Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[yebiga]

Deal with reality, not the brainwashing narrative you swimming in.
Russia, get the farkk out of Ukraine and look after your own people.
Then we can hopefully clean up the mess they created and allow normal life to continue there.

I thought you knew - Approaches to Odessa have been minded by the Ukrainian armed forces.

 

[footyfan1978]

Maybe he wanted to make sure his family was safe first, or on the flip side there may be some ulterior motive as the war has dragged on? Who knows but it is a valid point you make.

Sadly, it probably a bit of all of it. I doubt we will ever know his real reasons for only coming out with this now.

 

[footyfan1978]

I thought

Not really. You parrot what you been brainwashed with.

 

[Mobbs]

48 Russian servicemen will be tried for war crimes in Ukraine, - Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Venediktova said that about 13,000 cases of Russian war crimes are now being investigated. Ukrainian officials have a list of about 600 suspects.

 

[Mobbs]

Kirill Rogov, political analyst.

THE COMFORT OF CAPITULATION: WHY THE KREMLIN AND THE WEST NEED A “CEASE-FIRE”

If 10 days ago my discussions about the possibility of a conflict freezing scenario that would win for Putin caused a wave of indignation, today this is not only a universally recognized basic scenario for the development of events, but also a point of application for the efforts of the major Western “ceasefire” lobby. A massive armistice plan was proposed by the Italian government.

It cannot be said that the "ceasefire" strategy, i.e. strategy for forcing Ukraine to Minsk-3, but with much more extensive Russian-occupied territories, there was no rational basis. First, Russian troops continue to expand, albeit extremely slowly, their zone of control in the southeast of Ukraine. Secondly, the West does not have an effective plan to implement the oil and gas embargo against Russia, the expectations of the embargo are driving oil and gas prices up, and Saudi Arabia, apparently, refuses to help the West in solving this problem. All this together has a destabilizing effect on the Western coalition.

These reasonable arguments should not, however, obscure our understanding of the political implications of a ceasefire agreement. A truce would benefit the Kremlin, hurt Ukraine, and demonstrate the West's weakness in the face of Putin's "up the stakes" strategy. In the camp of "illiberal capitalism" it will be perceived as the capitulation of the West and a new demonstration that "Volodya gets away with everything, because he is not afraid, but frightens THEM."

The practical consequences of the ceasefire agreement are well known - they will be a repetition of the consequences of the Minsk agreements. Russia will gain a foothold in the occupied territories and intensively integrate them. It is possible that Putin will use the threat of their inclusion in Russia in a bargain, but perhaps he will quickly declare the territories part of Russia. As a result, by the way, there will also be a pretext for a new war at a convenient time for Putin: the restoration of the occupied territories within their administrative boundaries (as was the case in February). The West will have to swallow it, simply because it "has no more sanctions left." And in this case, the West will look especially pathetic: it will turn out that he himself lobbied for a scenario that repeats how he was just kicked in the ass.

Of course, the main consequence of the ceasefire agreement will be the postponement of Europe's strategy of withdrawing from Russian energy carriers. Of course, as a goal, it will remain on the agenda, but plans for the restructuring of European energy markets will acquire the features of a Soviet long-term construction.

It is important to understand the main political implication of the ceasefire agreement. The end of active hostilities will remove Ukraine from the current agenda of European public opinion. European leaders - Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Schulz and Mario Draghi - will not be subjected to such pressure from below in favor of Ukraine. This will lead not only to postponing the de-Russification of the European energy market, but also to another major consequence that the Kremlin is counting on: the actual easing of sanctions.

In a globalized economy, sanctions are not such a simple thing. How to restrict the movement of goods and capital in those countries that have not joined them? Sanction them too, completely politicizing world trade? In the acute phase of the conflict, public opinion demands the effectiveness of punishment, so the incentives to impose secondary sanctions are high. War is war. But in the conditions of a truce and the absence of pressure from below, secondary sanctions look too burdensome for national business. As the experience of sanctions in 2014-2015 showed, after a couple of years of “peaceful coexistence”, sanctions turn into an empty wrapper. Ways to circumvent them are worked out, substitutes and schemes appear, as a result, primary sanctions turn out to be just a convenient way to save face, the real value of which everyone knows very well.

