2022 All Aus Predictions and Rolling teams

[Falcon3518]

I think it’s pretty obvious that they’re not.

All that is obvious is that one kicks more goals than the other.

The first player may pick up half his touches intercepting attacking plays from the other team, winning clearances off a half back line, winning the ball out of the centre, extracting contested ball.

Using your logic Tom Hawkins and Josh Kennedy have been the two most damaging players in the entire competition for a decade considering they have kicked more goals than anyone and have done it from less touches.

Also you may not agree with some of my points but at least you know how I get to them. I still have no idea how you decide which players are better, is it just an eye of the beholder thing?

 

[PhatBoy]

Well then no point comparing players. Let’s remove the word damaging from our vocabulary and get rid of every award because we have no idea how damaging a player is compared to another.

They don’t pick a player or players on the ‘damaging’ line in an AA team.

You keep coming up with these ‘I made this up so I could talk up Dustin Martin’ metrics that ignore 80
Per cent of the game and just focus on whatever you think makes the Richmond player look good.

That’s not how AA teams are picked. They look at every area in which the player does and doesn’t contribute. How many pressure acts does Martin contribute? Tackles? One per centres? Contested ball? Clearances?

They don’t just go ‘he kicks more goals.’

 

[PhatBoy]

Also you may not agree with some of my points but at least you know how I get to them. I still have no idea how you decide which players are better, is it just an eye of the beholder thing?

It’s by using all relevant and available metrics rather than just the ones that make the person I like look better

 

[Falcon3518]

It’s by using all relevant and available metrics rather than just the ones that make the person I like look better

Please provide the metrics you are using then your conclusion please so we can clear this up.

 

[Falcon3518]

They don’t pick a player or players on the ‘damaging’ line in an AA team.

You keep coming up with these ‘I made this up so I could talk up Dustin Martin’ metrics that ignore 80
Per cent of the game and just focus on whatever you think makes the Richmond player look good.

That’s not how AA teams are picked. They look at every area in which the player does and doesn’t contribute. How many pressure acts does Martin contribute? Tackles? One per centres? Contested ball? Clearances?

They don’t just go ‘he kicks more goals.’

They do for the HF line and fwd pockets which are the only places imo Dusty can get, besides the bench. The Coleman medalist always gets the full fwd position otherwise Hawkins would be a 10x AA by now.

 

[PhatBoy]

Please provide the metrics you are using then your conclusion please so we can clear this up.

I’m not making a conclusion ffs, I’m pointing out the flaw in your Dustin Martin obsession that sees you ignore every other possible measure of a player’s value and simply go ‘he kicks more goals ergo he is better.’

 

[PhatBoy]

They do for the HF line and fwd pockets which are the only places imo Dusty can get, besides the bench. The Coleman medalist always gets the full fwd position otherwise Hawkins would be a 10x AA by now.

But he wouldn’t. For a lot of those seasons yeah he was the most versatile key forward and arguably the most skilful at bringing others into the game but his tackle pressure was low, he didn’t ruck the way he does now, he didn’t kick as consistently as he does. I can think of one season - 2018 from memory - where he genuinely SHOULD have been there but wasn’t, the rest I don’t really think there was any issue with.

 

[Falcon3518]

I’m not making a conclusion ffs, I’m pointing out the flaw in your Dustin Martin obsession that sees you ignore every other possible measure of a player’s value and simply go ‘he kicks more goals ergo he is better.’

Dusty and Trac both play mid-fwd. mid fwds are most likely to be put in the HF line. To be an elite HF you need to be able to score goals as well as be elite in the midfield. If you have a lot of disposals but not many goals you are considered an on baller and are likely to be in the Center not the HF line. Goals and Score assists are the most important metrics for a half fwd which Dusty is both elite in, better than Trac but he’s not in the discussion yet because he hasn’t played many games so far. Does this make sense to you now? What’s the issue?

 

[Falcon3518]

But he wouldn’t. For a lot of those seasons yeah he was the most versatile key forward and arguably the most skilful at bringing others into the game but his tackle pressure was low, he didn’t ruck the way he does now, he didn’t kick as consistently as he does. I can think of one season - 2018 from memory - where he genuinely SHOULD have been there but wasn’t, the rest I don’t really think there was any issue with.

Most important metrics for key fwds is goals then score assists. Secondary stats like tackles and rucking is not really analysed as much. That’s not generally the role of a key fwd. Hawkins doing that stuff is just a bonus for you guys.

 

[conrad_437]

Christ. There really are a few on this site that ruin it for the rest of us.

 

[PhatBoy]

Dusty and Trac both play mid-fwd. mid fwds are most likely to be put in the HF line. To be an elite HF you need to be able to score goals as well as be elite in the midfield. If you have a lot of disposals but not many goals you are considered an on baller are are likely to be in the Center not the HF line. Goals and Score assists are the most important metrics for a half fwd which Dusty is both elite in, better than Trac but he’s not in the discussion yet because he hasn’t played many games so far. Does this make sense to you now? What’s the issue?

