AFL 2022 AFL Round 18

[BloodRet]

Powell pepper 1.75, 5, 15, 67 pb

Gets hella ball in the 50 looking at his maps. Can be inaccurate, has hit the scoreboard in some capacity every game after round 10 with goals in all except one of them, however he also did not kick multiples in any. With a bit of luck that could change

 

[Selim]

McEvoy 2,3 @3.35, 9.75

Impey 2-4 @7, 23, 81

Waterman 2,3 @4.40, 14

Culley 2,3 @7, 34

Ryan 2-5 @3.20, 9.25, 34, 128

 

[NYRB]

I Like Lukosius AGS @ $2.75 pb - No need for him in the backline with Markov, Bowes and Ellis all there, so he'll play half forward/wing I'd imagine. Essendon are super leaky so think he'll have some chances tomorrow.

2+ @ $14
3+ @ $67

Tailed This . Lukosius is into : AGS @ 2.50, $11 now for 2+ Goals.


Gone for an accumulator

Ainsworth 2+ Goals v Essendon
Rozee 2+ Goals v Melbourne
Ben McEvoy 2+ Goals v WCE
Odds: 33/1 (anything above 18/1 worth a play in my book) from TopSport

Also Doubles on the above. (Anything above 35/1 a recommended play for each)
Ainsworth 3+ Goals, Rozee 3+ Goals @ 76/1 (PointsBet).
Ainsworth 3+ Goals, McEvoy 3+ Goals @ 62/1 (PointsBet)
Rozee 3+ Goals, McEvoy 3+ Goals @ 129/1 (TopSport)

And the hail mary- 3 Leg Multi

Ainsworth 3+ Goals, Rozee 3+ Goals, McEvoy 3+ Goals @ roughly 865/1 (PointsBet Boosted). Same bet at: Ladbrokes would pay roughly 252/1, TAB 280/1, Sportsbet 507/1, TopSport 654/1.


Also another hail mary- Jamaine Jones 3+ Goals @ 97/1, 4+ Goals @ 750/1

 

[NYRB]

Not sure if any of these BetRight markets appeal for anyone today?



Dont mind the Hawks v WCE 1st option at 4.40. I know it may be a bit wet in Melbourne today but that helps for the behinds part of that bet there.

 

[NYRB]

Also looked into the Melbourne weather a bit closely and it doesnt look quite good, so im happy to swap Ben McEvoy

7

Ben Mcevoy

Age

34

Ht

200cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

4.7

2star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

8.5

2star

K

3.9

1star

HB

4.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.8

3star

G

0.4

3star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

for Jake Waterman

2

Jake Waterman

Age

25

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

2star

K

7.8

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

5.8

5star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

in a separate accumulator. Im a bit worried about Ports ruck stocks. Port Adelaide only labelling 1 ruckman going up against Gawn/Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

22

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

, in Finlayson. This really should be game in which the Dees dominate the ruck. Gawn should spend a bit of time in the forward line and even if he spends 35% of time there , getting 2 goals or so is within his grasp.

Izak Rankine

23

Izak Rankine

Age

24

Ht

181cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

5star

G

2.0

5star

2+ Goals v Essendon
Waterman 2+ Goals v Hawthorn
Gawn 2+ Goals v Port Adelaide
Odds: 33.84 @ PointsBet

And gone for the treble involving these 3 players
Rankine 3+ Goals, Waterman 3+ Goals @ 54.60 (with TopSport)
Rankine 3+ Goals, Gawn 3+ Goals @ 54.60 (TopSport)
Waterman 3+ Goals, Gawn 3+ Goals @ 196 (PointsBet)

And the 3 way accumulator 709.80 for all to score 3+ Goals (TopSport)

 

[NYRB]

To add to the goalkickers on b365

Marshall $2.05 (6/11 with Ryder in, Keath to King gives Marshall a Gardner or Schache type)

Coleman-Jones $2.25 - 2/5 this year, North should be reasonably competitive again (sub 8 goals) considering Tigers outs (Balta, Cotchin, Martin, Lynch, rucks, Lambert), like these odds for a 2nd ruck/2nd tall forward

Reeves $2.10 - same as the tip from last week, more tall timber time up forward for Reeves, only needs 1 high ball to mark and kick truly, should get it v WC. Probably worth waiting for teams?

