Current Disappearance of 3yo William Tyrrell * The foster mother has been recommended for charges of pervert the course of justice & interfere with a corpse

[Kurve]

Criminal charges the former foster parents currently face as at 15 April 2022 include:

• Apprehended Violence Orders on both (AVOs)
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster mother *Not Guilty
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster father *Not Guilty
• 2 x charges of assault against a child on former foster mother *Guilty
• 1 x charge of assault against a child on former foster father
• Stalking &/or Intimidation on both
• Dummy bidding real estate fraud *Guilty

TIMELINE

Where's William Tyrrell? - The Ch 10 podcast (under Coroner's subpoena)

Operation Arkstone

 

[jason_recliner]

An abductor would have to be very lucky, there was also the foster father coming and going from that property. They were running the very real risk of not just being seen but getting trapped in that street.

Lucky but not exceptionally so. William was 4. A man could pick him up and put him in a car in well under a minute. Maybe it was planned, maybe it was opportunistic. There are 25,000,000 people in Australia, everywhere all the time. Unfortunately, from time to time circumstances align such that sick predators are able to access victims with no witnesses and leave the scene.

 

[Kurve]

Many people could have known the family was to be there and there were empty buildings nearby. They were expected just came early. William disappeared on the expected day. People in country towns notice everything and there were a fair few sex offenders around. That guy in W A was able to get Cleo Smith without being seen. I still don’t know how he did it from a small tent, without the child waking and screaming her head off. My grandmother boasted to everyone in a lead up to a visit from the children. Maybe word got out.

The empty buildings has always given me the jeevies in the sense of wondering who might have been hiding in them and watching the property.

IMO the Cleo Smith case though was different in that she was taken in the middle of the night out of an open campgrounds where there was a history of prowlers sneaking around on nefarious agenda. There was also evidence around the tent that someone else had been there and his car was spotted coming out of area early hours of the morning.

 

[Lady O]

If we are giving our opinions on the most likely causes of his disappearance, I would say:

1. He wandered off and has succumbed without his body ever being found. I think the recent search only 900mtrs from where he went missing highlights that the searches were confined to the forest area not more than about 500 metres from where he was last seen. So it is still a possibility that his remains will eventually be found. I think the most likely scenario is that he drowned in one of the small but deep creeks or dams.

2. Abduction, by:
a) Friendly abductor, who has taken him to a new home where he is being raised.
b) Neighbourhood abductor, someone from the subdivision or someone visiting.
c) Random abductor, someone passing Benaroon Drive and saw WT and picked him up.

3. Accidental death, where a person has removed his body to protect themselves from prosecution for an unknown reason ( if a stranger - drink driving, unlicensed driving, etc).

4. Other??

 

[kat1234]

I don't think so. Abductions are rare but they definitely do occur. The usually sick and evil motives are well understood. Parents covering up an accident by disposing of the body and faking an abduction? I cannot think of one example or plausible motive.

“Parents covering up an accident by disposing of the body and faking an abduction? I cannot think of one example or plausible motive.”

JonBenet? I think that’s a good example. But as we know her body was found in the family home.

 

[Pies1990]

Pushing an accident theory isn't really where I want to go but it makes as much sense as a random stranger abduction on a huge rural block at the end of a dead end street

That’s my dilemma too. Even though the CS abduction was a very risky and what you’d normally think impossible, WT went missing during the day and IMO cars would’ve been heard or cars/people seen. And how would they pick a street where it was a dead end, out of town.
Whatever has happened, it’s a sneaky act by someone. The fact that the dogs got no scent beyond the property seems to indicate he didn’t walk off

 

[Kurve]

Jon Benet?

JonBenet's family was cleared of involvement by DNA.

 

[DropBearess]

JonBenet's family was cleared of involvement by DNA.

That's always puzzled me. How can family DNA profiles be eliminated when familial DNA would have to be all over her.

 

[Kurve]

That's always puzzled me. How can family DNA profiles be eliminated when familial DNA would have to be all over her.

Faik, it was where the stranger DNA was and that it was in multiple places including under fingernails.

 

[kat1234]

Both the FM and FF said the bruising was from a fall...

There were two versions, officially, as were written about in Caroline Overington’s book, but Ben (the case worker) from FACS documented that WT fell on the coffee table when climbing on FFFC when she was having tea.

CO recommended going with that version as “Ben takes good notes.”

IMO I don’t think FFFC has given the child a black eye. I understand WT received hospital care for the injury and I’m sure the medical staff are very familiar with the different types of childhood injuries and which ones look suspicious and which ones don’t match up with the caregiver’s account of events.

