The coalition will never win the federal government again.

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Mateyman said:
Patrick hasn't been voted out? And Phelps only had 6 months to establish herself after a by-election - not really comparable to a full 3 year term.
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Patrick is toast

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Pessimistic said:
Any energy or climate legislation will be a wedge for these jokers. Don’t even need to design it thus.

Any claims of wedge (after Albo saying he won’t seek to wedge) should be taken with a pinch of salt
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They won't need to wedge them, with the Greens and the Teals in the Parliament it won't matter what the Libs think and it might help if the press started realising this. Albo's more likely to have issues fending off calls for stronger action on the climate from them.
 

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People forget that the big selling point to the teal independents will probably be moot in a few year.

We either take action on climate change, or we are completely ****ed.

Remember, it was less than 10 years ago that Tony Abbott romped to victory on the promise of repealing Labor's climate policies. Most of the moderate electorates had positive swings towards the Liberals back then (and you could add in the Palmer votes, too). The 'moderates' in those electorates didn't seem to care much about climate change back then. They were happy to turf Labor, knowing full well that we would go backward on climate policy.

Fast forward to today... and NOW they are all up in arms and want to take action. Really? They FINALLY believe the science? Or perhaps they always knew it was true it's just now they are all shitting their pants because they realise that the climate doesn't care whether you are rich or poor.

The problem is that Labor and the Greens will need to do all the 'heavy lifting' in terms of climate policy. And once it is mostly accepted and integrated into everyday life... the teal electorates will forget about it and go back to voting for tax cuts, maintaining negative gearing on investment properties, and increased university fees, and reductions in social welfare and medicare, and more funding for elite private schools and all of the usual s**t that the Liberals typically pull. People have the memories of goldfish. Remember, plenty of young people were happy to ignore the government's abysmal climate record just for the chance to destroy their superannuation and get into the ponzi scheme known as our housing market. What sugar rush will the Liberals promise next election?

IMHO, Anthony Albanese is going to have a tough time wining the next election, let alone in 2028.
 
Tyberious Funk said:
People forget that the big selling point to the teal independents will probably be moot in a few year.

We either take action on climate change, or we are completely ducked.

Remember, it was less than 10 years ago that Tony Abbott romped to victory on the promise of repealing Labor's climate policies. Most of the moderate electorates had positive swings towards the Liberals back then (and you could add in the Palmer votes, too). The 'moderates' in those electorates didn't seem to care much about climate change back then. They were happy to turf Labor, knowing full well that we would go backward on climate policy.

Fast forward to today... and NOW they are all up in arms and want to take action. Really? They FINALLY believe the science? Or perhaps they always knew it was true it's just now they are all shitting their pants because they realise that the climate doesn't care whether you are rich or poor.

The problem is that Labor and the Greens will need to do all the 'heavy lifting' in terms of climate policy. And once it is mostly accepted and integrated into everyday life... the teal electorates will forget about it and go back to voting for tax cuts, maintaining negative gearing on investment properties, and increased university fees, and reductions in social welfare and medicare, and more funding for elite private schools and all of the usual s**t that the Liberals typically pull. People have the memories of goldfish. Remember, plenty of young people were happy to ignore the government's abysmal climate record just for the chance to destroy their superannuation and get into the ponzi scheme known as our housing market. What sugar rush will the Liberals promise next election?

IMHO, Anthony Albanese is going to have a tough time wining the next election, let alone in 2028.
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It's not as simple as that.

The same group of teals and Greens want action on other matters too.

Integrity in politics was a central plank to the policy agenda of both groups. They will be central to design and implementation of the ICAC.

To not take the Greens and teals as serious players is fraught with peril. The Coalition under estimated the move. And they face a torrid fight next time around. That's why i think Albo will be a 3 term PM. He understands the mood.
 
Tyberious Funk said:
People forget that the big selling point to the teal independents will probably be moot in a few year.

We either take action on climate change, or we are completely ducked.

