Cam Rayner

[RonnieRaven]

If

Fritsch was in the AA squad mate. not a one game wonder so not sure where the comparison comes from. You're kidding yourself if you don't think Fritsch isn't fetching a first rounder. He's only 25.

He's played good footy when we weren't a good team so not sure what your ideas are based on.

if you read my post I said he was a gun!
It’s not so much fritsch more about the position he plays.
Medium third fwd has les draft capital and why he was originally drafted where he was.

 

[srobbo]

Far too premature questioning this bloke. Was travelling nicely in 2020 then did an ACL last year, so I don’t think you can assess properly until mid year assuming he stays fit.

 

[Sphynx]

Far too premature questioning this bloke. Was travelling nicely in 2020 then did an ACL last year, so I don’t think you can assess properly until mid year assuming he stays fit.

Very strange definition of "travelling nicely".

He averaged under 10 touches and a goal a game in 2020 leading into the offseason he was supposedly going to "break out". I couldn't see it personally and still can't.

He just doesn't win enough of the ball.

Petracca was averaging 20 disposals a game at half forward, arguably the hardest role on the ground. In a similar role he got twice the amount of ball and kicked more goals.

His best season to date is probably his rookie season and it was nothing to write home about.

 

[Belnakor]

View attachment 1370172

Not exactly a star studded field is it, he was miles from a very average winner, and beat nobody of note.

Palmer had an outstanding first year actually, the problem was he did his ACL and he was a player who relied on his pace and lateral movement both of which were destroyed by his knee.

 

[danster168]

Around pick 10. and about 650-700

Fair enough. I think Fritsch would be worth slightly less than that but perhaps given the Adam Saad trade of pick 13(net value) and over $600kpa average contract, you might be just about right.

I suppose there are usually two distinct markets for a player at any given time. There is the contract price a top team - normally with a tight salary cap - will pay, and then there is the price a team like North Melbourne 2021, or Carlton 2020 will pay, the teams with more salary cap space. So Fritsch might attract a new contract around $550kpa at Melbourne and possibly as you say up to $650-700k if a club like North could get their hands on him. And that type of contract for a 25-26yo probably gets a pick around the 10-12 mark in a trade.

The last 15 pick 10’s to 2019 were:

Tom Green, Nick Blakey, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Bowes, Harry McKay, Nakia Cockatoo, Nathan Freeman, Joe Daniher, Liam Sumner, Daniel Gorringe, Jake Melksham, Phil Davis, Patrick Dangerfield, Nathan Brown(the Collingwood version), Marcus Drum.

Of the 15, Sumner, Gorringe, Drum as far as I know had every chance and didn’t make it. O’Brien for now doesn’t look great but is getting a game.

Freeman, Cockatoo have been severely impacted by injuries though Cockatoo is now playing well at Brisbane. This could equally happen to a player you acquire in a trade.

Brown, Melksham had solid enough AFL careers without becoming gun players.

Bowes, Blakey, look like being really good AFL footballers.

Green, McKay, Daniher, Dangerfield and possibly Davis all are or were or should be marquee contract types above the value of Fritsch. I think this shows your 5% chance of pick 10 being worth more than Fritsch is a bit out. More like a 33% chance at least.

So of the 15 you probably have 5 marquee contract types, 2 tracking as 6-12 ranked type players in a decent team - about where Fritsch sits imo, 2-3 others just below that, and probably 5 who never amounted to much.

Fritsch appears to be signed to a 5 year contract at Melbourne to run to about age 30, so they clearly rate him as a very important player.

If a team acquired Fritsch in the next off season, they get a ready made 26yo, but against that he will have already spent two of his approximately 6 prime years as an AFL player, so this might reduce his trade value a little from where he sits amongst all the last 15 pick 10’s, which I would say is slightly above the median, suggesting he might have been a reasonable pick 8 or so in his draft year. The lesser performed Rayner has all of his prime years ahead of him. And he is getting close to entering that period. He gets a year or two now where we will get a clearer indication of his worth. Fritsch as a 22yo wouldn’t have attracted a first round pick in a trade, whereas I think Rayner almost certainly would.

But, we shall see.

Good post. Now we're getting into it. I agree on Danger, Green and Mckay but Daniher and Davis are behind Fritsch in my opinion. But its not egregious to put them ahead of Fritsch. I think you're not quite giving Fritsch the respect he deserves. He's one of the best forwards in the league and 59 goals in a season for a medium forward is elite.

So to trade Fritsch for pick 10, using that data, there is a 7/15 (46%) chance that pick 10 would be a spud or simply a guy that is injury prone (Sumner, Gorringe, Drum, Nathan Brown, O'Brien, Freeman, Cockatoo). A 46% chance of losing one of your best player is a deal no Melb fan would ever do/want. Of the other guys there's maybe 4 players from the 15 that you could happily take over Fritsch (26%) and Melksham, Bowes and Blakey would be 3/15 (20%) players that would be worse than Fritsch. And Davis is about on par.

So in summary, if trading pick 10 for Fritsch there is a 10/15 chance that we'd pick up a worse player, with a 46% chance that we'd get a player that is worth nothing back.

Let's change the sample size of this debate and use pick 8 and pick 9 for Fritsch to see how it compares:

Pick 9
Last 15 to 2019 were: Liam Henry, Chayce Jones, Naughton, Will Brodie, Weideman, Darcy Moore, Salem, Vlastuin, Tomlinson, Prestia, Andrew Moore, Ziebell, McEvoy, Armitage, Mitch Clark.

I'd say 2/15 are better than Fritsch
Salem, Vlastuin, Ziebell are on par with Fritsch (3/15)
10/15 are worse: 66%

Pick 8
Serong, Tarry Thomas, Coffield, Griffin Logue, Ah Chee, Peter Wright, Luke Mcdonald, Sam Mayes, Billy Longer, Heppell, John Butcher, Tyron Vickery, Lachy Henderson, Ben Reid, Oakley Nicholls.

I'm reluctantly putting Heppell down as better. 1/15

T.Thomas are showing potential so I put him level with Fritsch. 1/15. Serong I would but he hasn't come on this year thus far so he deserves to be in the 'worst than Fritsch' category.

Worse than Fritsch 13/15 = 87%

Raynor has shown nothing yet in 4 seasons. No ability to kick goals an no ability to find the ball in the midfield. I think your Saad example is a good one. He got pick 13 but had showed something. I think Raynor would fetch a pick in the 20's and each additional season that he shows nothing probably adds 10 picks to that number.

I put this to you. Has Raynor showed anything more than Paddy Dow? Dow was pick 3 in the same draft as Raynor. If Paddy Dow was traded now, he'd probably only get a pick in the 40's. Do you agree? This is despite the same reasoning that you have to say that time is on his side etc. Comparing Raynor to Fritsch is no different to comparing Paddy Dow to Fritsch.

 

[master bate]

Remembering Rayner was very much labelled "ready to go" when he was drafted

Rayner ran a time trial before the draft that took him roughly a week to finish. He was always going to take time to get that up to scratch. Best case scenario was probably 2 preseasons.

I think he probably should’ve contributed more by year 3 but he was also doing a role in a good side by then so they couldn’t experiment.

I’d like to give him the next 10 weeks or so to see if he can start making a real impact. There’s just not quite enough same size through his first 3 years for me to make a true judgement.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Good post. Now we're getting into it. I agree on Danger, Green and Mckay but Daniher and Davis are behind Fritsch in my opinion. But its not egregious to put them ahead of Fritsch. I think you're not quite giving Fritsch the respect he deserves. He's one of the best forwards in the league and 59 goals in a season for a medium forward is elite.

