The 2018 Superdraft revisited

[Trav 20]

Accumulation is a fair enough point to bring up, though he’s only played 3 seasons of football, one of which he missed. And he averaged 18 touches a game. He averages more touches per game in his third season than danger, Ablett, and the same as Trac. But yes, who knows if he will end up averaging 25-30 touches per game.

But that kind of flies in the face of your “impact player claim”. That’s exactly what he is right now. High on metres gained, goals, score involments etc. if there was a stat for clearance per Center bounce attended I’d bet he’s high on that list too. He also regularly takes contested pack marks. And like butters throws his slender body into players. Loves to play tough.

Re “explosiveness”, maybe his laconic running style and lack of conditioning has misdirected you. He burst out of the Center square many times year. He also averaged more running bounces than butters and Rozee and twice that of Walsh.

Anyway, the future will reveal all.

I have little opinion on this, but just to say Ablett Jr isn't a great example. He averaged 15 disposals per game across exactly his first 100, as he was predominantly used as a small forward. It was his 6th season before he exploded.

Is Thomas more a silky type in the Burgoyne mode, as opposed to the beast mode mids, who are few and far between ?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I have little opinion on this, but just to say Ablett Jr isn't a great example. He averaged 15 disposals per game across exactly his first 100, as he was predominantly used as a small forward. It was his 6th season before he exploded.

Is Thomas more a silky type in the Burgoyne mode, as opposed to the beast mode mids, who are few and far between ?

Reckon that's a perfect comparison for TT

 

[the big lebowski]

I have little opinion on this, but just to say Ablett Jr isn't a great example. He averaged 15 disposals per game across exactly his first 100, as he was predominantly used as a small forward. It was his 6th season before he exploded.

Is Thomas more a silky type in the Burgoyne mode, as opposed to the beast mode mids, who are few and far between ?

I didn’t bring up gaj or accumulation. I just stated a fact re how Thomas’s accumulation in his third year compared to those others indicated were better accumulators than Thomas.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Thomas has all the chance to be an elite player but maybe like Petracca it will take him a few years to get going, He has looked pretty damn good so far.

Walsh looked good from his first game and is possibly the most "ready" for AFL football as a mid since Selwood imo, He lifted his game a lot in 2021 and will hopefully continue that form.

 

[Sphynx]

All I'm saying is I don't believe Thomas has the explosiveness or to become one of these high impact superstar players similar to Dusty, Trac, Fyfe, Danger, Judd, GAJ.

He is at very best above average for speed, strength and power from when I've watched him. He has lovely skills and a deadly kick and I believe that's his main weapon. I don't see him breaking through tackles or fending off opponents. Trac and Dusty etc have all the skills and then the athletic freak factor to go with it which is what makes them so good.

I only see Rozee Walsh and Rankine with that potential from this draft, but Rozee and Rankine have been injured a lot and Walsh may never get the size due to the endurance aspect of his game.
Butters I just love as he throws himself at any contest no matter the danger.

Some are not like others in that group

Judd and Danger are on a different level to those mentioned in regards to foot speed and Fyfe for other reasons.

Petracca is nowhere near as athletic as Judd. I’d go as far as saying he’s not even as explosive as Dusty, but brings other facets obviously.

Thomas is quick enough, he’s got enough footspeed to break from stoppage which is all that really matters. He’s certainly not average or slow as you seem to be implying.

He’s got a pretty big vertical and his wing span (in basketball terms) would be enormous, he has really long arms. I imagine he would have the same standing reach as a lot of KPP’s.

 

[Tylerbombers]

It was Jon Pierik at The Age that devised the paramters though, not me.

Ye I know, itd be a bit weird if you were quoting yourself lol.

 

[Trav 20]

Walsh looked good from his first game and is possibly the most "ready" for AFL football as a mid since Selwood imo, He lifted his game a lot in 2021 and will hopefully continue that form.

At the risk of sounding partisan, you're forgetting Oliver, who won a B&F at 19 in his second year and was AA in his third (same as Walsh).

Also, Oliver has always had considerably higher contested possession numbers to Walsh even in those first few years.