 

[kat1234]

That’s my dilemma too. Even though the CS abduction was a very risky and what you’d normally think impossible, WT went missing during the day and IMO cars would’ve been heard or cars/people seen. And how would they pick a street where it was a dead end, out of town.
Whatever has happened, it’s a sneaky act by someone. The fact that the dogs got no scent beyond the property seems to indicate he didn’t walk off

IMO he definitely didn’t walk off. If we go with the dog theory, he was put in a car.
But there were no cars seen in the street apart from FFFC later triggered *memories*.

And the community search for the lost boy was so significant that police knew early on there was human intervention. Homicide was involved super early on.

 

[kat1234]

Faik, it was where the stranger DNA was and that it was in multiple places including under fingernails.

Do you have a link supporting this? TIA

 

[Kurve]

Do you have a link supporting this? TIA

It's off topic but there's a dedicated thread here.

JonBenet Ramsey

 

[Pies1990]

IMO he definitely didn’t walk off. If we go with the dog theory, he was put in a car.
But there were no cars seen in the street apart from FFFC later triggered *memories*.

And the community search for the lost boy was so significant that police knew early on there was human intervention. Homicide was involved super early on.

I’m having trouble understanding how the FFFC thought straight away “somebody took him”, but later on suddenly tells police there were 2 cars. I’m sure her mind would be racing thinking if he was taken, then how? I’m surprised she didn’t mention the cars earlier?

 

[Awakening]

IIRC, there were a few other children living in that street.

So I suppose it's possible that someone had been lurking in that area unnoticed on and off for days or weeks or months. Using the thick bushland as a cover.

Maybe they were biding their time to snatch a child, any child, and unfortunately it was William who crossed their path at the right moment.

 

[CodyRose]

There were two versions, officially, as were written about in Caroline Overington’s book, but Ben (the case worker) from FACS documented that WT fell on the coffee table when climbing on FFFC when she was having tea.

CO recommended going with that version as “Ben takes good notes.”

IMO I don’t think FFFC has given the child a black eye. I understand WT received hospital care for the injury and I’m sure the medical staff are very familiar with the different types of childhood injuries and which ones look suspicious and which ones don’t match up with the caregiver’s account of events.

Tea again

 

[Poppy Penny]

Sure, so let's all find out everything about the case after a trial.

IMO he definitely didn’t walk off. If we go with the dog theory, he was put in a car.
But there were no cars seen in the street apart from FFFC later triggered *memories*.

And the community search for the lost boy was so significant that police knew early on there was human intervention. Homicide was involved super early on.

Maybe a planned ‘hand over‘ with knowledge? Still alive maybe?

 

[Lady O]

The fact that the dogs got no scent beyond the property seems to indicate he didn’t walk off

There are lots of reasons why the dog didn't find his trail outside of the driveway. Yes, he might have been taken in a car. But remember, the dog didn't arrive for 2 hours and by that time a lot of people had been over the street looking for him, making it difficult for the dog to pick up a scent. If WT went off down the road, rather than the footpath, then that is a difficult surface for a dog to follow, especially with a lot of overlaying scent and vehicles coming and going. I put it at no 1 because I still think the most likely scenario is the most likely.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

There are lots of reasons why the dog didn't find his trail outside of the driveway. Yes, he might have been taken in a car. But remember, the dog didn't arrive for 2 hours and by that time a lot of people had been over the street looking for him, making it difficult for the dog to pick up a scent. If WT went off down the road, rather than the footpath, then that is a difficult surface for a dog to follow, especially with a lot of overlaying scent and vehicles coming and going. I put it at no 1 because I still think the most likely scenario is the most likely.

I sort of agree with the wandered-off theory. May have seen an animal and followed it, fell into a deep ditch or creek. The bright red outfit should have been seen anywhere though, even under water unless it was really deep. Wouldn't they have checked watercourses in the area though? When a kid goes missing on a property the first place they check is the dam .
Any disused mine shafts in the area (I've no idea if there's ever been mining there). Or caves? Often the entrances are overgrown and hardly visible but a small child could slip into a tiny crack. If he was knocked out by a fall he wouldn't have been able to respond to people calling him.

Abduction does seem extraordinarily opportunistic - do paedophiles hang out in remote dead-end roads on the offchance?

Yet murder is unexplainable in any context.

 

[Lady O]

I sort of agree with the wandered-off theory. May have seen an animal and followed it, fell into a deep ditch or creek. The bright red outfit should have been seen anywhere though, even under water unless it was really deep. Wouldn't they have checked watercourses in the area though? When a kid goes missing on a property the first place they check is the dam .
Any disused mine shafts in the area (I've no idea if there's ever been mining there). Or caves? Often the entrances are overgrown and hardly visible but a small child could slip into a tiny crack. If he was knocked out by a fall he wouldn't have been able to respond to people calling him.

