Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[Frank Grimes]

Its a bit of a finger point exercise but when you break it all down both major parties have pretty much cooked the housing market and there is every chance its going to bust in the next year, 5 years, 10 years or 50 years.

Shame on both parties for not having the guts to try and fix this up when they both had the chance. If it all goes to s*it its the reason voters will probably continue to drift away from both parties.

Federal Labor did try to remove negative gearing and reduce the Capital Gains Tax discount, but it wasn't a vote winner and may even have been detrimental to them in the election. They must have determined it was detrimental to them because they scrapped it as a policy.

The state governments would be interested in having more investors the owner occupants. The reason being is that investors pay stamp duty AND an annual land tax. An owner occupier it just pays stamp duty. Also the higher the price of the property the higher the tax paid for both stamp duty and land tax.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

And BANG it's all over.
Take your cryptocurrency,trades with plastic 4wd,s and trailers,over priced plastic houses( with spa bath) and your overseas holidays and suck on a fat bit of rope.
Boom all over, dow crashed,asx to follow and jobs and housing completely finished by Xmas.
Millennial crying will go on for 5 years.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

And BANG it's all over.
Take your cryptocurrency,trades with plastic 4wd,s and trailers,over priced plastic houses( with spa bath) and your overseas holidays and suck on a fat bit of rope.
Boom all over, dow crashed,asx to follow and jobs and housing completely finished by Xmas.
Millennial crying will go on for 5 years.

Scotty's 4% unemployment was meaningless then and now even more so now.

The next 6 months is going to be a blood bath.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Scotty's 4% unemployment was meaningless then and now even more so now.

The next 6 months is going to be a blood bath.

Yep.
And the under 45,s don't even know or understand what is gonna happen.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Yep.
And the under 45,s don't even know or understand what is gonna happen.

i wouldn't say that. i am well under 45 and well aware what is about to happen.

a recession was on the cards some time ago, those that entered into unsustainable debt within the last 2 years are the ones who are going to suffer.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

i wouldn't say that. i am well under 45 and well aware what is about to happen.

a recession was on the cards some time ago, those that entered into unsustainable debt within the last 2 years are the ones who are going to suffer.

Didn't mean you,meant generally.
I'm talking a dead employment market.
Nearly zero house sales
Nobody affording 2 hand 4wd,s
Tradies not willing to take a factory job to make ends meet.
Tradies wives not affording nails and hair cuts.
Nobody buying 2nd hand jetskis.,motorbikes canoes,paddle boards and sail boards.
Having to use the stove to cook.
Making kids walk or catchbus to school.

The millennial will starve and their brains will
Cave in.

Will be an interesting time.

 

[Cuzz09]

Didn't mean you,meant generally.
I'm talking a dead employment market.
Nearly zero house sales
Nobody affording 2 hand 4wd,s
Tradies not willing to take a factory job to make ends meet.
Tradies wives not affording nails and hair cuts.
Nobody buying 2nd hand jetskis.,motorbikes canoes,paddle boards and sail boards.
Having to use the stove to cook.
Making kids walk or catchbus to school.

The millennial will starve and their brains will
Cave in.

Will be an interesting time.

SOUNDS INTERESTING

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[kickazz]

Tradies not willing to take a factory job to make ends meet.

What factories?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Didn't mean you,meant generally.
I'm talking a dead employment market.
Nearly zero house sales
Nobody affording 2 hand 4wd,s
Tradies not willing to take a factory job to make ends meet.
Tradies wives not affording nails and hair cuts.
Nobody buying 2nd hand jetskis.,motorbikes canoes,paddle boards and sail boards.
Having to use the stove to cook.
Making kids walk or catchbus to school.

The millennial will starve and their brains will
Cave in.

Will be an interesting time.

Most people Under 45 would have been working during the GFC, so most know what a recession is like.

Our Government are the morons here. They let everyone get so indebted that this recession will hurt more than all previous.

 

[kickazz]

Most people Under 45 would have been working during the GFC, so most know what a recession is like.

Our Government are the morons here. They let everyone get so indebted that this recession will hurt more than all previous.