“Surrender is a feeling of comfort and security. Just relax and enjoy. And remember that Volodya always gets away with everything, because he is not afraid, but frightens.

Did you want it?

Rogov was a trailblazer in turning Russian politican analysis into an online thing, has had roles at Kommersant and Novaya Gazeta in the past.

 

[owen87]

If the black sea approaching Odessa has been minded by Ukrainians to prevent Russian landing and as a consequence Cargo Ships are not capable of reaching Odessa to load grain for Africa - because of these mines - isn't this as much Zelensky's and NATO's legacy?

By all accounts they have not. The Rouble is now under 60 to the US dollar - 58 over night - having commenced at 73 to the Dollar prior to 24th of February.
The Rouble is by far the strongest performing currency in the year 2022. China and India are importing unprecedented levels of Russian commodities. And the inflationary impact on commodity prices due to the sanctions - means the Russians are flush with a current account surplus and foreign currencies.

Commentators forget that Russia has had a lot of experience dealing with sanctions over the years. There is compelling reasons to believe that on this occasion - for the first time - they have prepared their economy for this. And this time - for the first time - they have fully re-aligned themselves away from the west and to the east.

Domestic inflation in Russia rose sharply in March, stabilised in April and appears to steady in May. The question is now how does Europe's industry - particularly in Germany - cope with sharp energy prices. Can German goods remain competitive against Asian competitors?

I thought you knew - Approaches to Odessa have been minded by the Ukrainian armed forces.

 

[Mobbs]

The first dispatch of conscripts in Angarsk, Irkutsk region. The farewell ceremony was held in a solemn atmosphere at the monument to the victorious soldiers, to the sounds of a military orchestra. Such solemn dispatches to the army are now taking place in all regions of Siberia.



I am uncertain in what way Sibirmedia here uses the term "conscripts".
It might mean

• conscripts gathered outside of the standard bi-annual national service-like conscription,
• the first of those recruited via the April instalment of the above,
• that no conscripts have been sent to Ukraine prior to now (this yearm, anyway) or
• something else I haven't even thought of.

I do know that one guy I know by degrees of separation, who had already been in Ukraine in previous operations but came home prior the events of February, has not yet been called back (although is generally expecting it).

Some of the comments on this post include suggestions that they have ways to avoid being called up. Even in the comments (albeit it's all in Russian and ****ed if I can translate it all correctly), there seems even to be some education of each other that these are conscripts, and what a conscript actually is. So I guess it's not just me.

 

[footyfan1978]

Some of the comments on this post include suggestions that they have ways to avoid being called up. Even in the comments (albeit it's all in Russian and ducked if I can translate it all correctly), there seems even to be some education of each other that these are conscripts, and what a conscript actually is. So I guess it's not just me.

Sadly, I suspect the ones out well away from the big centres of Moskow and St.Petersburg find it harder to avoid being called up.
In the major cities, I heard lots more can. Cannot remember where I heard that but somewhere in last month or two remember hearing stories of that. They are just cannon fodder for Putin. It is madness to think over 30 years ago you get out of the Soviet Union and the people of Russia had all that time to progress closer and closer to a modern country where people chose the people that run their country but they failed to do anything significant about it and now they are beholden to what Putin tells them to do. Too much apathy and they will pay with the lives of their sons , brothers, husbands, uncles etc etc.
30 years pissed down the toilet in such a short space of time this year.

 

[footyfan1978]

 

[Marcel Proust]

Odessa is well fortified.

You don't think it's been mined?

 

[owen87]

Odessa is well fortified.

You don't think it's been mined?

Certainly you'd take issue with Ukraine doing anything to impede the Russian invasion.

Funny how you manage to consistently find ways to ignore Russia's culpability in everything.

Back to the conspiracy board if you want to find fellow Russia-bots.