So to trade Fritsch for pick 10, using that data, there is a 7/15 (46%) chance that pick 10 would be a spud or simply a guy that is injury prone (Sumner, Gorringe, Drum, Nathan Brown, O'Brien, Freeman, Cockatoo). A 46% chance of losing one of your best player is a deal no Melb fan would ever do/want. Of the other guys there's maybe 4 players from the 15 that you could happily take over Fritsch (26%) and Melksham, Bowes and Blakey would be 3/15 (20%) players that would be worse than Fritsch. And Davis is about on par.

So in summary, if trading pick 10 for Fritsch there is a 10/15 chance that we'd pick up a worse player, with a 46% chance that we'd get a player that is worth nothing back.

Let's change the sample size of this debate and use pick 8 and pick 9 for Fritsch to see how it compares:

Pick 9
Last 15 to 2019 were: Liam Henry, Chayce Jones, Naughton, Will Brodie, Weideman, Darcy Moore, Salem, Vlastuin, Tomlinson, Prestia, Andrew Moore, Ziebell, McEvoy, Armitage, Mitch Clark.

I'd say 2/15 are better than Fritsch
Salem, Vlastuin, Ziebell are on par with Fritsch (3/15)
10/15 are worse: 66%

Pick 8
Serong, Tarry Thomas, Coffield, Griffin Logue, Ah Chee, Peter Wright, Luke Mcdonald, Sam Mayes, Billy Longer, Heppell, John Butcher, Tyron Vickery, Lachy Henderson, Ben Reid, Oakley Nicholls.

I'm reluctantly putting Heppell down as better. 1/15

T.Thomas are showing potential so I put him level with Fritsch. 1/15. Serong I would but he hasn't come on this year thus far so he deserves to be in the 'worst than Fritsch' category.

Worse than Fritsch 13/15 = 87%

Raynor has shown nothing yet in 4 seasons. No ability to kick goals an no ability to find the ball in the midfield. I think your Saad example is a good one. He got pick 13 but had showed something. I think Raynor would fetch a pick in the 20's and each additional season that he shows nothing probably adds 10 picks to that number.

I put this to you. Has Raynor showed anything more than Paddy Dow? Dow was pick 3 in the same draft as Raynor. If Paddy Dow was traded now, he'd probably only get a pick in the 40's. Do you agree? This is despite the same reasoning that you have to say that time is on his side etc. Comparing Raynor to Fritsch is no different to comparing Paddy Dow to Fritsch.

To deal with the last point/question first. Dow has had severe cracks in his game shown up at AFL level, his often woeful kicking, and at times his appetite for the contest. He is currently playing good footy at VFL level but until he can demonstrate he can produce something more passable at AFL level, I think your assessment of him being worth a pick in the 40’s is about right. I will be interested to see how he goes next time he gets a run of AFL games but at this stage I am not bullish on him.

Rayner I just think you are misreading the signals, or at least you are reading them differently to me. In an earlier post I pointed out he was drafted with Zac Bailey, also a first round pick, also rated very highly by Brisbane because they traded picks 20(Coleman-Jones) and 25(Balta) and passed up plenty of other very good prospects to get him. Bailey and Rayner played very similar roles in the same system for their first 3 seasons, and returned roughly equivalent figures. Rayner a little more scoreboard impact, Bailey a few more possessions on average. When they both played in the 2019-2020 finals I would say Rayner had a bit more impact. I think they were both well set to break out in 2021, Bailey did, and Rayner did his knee. I think Bailey’s case shows that Rayner was actually tracking fine before doing his knee, despite not appearing too dominant. It doesn’t prove Rayner would have done as well as Bailey but it does show that within that Brisbane system, there was nothing to stop Rayner breaking out similarly in his 4th season. In the 2020 finals win v Richmond on the footy shows they were pointing out Rayner was really starting to assert himself. If you watch Brisbane games carefully as I do, and try to figure out the way they play, their forwards don’t possess the ball much or generally even take loads of shots at goal. Their mids follow the ball into the forward line and take loads of shots at goal and the slack is picked up by the forwards defending for the mids. It is not totally like this but moreso than most teams, perhaps every team.

With Fritsch I don’t think we are too far apart, but remember given most AFL footballers get about 6 prime seasons aged 24-29, after this season, 2 of his 6 bullets are spent. He has 4 shots left, and this has to limit his value a little compared to say the end of last season when he had 5 bullets left and had proven he could perform to a high level during his prime. On the same scale, these other guys have 6 bullets left, Dow, Rayner, and Bailey. This is partially what makes the likes of Luke Jackson and K. Pickett worth more than Bailey Fritsch in a trade, despite Fritsch outperforming them to date by any reasonable measure.

With your assessment of pick 9, Naughton, D Moore and Prestia are marquee wage types. Prestia won a B & F in a flag year, has performed brilliantly in finals and would currently be Richmond’s best pure midfielder. So I don’t know why you rate him below Fritsch. Overall he would be seen as a more valuable player than Fritsch though Fritsch has some prime years to show where he can get to yet. Ziebell maybe slightly below the Prestia level but club captain etc. I would say Ziebell could play Fritsch’s exact role in the Melbourne team very well, but there is nothing to say Fritsch could be anywhere near the midfielder Ziebell was.

Vlastuin and Salem are similar to Fritsch, very high standard in their roles, your 6-12th range most valuable players in a gun side in their prime. McEvoy I think ditto.

Armitage was no mug, remembering he plied his trade in the toughest theatre in the midfield. Mitch Clark could play but was a bit of a strange cat. Henry and Jones tracking well enough without shooting the lanterns out, but still too early to judge their overall value confidently. Tomlinson is a good player, bit of a square peg but he he looks very decent in the Melbourne backline. A Moore was an outright failure and Weideman and Brodie the jury remains out.

I would say in that group based on knowing what they have done and considering taking them in their mid 20’s, Fritsch would sit around the median.

Amongst the last 15 x pick 8’s I think Fritsch would rate more highly. But Thomas and Serong are tracking to be way ahead of Fritsch. Heppell, well, he is a bit like Ziebell lite I think, hard to put a precise value on him, I would possibly take Fritsch ahead of him. There are a few guys in there like Coffield, Logue, who have tracked well enough then hit stumbling blocks, but could be very decent yet.

Overall though, I think it is fair to say based on Fritsch’s career to date and reasonable extrapolations, he would have been worth a fringe top 10 pick(8-12) to capture his whole career, and a little lesser pick after this season to account for the fact two of his best years are gone.

 

[branedotorg]

Jack Watts is a good example. Did we really need to give him until he was 25 to realise that he was never going to amount to anything? I think most people knew after 2 seasons that he wasn't going to be the next Riewoldt.

with respect though if he'd been in a professional environment from day one it may have clicked for him, Watts' biggest issue imo was a lack of application, not talent.

I can say that because carlton also wasted a host of picks in the past 20 years by failing to develop them.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Good post. Now we're getting into it. I agree on Danger, Green and Mckay but Daniher and Davis are behind Fritsch in my opinion. But its not egregious to put them ahead of Fritsch. I think you're not quite giving Fritsch the respect he deserves. He's one of the best forwards in the league and 59 goals in a season for a medium forward is elite.

So to trade Fritsch for pick 10, using that data, there is a 7/15 (46%) chance that pick 10 would be a spud or simply a guy that is injury prone (Sumner, Gorringe, Drum, Nathan Brown, O'Brien, Freeman, Cockatoo). A 46% chance of losing one of your best player is a deal no Melb fan would ever do/want. Of the other guys there's maybe 4 players from the 15 that you could happily take over Fritsch (26%) and Melksham, Bowes and Blakey would be 3/15 (20%) players that would be worse than Fritsch. And Davis is about on par.

So in summary, if trading pick 10 for Fritsch there is a 10/15 chance that we'd pick up a worse player, with a 46% chance that we'd get a player that is worth nothing back.

Let's change the sample size of this debate and use pick 8 and pick 9 for Fritsch to see how it compares:

Pick 9
Last 15 to 2019 were: Liam Henry, Chayce Jones, Naughton, Will Brodie, Weideman, Darcy Moore, Salem, Vlastuin, Tomlinson, Prestia, Andrew Moore, Ziebell, McEvoy, Armitage, Mitch Clark.

