Covid-19 Welcome to Freedom

[sr36]

If you are interested, the NSW COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has published another weekly report. The trends I highlighted towards vaxxed being hospitalised and in ICU over non-vaxxed has continued.

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Note 1 : no data available 19/12/2021 or 26/12/2021
Note 2 : Vaxxed means at least two doses

For context

According to current evidence, when vaccinated you:​

​

1. Can still get SARS-CoV-2. Of course you can. Vaccines aren't an invisible shield to stop viruses entering your body.​

2. Have less chance of developing Covid-19 from this infection. The vaccine has primed your body to recognise the virus and develop antibodies.​

3. Have less chance of passing on SARS-CoV-2 through lower viral load and shorter time to kill off the virus.​

4. Have less chance of going to hospital if you do develop Covid-19.​

5. Have less chance of going into ICU if you do go to hospital.​

6. Have less chance of dying.​

The trend that you're noticing should continue. As more unvaxed get Omicron, the unvaxed 5% will see a drop in ICU rates, because immunity in that group will rise.

But that data is still showing that approx 5% unvaxed are making up 40% of those in ICU. It's very significant.

If you look at it as ratios, without the vaccine, you'd expect these two groups to have a ratio of 1:19 in ICU which is equal to 4:76. But the actual ratio is approx 4:6. So that would suggest that for every 6 vaxed people in ICU, 70 vaxed people have avoided ICU due to the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Earlier when the percentages were even more in favour of vaxed (probably due to at the time there being less immunity in the unvaxed group) you were looking at a truer and even higher proportion of people avoiding ICU due to the vaccine.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Truth! (haha)

When we got out 2nd shots, wifey was fine but I was crook for 2 days. Told her I'm like a finely tuned F1 race car, going over a speed hump will cause some issues, and as more of a Datsun 180B she wouldn't understand

Going through this exact scenario right now. In the space of a fortnight Mrs Goodman has done a 50 hour labour, c-section and a side effect-free booster.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

NSW data is much better quality. Covid Live is picking Vic data up from the Vic government media releases. Last year it was a bit hit and miss whether each media release included the split of vaxxed/non-vaxxed in hospital and ICU - hence the missing dates. Since Jan 1 they haven't reported it at all. So it's not current.

Their data also looks a bit screwy. The hospitalised rate for vaxxed went from 9% on 13 Oct to 48% on 31 Dec - which is a similar trend to NSW.
The ICU rate for vaxxed went from 2% on 13 Oct to 23% on 10 Dec which again is similar to NSW. But then 4 days later that number dropped to 6% then to 0% on 31 Dec. Why would the hospitalisation % be trending up but the ICU % be trending down to zero? And why would the numbers be so different to NSW?

The previous amount of people in the ICU was 84 , of which an amazing 6.7 people were fully vacced. ( yes they quoted 8% of the 84 maybe rounded a little.)
When the next number was 54 i guess its feasible that 7 or the 30 no longer in ICU were fully vaccinated.

There are still only 121 in ICU in Victoria and 1096 Hospitalised.
Its odd it hasn't spiralled upward like NSW.

 

[Crankyhawk]

NSW data is much better quality. Covid Live is picking Vic data up from the Vic government media releases. Last year it was a bit hit and miss whether each media release included the split of vaxxed/non-vaxxed in hospital and ICU - hence the missing dates. Since Jan 1 they haven't reported it at all. So it's not current.

Their data also looks a bit screwy. The hospitalised rate for vaxxed went from 9% on 13 Oct to 48% on 31 Dec - which is a similar trend to NSW.
The ICU rate for vaxxed went from 2% on 13 Oct to 23% on 10 Dec which again is similar to NSW. But then 4 days later that number dropped to 6% then to 0% on 31 Dec. Why would the hospitalisation % be trending up but the ICU % be trending down to zero? And why would the numbers be so different to NSW?

I think you have me on ignore but does the site say 0% or a horizontal dash (ie no data)

 

[sr36]

But vaxxed are also getting Omicron in substantial numbers so shouldn't their natural immunity should also rise? The last data from NSW on 1 Jan was that 70.9% of cases were in fully vaxxed. They have now stopped reporting on it.

Immunity will be rising in both groups. But the vaxed group are starting from a higher level of immunity. As it spreads, the unvaxed group are catching up. So the two different groups are increasing at different rates, thus the ICU rates are shifting in the direction you're pointing out.

The easiest way to imagine it is to imagine everyone catches Omicron. Once those cases are resolved, with either recovery or death, from then on you'd expect both groups to have the same ICU percentage as their percentage of the population.

So as Omicron spreads, we'll continue to move in the direction of the trend you're noticing. A gradually higher percentage of ICU cases will be vaxed. If nothing changes in terms of virus or vaccine (very unlikely), we'll gradually trend towards 95% in ICU being vaxed.

 

[bourbons]

Going through this exact scenario right now. In the space of a fortnight Mrs Goodman has done a 50 hour labour, c-section and a side effect-free booster.