Oliver has been in the coal face since day dot, whereas Walsh has been more outside. Oliver was more ready to be a centre square mid.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

At the risk of sounding partisan, you're forgetting Oliver, who won a B&F at 19 in his second year and was AA in his third (same as Walsh).

Also, Oliver has always had considerably higher contested possession numbers to Walsh even in those first few years.

Oliver has been in the coal face since day dot, whereas Walsh has been more outside. Oliver was more ready to be a centre square mid.

Nah Oliver is a fair call there, 2nd year B&F is a rare feat (Paddy Cripps, Nick Riewoldt, Jeremy Cameron being the only players in the last 20 years who have done it off the top of my head)

I do recall round 1 2017 when Oliver exploded and dominated St Kilda, then went on from there.

 

[dees arent rabble]

Its well known that most clubs schedule in the fourth year of a players career as the one for them to really settle in to their careers. A lot of ex AFL players have stated that the fourth Pre season is the one where you start to feel comfortable and mature in your AFL body and with your ability to meet the demands of the league.

This draft class is heading into their fourth season, and it has proven to be a ridiculously good class. Walsh in my opinion will be in the top 5 players in the league in the next few years. The King boys, Bailey Smith and others all look like stars. By the end of this season, we will have a real indication of where these players will be ranked in this draft. My thoughts on a top 10 rankings from this draft come end of season 2022 are:

1. Sam Walsh
2. Ben King
3. Bailey Smith
4. Max King
5. Tarryn Thomas
6. Jack Lukosius
7. Zak Butters
8. Connor Rozee
9. Isaac Quaynor
10. Nick Blakey

There is talent all the way through this draft, with a couple of premiership players already in there. Some serious pressure on others too such as Rankine, Chayce Jones and to a lesser extent Rozee, who plateaued throughout 2021.

Any other players that could break into this top 10?

Never heard of any of them

 

[adammania9]

What does that mean?

Means it’s a stat that doesn’t really mean anything, or is plucked from very specific numbers to make a player look better than they are. Granted Tarryn Thomas is very good and I rate him, but specifically choosing 18 disposals (20 would be the go to, but Tarryn didn’t average 20), and including score assists which is a nothing stat, just doesn’t really mean anything

 

[adammania9]

Thomas is clearly the better prospect compared with Lukosius, no matter how good Luko’s kicking might be. He’s effectively a third tall at either end of the ground, and Thomas is a contested ball winning mid who kicks goals, aka: the most valuable commodity in the game. Every coach and recruiter would take Tarryn based on his last season

 

[the big lebowski]

Thomas is clearly the better prospect compared with Lukosius, no matter how good Luko’s kicking might be. He’s effectively a third tall at either end of the ground, and Thomas is a contested ball winning mid who kicks goals, aka: the most valuable commodity in the game. Every coach and recruiter would take Tarryn based on his last season

Thomas can also easily play as a third tall.

At either end.

 

[WilloTree]

Luko is a gun but ffs, Thomas is delivering the goods at a level that's tracking him to be a top five player in the comp in two seasons.

... he was one of only seven players last season to average at least 18 disposals and more than one goal and one score assist, alongside such superstars as Dustin Martin, Christian Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli.

The players who have a point to prove in your AFL team

Four Brownlow medallists, a star forward, a veteran skipper and a captain now sharing the role with two teammates are among the players seeking to have a greater impact in 2022.

www.theage.com.au

Tarryn Thomas is unprecedented?

 

[The Warlord]

I have little opinion on this, but just to say Ablett Jr isn't a great example. He averaged 15 disposals per game across exactly his first 100, as he was predominantly used as a small forward. It was his 6th season before he exploded.

Is Thomas more a silky type in the Burgoyne mode, as opposed to the beast mode mids, who are few and far between ?

Beast mode mid.

 

[Trav 20]

Beast mode mid.

Genetically ?

I don't think so.

 

[00Stinger]

Tarryn Thomas is unprecedented?