I'd say 2/15 are better than Fritsch
Salem, Vlastuin, Ziebell are on par with Fritsch (3/15)
10/15 are worse: 66%

Pick 8
Serong, Tarry Thomas, Coffield, Griffin Logue, Ah Chee, Peter Wright, Luke Mcdonald, Sam Mayes, Billy Longer, Heppell, John Butcher, Tyron Vickery, Lachy Henderson, Ben Reid, Oakley Nicholls.

I'm reluctantly putting Heppell down as better. 1/15

T.Thomas are showing potential so I put him level with Fritsch. 1/15. Serong I would but he hasn't come on this year thus far so he deserves to be in the 'worst than Fritsch' category.

Worse than Fritsch 13/15 = 87%

Raynor has shown nothing yet in 4 seasons. No ability to kick goals an no ability to find the ball in the midfield. I think your Saad example is a good one. He got pick 13 but had showed something. I think Raynor would fetch a pick in the 20's and each additional season that he shows nothing probably adds 10 picks to that number.

I put this to you. Has Raynor showed anything more than Paddy Dow? Dow was pick 3 in the same draft as Raynor. If Paddy Dow was traded now, he'd probably only get a pick in the 40's. Do you agree? This is despite the same reasoning that you have to say that time is on his side etc. Comparing Raynor to Fritsch is no different to comparing Paddy Dow to Fritsch.

Out of interest what would you estimate Zac Bailey’s trade value to be in terms of a draft pick?

 

[Elmer_Judd]

What s this crap about Brisbane trading Rayner ? He is still contracted for a couple of years and they are not going to give him away now when his currency is at its lowest
?

I think he will be better as the season goes on, takes a while for most players to get their MOJO back after an ACL.

 

[danster168]

To deal with the last point/question first. Dow has had severe cracks in his game shown up at AFL level, his often woeful kicking, and at times his appetite for the contest. He is currently playing good footy at VFL level but until he can demonstrate he can produce something more passable at AFL level, I think your assessment of him being worth a pick in the 40’s is about right. I will be interested to see how he goes next time he gets a run of AFL games but at this stage I am not bullish on him.

Rayner I just think you are misreading the signals, or at least you are reading them differently to me. In an earlier post I pointed out he was drafted with Zac Bailey, also a first round pick, also rated very highly by Brisbane because they traded picks 20(Coleman-Jones) and 25(Balta) and passed up plenty of other very good prospects to get him. Bailey and Rayner played very similar roles in the same system for their first 3 seasons, and returned roughly equivalent figures. Rayner a little more scoreboard impact, Bailey a few more possessions on average. When they both played in the 2019-2020 finals I would say Rayner had a bit more impact. I think they were both well set to break out in 2021, Bailey did, and Rayner did his knee. I think Bailey’s case shows that Rayner was actually tracking fine before doing his knee, despite not appearing too dominant. It doesn’t prove Rayner would have done as well as Bailey but it does show that within that Brisbane system, there was nothing to stop Rayner breaking out similarly in his 4th season. In the 2020 finals win v Richmond on the footy shows they were pointing out Rayner was really starting to assert himself. If you watch Brisbane games carefully as I do, and try to figure out the way they play, their forwards don’t possess the ball much or generally even take loads of shots at goal. Their mids follow the ball into the forward line and take loads of shots at goal and the slack is picked up by the forwards defending for the mids. It is not totally like this but moreso than most teams, perhaps every team.

With Fritsch I don’t think we are too far apart, but remember given most AFL footballers get about 6 prime seasons aged 24-29, after this season, 2 of his 6 bullets are spent. He has 4 shots left, and this has to limit his value a little compared to say the end of last season when he had 5 bullets left and had proven he could perform to a high level during his prime. On the same scale, these other guys have 6 bullets left, Dow, Rayner, and Bailey. This is partially what makes the likes of Luke Jackson and K. Pickett worth more than Bailey Fritsch in a trade, despite Fritsch outperforming them to date by any reasonable measure.

With your assessment of pick 9, Naughton, D Moore and Prestia are marquee wage types. Prestia won a B & F in a flag year, has performed brilliantly in finals and would currently be Richmond’s best pure midfielder. So I don’t know why you rate him below Fritsch. Overall he would be seen as a more valuable player than Fritsch though Fritsch has some prime years to show where he can get to yet. Ziebell maybe slightly below the Prestia level but club captain etc. I would say Ziebell could play Fritsch’s exact role in the Melbourne team very well, but there is nothing to say Fritsch could be anywhere near the midfielder Ziebell was.

Vlastuin and Salem are similar to Fritsch, very high standard in their roles, your 6-12th range most valuable players in a gun side in their prime. McEvoy I think ditto.

Armitage was no mug, remembering he plied his trade in the toughest theatre in the midfield. Mitch Clark could play but was a bit of a strange cat. Henry and Jones tracking well enough without shooting the lanterns out, but still too early to judge their overall value confidently. Tomlinson is a good player, bit of a square peg but he he looks very decent in the Melbourne backline. A Moore was an outright failure and Weideman and Brodie the jury remains out.

I would say in that group based on knowing what they have done and considering taking them in their mid 20’s, Fritsch would sit around the median.

Amongst the last 15 x pick 8’s I think Fritsch would rate more highly. But Thomas and Serong are tracking to be way ahead of Fritsch. Heppell, well, he is a bit like Ziebell lite I think, hard to put a precise value on him, I would possibly take Fritsch ahead of him. There are a few guys in there like Coffield, Logue, who have tracked well enough then hit stumbling blocks, but could be very decent yet.

Overall though, I think it is fair to say based on Fritsch’s career to date and reasonable extrapolations, he would have been worth a fringe top 10 pick(8-12) to capture his whole career, and a little lesser pick after this season to account for the fact two of his best years are gone.

- The fact that Rayner was highly rated by Brisbane is irrelevant though. Paddy Dow was rated as the 3rd best kid in the draft. but now, it means nothing. The AFL community has written off Dow as a player and I don't think Rayner should be excused from this level of criticism either. not until he puts together a string of good games and consistency.

- Like other people have said. Guys like Rachele, Horne Francis etc. have shown more in the first 4 games of their careers than Rayner has shown in any of his first 4 seasons so I'm not sure why you're so comfortable to give him so much time to prove something? Good players just get things done regardless of whatever systems or team they play for. Rachele and Horne Francis are good examples of this.

- I hear what you're saying regarding the age of a recruit and their trade value. I do agree with this. I think he's got 7 years left. He's a skinny bloke, rangey type who tend to play for a long time. I think his trade value would be high, especially for a team in their premiership window. Imagine, if the dogs had Fritsch in the same forward line as Naughton.

- I do rate Prestia as a player but I think I rate him below Fritsch because midfielders grow on trees but forwards don't. Nothing on Prestia. I don't think Prestia has been in an AA squad before (?) and I also think that Fritsch's finals performance can't be glossed over. 6 in the grand final which hasn't been done in 24 years. I'll repeat that, 24 years. He also, kicked 4 in qualifying final.

- Regarding Ziebell, could? but hasn't. He's 31 and never has shown to have what Fritsch has. He's not as mobile, and not as dominant aerially, and not as good at ground level. Ziebell's a good overhead mark and a good kick but he doesn't have the zippiness of Fritsch. Fritsch isn't a midfielder so not sure why it matters that he can't play midfield. Either could most forwards.

- You mention Arimtage/Will Brodie/ Mitch Clark/ Tomlinson/Coffield/Logue/ Moore etc. but I'm not sure why? We're talking about one of the best forwards in the league, it's safe to say that these players never were or will never be one of the best in their position in the AFL.