No you don’t.

Cyril Rioli didn’t kick nearly as many goals as Eddie Betts. Does that make him an inferior small forward? No, because that’s not his only role.

Congrats to Martin for kicking goals.

If that’s all that mattered every side would just be stacked with 9 talls and 9 crumbers. But they aren’t. They are stacked with 18 players who all have a different role to varying degrees so simply saying ‘this guy kicks more goals’ means nothing.

Martin has played 3 games. It’s a s**t sample size to begin with.

Martin contributes 2.3 goals a game - assists and goals combined.
Petracca contributes 2.1.
Petracca makes 3.5 tackles a game. Martin doesn’t even average 1.
Petracca makes tackles inside forward 50 more.
He delivers inside 50s more. He wins a heap more contested ball. He gives away less free kicks. He makes more metres.


Why on earth would any selection panel just blindly go ‘Martin kicks more goals’ and leave it at that?

 

[Falcon3518]

No you don’t.

Cyril Rioli didn’t kick nearly as many goals as Eddie Betts. Does that make him an inferior small forward? No, because that’s not his only role.

Congrats to Martin for kicking goals.

If that’s all that mattered every side would just be stacked with 9 talls and 9 crumbers. But they aren’t. They are stacked with 18 players who all have a different role to varying degrees so simply saying ‘this guy kicks more goals’ means nothing.

Martin has played 3 games. It’s a s**t sample size to begin with.

Martin contributes 2.3 goals a game - assists and goals combined.
Petracca contributes 2.1.
Petracca makes 3.5 tackles a game. Martin doesn’t even average 1.
Petracca makes tackles inside forward 50 more.
He delivers inside 50s more. He wins a heap more contested ball. He gives away less free kicks. He makes more metres.


Why on earth would any selection panel just blindly go ‘Martin kicks more goals’ and leave it at that?

Are you ok? I said goals aren’t everything. But they are very important to the position they are going for in the AA selection being HF. AA on ballers will have the most disposals and clearances. Key fwd will have goals, backs will have intercept marks etc.

Also it’s pretty widely accepted Betts was a better small fwd than Rioli mainly for his record and freak goals.

Anyway let’s just agree to disagree people are getting annoyed with our discussions.

 

[Hoops]

I don't tend to put my view forward on who is deserving or not as i don't watch enough games. But the methodology of using season averages over season totals is flawed,

 

[Juddernaut08]

Shame he won’t get any finals awards though, what a dud.

we were talking mills. read before u spout off

 

[Falcon3518]

we were talking mills. read before u spout off

He’s a dud too

 

[BringFevBack2021]

He’s a dud too

We're talking about Mills, not Cotchin man

 

[Falcon3518]

I don't tend to put my view forward on who is deserving or not as i don't watch enough games. But the methodology of using season averages over season totals is flawed,

It’s because AA is a hypothetical team. If they played in a match you’d want the guy that averages the most but obviously you take into how many games they have played as well to filter out any one hit wonders.

 

[tiger_tough]

Short was a lock 3 weeks ago but I dont think he makes it now that he's moved away from half back. Has been great since moving into the middle but can't see him locking down a spot in there.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

made AA last year, and is even better so far. Only issue for him is the fact the team isn't winning which generally hurts your selection chances, otherwise he'd be one of the first picked so far

 

[kreglze]

Miller, Witts and Collins probably the 3 out of the Suns that would be considerations.

Witts probably the 2nd best ruckman in the league at the moment. Miller picking up from last season and Collins in the handful of top key defenders this year.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Bailey Dale made AA last year, and is even better so far. Only issue for him is the fact the team isn't winning which generally hurts your selection chances, otherwise he'd be one of the first picked so far

Quite a few defenders probably Docherty ahead at least but I agree on Dale he’s having a great year in a poor side

 

[Juddernaut08]

Bailey Dale made AA last year, and is even better so far. Only issue for him is the fact the team isn't winning which generally hurts your selection chances, otherwise he'd be one of the first picked so far

would you have him in front of Short?

 

[Falcon3518]

would you have him in front of Short?

He probably would be because AA selectors don’t rate Richmond players. We only got Dusty in 2020 when we won the premiership and people like you were saying he shouldn’t have even been in. Crazy

 

[BringFevBack2021]

would you have him in front of Short?

Yeah, only as Short is playing more midfield minutes now. Otherwise, I think Dale is behind Short and Doc - just.

 

[Juddernaut08]

He probably would be because AA selectors don’t rate Richmond players. We only got Dusty in 2020 when we won the premiership and people like you were saying he shouldn’t have even been in. Crazy

you love your conspiracy theories!