Covid-19 Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 5 - Get vaccinated.

[Chief]

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infec...d-19-vaccination-case-surveillance-051121.pdf

In the peak fortnight of the outbreak to date (25 August to 7 September), the COVID-19 case rate among 2-dose vaccinated people was 49.5 per 100,000 while in unvaccinated people it was 561 per 100,000, a more than 10-fold difference. The rates of COVID-19 ICU admissions or deaths peaked in the fortnight 8 September to 21 September at 0.9 per 100,000 in 2-dose vaccinated people compared to 15.6 per 100,000 in unvaccinated people, a greater than 16-fold difference.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I am not saying we are at a peak, I am saying (IN NSW) there are some early signs we may be.

you said this:

There’s positive signs that NSW has peaked. Adding RATs to the numbers from today will skew that, I hope they keep reporting the PCR positivity data in isolation.

17.5% of NSW ICU beds currently occupied by a Covid patient.
Hospitals here are going to be fine.View attachment 1309436

how is saying "its peaked" not saying its at its peak?

 

[owen87]

If we can keep consistency in PCR testing

But that’s the point. They aren’t.

 

[Maddhew]

you said this:



how is saying "its peaked" not saying its at its peak?

Perhaps I could have slipped a 'may' in there, but the 'early positive signs' should be enough for most people to comprehend that I wasn't categorically declaring a peak.

But people hear hear what they want to hear.

 

[Maddhew]

But that’s the point. They aren’t.

This is not becoming circular...good bye

 

[owen87]

This is not becoming circular...good bye

You’re the one making the claims here…

 

[Maddhew]

youre telling us we are at the peak today however. you are aware you're the only one making this call - even conservative media are not

NSW might be past its Omicron peak: top epidemiologist

New South Wales might be past its Omicron peak and could soon be followed by other states and territories, according to a leading epidemiologist.

www.google.com.au

conservative media are: but please attack the source and not SkyNews

 

[Financialpanther]

NSW might be past its Omicron peak: top epidemiologist

New South Wales might be past its Omicron peak and could soon be followed by other states and territories, according to a leading epidemiologist.

www.google.com.au

conservative media are: but please attack the source and not SkyNews

Cynical me suggests media will get a lot more clicks on optimistic content than negative right now.

 

[Maddhew]

Cynical me suggests media will get a lot more clicks on optimistic content than negative right now.

You would be wrong, which is evidenced in people’s reactions in this thread when anything optimistic is posted.

There’s is a dimwit that comes in daily to blame Scomo for the daily deaths numbers.

Covid is seemingly the most exciting thing that has happened in a lot of people’s lives. They’re addicted to it, some will struggle to cope when it’s over, which is hopefully soon.

 

[owen87]

They’re addicted to it, some will struggle to cope when it’s over, which is hopefully soon.

A lot of the anti-science sovereign citizen conspiracy types will be very upset indeed. They want their freedums back but they've got no idea what to do with them.

 

[Maddhew]

A lot of the anti-science sovereign citizen conspiracy types will be very upset indeed. They want their freedums back but they've got no idea what to do with them.

It will be worse for those that have developed an infantile sense of dependence on their State Governments.

 

[Chief]

Where's that roll-eyes react... ?

 

[owen87]

It will be worse for those that have developed an infantile sense of dependence on their State Governments.

Ah yes. Those sheeple right?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

NSW might be past its Omicron peak: top epidemiologist

New South Wales might be past its Omicron peak and could soon be followed by other states and territories, according to a leading epidemiologist.

www.google.com.au

conservative media are: but please attack the source and not SkyNews

skynews is the source - given the quality of their experts on things like climate change, HCQ, horse meds, and us election fraud, i'll give this one a miss

 

[Crankyhawk]

If your guess is correct, I'd argue that's a little misleading and maybe not necessary.

Unless someone like Crankyhawk can provide a valid reason why recovered cases should be included in the numbers.