- I don't think you can say Serong and Tarryn Thomas are tracking 'well ahead' of Fritsch. I think this comment means you're completely disrespecting how good of a player Fritsch is. At this stage, neither of these 2 players are near Fritch's level. Nor should they be, they're young. Tarryn Thomas has had a horrific start to the year and Serong has just been going average. If Fritsch had of been playing forward his whole career and not spent the first few years in the backline then I'm sure he would've had a couple of the 40 goal seasons next to his name before last years 59.

- To capture Fritsch's whole career, he would've been worth a top 5 pick. He's only in his 5th year because he was a mature aged recruit. He's been great from day 1, he's never missed a game basically, highly durable, and he's now our most dangerous forward. Interestingly, he was taken in the same draft as Rayner lol.

If the 2017 draft was done again:
In my opinion. And I think Rayner has no business being in the top 21 conversation. 22-30 he can be in that mix but the top 21 have all done much more and have all carved out extremely important roles and have shown to be good AFL players.

1. Naughton
2. Brayshaw
3. Tim Kelly
4. Fritsch
5. Zac Bailey
6. Oscar Allen
7. Cerra
8. Davies-Uniacke
9. Liam Ryan
10. Balta
11. Wil Powell
12. Starcevich
13. Sam Taylor
14. Dylan Moore
15. Liam Baker
16. Tom McCartin
17. Mihocek
18. Spargo
19. Worpel
20. Brent Daniels
21. Petty
-------------------------------------
22. Miers
23. Switkowski
24. Ben Paton
25. Xerrie
26. Ainsworth
27. Paton
28. Jack Higgins
29. Roarke Smith
30. Rayner
31. Nick Holman

I wouldn't mind seeing you rank the top 30.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

- The fact that Rayner was highly rated by Brisbane is irrelevant though. Paddy Dow was rated as the 3rd best kid in the draft. but now, it means nothing. The AFL community has written off Dow as a player and I don't think Rayner should be excused from this level of criticism either. not until he puts together a string of good games and consistency.

- Like other people have said. Guys like Rachele, Horne Francis etc. have shown more in the first 4 games of their careers than Rayner has shown in any of his first 4 seasons so I'm not sure why you're so comfortable to give him so much time to prove something? Good players just get things done regardless of whatever systems or team they play for. Rachele and Horne Francis are good examples of this.

- I hear what you're saying regarding the age of a recruit and their trade value. I do agree with this. I think he's got 7 years left. He's a skinny bloke, rangey type who tend to play for a long time. I think his trade value would be high, especially for a team in their premiership window. Imagine, if the dogs had Fritsch in the same forward line as Naughton.

- I do rate Prestia as a player but I think I rate him below Fritsch because midfielders grow on trees but forwards don't. Nothing on Prestia. I don't think Prestia has been in an AA squad before (?) and I also think that Fritsch's finals performance can't be glossed over. 6 in the grand final which hasn't been done in 24 years. I'll repeat that, 24 years. He also, kicked 4 in qualifying final.

- Regarding Ziebell, could? but hasn't. He's 31 and never has shown to have what Fritsch has. He's not as mobile, and not as dominant aerially, and not as good at ground level. Ziebell's a good overhead mark and a good kick but he doesn't have the zippiness of Fritsch. Fritsch isn't a midfielder so not sure why it matters that he can't play midfield. Either could most forwards.

- You mention Arimtage/Will Brodie/ Mitch Clark/ Tomlinson/Coffield/Logue/ Moore etc. but I'm not sure why? We're talking about one of the best forwards in the league, it's safe to say that these players never were or will never be one of the best in their position in the AFL.

- I don't think you can say Serong and Tarryn Thomas are tracking 'well ahead' of Fritsch. I think this comment means you're completely disrespecting how good of a player Fritsch is. At this stage, neither of these 2 players are near Fritch's level. Nor should they be, they're young. Tarryn Thomas has had a horrific start to the year and Serong has just been going average. If Fritsch had of been playing forward his whole career and not spent the first few years in the backline then I'm sure he would've had a couple of the 40 goal seasons next to his name before last years 59.

- To capture Fritsch's whole career, he would've been worth a top 5 pick. He's only in his 5th year because he was a mature aged recruit. He's been great from day 1, he's never missed a game basically, highly durable, and he's now our most dangerous forward. Interestingly, he was taken in the same draft as Rayner lol.

If the 2017 draft was done again:
In my opinion. And I think Rayner has no business being in the top 21 conversation. 22-30 he can be in that mix but the top 21 have all done much more and have all carved out extremely important roles and have shown to be good AFL players.

1. Naughton
2. Brayshaw
3. Tim Kelly
4. Fritsch
5. Zac Bailey
6. Oscar Allen
7. Cerra
8. Davies-Uniacke
9. Liam Ryan
10. Balta
11. Wil Powell
12. Starcevich
13. Sam Taylor
14. Dylan Moore
15. Liam Baker
16. Tom McCartin
17. Mihocek
18. Spargo
19. Worpel
20. Brent Daniels
21. Petty
-------------------------------------
22. Miers
23. Switkowski
24. Ben Paton
25. Xerrie
26. Ainsworth
27. Paton
28. Jack Higgins
29. Roarke Smith
30. Rayner
31. Nick Holman

I wouldn't mind seeing you rank the top 30.

Ok good stuff rating all the players like that. I like a man that puts his reputation on the line.

You criteria for ranking the players are clearly a bit different to mine, but that is fine.

First, Fritsch. Ok, let’s leave out his first 2 seasons, let’s say those are prior to his peak he played some backline, perhaps didn’t have his role sorted out as well and also needed to get accustomed to the level. So from 2020 onwards, in 44 games(2020 results adjusted) he has established:

• an average around 2.6 goals + goal assists in all games
• an average of around 12 disposals in all games
• he can perform very well on the biggest stages.

We can see this, as you would expect, is an improvement on his first 2 years where he played roughly 28 games as a forward(it is a bit hard to tell precisely but I think that will be roughly right judging by his game by game stats.). In those roughly 28 matches Fritsch averaged roughly 1.9 goals + goal assists. In those games as a 21-22yo he roughly averaged 14-15 disposals, so probably had more time up the field.

So let’s go by his 2020 onwards figures and say that is indicative of where he sits in his current role at his peak. Let’s compare that with other forwards who are often isolated deep, and tend to attract a lot of opposition attention, and see how he compares:

Charlie Cameron all games @ Brisbane Goals + Goal Assists = 2.6 ave. Disposals 11.4

Joe Daniher @ Brisbane Goals + Goal Assists = 2.6, disposals = 14

Tom Papley whole career Goals + Goal Assists = 2.3, disposals = 14

Lance Franklin whole career 3.6 G+GA, 15 disposals

Max King last 13 games 3.5 G+GA, 11.3 disposals *as a 21yo

Aaron Naughton since turning 21 years, now 22yo, 2.3 G + GA, 11 disposals

Jack Darling whole career 2.5 and 12

Josh Kennedy whole career 3 and 11

(Oscar Allen whole career 1.6 and 10

Cam Rayner whole career, almost all 18,19,20yo 1.3 and 11

Shai Bolton whole career 1.7 and 15)

Luke Breust whole career 2.8 and 14

Jack Gunston whole career 2.6 and 15

Taylor Walker whole career 3 and 13

Harry McKay since 2021 3.2 and 10

Jake Stringer whole career 2.4 and 13

Jordan deGoey since 2018 2.4 and 18

Jack Riewoldt whole career 3.0 and 12

Tom Hawkins whole career 2.9 and 12.4

Tom Lynch whole career 2.6 and 13

Jeremy Cameron whole career 3.0 and 12

Matt Taberner since 2020 2.7 and 12 *adjusted for 2020

Michael Walters whole career 2.3 and 17

Robbie Gray whole career 2.2 and 20

Ben Brown whole career 2.6 and 10.5

Apart from where stated I haven’t adjust those for 2020 whereas I did for Fritsch. But what I think it shows is that there are at least 20 players matching Fritsch for scoreboard impact + disposals packaged, either across their whole careers or for a relevant and significant recent period. So if you say he is one of the top forwards in the AFL it is probably more correct to say he is, in his prime, one of about the top 20 or so.