Remember, it was less than 10 years ago that Tony Abbott romped to victory on the promise of repealing Labor's climate policies. Most of the moderate electorates had positive swings towards the Liberals back then (and you could add in the Palmer votes, too). The 'moderates' in those electorates didn't seem to care much about climate change back then. They were happy to turf Labor, knowing full well that we would go backward on climate policy.

Fast forward to today... and NOW they are all up in arms and want to take action. Really? They FINALLY believe the science? Or perhaps they always knew it was true it's just now they are all shitting their pants because they realise that the climate doesn't care whether you are rich or poor.

The problem is that Labor and the Greens will need to do all the 'heavy lifting' in terms of climate policy. And once it is mostly accepted and integrated into everyday life... the teal electorates will forget about it and go back to voting for tax cuts, maintaining negative gearing on investment properties, and increased university fees, and reductions in social welfare and medicare, and more funding for elite private schools and all of the usual s**t that the Liberals typically pull. People have the memories of goldfish. Remember, plenty of young people were happy to ignore the government's abysmal climate record just for the chance to destroy their superannuation and get into the ponzi scheme known as our housing market. What sugar rush will the Liberals promise next election?

IMHO, Anthony Albanese is going to have a tough time wining the next election, let alone in 2028.
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If they're good local members the teals should get reasonable mileage out of that? E.g. Andrew Wilkie?
 
Do the Libs not have a female candidate for Leadership in Opposition?

That's what the optics requires at present. A strong, economically conservative but moderately socially, woman.

If they don't a strong female candidate, then it kind of explains why female voters jumped off them in the first place, and largely vindicates those concerns.
 
ray1984 said:
They had been in power 3 terms.

They will regroup and win again after the ALP have been in power for a few terms.

It’s how it’s always worked
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True. In my Lifetime..... And I am born in 1987....

From 1983-1996, Labor had their best ever run. Bob Hawke was the leader from 1983-1991. Paul Keating had his run at the top from 1991-96.

John Howard lead the liberals and was PM from 1996-2007.

Labor had Kevin Rudd as their leader in that 2007 election and Labor won. Labor narrowly won on that 2010 election.

Then Liberals got in power In 2013, retained their spot in 2016, narrowly survived In 2019 then lost in 2022.

As I said, I can't see the coalition turn this mess around by 2025. The coalition can get back to the top in 2028. But everything has to go their way.

The current coalition party is similar to Labor's situation in 2004 when Mark Latham was the Labor leader.

If Dutton is the best candidate the coalition has got as a leader, it's hard to get behind him to elect him as prime Minister
 
Malifice said:
Do the Libs not have a female candidate for Leadership in Opposition?

That's what the optics requires at present. A strong, economically conservative but moderately socially, woman.

If they don't a strong female candidate, then it kind of explains why female voters jumped off them in the first place, and largely vindicates those concerns.
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Leys, Archer, Hume, and Andrews have all indicated they are interested in deputy
 
Malifice said:
Katter is a homophobic nationalist gun nut with some out there (and harmful) views, but he does give a s**t about his electorate (and seems to genuinely care about many Indigenous issues) and does a lot of good work to go with his frequent batshit crazy racist uncle rants.

Id never vote for him, but I see why his electorate does.
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Bob Katter will always get some followers.

Katters views are not...... Normal. LoL.

He is against Same sex marriage. He was more worried about crocodiles eating up local Queenslanders. On average there's one human death by crocodiles every 3 months.
 
Tyberious Funk said:
People forget that the big selling point to the teal independents will probably be moot in a few year.

We either take action on climate change, or we are completely ducked.

Remember, it was less than 10 years ago that Tony Abbott romped to victory on the promise of repealing Labor's climate policies. Most of the moderate electorates had positive swings towards the Liberals back then (and you could add in the Palmer votes, too). The 'moderates' in those electorates didn't seem to care much about climate change back then. They were happy to turf Labor, knowing full well that we would go backward on climate policy.

Fast forward to today... and NOW they are all up in arms and want to take action. Really? They FINALLY believe the science? Or perhaps they always knew it was true it's just now they are all shitting their pants because they realise that the climate doesn't care whether you are rich or poor.