Ooof. Solid fortnight, best of luck to you both!

 

[sr36]

Another factor is that as omicron is so infectious but relatively less virulent the numbers might include quite a lot of 'incidentals'. ie patients who are hospitalised or in ICU for some other reason but happen to test positive. It's not like the usual causes of hospitalisation and ICU have gone away. As omicron cases increase we would see those trends as it reflects the general population rather than vaxxed/non-vaxxed numbers.

It's at a stage where none of the data is particularly reliable, right through from case numbers to hospitalisations.

I think anti-vaxxers should be pushing really hard for covid recoverees to count and be mandate free. As at the moment, the lowest risk group in the community, by a mile, in terms of both spread and hospital inundation, aren't the vaxed, it's those who have recovered from a case - regardless of vax status.

 

[Osho]

It's at a stage where none of the data is particularly reliable, right through from case numbers to hospitalisations.

I think anti-vaxxers should be pushing really hard for covid recoverees to count and be mandate free. As at the moment, the lowest risk group in the community, by a mile, in terms of both spread and hospital inundation, aren't the vaxed, it's those who have recovered from a case - regardless of vax status.

The web is full of mixed information on vaccination versus naturally acquired immunity levels. See the link below as an eg, there are plenty of others like it, and others still based on certain studies, suggesting vaccine immunity is stronger and longer than natural infection, by virtue of antibody measurements. T cells not always mentioned. Where can one get a categorical reliable source on this question, as I would have assumed natural infection, if one survives, gives more comprehensive protection, but there is lots of contrary information out there.

COVID-19: Disease-induced (natural) immunity, vaccination or hybrid immunity?

If you’ve had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?

www.nebraskamed.com

 

[Pessimistic]

Serious question
If immunity catching and recovering from a mild form of a virus ‘family’ can vary from little to strong immunity, why is a vaccine any different? Surely a vaccine fits the description of ‘a mild form of a disease’ and people react very differently to vaccine.

Is having a more adverse reaction to vaccine a sign of stronger immunity?

 

[sr36]

The web is full of mixed information on vaccination versus naturally acquired immunity levels. See the link below as an eg, there are plenty of others like it, and others still based on certain studies, suggesting vaccine immunity is stronger and longer than natural infection, by virtue of antibody measurements. T cells not always mentioned. Where can one get a categorical reliable source on this question, as I would have assumed natural infection, if one survives, gives more comprehensive protection, but there is lots of contrary information out there.

COVID-19: Disease-induced (natural) immunity, vaccination or hybrid immunity?

If you’ve had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?

www.nebraskamed.com

I don't think that there is any doubt that with Omicron, a past infection will be more effective at stopping transmission than the current vaccines - in the short term anyway.

In the long run with t cells, no-one really knows and it's going to be bloody hard to find out as so many have now had covid that you can't really isolate if any effect is from the vaccine or a past, possibly unknown, infection.

 

[awaremind]

It's at a stage where none of the data is particularly reliable, right through from case numbers to hospitalisations.

I think anti-vaxxers should be pushing really hard for covid recoverees to count and be mandate free. As at the moment, the lowest risk group in the community, by a mile, in terms of both spread and hospital inundation, aren't the vaxed, it's those who have recovered from a case - regardless of vax status.

To be honest because these guys don’t count and they want to force stick you with a medicine that keeps injuring people I know, it puts me off, and furthers my mistrust of the media.

 

[sr36]

To be honest because these guys don’t count and they want to force stick you with a medicine that keeps injuring people I know, it puts me off, and furthers my mistrust of the media.

I totally get the pushback against coercion. But injuries from covid are much more common and severe than from the vax and the vax undoubtedly reduces the likelihood of covid injuries (unless you've already had Omicron.) Don't get jabbed due to the coercion - get jabbed because it's the smart thing to do in terms of health, wealth and your social life. (I suppose the last two are coercion related.)

 

[awaremind]

I totally get the pushback against coercion. But injuries from covid are much more common and severe than from the vax and the vax undoubtedly reduces the likelihood of covid injuries (unless you've already had Omicron.) Don't get jabbed due to the coercion - get jabbed because it's the smart thing to do in terms of health, wealth and your social life. (I suppose the last two are coercion related.)

I’ll get the novafax, but Pfizer has caused serious cardio injuries for lots of people in my social sphere so he’ll no id rather die of COVID than choose that.

 

[sr36]

I’ll get the novafax, but Pfizer has caused serious cardio injuries for lots of people in my social sphere so he’ll no id rather die of COVID than choose that.

I hope it arrives soon. It'll reduce the number of unvaxed. Then add in those unvaxed who have recovered from Omicron who are better protected than vaxed who haven't had it, and the numbers will be so tiny that vax status really will have no reason to remain an issue for anyone.

 

[awaremind]

I hope it arrives soon. It'll reduce the number of unvaxed. Then add in those unvaxed who have recovered from Omicron who are better protected than vaxed who haven't had it, and the numbers will be so tiny that vax status really will have no reason to remain an issue for anyone.