 

[Mobbs]

Sadly, I suspect the ones out well away from the big centres of Moskow and St.Petersburg find it harder to avoid being called up.
In the major cities, I heard lots more can. Cannot remember where I heard that but somewhere in last month or two remember hearing stories of that. They are just cannon fodder for Putin. It is madness to think over 30 years ago you get out of the Soviet Union and the people of Russia had all that time to progress closer and closer to a modern country where people chose the people that run their country but they failed to do anything significant about it and now they are beholden to what Putin tells them to do. Too much apathy and they will pay with the lives of their sons , brothers, husbands, uncles etc etc.
30 years pissed down the toilet in such a short space of time this year.

If you are gay, or if you have specific health issues, you can avoid it. Alexey Balykov said he had flat feet and for that reason they didn't take him (during the bi-annuals years ago, he's like in his 30s or something now).
Additionally, you can actually refuse to be a part of an operation, through essentially writing a letter. For this, though, you get a bad person stamp on the letter, and some other ramifications which I think amounts to a kind of a black mark.
[about the ability to refuse to fight]
[an example of a stamped refusal form]

However the way they are chatting about it seems to be discussing more of a "well why did they ask to be conscripted then, instead of going and getting a different job?" Which seems to be different. Or perhaps they are just ignorant of the dearth of choices ...

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If the black sea approaching Odessa has been minded by Ukrainians to prevent Russian landing and as a consequence Cargo Ships are not capable of reaching Odessa to load grain for Africa - because of these mines - isn't this as much Zelensky's and NATO's legacy?

Congratulations, I think you have just managed the dumbest comment on this entire thread

 

[Mobbs]

Certainly you'd take issue with Ukraine doing anything to impede the Russian invasion.

Funny how you manage to consistently find ways to ignore Russia's culpability in everything.

Back to the conspiracy board if you want to find fellow Russia-bots.

It's an adorable narrative.

1. Russia attacks Ukraine, parks its arse in the middle of the Black Sea and bombs Odessa.
2. Ukraine takes steps to defend Odessa.
3. Reponse : Can't get at Ukraine's wheat now. *en Ukraine. So inconsiderate.

PS: Russia are stealing all Ukraine's wheat anyway. [link]

 

[owen87]

It's an adorable narrative.

1. Russia attacks Ukraine, parks its arse in the middle of the Black Sea and bombs Odessa.
2. Ukraine takes steps to defend Odessa.
3. Reponse : Can't get at Ukraine's wheat now. ducken Ukraine. So inconsiderate.

PS: Russia are stealing all Ukraine's wheat anyway. [link]

Marcel was also upset the Ukrainian's didn't simply hand over Kiev don't forget.

Apparently the solution is to just give Putin whatever he wants. That way he'll be satisfied and not want more. Like Hitler.

 

[yebiga]

It's an adorable narrative.

1. Russia attacks Ukraine, parks its arse in the middle of the Black Sea and bombs Odessa.
2. Ukraine takes steps to defend Odessa.
3. Reponse : Can't get at Ukraine's wheat now. ducken Ukraine. So inconsiderate.

PS: Russia are stealing all Ukraine's wheat anyway. [link]

They are all Russians Anyways

 

[Saint]

By all accounts they have not. The Rouble is now under 60 to the US dollar - 58 over night - having commenced at 73 to the Dollar prior to 24th of February.
The Rouble is by far the strongest performing currency in the year 2022. China and India are importing unprecedented levels of Russian commodities. And the inflationary impact on commodity prices due to the sanctions - means the Russians are flush with a current account surplus and foreign currencies.

Commentators forget that Russia has had a lot of experience dealing with sanctions over the years. There is compelling reasons to believe that on this occasion - for the first time - they have prepared their economy for this. And this time - for the first time - they have fully re-aligned themselves away from the west and to the east.

Domestic inflation in Russia rose sharply in March, stabilised in April and appears to steady in May. The question is now how does Europe's industry - particularly in Germany - cope with sharp energy prices. Can German goods remain competitive against Asian competitors?

The ruble survived because Russia pumped foreign currency into the market to buy it up, initially and China is giving them foreign currency through the back door for cheap oil.

It's further entrenched Russia as being completely reliant on a single industry - oil and gas. And the profits to go the few. They've completely finished their defence industry now nearly all of their buyers of military hardware have now switched to other suppliers. It's a banana republic just like any other middle eastern oil country.

