The coalition will never win the federal government again.

[Gethelred]

Climate200 only provided 33% of the funding $1.5m Ryan received, and I understand it's similar for Daniel's.

Fwiw Frydo apparently spent $3m (not confirmed)

I get that, I'm not conspiracy theorizing.

More, they're not a sustainable force beyond one-two elections unless their revenue streams are capable of sustaining attacks from the major parties. Good representation only gets you so far when your opponents can hit you in the media and in public, especially when you now are not an unknown but have a record behind you.

 

[Bombermania]

The liberal and national coalition will need to split up in order for the right side of politics to win power again.

As we move towards a greener future, any policies trying to hold back the shift will ensure they stay in Opposition.

No amount of Murdoch bullshit will work.

The LNP is dead …. The teals are here to stay ..and the Liberals will need to move left and contest safe national seats if they want to form government again.
…. And that won’t happen for atleast the next 2 elections.

Albo how long? Shitloads….

The Liberals or whoever the major opposition is will win government at some time. How long will depend on which way the Liberals go and how the Albo government performs, and at a minimum the new government can expect two terms.

 

[Romeoh1]

The media shouldn’t support anyone. That’s why people that have an interest in politics are turning away from msm political media sources. Most are over the media cheerleading.

Rightio- Rupert missed the memo?

 

[Bombermania]

Can remember similar chatter when Rudd won in 07 - then we ended up with Tony Abbott.

It's really hard to know how people will respond to independents in future elections, which may make it harder for seats to return to a major party as opposed to just tossing out an unpopular government for the alternative. A strong personal impression may be influential, as we saw a few of the incumbents increased their margins, and there's examples like the North Queensland seat held by the Katter family since the 60s.

When Jeff was elected there were people predicting it would be 25 years before the ALP would win again in Victoria.

 

[HPKS]

Rightio- Rupert missed the memo?

And how did that turn out for newscorpes? People are over the cheerleading.

 

[HairyO]

On the thread topic...

This is exceedingly dumb. The Libs control 80% of the media in this country, and spend roughly 85% of the funding the entire Australian media landscape consumes. The Libs have lost an election after 9 years of power, and they only just ******* lost; if the Teal seats went to Labor, you could make the case that the ALP has a mandate for their positions, but not only did this not happen but they might not see majority government in the house. This is hardly the sterling endorsement of the ALP in the electorate that would truly spell the end of the Coalition's electoral chances.

Dutton's - if he becomes leader - issue is convincing the southern states he's not a fascist waiting to happen and WA that they purged the elements within who planned the co-ordinated attack on WA during Covid. He doesn't really need to do very much there; the media will do the job for him. He won't lose seats for them in QLD.

FFS, roughly 40% of the vote in this country is liberal in every election. Do you really think that's going to disappear? We're a conservative bunch here, whether I like it or not.

Then, you've got the traps set in government by the Libs. The fuel excise expiry in October will hit the government hard, because it's hard to shift the blame for your petrol prices going from $2 to $2.50 a litre; do they prolong it and dig us further into debt, or do they take the hit? That's just a single example.

The Libs have stacked every part of the bureaucracy, every board, committee, position of authority with their own people. They've had the time to be thorough. It will take at least two terms to run a broom through things, and they'll be lucky to get that.

Exactly.

I said in another thread 32% voted for Deves despite her being a complete nutjob. If 1 or 2 in 10 more people voted for her she may well have won - if the Teal vote was 3rd behind Labor on Primary votes.

Have this happen in 10 or 12 electorates and the Libs are either in power or a very strong Opposition.

So winning over a small number of people in a small number of electorates is all it needs.

Of course that happening requires Dutton and Perrotet wanting to win more than wanting to surround themselves with Conservative arsehats. Time will tell there.

 

[HairyO]

When Jeff was elected there were people predicting it would be 25 years before the ALP would win again in Victoria.

And they say it about McGowan and Dan.

No different to every half decent kid being described as a 250 game player. 1 % of players make it to 250 games.

 

[HPKS]

And they say it about McGowan and Dan.

No different to every half decent kid being described as a 250 game player. 1 % of players make it to 250 games.

Agree except WA. The LNP will have to rid itself first of anyone associated with Scumo. If not how easy is a campaign there “this is the party that called you cavedwellers” just one photo of say Dutton the leader with Scumo will be enough.

Imo I don’t think we’re ever going back to the two party system though. It’s dead and buried

 

[nut]

The media shouldn’t support anyone. That’s why people that have an interest in politics are turning away from msm political media sources. Most are over the media cheerleading.

100% agree

 

[HairyO]

Agree except WA. The LNP will have to rid itself first of anyone associated with Scumo. If not how easy is a campaign there “this is the party that called you cavedwellers” just one photo of say Dutton the leader with Scumo will be enough.

