2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[Pessimistic]

6% isn't that much considering how much it swung to Labor.

People who voted Labor and hated doing it won't do it two elections in a row .

If they continue culture wars and crime is rampant crap look out. I don’t think Dutton will be saying much this time

 

[Ned_Flanders]

If they continue culture wars and crime is rampant crap look out. I don’t think Dutton will be saying much this time

Dutton cant - gangs of brighton fails his pantone card of fear test

 

[William Wonka]

Those townhouses and apartments aren’t cheap either

True.
But some of them are being leased by Labor/Greens voters working 60 hours a week to afford the rent

 

[Crankyhawk]

Never heard of them so I decided to look up their website. Very very minimal policies on their website other than a two paragraph blurb. They'll have to do much better than that to get me to consider my vote. I'd be open to a third party as long as they aren't infiltrated by freedom and anti-vax types. From their website.

"The devastating impact of lock-downs, restrictions and vaccine mandates and passports was felt across Victorian Society, negatively impacting and touching everyone in the State from all backgrounds and areas and destroying many lives. The Party’s founders were motivated by their determination to ensure that the Victorian people are never again subjected to such draconian “emergency” restrictions and government overreach."

sound like anti vaxxer cooker party

 

[Crankyhawk]

I actually think the Greens will do very well in Victoria.

Greens would do well to target the safer labor seats imo; could sneak a few. I am looking for any meaningful alternative to the ALP in my safe seat (7% swing needed)

 

[Crankyhawk]

Sure I’m in the cheap seats.

Expelling Bernie Finn says everything.

expelling bernie finn is a positive for Guy.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

expelling bernie finn is a positive for Guy.

I don't agree. It won't win him a single vote but it will sure lose him a bunch.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I don't agree. It won't win him a single vote but it will sure lose him a bunch.

and where will those votes eventually get to (via preferential voting), they wont go to Dan. Sure the first preferences will go to cooker anti vaxxers, but after all of them, the votes still come back to lnp
while for those like myself who want to see something constructive out of vic LNP, doing things like expelling finn is a good start. Right now my first preference is green with second going to LNP, due to LNP showing something under guy indicating looking for accountability.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

and where will those votes eventually get to (via preferential voting), they wont go to Dan. Sure the first preferences will go to cooker anti vaxxers, but after all of them, the votes still come back to lnp
while for those like myself who want to see something constructive out of vic LNP, doing things like expelling finn is a good start. Right now my first preference is green with second going to LNP, due to LNP showing something under guy indicating looking for accountability.

I agree with you that logically that would happen, but it doesn't seem to, at least not uniformly enough to make up for their departure.

I don't quite understand the science behind it but Antony Green talks about it every election. The preference flow from Greens to Labor is far more "disciplined" than that of, say, One Nation to the Coalition.

That said, this may well be a unique election where plenty of Green types (and perhaps construction people) are that shitty with Andrews over his inflexibility that preferences are less uniform from the left.

But issues like abortion, climate change, and more recently vaccinations are not as (electorally) black and white as many would like to think, and abandoning sceptical voters, rather than at least trying to give them a modicum of representation, is political suicide for the Coalition.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

Andrews deserves to be punished at the ballot box.

However, the Vic Libs are hopeless. Would be shocked if they pulled off a win somehow.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

I agree with you that logically that would happen, but it doesn't seem to, at least not uniformly enough to make up for their departure.

I don't quite understand the science behind it but Antony Green talks about it every election. The preference flow from Greens to Labor is far more "disciplined" than that of, say, One Nation to the Coalition.

I assume it was similar at the 2022 Federal Election, but in 2019, 82% of Greens preferences flowed back to Labor.

In comparison, about 60% of One Nation votes flowed back to the Coalition from memory.

 

[Jascave]

What would the Coalition need to do if they were to have any chance of pulling off the biggest upset since the 'Miracle of '99' in the Victorian state election this year?

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

You're right and it's completely lazy to call it as such. Take Kooyong for example. It's quite clearly ALP/Greens voters with a smattering of LNP thrown in.

Swings:
Independent (Ryan) +40%
LNP -6%
ALP -11%
Greens - 15%
Independent (Yates) -9%

Kooyong's demographics have changed significantly in the past decade or so.

• There's 6,000 more women than men in the electorate.
• Younger population is increasing.
• Increased number of renters, particularly in the Hawthorn area which skewed heavily for Ryan.
• Ryan performed best in the Hawthorn area.
• Frydenberg was better in Balwyn North, Deepdene and Balwyn which has less renters.

High income earners (+$150,000) and those who own homes still voted Liberal for the most part.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

What would the Coalition need to do if they were to have any chance of pulling off the biggest upset since the 'Miracle of '99' in the Victorian state election this year?

As a starting point, attempt to win back as many seats it won in 2014, but lost in 2018.

• Bass
• Bayswater
• Box Hill
• Burwood
• Hawthorn
• Morwell
• Mount Waverley (split into new seats of Ashwood and Glen Waverley)
• Nepean
• Ringwood
• South Barwon

 

[Crankyhawk]

I agree with you that logically that would happen, but it doesn't seem to, at least not uniformly enough to make up for their departure.