More Russian peasants will die of starvation and deprivation in the coming winter than civilians and military will die in the war in the Ukraine.

As always in Russia, the poor bear the brunt.

 

[Saint]

They are all Russians Anyways

I think you mean they're all Ukrainians anyways. Kyiv was Rus before Moscow even existed and St Petersburg was a swamp.

 

[footyfan1978]

If you are gay, or if you have specific health issues, you can avoid it. Alexey Balykov said he had flat feet and for that reason they didn't take him (during the bi-annuals years ago, he's like in his 30s or something now).
Additionally, you can actually refuse to be a part of an operation, through essentially writing a letter. For this, though, you get a bad person stamp on the letter, and some other ramifications which I think amounts to a kind of a black mark.
[about the ability to refuse to fight]
[an example of a stamped refusal form]

However the way they are chatting about it seems to be discussing more of a "well why did they ask to be conscripted then, instead of going and getting a different job?" Which seems to be different. Or perhaps they are just ignorant of the dearth of choices ...

I think it will really just be about if you in a city there more ways to get out of it. More people, more doctors, more creative excuses, more enablers of corrupt bureaucracy etc. etc.
Just more links of corruption so enough links in the chain get their roubles or gifts to ensure somebody's son can get out of their the national obligation.

"Flat feet"... rofl... absolute tosser, but creative tosser.

 

[footyfan1978]

Congratulations, I think you have just managed the dumbest comment on this entire thread

Nyet, Marcel had him covered in the earlier days of this war by length of the Flemington straight.
The brainwashed versions of Dumb and Dumber.

 

[footyfan1978]

It's an adorable narrative.

1. Russia attacks Ukraine, parks its arse in the middle of the Black Sea and bombs Odessa.
2. Ukraine takes steps to defend Odessa.
3. Reponse : Can't get at Ukraine's wheat now. ducken Ukraine. So inconsiderate.

PS: Russia are stealing all Ukraine's wheat anyway. [link]

Not all of it.
Some just sitting in the ports there.
Remember hearing a Ukraine man in that industry on radio talking about it late last week.

 

[Lethality]

By all accounts they have not. The Rouble is now under 60 to the US dollar - 58 over night - having commenced at 73 to the Dollar prior to 24th of February.
The Rouble is by far the strongest performing currency in the year 2022. China and India are importing unprecedented levels of Russian commodities. And the inflationary impact on commodity prices due to the sanctions - means the Russians are flush with a current account surplus and foreign currencies.

Commentators forget that Russia has had a lot of experience dealing with sanctions over the years. There is compelling reasons to believe that on this occasion - for the first time - they have prepared their economy for this. And this time - for the first time - they have fully re-aligned themselves away from the west and to the east.

Domestic inflation in Russia rose sharply in March, stabilised in April and appears to steady in May. The question is now how does Europe's industry - particularly in Germany - cope with sharp energy prices. Can German goods remain competitive against Asian competitors?

The Russian economy has always been reported as resilient according to what I've seen. The usual assurance is that it will take time to see an effect from sanctions.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I think you mean they're all Ukrainians anyways. Kyiv was Rus before Moscow even existed and St Petersburg was a swamp.

Novgorod was the original power base

 

[LittleG]

I think it will really just be about if you in a city there more ways to get out of it. More people, more doctors, more creative excuses, more enablers of corrupt bureaucracy etc. etc.
Just more links of corruption so enough links in the chain get their roubles or gifts to ensure somebody's son can get out of their the national obligation.

"Flat feet"... rofl... absolute tosser, but creative tosser.

One of my colleagues turned down his conscription (not Russia) by hacking into the system and changing his record to say that he was employed by the government security services.

He got caught and his sentence is longer than his conscription would have been. BUT he was given the choice of working in the security services instead of jail…. so, he could technically argue that he does now work in the security services.

 

[owen87]

Novgorod was the original power base

Brief History of Novgorod in Dates

Novgorod was considered to be the second main city after Kiev in Ancient Rus' in the mid centuries. It was a rich and a powerful city, and the State of Novgorod was as large as the present Sweden.

waytorussia.net

Novgorod was considered to be the second main city after Kiev

Whoops.