The problem is that Labor and the Greens will need to do all the 'heavy lifting' in terms of climate policy. And once it is mostly accepted and integrated into everyday life... the teal electorates will forget about it and go back to voting for tax cuts, maintaining negative gearing on investment properties, and increased university fees, and reductions in social welfare and medicare, and more funding for elite private schools and all of the usual s**t that the Liberals typically pull. People have the memories of goldfish. Remember, plenty of young people were happy to ignore the government's abysmal climate record just for the chance to destroy their superannuation and get into the ponzi scheme known as our housing market. What sugar rush will the Liberals promise next election?

IMHO, Anthony Albanese is going to have a tough time wining the next election, let alone in 2028.
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I think that's the whole point. By the time the 2025 election rolls around, that's 12 years since Abbott was elected which is a very long time in any sense. That's 12 years of conservatives dying off and a new generation of environmently aware voters. That's not to mention the shift in the Teal movement focusing on climate change who were elected with climate at the forefront of their campaign. People do change their minds about things and 9 years ago it seemed like less of an issue.

If we continue to see the magnitude of national disasters that we've had in the past couple of years, it would be hard to see a majority of Australians backing away from climate action like they did 9 years ago.
 
Tyberious Funk said:
People forget that the big selling point to the teal independents will probably be moot in a few year.

We either take action on climate change, or we are completely ducked.

Remember, it was less than 10 years ago that Tony Abbott romped to victory on the promise of repealing Labor's climate policies. Most of the moderate electorates had positive swings towards the Liberals back then (and you could add in the Palmer votes, too). The 'moderates' in those electorates didn't seem to care much about climate change back then. They were happy to turf Labor, knowing full well that we would go backward on climate policy.

Fast forward to today... and NOW they are all up in arms and want to take action. Really? They FINALLY believe the science? Or perhaps they always knew it was true it's just now they are all shitting their pants because they realise that the climate doesn't care whether you are rich or poor.

The problem is that Labor and the Greens will need to do all the 'heavy lifting' in terms of climate policy. And once it is mostly accepted and integrated into everyday life... the teal electorates will forget about it and go back to voting for tax cuts, maintaining negative gearing on investment properties, and increased university fees, and reductions in social welfare and medicare, and more funding for elite private schools and all of the usual s**t that the Liberals typically pull. People have the memories of goldfish. Remember, plenty of young people were happy to ignore the government's abysmal climate record just for the chance to destroy their superannuation and get into the ponzi scheme known as our housing market. What sugar rush will the Liberals promise next election?

IMHO, Anthony Albanese is going to have a tough time wining the next election, let alone in 2028.
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It's not all about climate, ICAC and respect for women fuelled the Teals as well. If the next 3 years are relatively smooth they will try and pitch the fact that they have momentum and want to continue on with the job. The issue is when the highly skilled independents like Ryan have had enough and want to go back to their day job, it'll be finding a suitable highly skilled replacement.

As others have said, the next few generations will have more green/teal/independent voters as they aren't historically tied to voting for a party since birth.

Social media has changed things since the Abbott days and cut through the crap as well. No more believing what the Murdoch's and Sky as you can easily find the truth. Who the hell reads newspapers and editorials any more.

I'm hoping Chalmers steps into the leadership void if any to keep the momentum going, so far he seems like a seriously impressive operator.

Also, if ICAC does it's job properly, that could literally wipe out half of the remaining Liberals. It's hard to name many that have a clean slate.
 

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Malifice said:
Not some token Deputy.

Actually put a woman front and centre to show they've learnt.
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Does anyone even care about the deputy of the liberals? At least the leader of the Nats is the deputy opposition leader
 
JackFlash said:
Albo might not make it to 2025, his own party will see to that? The knives are already out as Penny Wong looms large behind him, at some point, the strings will break and Albo will get the heave-ho. Not at the next election, but by his own colleagues! It won't take long before people realise what a terrible mistake they have just made, in the meantime get ready for some very tough times and some lunacy never before seen in Australia.
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As mentioned by other posters, how can penny Wong be prime Minister?