Imo I don’t think we’re ever going back to the two party system though. It’s dead and buried

If Labor win an outright majority they dont have to worry about independents and can neutralise them. Have them sit on the cross-benches getting 1 question a week on Question Time.

They want Fowler back as well. Its not just Liberal seats which got lost. And they are at risk in a number of inner city seats and need to ensure they keep them.

 

[Joffaboy]

When Jeff was elected there were people predicting it would be 25 years before the ALP would win again in Victoria.

And the Libs have been in power for four years since 1999. It seems unlikely they will win in November so it will be four years in 27 by the time 2026 rolls around.

 

[HPKS]

If Labor win an outright majority they dont have to worry about independents and can neutralise them. Have them sit on the cross-benches getting 1 question a week on Question Time.

They want Fowler back as well. Its not just Liberal seats which got lost. And they are at risk in a number of inner city seats and need to ensure they keep them.

You can’t neutralise them. You need to show the public you value every electorate. That’s the only way you win electorates. If you don’t you end up with Scumo 2.0

 

[Bombermania]

And the Libs have been in power for four years since 1999. It seems unlikely they will win in November so it will be four years in 27 by the time 2026 rolls around.

Which is why no one can say the coalition will never win again.

 

[Joffaboy]

And they say it about McGowan and Dan.

No different to every half decent kid being described as a 250 game player. 1 % of players make it to 250 games.

McGowan has an opposition of two, and Dan has a pretty hefty majority. Can't recall anyone saying he would be in for 25 year, but after 2018 most thought 2026 was a possibility. Still seems like it.

Very rare to have a one term government in Australia. The useless Vic Libs managed to as did Marshall in SA.

 

[Bombermania]

If Labor win an outright majority they dont have to worry about independents and can neutralise them. Have them sit on the cross-benches getting 1 question a week on Question Time.

They want Fowler back as well. Its not just Liberal seats which got lost. And they are at risk in a number of inner city seats and need to ensure they keep them.

The ALP will play nice with the independents to spite the Liberals.

 

[Joffaboy]

Which is why no one can say the coalition will never win again.

Agreed never is a long time, however if you told an ALP supporters the state govt would be in power for 23 of the next 27 years, they would probably take that.

 

[Joffaboy]

You can’t neutralise them. You need to show the public you value every electorate. That’s the only way you win electorates. If you don’t you end up with Scumo 2.0

As we know Labor got approx one third of the primary vote, if they want a red and green influx of indies, I would listen to what the people voted for on Saturday, especially on climate change.

 

[Romeoh1]

And how did that turn out for newscorpes? People are over the cheerleading.

News Corp is as bad as it’s gets and yes, chances are the majority of people now have enough sense to rise above his rubbish. And that’s a very good thing.

 

[Vindicater]

This coalition maybe, but something will form again on the centre-right to fill the gap.

 

[nut]

If Labor win an outright majority they dont have to worry about independents and can neutralise them. Have them sit on the cross-benches getting 1 question a week on Question Time.

They want Fowler back as well. Its not just Liberal seats which got lost. And they are at risk in a number of inner city seats and need to ensure they keep them.

Albo has already said he’ll govern for all and try and include all members in the parliament.
Labor have to include the Independents or risk the LNP winning back those seats.
Example Helen Haines ICAC bill.

 

[Mofra]

Question becomes, can the Teals ensure revenue streams to equal the Greens as a fourth force in federal politics?

Simon Holmes a Court can't just keep giving them money. At some point, they're going to need their own funding.

They just did pick up plenty of electoral funding by their first preference votes

 

[Mofra]

Albo has already said he’ll govern for all and try and include all members in the parliament.
Labor have to include the Independents or risk the LNP winning back those seats.
Example Helen Haines ICAC bill.

Not to mention needing support in the Senate. The HoR doesn't operate in a vacuum

 

[DaRick]

It has, they will chase one nation and UAP vote

UAP voters are IMO too capricious, paranoid and/or disengaged to rely upon.

 

[masai tu]

Yeah cos we want 3 more years of Morrison cowering away when he is needed. He probably wouldn’t even stick up for Jenny if she was being assaulted.

Go back to licking Credlin’s a-hole.

The Libs are splintering.

As has been said elsewhere, similar problems beset the ALP in the 50’s. It took 20 years for them to become relevant again.

I’m not saying that it will be a 20 year drought for the Libs, but they have to face their demons, exorcise them, then move forward.

If you refuse to face your demons, exorcism can’t take place.

 

[BlueBayou]

What will paranoid lefities do to entertain themselves for the next three years? No Trump, no ScoMo...it will be fascinating.

hey! It's my favourite socialist, who thinks the government should subsidise his business losses.

What WILL you do, paranoid socialist?