Introducing QE (yes I know the RBA did that but it was kind of needed for Jobkeeper), Jobkeeper and simultaneously repealing the stricter lending criteria was really dumb.

Pretending that low unemployment was a function of anything other than low/no immigration was classic Emperor's New Clothes.

All the while productivity was obviously down.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Introducing QE (yes I know the RBA did that but it was kind of needed for Jobkeeper), Jobkeeper and simultaneously repealing the stricter lending criteria was really dumb.

Pretending that low unemployment was a function of anything other than low/no immigration was classic Emperor's New Clothes.

All the while productivity was obviously down.

The Governments complete and utter ineptitude at managing houses prices is what the real issue is here.

They let housing get so over inflated and so indebted that people can barley handle simple rate rises.

 

[kickazz]

The Governments complete and utter ineptitude at managing houses prices is what the real issue is here.

They let housing get so over inflated and so indebted that people can barley handle simple rate rises.

Ineptitude would be one way to describe it, but policy after policy has made it seem like a much more deliberate undertaking. Stupid, yes. But still deliberate.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Ineptitude would be one way to describe it, but policy after policy has made it seem like a much more deliberate undertaking. Stupid, yes. But still deliberate.

I suppose you are right.

When Fed Ministers own an estimated $300m of investment properties, you don't need to think too hard why they wouldn't want housing prices going down.

 

[Gigantic]

UBank now offering 35 year term home loans.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

UBank now offering 35 year term home loans.

We will have 40 year mortgages by the end of 2029.

Interesting they only offer a 5 year fixed mortage. Huge de risk for them.

 

[Cuzz09]

I guess if you take out a 30 year mortgage and redraw on it over the years and have a few years left paying bits n pieces its the same

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[hamohawk1]

This all comes back to the the western world pumping way too much money into the economy over the past 2 years. Would love to pot the libs but labor would've done the exact same thing, they were pushing for such scheme.

 

[Deliverance]

Even further back than that, to post-GFC. The can has been kicked a longways down the road.

 

[Evolved1]

ATH property and stock prices during a pandemic never made any sense to me. You can only prop the markets up so long before something gives, and I for one would love to see a big dump in property prices so our youth can get their foot in the door.

 

[Number37]

ATH property and stock prices during a pandemic never made any sense to me. You can only prop the markets up so long before something gives, and I for one would love to see a big dump in property prices so our youth can get their foot in the door.

If the rate of return > the cost of capital you would borrow money and pump it into the stock market until your nose bleeds.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

This all comes back to the the western world pumping way too much money into the economy over the past 2 years. Would love to pot the libs but labor would've done the exact same thing, they were pushing for such scheme.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Allowing your country to get into so much debt in the first place is the real issue. There is no wiggle room.

Inflation comes and goes and will always Do so. Putting your country in a position where it can’t deal with it is the real issue.

Housing prices should have been dealt with years ago to keep them from being this inflated. Australia’s housing has just passed 10 trillion. We are more in mortgage debt than 99.9% of the countries in the world.

 

[darcytiger]

Didn't mean you,meant generally.
I'm talking a dead employment market.
Nearly zero house sales
Nobody affording 2 hand 4wd,s
Tradies not willing to take a factory job to make ends meet.
Tradies wives not affording nails and hair cuts.
Nobody buying 2nd hand jetskis.,motorbikes canoes,paddle boards and sail boards.
Having to use the stove to cook.
Making kids walk or catchbus to school.

The millennial will starve and their brains will
Cave in.

Will be an interesting time.

Show me on the doll where the tradie hurt you

 

[Gigantic]

Uncontrolled inflation + negative real wages means we can't inflate our way out of the debt either. Add to that, years pissed down the drain by the previous government that's caused low productivity because they'd rather sit back and enjoy watching money funnel out of the real economy and into the property market.

 

[hamohawk1]

US hiking rates by 0.75%, if the UK does the same we're on track for similar, if not .50% at the absolute very least.

 

[Evolved1]

If the rate of return > the cost of capital you would borrow money and pump it into the stock market until your nose bleeds.

Markets can dump together.