Sorry I missed the question.
DHS seem patients to be clear ie no longer infective at day 7 post diagnosis (this is complicated if people hold off for many days to get tested)
In my hospital setting though they are only deemed not infectious if their symptoms have resolved as well; otherwise it is up to day 14 post diagnosis.
Being cleared ie no longer infectious is not the same as recovered. This was shown with the way numbers had been reported (50 in icu and another 50 cleared but still in icu)
I noticed the covid live had a bump up on vic icu between 5-6 Jan. I presume it’s more to highlight the total burden of care caused by covid.
Similarly I don’t think the hospitalised numbers include those admitted for covid but are no longer infectious yet still not well enough to discharge
I would be interested to see if hospital in the home count towards “hospitalised” number (because when you look at my hospital system the HITH admission looks similar to the in hospital admission). This would mean our “medical obstetrics in the home” Telehealth would count to hospital numbers.

Obviously I hope this is not the case as it dilutes the utility of the hospitalised numbers

 

[Crankyhawk]

It will be worse for those that have developed an infantile sense of dependence on their State Governments.

Well we can’t trust the dumb* federal government

 

[GhostofJimJess]

I think the government(s) don't want to pull this back in case people view the other precautions as not required (such as mask wearing). Personally I view check in as now useless and there is not much point in continuing it.

Yeah, I reckon the psychology of all this is really interesting. I’m sure we all know people within our particular orbits who are very impressionable and so desperate for things to resemble the old normal that their risk behaviour will immediately increase on the mere whiff of relaxed restrictions. I can’t blame them to a certain point, but often these forms of social austerity does need to be a little overboard to accommodate for those who just can’t comprehend what could potentially unfold if we all drop our guard simultaneously.

 

[Chief]

I think the government(s) don't want to pull this back in case people view the other precautions as not required (such as mask wearing). Personally I view check in as now useless and there is not much point in continuing it.

I think check in will be good data for future study of the pandemic. Keep it up.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

There’s is a dimwit

Yes, there is.

 

[sr36]

Anyone else see a potential problem basing how omicron will go in Australia (with not much Herd immunity but plenty of Vaccinated) on experiance of other communities like the UK (which have significant herd immunity - albeit obtaned at a cost in more deaths)

our r0 seems to be at world record right now

(Hopefully this is wrong, but are we assuming a bit too much)

Immunity gained by having caught Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta etc isn't showing much difference to vaccination in terms of transmission, or hospitalisation. So that shouldn't change the curve - what might change the curve is that Australians are likely to be more cautious - should lessen the gradient, but also elongate the curve.

 

[Pessimistic]

Immunity gained by having caught Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta etc isn't showing much difference to vaccination in terms of transmission, or hospitalisation. So that shouldn't change the curve - what might change the curve is that Australians are likely to be more cautious - should lessen the gradient, but also elongate the curve.

we don’t know, but we have a few months of summer up our sleeve too

 

[sr36]

we don’t know, but we have a few months of summer up our sleeve too

I think the east coast may have twin peaks - one before school is back and one after. Hopefully done by football season.

 

[Maddhew]

skynews is the source - given the quality of their experts on things like climate change, HCQ, horse meds, and us election fraud, i'll give this one a miss

I’ll help you, careful though echo chamber door is opening for a sec.


But University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely has claimed the state might already have reached peak outbreak caseloads.

“NSW, I think, is at the peak and starting to come down or about to, Victoria is about to get to the peak, ACT is about to get to the peak,” he told Sunrise on Monday.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I’ll help you, careful though echo chamber door is opening for a sec.


But University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely has claimed the state might already have reached peak outbreak caseloads.

“NSW, I think, is at the peak and starting to come down or about to, Victoria is about to get to the peak, ACT is about to get to the peak,” he told Sunrise on Monday.

so one guy and you. congrats. you have one friend

 

[Maddhew]

Ah yes. Those sheeple right?

You can try and paint me as that guy if you want, but you’d be wrong.

 

[Maddhew]

Immunity gained by having caught Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta etc isn't showing much difference to vaccination in terms of transmission, or hospitalisation. So that shouldn't change the curve - what might change the curve is that Australians are likely to be more cautious - should lessen the gradient, but also elongate the curve.

Can you please explain the elongated curve to owen78 ? He thinks you cannot reach a peak in cases until almost everyone has had Covid.