Can play as a big midfielder, flanker or a tall KPP

No pressure lol

 

[WilloTree]

Can play as a big midfielder, flanker or a tall KPP

No pressure lol

Thomas coming into his 4th year. Pav, Oliver and Judd had already won their 1st AAs by now.

Pav as a full back!

Might be some over-rating going on here?

 

[joop]

Butters would be in my top 5, I rate players that can create play very highly and his hands are amazing. I expect Max King to be top 2 within a few years. Next to useless at ground level and not as multi-faceted as his brother but look at the first half of the Cats game in round 22. What he does well he does exceptionally well. Will be be on the those players that can completely dismantle a team simply due to being unstoppable when he's on.

Next to useless at ground level? Dafuq are you smoking Max is amazing at ground level for his size.

 

[The Warlord]

Genetically ?

I don't think so.

He's 189cm and listed at 76kg, although I reckon the 76 is unders now

He's got the kind of frame you can stack muscle onto as well and is hard as cat's head.

You're correct in that he doesn't have the genetics of a Cunnington/Cripps style beast mid though.

 

[00Stinger]

Thomas coming into his 4th year. Pav, Oliver and Judd had already won their 1st AAs by now.

Pav as a full back!

Might be some over-rating going on here?

from his own teams supporters, no never

 

[Trav 20]

He's 189cm and listed at 76kg, although I reckon the 76 is unders now

He's got the kind of frame you can stack muscle onto as well and is hard as cat's head.

You're correct in that he doesn't have the genetics of a Cunnington/Cripps style beast mid though.

Cripps ? Pfft.

Nor this guy.

 

[Pessimistic]

Is 2018 too early so see what gems fell outside the first round?

I’m asking because in the years previous there seem to be a lot more gems taken late, but since 2018 all draftees after round 1 who’ve got games seem very much in the role player category

has hindsight (although it’s obviously still to play out) shown the ‘hawks need to get into the first round’ was prophetic?

Is it too early to declare 2018 hasn’t produced much at all outside the first round (not even beginning to discuss the definition of ‘super draft’)

2013-2014-2015 seem better candidates, but there’s twice as many years hindsight

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Is 2018 too early so see what gems fell outside the first round?

I’m asking because in the years previous there seem to be a lot more gems taken late, but since 2018 all draftees after round 1 who’ve got games seem very much in the role player category

has hindsight (although it’s obviously still to play out) shown the ‘hawks need to get into the first round’ was prophetic?

Some players from the 3rd round onwards form this draft have had an impact for sure:

Justin Mcinerney
Curtis Taylor
Bailey Scott
Jacob Koschitzke
Nick Hind
Noah Answerth
Lachlan Schultz

All played roughly 30 games or more. Tracking well.

An insider at the lions told me recently they rate Answerth in the same category as Berry and Mcluggage.

 

[Pessimistic]

I suppose I undrsatnd Koschitzke the best - hers some fairly equivalent picks from previous drafts (not many at 195cm btw_

'17 Charlie Ballard

10

Charlie Ballard

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

1.2

3star

MG

185.6

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.6

2star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.3

2star

MG

158.9

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

156.0

3star

'16 Nick Larkey

20

Nick Larkey

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

'15 Mitch Brown '14 Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

'13 Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

'12 kamdyn Mcintosh

33

Kamdyn Mcintosh

Age

30

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

13.8

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.2

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

18.6

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.0

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

- go earlier than that not many left on lists anyway)

Theres also more than a few tall players taken in rookie and various supp drafts

 

[EBERT THE KING]

I suppose I undrsatnd Koschitzke the best - hers some fairly equivalent picks from previous drafts (not many at 195cm btw_

'17 Charlie Ballard '16 Nick Larkey '15 Mitch Brown '14 Harris Andrews '13 Ben Brown '12 kamdyn Mcintosh - go earlier than that not many left on lists anyway)

Theres also more than a few tall players taken in rookie and various supp drafts

Its a funny one with talls being drafted later. It gives a good insight into how recruiters can foresee development.

For instance, Nick Larkey with the 5th last pick in the 2016 draft has turned into the best key forward from that draft. That looks to be an unbelievable pick.