Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

[beema limapep]

Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

ALP - 77
LIBS/NATS - 63
INDI - 11

Higgins to go ALP

Goldie, Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth to all go indi

 

[beema limapep]

ALP - 86
LIBS/NATS - 54
Other - 11

Approximate 5.7% swing to ALP. Liberal party to be almost wiped out of Metro Melbourne bar 3 seats.

 

[Maggie5]

Current make up:

By State

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Subject to change over the week

Headline figure:
ALP: 77
L/NP: 64
OTH: 10 (2 Greens, Katter, Sharkie, 6 indys)


Bonus:
ALP win with 51.5%

ALP Gain: Reid (NSW), Banks (NSW), Bennelong (NSW), Chisholm (Vic), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Boothby (SA), Bass (Tas)
L/NP Gain: Hughes (NSW)
GRN Gain: Brisbane (QLD)
IND Gain: Wentworth (NSW), Kooyong (VIC), Goldstein (VIC)

Petrie loses its bellwether crown. Bass to continue its run as an ejector seat. Longer shots if it's a good ALP night: Page, La Trobe.

Spoiler: Senate

Senate
NSW: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
VIC: 2 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP
QLD: 2 L/NP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP, 1 PHON
WA: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
SA: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
TAS: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
ACT: 1 L/NP, 1 ALP
NT: 1 L/NP, 1 ALP

L/NP: 35
ALP: 24
GRN: 12
UAP: 2
PHON: 2
Lambie: 1
(Would be typical to finally win the House, but have the senate unworkable)

 

[Shane Sheridan]

ALP - 84
L/N - 56
Other - 11

 

[Juddism]

Got a feeling it’ll be an LNP bloodbath…

ALP 89

LNP 56

Other 6

 

[beema limapep]

First one is massively pessimistic. After last election and knowing what everyday Australians are like i still think its a coalition win

COAL - 75
LABOR - 68
IND/OTHER - 8

In a better world, where people actually have a brain

COAL - 63
LABOR - 78
IND/OTHER - 10

Dream scenario

COAL - 55
LABOR - 83
IND/OTHER - 10

In this dream scenario the moderate liberals are booted and Dutton becomes leader. The party continues to go far right and self destructs. Becomes an unelectable party and Labor grows a backbone and tries to implement some of the changes the Australian people need.

Pick 1 scenario for the comp.

 

[beema limapep]

Got a feeling it’ll be an LNP bloodbath…

ALP 89

LNP 56

Other 6

Same.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Real pick:

ALP 74
LNP 66
Other 11

Doomsday:

Other 151 (all UAP and PHON)

 

[Proper Gander]

Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.

Do we get money or something?

 

[Proper Gander]

ALP - 77
LIBS/NATS - 63
INDI - 11

Higgins to go ALP

Goldie, Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth to all go indi

I would like this please only with ALP for 76 and Higgins to Greens

 

[hewetta]

ALP: 79
L/NP: 62
OTH: 10

 

[Jascave]

I'd go like this-

ALP-78
LIB/NAT-62
Other-11

 

[beema limapep]

I'd go like this-

ALP-77
LIB/NAT-62
Other-11

You are missing a seat. Add 1.

 

[Rotayjay]

Labor - 79
Coalition - 66
Others - 6

Ryan defeats Frydenberg but several teal campaigns fail, and Antony Green calls the election around 9 PM AEST. Edit: one seat away from Others and towards the Coalition.

 

[BigVic]

From SuperVoter

ALP 65
LNP 80
Independents 3
Greens 1
Katter 1

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Alp 87
Libs 60
Others 4

Kroger closes briefcase at 7.14 declares "it's over".

 

[Mitchell Madness]

15 independent
70 LNP
66 ALP

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Ya gotta love the walk bait some of the ALP rusts are putting up here. But then again...they haven't learned from the last election. Reality is it will probably be very close.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

ALP 77
LNP 65
Indies/Green 9

 

[beema limapep]

Ya gotta love the walk bait some of the ALP rusts are putting up here. But then again...they haven't learned from the last election. Reality is it will probably be very close.

Put your prediction in and we'll see who has 'learned'.

Who knows, it might even be you who knows more about the outcome?

 

[dusty1234!]

Swan, Pearce, Chisholm, Higgins, Boothby, Bass, Braddon, Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Brisbane and Longman Labor gains
Deakin, La Trobe, Casey, Leichardt, Lindsay, North Sydney, Ryan and Sturt to come close to flipping

Goldstein, Kooyong, Wentworth to go indi

So in total 8 indis and 1 Green
81 Labor
61 Coalition

 

[Hornberger]

Goldstein, Kooyong, Wentworth to go indi

So in total 9 indis and 1 Green

There was 6 cross benchers elected at the last election. If you are predicting 3 Indi gains, how do you get to 10 on the cross bench?

 

[Pie eyed]

Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.

ALP:- 84
LNP:- 60
Other:- 7