I don't quite understand the science behind it but Antony Green talks about it every election. The preference flow from Greens to Labor is far more "disciplined" than that of, say, One Nation to the Coalition.

That said, this may well be a unique election where plenty of Green types (and perhaps construction people) are that shitty with Andrews over his inflexibility that preferences are less uniform from the left.

But issues like abortion, climate change, and more recently vaccinations are not as (electorally) black and white as many would like to think, and abandoning sceptical voters, rather than at least trying to give them a modicum of representation, is political suicide for the Coalition.

Those people are only a modicum of the population, why should coalition represent them when it costs them the opportunity to get more votes from the center?

And abortion is already settled at what appears to be a satisfactory point in vic. Certainly not an election swinging issue

 

[Kwality]

What would the Coalition need to do if they were to have any chance of pulling off the biggest upset since the 'Miracle of '99' in the Victorian state election this year?

An advertising campaign that bettered the one that sent the Libs packing .... Mumbrellawe-knew-the-job-we-had-to-do-on-morrison-dee-madigan-on-labors-campaign-739104

 

[pazza]

Am expecting a primary vote swing against Andrews impacting the Legislative Council but it won't be enough to unseat Legislative Assembly members. The "freedumb" types did get a bit of the primary vote federally and nearly got a Senator out of it.

Expecting the Greens to possibly get 1 to 2 more inner city seats where their vote is very strong.

 

[DaRick]

Andrews deserves to be punished at the ballot box.

However, the Vic Libs are hopeless. Would be shocked if they pulled off a win somehow.

VIC's political climate right now is not unlike QLD's during the Bligh era or NSW's during the Iemma/Rees/Kenneally era.

The incumbents are anywhere from clearly flawed (VIC) to pretty bad (QLD) to just plain awful (NSW), but the opposition aren't anywhere near convincing enough to dislodge them for various reasons.

Unfortunately, the VIC Libs seem to be even more hilariously incompetent than the Springborg-era QLD LNP (an uneasy alliance which was led by the wrong man from the wrong place) or the pre-O'Farrell NSW Liberals (who weren't that incompetent and just needed a reasonably charismatic leader to get up).

I just can't see Matthew Guy getting up under any circumstances, especially if the VIC Libs bang on about African gangs again. The best he'll do is win back a few seats.

 

[DaRick]

I assume it was similar at the 2022 Federal Election, but in 2019, 82% of Greens preferences flowed back to Labor.

In comparison, about 60% of One Nation votes flowed back to the Coalition from memory.

In 2019, ON flows were closer to 70/30 than 60/40. That's a big part of the reason why the ALP performed so poorly in QLD then.

In 2022, I'd say that Greens flows to the ALP were as high as 90/10 because prior to the 2022 election, Melbourne was their hub and ScoMo was heavily disliked in your neck of the woods. Plus ScoMo was known as the 'holy coaler' and the Greens really don't like coal. ON flows were IMO around 65/35.

 

[Kwality]

if the VIC Libs bang on about African gangs again.

Why would they do that ?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Why would they do that ?

Because the Vic Libs are not that bright

 

[Jascave]

One thing to watch out for when the TV debates between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy starts during the course of the election campaign is when the question of Victoria's response to COVID-19 will be raised during a debate (whether it's with 3 journos or the Sky News People's Forum) and in particular, the 6 lockdowns. How Andrews and Guy will answer the issue will be interesting to see.

 

[William Wonka]

One thing to watch out for when the TV debates between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy starts during the course of the election campaign is when the question of Victoria's response to COVID-19 will be raised during a debate (whether it's with 3 journos or the Sky News People's Forum) and in particular, the 6 lockdowns. How Andrews and Guy will answer the issue will be interesting to see.

No one watches Vic election debates

 

[Harro59]

VIC's political climate right now is not unlike QLD's during the Bligh era or NSW's during the Iemma/Rees/Kenneally era.

The incumbents are anywhere from clearly flawed (VIC) to pretty bad (QLD) to just plain awful (NSW), but the opposition aren't anywhere near convincing enough to dislodge them for various reasons.

Unfortunately, the VIC Libs seem to be even more hilariously incompetent than the Springborg-era QLD LNP (an uneasy alliance which was led by the wrong man from the wrong place) or the pre-O'Farrell NSW Liberals (who weren't that incompetent and just needed a reasonably charismatic leader to get up).

I just can't see Matthew Guy getting up under any circumstances, especially if the VIC Libs bang on about African gangs again. The best he'll do is win back a few seats.

Surely even the Vic Libs could claw back few seats from a government that had Victoria in lock down for 6 months.


Not sure they'll win or get that close but they should bring themselves back into the relevance at least.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

One thing to watch out for when the TV debates between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy starts during the course of the election campaign is when the question of Victoria's response to COVID-19 will be raised during a debate (whether it's with 3 journos or the Sky News People's Forum) and in particular, the 6 lockdowns. How Andrews and Guy will answer the issue will be interesting to see.

We have already heard them, why do you think they will answer any differently