The other thing I will say about Fritsch is he had 2 great games in the finals series, but both were against teams who didn’t have great matchups for him due to age/ability/injury interrupted seasons. I don’t think this detracts from Fritsch overall but to me it says those finals are not truly indicative of where he sits at this stage and his overall record the last 40 odd games is a better guide. I will change my mind if he produces anything like that again against good players on top of their game.

I showed Allen and Bolton career v Rayner's first 3 seasons to show he might not be going as badly as you think.

——————————————————————————

Another point I will take up in this post is you rating Fritsch above Prestia based mainly on Fritsch gaining AA nomination.

It is not sound for the following reasons:

1. AA selection is not the best 22 players at any given time. Otherwise we would be accepting Darcy Byrne-Jones was in the best 22 in the AFL in 2020, and better than players like Fritsch and Prestia and many others, and he just isn’t.

2. Prestia is essentially competing for 4-5 inside mid positions(often 1-2 of them named interchange) in the AA team against about 50 marquee midfield players throughout the AFL. That would be about how many mids would be on roughly $700k+ in the AFL at any one time. Fritsch on the other hand is probably realistically competing for 5 spots(after a spillover mid gets shoehorned onto a flank) with roughly 25-30 marquee forwards. Maybe the equation is slightly less harsh than that but it is along those lines. So 2019 Prestia is B & F and best mid in a Premiership team, with this season, but doesn’t make the AA team(he did actually make the squad):


Dion Prestia
22 games in 2019.
604 disposals. 333 kicks, 78 marks, 271 handballs averaging 27.5 disposals, 15.1 kicks, 3.5 marks, 12.3 handballs. 106 Inside 50m, 50 Rebound 50m. 105 tackles.

Where in 2021, Fritsch makes the AA squad also, based on this season:

Bailey Fritsch
21 games in 2021

47 goals, 7 goal assists, Averaging 10 disposals and 2 tackles.


Ultimately they both play for successful clubs who make good decisions. So their wages give a decent guide, and I am guessing(educated) Prestia is and has been on $750k where Fritsch is likely on around $550k.

Does that seem fair?


I will come back to the task of re-rating the 2017 draft later. I don’t think you have done a bad job, obviously no two people will agree fully, and I have a few different ideas.

 

[La Dispute]

Ok good stuff rating all the players like that. I like a man that puts his reputation on the line.

You criteria for ranking the players are clearly a bit different to mine, but that is fine.

First, Fritsch. Ok, let’s leave out his first 2 seasons, let’s say those are prior to his peak he played some backline, perhaps didn’t have his role sorted out as well and also needed to get accustomed to the level. So from 2020 onwards, in 44 games(2020 results adjusted) he has established:

• an average around 2.6 goals + goal assists in all games
• an average of around 12 disposals in all games
• he can perform very well on the biggest stages.

We can see this, as you would expect, is an improvement on his first 2 years where he played roughly 28 games as a forward(it is a bit hard to tell precisely but I think that will be roughly right judging by his game by game stats.). In those roughly 28 matches Fritsch averaged roughly 1.9 goals + goal assists. In those games as a 21-22yo he roughly averaged 14-15 disposals, so probably had more time up the field.

So let’s go by his 2020 onwards figures and say that is indicative of where he sits in his current role at his peak. Let’s compare that with other forwards who are often isolated deep, and tend to attract a lot of opposition attention, and see how he compares:

Charlie Cameron all games @ Brisbane Goals + Goal Assists = 2.6 ave. Disposals 11.4

Joe Daniher @ Brisbane Goals + Goal Assists = 2.6, disposals = 14

Tom Papley whole career Goals + Goal Assists = 2.3, disposals = 14

Lance Franklin whole career 3.6 G+GA, 15 disposals

Max King last 13 games 3.5 G+GA, 11.3 disposals *as a 21yo

Aaron Naughton since turning 21 years, now 22yo, 2.3 G + GA, 11 disposals

Jack Darling whole career 2.5 and 12

Josh Kennedy whole career 3 and 11

(Oscar Allen whole career 1.6 and 10

Cam Rayner whole career, almost all 18,19,20yo 1.3 and 11

Shai Bolton whole career 1.7 and 15)

Luke Breust whole career 2.8 and 14

Jack Gunston whole career 2.6 and 15

Taylor Walker whole career 3 and 13

Harry McKay since 2021 3.2 and 10

Jake Stringer whole career 2.4 and 13

Jordan deGoey since 2018 2.4 and 18

Jack Riewoldt whole career 3.0 and 12

Tom Hawkins whole career 2.9 and 12.4

Tom Lynch whole career 2.6 and 13

Jeremy Cameron whole career 3.0 and 12

Matt Taberner since 2020 2.7 and 12 *adjusted for 2020

Michael Walters whole career 2.3 and 17

Robbie Gray whole career 2.2 and 20

Ben Brown whole career 2.6 and 10.5

Apart from where stated I haven’t adjust those for 2020 whereas I did for Fritsch. But what I think it shows is that there are at least 20 players across the matching Fritsch for scoreboard impact + disposals packaged, either across their whole careers or for a relevant and significant recent period. So if you say he is one of the top forwards in the AFL it is probably more correct to say he is, in his prime, one of about the top 20 or so.

The other thing I will say about Fritsch is he had 2 great games in the finals series, but both were against teams who didn’t have great matchups for him due to age/ability/injury interrupted seasons. I don’t think this detracts from Fritsch overall but to me it says those finals are not truly indicative of where he sits at this stage and his overall record the last 40 odd games is a better guide. I will change my mind if he produces anything like that again against good players on top of their game.

I showed Allen and Bolton career v Rayner's first 3 seasons to show he might not be going as badly as you think.

——————————————————————————

Another point I will take up in this post is you rating Fritsch above Prestia based mainly on Fritsch gaining AA nomination.

It is not sound for the following reasons:

1. AA selection is not the best 22 players at any given time. Otherwise we would be accepting Darcy Byrne-Jones was in the best 22 in the AFL in 2020, and better than players like Fritsch and Prestia and many others, and he just isn’t.

2. Prestia is essentially competing for 4-5 inside mid positions(often 1-2 of them named interchange) in the AA team against about 50 marquee midfield players throughout the AFL. That would be about how many mids would be on roughly $700k+ in the AFL at any one time. Fritsch on the other hand is probably realistically competing for 5 spots(after a spillover mid gets shoehorned onto a flank) with roughly 25-30 marquee forwards. Maybe the equation is slightly less harsh than that but it is along those lines. So 2019 Prestia is B & F and best mid in a Premiership team, with this season, but doesn’t make the AA team(he did actually make the squad):


Dion Prestia
22 games in 2019.
604 disposals. 333 kicks, 78 marks, 271 handballs averaging 27.5 disposals, 15.1 kicks, 3.5 marks, 12.3 handballs. 106 Inside 50m, 50 Rebound 50m. 105 tackles.

Where in 2021, Fritsch makes the AA squad also, based on this season:

Bailey Fritsch
21 games in 2021

47 goals, 7 goal assists, Averaging 10 disposals and 2 tackles.


Ultimately they both play for successful clubs who make good decisions. So their wages give a decent guide, and I am guessing(educated) Prestia is and has been on $750k where Fritsch is likely on around $550k.

Does that seem fair?


I will come back to the task of re-rating the 2017 draft later. I don’t think you have done a bad job, obviously no two people will agree fully, and I have a few different ideas.

Awesome analysis

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Very strange definition of "travelling nicely".

He averaged under 10 touches and a goal a game in 2020 leading into the offseason he was supposedly going to "break out". I couldn't see it personally and still can't.