In my age group the death rate in Australia for COVID is 1 in 5000 anyway. Not lying the amount of vaccine related serious injuries seems like 25-50% of people are being seriously harmed in my social groups. Maybe my friends are just very unlucky or maybe the authoritit’s are understating the risks.

 

[Osho]

I don't think that there is any doubt that with Omicron, a past infection will be more effective at stopping transmission than the current vaccines - in the short term anyway.

In the long run with t cells, no-one really knows and it's going to be bloody hard to find out as so many have now had covid that you can't really isolate if any effect is from the vaccine or a past, possibly unknown, infection.

I assume so, but where is this stated by those with the data if you can point me in the direction?

 

[sr36]

I assume so, but where is this stated by those with the data if you can point me in the direction?

I don't think it is stated anywhere. But we know the vaccine isn't stopping transmission, and we assume that the virus will result in enough Omicron specific antibodies to stop reinfection in the short term - as that's how are immune system responds to viruses.

 

[sr36]

The case numbers are just a rough indication. There would have been thousands every day turned away from testing centres or couldn't get hold of a RAT in the last month. The tests themselves are pretty unreliable. Positive results for RATs are self-reported so some people won't bother - or you can even report in someone else's name like what happened to NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard.

With hospitalisations, they have probably kept it simple so that every patient who tests positive is counted regardless of broken leg, drug overdose, stroke etc. They will have to put in protocols for anyone testing positive so the number will give an indication of the resourcing required. There might come a time when they relax those protocols.

With hospitalisations you also get a higher bar for admission so they don't get overloaded, meaning overall trends in that area aren't that reliable for that reason too.

 

[sr36]

It probably depends more on age.

The CDC uses ages 18-29 as a reference point of low risk. Children are even less risk than that. The death rates for the elderly look extreme but they are in line with death rates for those ages outside Covid.

View attachment 1314687

Yes for hospitalisations, but for spread it has generally been the 18-30 age group with the highest rates as they have bigger social networks and a higher percentage are in jobs with more social contact and less wfh opportunities, plus more of a propensity for risk taking behaviour. .

But hopefully there isn't quick re-infection and past infection brings all age groups who have had it and recovered down to close to zero for either hospital or spread for the coming months.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I think QLD was hospitalising every person testing +ve at one point.

Have you got evidence for the higher bar thing? You would hope A&E departments are not sending Covid patients home with Ibuprofen and a kick up the arse.

Again I know you are ignoring me but we do discharge from ED covid patients who aren’t needing oxygen, can walk and aren’t dehydrated.

 

[sr36]

I think QLD was hospitalising every person testing +ve at one point.

Have you got evidence for the higher bar thing? You would hope A&E departments are not sending Covid patients home with Ibuprofen and a kick up the arse.

Just an assumption on my behalf. If they're at capacity, there wouldn't be a choice, regardless of whether it is covid or some other condition, they've just got to set higher bars for admission and lower bars for exitting patients.

 

[sr36]

It's fairly standard practise for hospitals to juggle things around and run 'at capacity'. The new factor is Covid causing staff shortages. You have double or triple vaxxed staff having to isolate due to being a close contact. And some staff are unable to work because they are not vaxxed but might be recovered.

The measures are very blunt and reflect a 'we have to do something' mentality. Victoria cancelled IVF treatments but then reversed it after a public outcry. I was due to have an operation last week but my surgeon rang me to apologise and say it was postponed. His team are furloughed not because of Covid but because of the measures.

I'm sure there could be marginal improvements in hospital management and government policy, but it's just what covid has done all over the world to hospital systems for a couple of years. Australia did well to avoid it until there was a high level of vax and a milder strain. Some countries have gone through it 3 or 4 times as fresh waves have ripped through and overloaded the medical system again and again.

 

[pc79]

I assume so, but where is this stated by those with the data if you can point me in the direction?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

Page 23/24

 

[Osho]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

Page 23/24

Thank you.

 

[scoman]

A casual glance at statistics over the last few days and it seems the deaths of vaxxed v non-vaxxed is evening out.

Qld today - 7 vaxxed v 3 non-vaxxed
Qld Saturday - 9 vaxxed v 1 non-vaxxed
Qld Friday - 11 vaxxed v 2 non-vaxxed

NSW today - 28 vaxxed v 6 non-vaxxed

I believe the stats of people in ICU are closer to 50%, although that was just a quote from the NSW Premier. I'm curious if those stats are released.

We also know the chances of catching and passing on aren't much different either with Omricon. A new targeted booster might help, but there could be a new strain by them anyway, most likely even less deadly.

So while during the delta etc.. outbreaks vaccination was clearly beneficial and continues to play it's part, the arguments for continuing to mandate, mandate boosters, mass vaccination of children etc, are starting to lose traction. Surely this ends up becoming like the flu shot. We are encouraged to get one, it's updated with the latest strains, but we move on. Sooner rather than later I hope.