Abduction does seem extraordinarily opportunistic - do paedophiles hang out in remote dead-end roads on the offchance?

Yet murder is unexplainable in any context.

Yes, but as we have seen lately, you can always be surprised. Can you believe little AJ was found only 500m from where he went missing, with so many people searching for him? If he hadn't been spotted from the helicopter, maybe he wouldn't have been found either. They decided WT would be unlikely to go uphill as children 'don't do' this and he had asthma. So I think the search was probably not extensive in that direction. I doubt he was looked for in the direction of Kendall, but there is a river only 1.5km from Benaroon Dr. They also decided early on that he had been abducted, so perhaps after the initial search of the bush land without result, they put their resources into tracking down the abductor.

There has been two separate people in the last few years in my local area who have gone missing and after extensive searches, their remains have eventually been found 500 & 300mtrs from where they were last seen and this is not a scrubby or forest area.

 

[CodyRose]

Pushing an accident theory isn't really where I want to go but it makes as much sense as a random stranger abduction on a huge rural block at the end of a dead end street

Maybe not a stranger some one he knew

 

[CodyRose]

My son constantly fell and bruised himself as a toddler. They are impetuous, excitable, sometimes disobedient, and don't look where they're going and fall against furniture etc. It certainly sounds as if William was that sort of child.

Left handedness can make kids more “clumsy” as the world is right handed.

 

[CodyRose]

Lucky but not exceptionally so. William was 4. A man could pick him up and put him in a car in well under a minute. Maybe it was planned, maybe it was opportunistic. There are 25,000,000 people in Australia, everywhere all the time. Unfortunately, from time to time circumstances align such that sick predators are able to access victims with no witnesses and leave the scene.

Isn’t there a trail through the forest to the cemetry

 

[Kurve]

Maybe not a stranger some one he knew

Still left with the same question of how they got in and out of that court without being seen.

If the Coroner comes back with the suggestion that he might have been missing off the property for longer than the FM calculations, it is possible he wandered off. They can make fast time. I took a friends little boy shopping about the same age as William, only took my eyes off him for a minute and when I turned around he was gone. I panicked and ran out of the shop into a huge carpark and there he was, walking slightly behind another lady who had the same colour hair as mine and wearing a very similar long black coat. I never sprinted so hard in all my life, three more seconds and they would have been out of my line of sight.

Point is, it was terrifying how fast that happened and they were nearly out of the carpark, at least 60m.

 

[Awakening]

I think it's possible he wandered off and was never found. With all due respect to searchers and the dogs, I think sometimes we overestimate what they can do. I'm not putting down their skills just pointing out that a search can be extremely difficult but especially in the area they were in. I've seen dogs do amazing things but in another case the same dog can't detect the scent.

Kids are unpredictable too. They are changing and evolving all the time. One minute they are crawling and cruising furniture, next minute walking independently. One day they are afraid to climb a tree but the next day trying to jump from the top of play equipment. At least that's my experience of having 2 very active boys.

Based on the information publicly available, I suspect William was gone for longer than the FFC cared to admit to herself or anyone else. I don't blame her for that, I'm not a perfect parent. You can be super vigilant with your kids, participating in lots of activities with them, and then you stop to go to the toilet, get distracted by toys on the floor and stop to pick them up, or you stop to make a cup of tea and getting engrossed in a conversation with your mum who you haven't seen for months. You can see your foster daughter and you can hear your foster son roaring and jumping around. I suspect when she suddenly noticed the silence, he had been silent for a while. Not seconds but minutes.

At that age my boys had 2 speeds: turtle and flat out. They were either refusing to walk, stopping to look at every ant or would take off at break neck speed and could cover a fair distance in a short time. The oldest was FAST, and now regularly wins or places in cross country events.

 

[jason_recliner]

I suspect when she suddenly noticed the silence, he had been silent for a while. Not seconds but minutes.

This. It would take a me a while to register that noises I heard coming from the play room or yard had ceased. And then a while longer for me to decide that something isn't right and go check - it's not like kids are never quiet, so he could just be having a quiet moment. That's easily long enough for a child to wander off a long way, or for somebody to take him/her a long way in a car.

I still consider abduction by vehicle a sadly likely possibility. I'm not convinced that the timeframe is as tight as has been generally accepted, and that people would notice and be able to recall every single car coming and going over a period, even on a quiet country street. But wandering off and/or abduction on foot is also a possibility IMO. As has been said, sniffer dogs are amazing but not infallible.