He just doesn't win enough of the ball.

Petracca was averaging 20 disposals a game at half forward, arguably the hardest role on the ground. In a similar role he got twice the amount of ball and kicked more goals.

His best season to date is probably his rookie season and it was nothing to write home about.


View attachment 1370296

I think it is easy to make this mistake but you need to adjust the 2020 figures by multiplying everything by 1.25 to account for the shorter games. And you need to look at goals and goal assists otherwise you are saying the player on the end of a Joe the goose has a bigger hand in a goal than the player who gave it to him.

So the way to really read his 2020 season is Cam Rayner ave 1.9 goals + goals assists. 12+ disposals. 4 tackles. Those are not bad numbers at all. To give an easy and I think fair comparison, Richmond won the flag in 2020 with all their small forwards more advanced in their careers than Rayner. But the two consistently selected small forwards for Richmond averaged:

2020 Dan Rioli 1.1 goals + goal assists, 13.5 disposals, 4 tackles *adjusted

2020 The Chaos Boss Jason Castagna 14 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 3 tackles *adjusted

2021 Premier Melbourne had:

Charlie Spargo in his 5th season 11.5 disposals, 2.4 tackles, 1.3 goals + goal assists

Kysaiah Pickett 2nd season 12 disposals, 3.5 tackles, 2 goals + goal assists

Alex Neal-Bullen 16 disposals 4.4 tackles, 1.2 goals+goal assists

These are the players to fairly compare Rayner with. None of the play deepest forward for any significant time. They are all playing in good teams. You can clearly see from this that Rayner’s last full season, just his 3rd in the system, he is neck and neck with Pickett, and ahead of all these other Premiership small forwards, when you consider these parameters on balance.


Rayner for some unknown reason had a dip between his very decent year one(for a debut season) and his second season, but in the second season if you look game by game he might have been sub or subbed off 3-4 times because he had some really low games affecting his averages. If we llok at one more player here, Zac Bailey, his contemporaneous teammate.

2020 Zac Bailey 17 disposals 1.25 goals + goal assists 3.1 tackles *adjusted

So Bailey had significantly more disposals, but significantly less tackles and score impact.



Q. In his 3rd season in the AFL had Cam Rayner statistically distinguished himself from all these fair comparisons playing a similar type of role in strong teams the way you might expect to see from a number 1 draft pick compared to a basket of 3 x 10-15 range picks, 2 x second round picks and a rookie draft pick?

A. No

Q. In his 3rd full season in the AFL does he rate near the top of this group of Premiership small forwards in their Premiership years plus Bailey in his 3rd season?

A. Yes


In summary here I would say that successful teams have these players playing roles where they don’t necessarily chase possessions and goals. Rayner judging by his figures has done this role as well as any of these players, many of whom are very unfairly maligned by supporters who probably haven’t noticed the shift in the way the best teams use these roles.

My best projection is that Rayner will ultimately be at least a very respectable centre forward. He will use his size, strength and ability to win contests in centre bounces, then shift forward of the ball, sometimes as the deepest forward. Think Heeney, who has joined Martin, Petracca, de Goey, Stringer, Bolton, and no doubt a couple of others I have forgotten as players who have demonstrated they can play this role very well. Some highly rated big bodied mids like Dangerfield, Fyfe, Cripps and Bontempelli have not been as good at the forward line part of this role. Rayner to me should fall somewhere in between the two groups, but it is too early to say how he might shape up with a bigger role in the midfield.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

- The fact that Rayner was highly rated by Brisbane is irrelevant though. Paddy Dow was rated as the 3rd best kid in the draft. but now, it means nothing. The AFL community has written off Dow as a player and I don't think Rayner should be excused from this level of criticism either. not until he puts together a string of good games and consistency.

- Like other people have said. Guys like Rachele, Horne Francis etc. have shown more in the first 4 games of their careers than Rayner has shown in any of his first 4 seasons so I'm not sure why you're so comfortable to give him so much time to prove something? Good players just get things done regardless of whatever systems or team they play for. Rachele and Horne Francis are good examples of this.

- I hear what you're saying regarding the age of a recruit and their trade value. I do agree with this. I think he's got 7 years left. He's a skinny bloke, rangey type who tend to play for a long time. I think his trade value would be high, especially for a team in their premiership window. Imagine, if the dogs had Fritsch in the same forward line as Naughton.

- I do rate Prestia as a player but I think I rate him below Fritsch because midfielders grow on trees but forwards don't. Nothing on Prestia. I don't think Prestia has been in an AA squad before (?) and I also think that Fritsch's finals performance can't be glossed over. 6 in the grand final which hasn't been done in 24 years. I'll repeat that, 24 years. He also, kicked 4 in qualifying final.

- Regarding Ziebell, could? but hasn't. He's 31 and never has shown to have what Fritsch has. He's not as mobile, and not as dominant aerially, and not as good at ground level. Ziebell's a good overhead mark and a good kick but he doesn't have the zippiness of Fritsch. Fritsch isn't a midfielder so not sure why it matters that he can't play midfield. Either could most forwards.

- You mention Arimtage/Will Brodie/ Mitch Clark/ Tomlinson/Coffield/Logue/ Moore etc. but I'm not sure why? We're talking about one of the best forwards in the league, it's safe to say that these players never were or will never be one of the best in their position in the AFL.

- I don't think you can say Serong and Tarryn Thomas are tracking 'well ahead' of Fritsch. I think this comment means you're completely disrespecting how good of a player Fritsch is. At this stage, neither of these 2 players are near Fritch's level. Nor should they be, they're young. Tarryn Thomas has had a horrific start to the year and Serong has just been going average. If Fritsch had of been playing forward his whole career and not spent the first few years in the backline then I'm sure he would've had a couple of the 40 goal seasons next to his name before last years 59.

- To capture Fritsch's whole career, he would've been worth a top 5 pick. He's only in his 5th year because he was a mature aged recruit. He's been great from day 1, he's never missed a game basically, highly durable, and he's now our most dangerous forward. Interestingly, he was taken in the same draft as Rayner lol.

If the 2017 draft was done again:
In my opinion. And I think Rayner has no business being in the top 21 conversation. 22-30 he can be in that mix but the top 21 have all done much more and have all carved out extremely important roles and have shown to be good AFL players.

1. Naughton
2. Brayshaw
3. Tim Kelly
4. Fritsch
5. Zac Bailey
6. Oscar Allen
7. Cerra
8. Davies-Uniacke
9. Liam Ryan
10. Balta
11. Wil Powell
12. Starcevich
13. Sam Taylor
14. Dylan Moore
15. Liam Baker
16. Tom McCartin
17. Mihocek
18. Spargo
19. Worpel
20. Brent Daniels
21. Petty
-------------------------------------
22. Miers
23. Switkowski
24. Ben Paton
25. Xerrie
26. Ainsworth
27. Paton
28. Jack Higgins
29. Roarke Smith
30. Rayner
31. Nick Holman

I wouldn't mind seeing you rank the top 30.

Ok let’s have a go at re-rating the best of the 2017 draft. I will apply one simple criteria to my ratings, what draft pick/s would I be prepared to part with to trade these players in to my notional team at the end of season 2022 as things stand. I will assume each player fully fit and at his best, and not affected by past injuries. I will rate all of your guys plus the following:

Dow, O’Brien, Clark, Coffield, Bonar, D Fogarty, Brander, Ed Richards, L Fogarty, Coleman-Jones, De Koning, Petrucelle, McPherson, Ballard, Farrell, Z Langdon, H Jones, Amartey, Miller, L Murphy, who I think all can possibly make AFL regular players yet.

The figure to the left is where I rank them in this field, the figure to the right is the pick I would give up for them. If I wouldn’t trade a top 50 pick for them this is left blank.