I reckon Albanese will make it to 2025.

Again..... What makes you think someone like a cold blooded human being like Dutton will be prime Minister in the next election?
 
JackFlash said:
:rolleyes: The reactions are priceless, people are feeling the same way as they did in 2007 when Kevin 07 had a 70% approval rating and never made it through his first term? They were saying the same thing back then, Labor will be in office for ten years! Party infighting then led to his downfall and Julia's, before the budgie smuggler took over. This time Labor will have to contend with the independents and Greens, it should make for a fun time in Parliament while it lasts? It would be much better if this Government have a majority and not go scratching the backs of the "Teals"? It will be bad enough keeping the looney Greens at bay? I actually like Albo, he comes from my era of musical taste, so that's one plus, but I worry about the puppet masters behind him? Still, you never know, I hope he does well for all our sake. :) Onward and upward!
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And where's your precious Budgie smuggler?

Where's tough man Tony Abbott? LoL


Oh that's right, Like Kevin Rudd before him, Tough man Tony Abbott was stabbed in the back by his own party too.
 
Golden_6 said:
I think that's the whole point. By the time the 2025 election rolls around, that's 12 years since Abbott was elected which is a very long time in any sense. That's 12 years of conservatives dying off and a new generation of environmently aware voters. That's not to mention the shift in the Teal movement focusing on climate change who were elected with climate at the forefront of their campaign. People do change their minds about things and 9 years ago it seemed like less of an issue.

If we continue to see the magnitude of national disasters that we've had in the past couple of years, it would be hard to see a majority of Australians backing away from climate action like they did 9 years ago.
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I'm not saying they'll back away... I'm saying they'll assume the problem has been solved and they'll move onto worrying about other things. Climate scientists have been warning us about impending doom for years. The fact that it seemed like less of an issue 9 years ago just shows what a bubble some of these people live in. They WANTED to believe it wasn't really an issue and deluded themselves into thinking that voting for Tony Abbott would be ok. Now they are slowly starting to realise we are facing a global catastrophe and finally they decide to do something. Even then, there are still comfortably ~45% in some of these electorates that were still happy to vote for the status quo. IMHO, the moment we start to develop more robust carbon policies, they'll assume everything is fixed and go back to their lives and go back to voting for the Liberals.

Scott Morrison had no issue trying to sell the lie that he supported electric vehicles, despite being confronted with direct evidence from the 2019 campaign. Why would he be so brazen? Because he knows that it works. It's so easy to lie to an electorate when they want to believe you.

I'm happy to bookmark it now. IMHO, 2025 will be a close election. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will.
 
Xtreme said:
The LNP will win the 2025 federal election. The ALP will be too busy drinking their own bath water to notice that the public support has evaporated just like KRudd the dud.
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Unlikely mate. So who's gonna be the prime Minister if the liberals win in 2025?

Dutton?

Frydenberg?

Abbott?

Scott Morrison?

Turnbull?
 
BlueBayou said:
first time I've ever read 'sky news' and 'scientists' in the same sentence....
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Sky News discovers proof that Scientists are actually just dyslexia Dentists.
 
ferball said:
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Elite musical taste friend!


As to the demise of the coalition, the more I think about it the more it seems unavoidable.
This is not a standard electoral defeat its the destruction of the very fabric of the Liberal party.
The Nationals are now essentially the senior coaliltion partner with more seats in the party room than the Libs (the QLD LNP was always National dominated and the seats there that were notionaly 'Liberal' are mostly now Green/Red.)
The few remaining Libs are owned by the Happy clappers.
All this means the Teals are not going away so Labor have the classic 'Divide & Conquer' scenario to utilize from here on in.

Menzies held power for decades courtesy of the DLP split with the ALP.
One Nation did the same thing for Howard by leeching tradional blue collar Labor votes.

Payback time bitchez
 
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