consecutive Premierships.
53 Premierships have formed a part of a chain of successive Premierships.
On 23 occasions a club has won 2 or more Premierships in succession, a conversion rate of almost 1 in 5 of the previous Premier winning at least 1 subsequent Premiership.
On 6 of those 23 occasions the team has gone on to win the 3rd flag in succession. A conversion rate of better than 1 in 4 from the group of 23 who won a Premiership then at least one more in succession.
On 1 of those 6 occasions a team won 3 in succession, it also won a fourth in succession.
It seems from this that flag winners win the subsequent flag between 1 in 4 and 1 in 6 times, regardless of whether they have won 1,2 or 3 in succession beforehand.
How many times has a Premier got another flag within the next 2 seasons but those two flags not being consecutive? 16 times. So WW happens 23 times but WLW just 16 times. When you take into account the related contingency factor, this suggests to me 2 in 3 is no less(and no more) difficult to achieve than 2 in 3 which includes consecutive flags.
Obviously all of the 6 x 3 consecutive Premiership cases are also examples of 3 in 4 and 3 in 5 and 3 in 6. So how many other cases are there of the following:
3 flags in 4 seasons - Beside the consecutive hat-ricks, this has occurred just 3 times without one of the flags also making up part of a consecutive treble. Hawks 88-89-91. Blues 79-81-82. Tigers 2017-19-20.
3 flags in 5 seasons with none of the flags also making up part of a consecutive treble or part of a 3 in 4 sequence? Essendon 46-49-50. Carlton 68-70-72. Geelong 07-09-11.
3 in 6 flags with no flag forming part of any of the above 3 sequences of 3 in 3, 3 in 4 or 3 in 5? Melbourne 59-60-64. Richmond 69-73-74. Hawks 83-86-88.
How many times total did a team win at least 3 flags within 6 seasons? Counting just discrete occurrences, so no individual flag counts in more than one sequence, this has happened 14 times. Of those 14 occasions obviously 6 of them were 3 consecutive flags.
Finally, instances of a team winning a flag and not winning another one within the previous or following 5 seasons……this has actually only happened 29 times though both Melbourne and the Eagles could reduce that number by winning a flag within 5 seasons of their most recent flags. This means that 96 of the 125 Premierships won to date make up part of at least 2 flags won by the club within a 6 year window.
So there are only 27 confirmed cases of a team winning a solitary flag within a 6 year window. There are I think also 27 cases of teams winning 2 or more flags within a 6 year window. Of those 27, 23 involved at least 2 flags in succession.
Conclusions: We can conclude that it is as common to win 2 flags within your typical 6 year window as it is to win just one flag. Of those winning 3 or more within a 6 year window, 14 individual instances, almost half of those(6) contained 3 consecutive flags.
Finally there are 6 discrete hat-tricks of flags. However, only 3 teams have ever won 4 or more flags within a 6 year window: Collingwood 4 from 6 around the 27-30, Melbourne 5 from 6 from 55-60, Hawthorn 4 from 6 from 1986-91. And in the Hawks case only 7 players from 1986 played in the 1991 flag, so almost two thirds of the team had been changed. The Hawks 86-91 are the only non hat-trick team ever to win as many as 4 flags in 6 years and 2/3rds of the team had to be changed to achieve that, so it wasn’t substantially the same team.
What is extremely difficult is winning at least 4 flags with one team. It has really only happened twice, both times before I was born. Winning three within 6 seasons with a team has been more common, occurring 14 times in all. That 6 of those 14 contained hat-tricks of consecutive flags I think tells us that it isnt the consecutive flags that is so difficult to achieve, it is the 4th flag within a 6 year window with one team that would be the greatest mountain to climb. And none of these recent great dynasty teams were able to achieve that, the Hawks probably coming closest, then the Cats, then the Lions.
Could Melbourne be the team to do it?