1 Brayshaw - looks a fairly complete mid. Pick 2
2 Naughton - brilliant KPP, best of this group. Like to see improve set shots. Pick 2

3 Balta - adaptable KPP and second ruck, has huge weapons. Pick 3

4 Sam Taylor - class Key defender already. Pick 5
5 Cerra - always tracked a bit below Brayshaw but looks a strong mid Pick 5

After that there is a bit of a gap from what I have seen so far.

6 Bailey - Lions were right onto this bloke. Wing, mid, half back, small forward all look within his capabilities. Pick 8
7 Clark - in between getting hurt has shown good ability at half back and mid. Pick 8
8 Uniacke - shown just enough to suggest he can be a strong mid, good weapons. Pick 8

9. Rayner - his potential is strong enough that I couldn’t place him lower in this field. Pick 10

10. Allen - Really tidy undersized KPP. I feel he is over-rated a bit but I still rate him highly, loved his work in defence. Pick 12
11 McCartin - another very good KPP. Pick 12.

I have another gap here.

12. Ed Richards - will surprise some, but been watching him closely, he is getting stronger, is fast and good disposal. Not sure his best position yet. Pick 15
13 Paton - was killing them before his massive injury. Gets back to his best he is well worth this rating. Pick 15
14 de Koning - disappointed in him this year but still expect him to be a strong ruck/forward as he fills out. Pick 15

15. Ryan - I think he would do better in a different team where he is targetted more, or there are more loose balls so this could even be a bit low. Pick 18
16. Fritsch - Class hybrid forward, would be around pick 10 as would Ryan above but both are 2 years older than this group so marked down. Pick 18
17. Petty - Very impressed 2021 but want to see a bit more in different situations. At worst a really solid 2nd KPD Pick 18
18. Dylan Moore - Seems to be rapidly rising through the ranks now, looking a very accomplished player. Pick 18
19. Ballard - Maturing 2nd KPD or intercept marker. Has been attending a tough school, but he can stand up to it now. Pick 18

20. Switkowski - I like this bloke. Looks like a dog’s breakfast but he can really play. Pick 20
21. Powell - Possibly a bit low. Another very tidy footballer who will have a good career. Pick 20
22. Baker - Tiny, but too tough and skilled to be any lower. Marked down slightly as a year older than most of this group. Pick 20
23. Daniels - Gone off the radar slightly with injury but like how he is shaping. Pick 20

24. Ainsworth - also been in a difficult college but is a very decent player. Pick 22 EDIT: Wrong Ainsworth here. This guy was drafted by Eagles and delisted, Ben Ainsworth the very tidy Suns player was drafted a year prior to this draft.

I see another gap here.

25. Higgins - Might be under-rating him. Got plenty going for him. Tiny though and queries on his team first intent. Pick 25
26. Kelly - Class player but at 28 his trade value is diminished with most of his best years spent. Pick 25
27. Starcevich - good player, strong, good disposal. Not sure about his speed and running ability. Pick 25
28. Coleman-Jones - confidence probably a bit shot at the moment, but should play plenty of AFL footy and capable of filling a very useful role. Pick 25
29. Xerri - I rate this guy from what I have seen, unsure if he can become a really good player but will always be competitive. Pick 25
30. Spargo - solid small forward, always team first. Decent skills. Worth at least this pick, but not a world beater. Pick 25.

After this I think we are getting into speculative players or guys with known queries on them.

31. H Jones - Saw enough of him last year to suggest he can be a decent second tall forward. Pick 30. EDIT: This is actually the Hawthorn Harrison Jones not the Essendon one who was drafted later. This bloke didn’t make it. He played one game and was cut.


32. Coffield - Seemingly not adapted to AFL brilliantly, but has shown enough to suggest a decent career. Pick 30

33. Mihocek - can obviously play but 29yo limits his trade value. As a 23yo I would have him around the pick 20 mark. Pick 35
34. Roarke Smith - going better from half way through last year, but dropped again now. Marked down a bit due to 2 years older than this group. Pick 35
35. Bonar - good size, struggled with injuries a bit, I still believe he can be a decent AFL player. Pick 35
36. Farrell - great kick and has speed, unsure about the rest of his game. Pick 35

37. Worpel - Played plenty of midfield. Not great disposal and not many weapons. Hard to rate but I don’t rate him highly. Pick 38

38. Holman - Great intent, Sub-par skills. Tough not to like him but has a definite ceiling. Originally drafted 2015. Pick 42

Others I would give a pick below 50 for:

Miller - Impressing Tiger supporters in his few games need to see if he is competitive in a wider variety of situations. Pace, height and a really good kick.
Dow - If he doesn’t fix his kicking forget about it. On the hope that he could I would trade a 3rd rounder for him.
Petrucelle - has shown glimpses but stocks are waning.
Z Langdon - not the worst small forward.
McPherson - good competitor unsure if he has the tools.
Amartey - Looks brilliant at times VFL level and shown glimpses in the AFL. Worth a speculative pick.
Murphy - Smart player. Happy to have on list, not a world beater.

Avoiding:

D Fogarty - too short for his mobility too slow for his height. His big weapon, his kicking for goal, also seems to have deserted him, hopefully temporarily.
G Miers - Runs really well. Hate the stupid kicking style. Would need to harden up before I would consider him. Not impossible he will I guess.
L Fogarty - reasonable runner and tackler but poor kick and not sure about his decision making and positioning at times. Not for me.
Brander - Not writing this guy off but big questions on his appetite for the contest for now.

 

[schmuttt]

Not even going to enter the Fritsch discussion as I don’t want to be accused of bias but Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

is a country mile ahead here and all 18 clubs if given the choice would take him over Rayner.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not even going to enter the Fritsch discussion as I don’t want to be accused of bias but Oscar Allen is a country mile ahead here and all 18 clubs if given the choice would take him over Rayner.

Ok, make the case for why you think this is true then.

 

[schmuttt]

Ok, make the case for why you think this is true then.



View attachment 1371315

I'm not sure posting this is the flex you think it is. Allen is a swingman who is still averaging over a goal a game throughout his career and is improving season upon season. Rayner has plateaued since year one in terms of performance. I'd take Noah Balta over Rayner too as I think both Balta and Allen could be B-B+ players at either end whereas I can't see Rayner ever approaching a B grade level of performance anywhere on the ground.

 

[Toump Ass]

Still laughing at anyone thinking Raynor would be worth Fritsch in a trade.

I can't think of a single Melbourne Demon best 22 I'd let go for Cam Raynor. Jaidyn Hunt is better than that FRAUD.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm not sure posting this is the flex you think it is. Allen is a swingman who is still averaging over a goal a game throughout his career and is improving season upon season. Rayner has plateaued since year one in terms of performance. I'd take Noah Balta over Rayner too as I think both Balta and Allen could be B-B+ players at either end whereas I can't see Rayner ever approaching a B grade level of performance anywhere on the ground.

How many games do you estimate swingman Allen has played in defence of his 59 games?

 

[royboys4eva]

Still laughing at anyone thinking Raynor would be worth Fritsch in a trade.

I can't think of a single Melbourne Demon best 22 I'd let go for Cam Raynor. Jaidyn Hunt is better than that FRAUD.

It's JAYDEN Hunt. Every club would take Rayner before Hunt. Thanks for the laugh though.

 

[danster168]

Ok let’s have a go at re-rating the best of the 2017 draft. I will apply one simple criteria to my ratings, what draft pick/s would I be prepared to part with to trade these players in to my notional team at the end of season 2022 as things stand. I will assume each player fully fit and at his best, and not affected by past injuries. I will rate all of your guys plus the following:

Dow, O’Brien, Clark, Coffield, Bonar, D Fogarty, Brander, Ed Richards, L Fogarty, Coleman-Jones, De Koning, Petrucelle, McPherson, Ballard, Farrell, Z Langdon, H Jones, Amartey, Miller, L Murphy, who I think all can possibly make AFL regular players yet.

The figure to the left is where I rank them in this field, the figure to the right is the pick I would give up for them. If I wouldn’t trade a top 50 pick for them this is left blank.

1 Brayshaw - looks a fairly complete mid. Pick 2
2 Naughton - brilliant KPP, best of this group. Like to see improve set shots. Pick 2

3 Balta - adaptable KPP and second ruck, has huge weapons. Pick 3

4 Sam Taylor - class Key defender already. Pick 5
5 Cerra - always tracked a bit below Brayshaw but looks a strong mid Pick 5

After that there is a bit of a gap from what I have seen so far.

6 Bailey - Lions were right onto this bloke. Wing, mid, half back, small forward all look within his capabilities. Pick 8
7 Clark - in between getting hurt has shown good ability at half back and mid. Pick 8
8 Uniacke - shown just enough to suggest he can be a strong mid, good weapons. Pick 8

9. Rayner - his potential is strong enough that I couldn’t place him lower in this field. Pick 10

10. Allen - Really tidy undersized KPP. I feel he is over-rated a bit but I still rate him highly, loved his work in defence. Pick 12
11 McCartin - another very good KPP. Pick 12.

I have another gap here.

12. Ed Richards - will surprise some, but been watching him closely, he is getting stronger, is fast and good disposal. Not sure his best position yet. Pick 15
13 Paton - was killing them before his massive injury. Gets back to his best he is well worth this rating. Pick 15
14 de Koning - disappointed in him this year but still expect him to be a strong ruck/forward as he fills out. Pick 15

15. Ryan - I think he would do better in a different team where he is targetted more, or there are more loose balls so this could even be a bit low. Pick 18
16. Fritsch - Class hybrid forward, would be around pick 10 as would Ryan above but both are 2 years older than this group so marked down. Pick 18
17. Petty - Very impressed 2021 but want to see a bit more in different situations. At worst a really solid 2nd KPD Pick 18
18. Dylan Moore - Seems to be rapidly rising through the ranks now, looking a very accomplished player. Pick 18
19. Ballard - Maturing 2nd KPD or intercept marker. Has been attending a tough school, but he can stand up to it now. Pick 18

20. Switkowski - I like this bloke. Looks like a dog’s breakfast but he can really play. Pick 20
21. Powell - Possibly a bit low. Another very tidy footballer who will have a good career. Pick 20
22. Baker - Tiny, but too tough and skilled to be any lower. Marked down slightly as a year older than most of this group. Pick 20
23. Daniels - Gone off the radar slightly with injury but like how he is shaping. Pick 20

24. Ainsworth - also been in a difficult college but is a very decent player. Pick 22

I see another gap here.

25. Higgins - Might be under-rating him. Got plenty going for him. Tiny though and queries on his team first intent. Pick 25
26. Kelly - Class player but at 28 his trade value is diminished with most of his best years spent. Pick 25
27. Starcevich - good player, strong, good disposal. Not sure about his speed and running ability. Pick 25
28. Coleman-Jones - confidence probably a bit shot at the moment, but should play plenty of AFL footy and capable of filling a very useful role. Pick 25
29. Xerri - I rate this guy from what I have seen, unsure if he can become a really good player but will always be competitive. Pick 25
30. Spargo - solid small forward, always team first. Decent skills. Worth at least this pick, but not a world beater. Pick 25.

After this I think we are getting into speculative players or guys with known queries on them.

31. H Jones - Saw enough of him last year to suggest he can be a decent second tall forward. Pick 30
32. Coffield - Seemingly not adapted to AFL brilliantly, but has shown enough to suggest a decent career. Pick 30

33. Mihocek - can obviously play but 29yo limits his trade value. As a 23yo I would have him around the pick 20 mark. Pick 35
34. Roarke Smith - going better from half way through last year, but dropped again now. Marked down a bit due to 2 years older than this group. Pick 35
35. Bonar - good size, struggled with injuries a bit, I still believe he can be a decent AFL player. Pick 35
36. Farrell - great kick and has speed, unsure about the rest of his game. Pick 35

37. Worpel - Played plenty of midfield. Not great disposal and not many weapons. Hard to rate but I don’t rate him highly. Pick 38

38. Holman - Great intent, Sub-par skills. Tough not to like him but has a definite ceiling. Originally drafted 2015. Pick 42

Others I would give a pick below 50 for:

Miller - Impressing Tiger supporters in his few games need to see if he is competitive in a wider variety of situations. Pace, height and a really good kick.
Dow - If he doesn’t fix his kicking forget about it. On the hope that he could I would trade a 3rd rounder for him.
Petrucelle - has shown glimpses but stocks are waning.
Z Langdon - not the worst small forward.
McPherson - good competitor unsure if he has the tools.
Amartey - Looks brilliant at times VFL level and shown glimpses in the AFL. Worth a speculative pick.
Murphy - Smart player. Happy to have on list, not a world beater.

Avoiding:

D Fogarty - too short for his mobility too slow for his height. His big weapon, his kicking for goal, also seems to have deserted him, hopefully temporarily.
G Miers - Runs really well. Hate the stupid kicking style. Would need to harden up before I would consider him. Not impossible he will I guess.
L Fogarty - reasonable runner and tackler but poor kick and not sure about his decision making and positioning at times. Not for me.
Brander - Not writing this guy off but big questions on his appetite for the contest for now.

First to address your earlier post. It's really easy to cherry pick stats. But these are the ones that tell a full story.

2021 Pickett:
Forward 50 Ground Ball Gets - 3rd in League.
Tackles inside 50m: 2nd in League
Pressure Acts: 21st in League

2020 Rayner:
Forward 50 Ground Ball Gets - 207th in League.
Tackles inside 50m: 62nd in League
Pressure Acts: 104th in League


With regards to your order, I think it's obvious now that you're trolling. No-one in their right mind is going to have Raynor before Fritsch. lol wtf. lol.

Then the audacity to put Ed Richards before Fritsch. At this stage, we can't be taking this seriously.

You're picking the guys like Uniacke, Paton, Clarke, DeKoning, Rayner over Fritsch is absolute blasphemy. Fritsch gets marked down because he's 2 years older. Petracca aside, the guy is a norm smith medallist, 59 goals a year goal kicker and your putting scrubs that could very well be delisted in the next 3 seasons.

Totally disrespectful and am not sure whether you're being serious or not. Would you put Zac Bailey before Bontempelli because Bont is 2 years older too? Dude. I don't like shooting down opinions but a lot of the guys you rate, you like because they're young and you don't place any value on the fact that they've been scrubs for the first few years and then when you've got one of the best players in the league you disregard them because he is 2 years older. That's a really flawed way of assessing players.

Most of the guys on your list above Fritsch have shown maybe 5% of what Fritsch has ALREADY done.

There is no logical reason that Rayner belongs in the top 20. Like how on earth is Rayner above Spargo? In what world has Rayner shown more than Spargo.

 

[danster168]

It's JAYDEN Hunt. Every club would take Rayner before Hunt. Thanks for the laugh though.

Yeah I'd take Rayner before Hunt. But Rayner isn't even in our best 22 and this joker is taking him before Fritsch. like what sort of deluded footy fan is this...

It's almost like he's been brainwashed by Rayner preseason hype videos his whole life. If he was a Melbourne supporter, he'd probably be comparing Fritsch the Buddy. And I'm not joking. Fritsch is closer to buddy than Rayner is to Fritsch.

 

[danster168]

Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

24

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

MG

201.4

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

MG

198.3

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

232.4

4star

before Fritsch.LOOOOOOL

 

[Toump Ass]

It's JAYDEN Hunt. Every club would take Rayner before Hunt. Thanks for the laugh though.

Well unless I'm mistaken no club that doesn't have JAIDYN HUNT on their list hasn't won a premiership in the last 6 months? And IMO if those clubs keep taking players like CAM RAYNOR over players like JAIDYN HUNT that will never change.

Cam's no good mate, I'm sorry.