Gawn $1.60 - 2nd week back, should really look to expose Finlayson +- Lycett if he's named. I think he could kick 3 and Jackson to be given more ruck time.

Goldstein without Xerri this year has gone 90, 74, 73, 97 in fantasy points. I like him to dominate the Tigers rucks, or lack thereof. Can easily rack up 40 hitouts+ and should get a few more disposals than his 12 ppg average this year by virtue of more ruck time (av 15.5 without Xerri). Goldstein also got a 108 v Saints when Xerri only played 58% TOG and Goldy got the number 1 ruck role.
North probably seeking competiveness right now, plus looking how CCJ goes in the 2nd ruck role (Goldy 62 ruck contests last week, CCJ 35 - 19-10 center bounce split), I'll be looking to chase Goldstein 80-120 fantasy points, looking at his av of 84ish without Xerri this year + huge ruck advantage + his ability to go huge over the years where he gets 50 minimum in hitouts alone.

Agree with you about Gawn

Have taken him for 4+ and 5+ @ 50/1 and 130/1 .

 

[GROTTO]

the panic im going through in that 5 min period is insane plus then trying to post it on here before the game starts bloody shaking from the adrenaline lmao

No multiple shots of coffee or Red Bull, will ever wake up a degenerate like that countdown timer that SB gives to you to get your bets in.

Its like a missile launch.

 

[fpm84]

Lewis 3+
JJK 2+
Impey 2+
Reeves AGS
Waterman AGS
Cripps AGS

@49 (boosted) SB

 

[HTPunter]

I Like Lukosius AGS @ $2.75 pb - No need for him in the backline with Markov, Bowes and Ellis all there, so he'll play half forward/wing I'd imagine. Essendon are super leaky so think he'll have some chances tomorrow.

2+ @ $14
3+ @ $67

For those who missed the $67 boat for 3, I figure $61 for most goals is worth jumping on (now into $15 for 3). Obviously the likes of Wright, Chol and Rankine are right up there to kick 3 too but I'd rather the 61 than 15.

If he was to share the most with 3 with say Chol and Wright, would he get paid out at approx $20??

 

[HTPunter]

Got my ticket to the Punting Boards:

Impey train
Reeves train (goals but also added fantasy points)
Snelling train
Lukiosus train

Also like Jordon to step up in the absence of Oliver
80+ fantasy $1.80
90+ $2.50
100 $4.25
110 $8
120 $14
130 $34

5 scores above 80 in the past 6 games, including a 124. Oliver hasn't missed a game in years so hard to know the impact, instead of anyone up stepping up the Dees might just go to water. Closest we have is Petracca v Freo when he played ill, Jordon got 91. Dees have a huge ruck advantage so I'll back their mids in.

 

[GROTTO]

For those who missed the $67 boat for 3, I figure $61 for most goals is worth jumping on (now into $15 for 3). Obviously the likes of Wright, Chol and Rankine are right up there to kick 3 too but I'd rather the 61 than 15.

If he was to share the most with 3 with say Chol and Wright, would he get paid out at approx $20??

TBH

I cant see Luko kicking more than a goal given his formline. For 67 game career, he has never kicked more than 2+

Punters who didnt get on or missed his odds are not missing out on anything.

 

[bulletride]

What are the chances Jai Culley spends a fair bit of time forward today? Named on a HFF and looking at their ins and outs they've had Petrucelle and Rioli go out and only Cripps come back in. WAFL stats don't look great but his forward ability was talked up when he was picked up in the midseason draft.


AGS $3 PB
2+ $15
3+ $67

 

[teamlenny]

TBH

I cant see Luko kicking more than a goal given his formline. For 67 game career, he has never kicked more than 2+

Punters who didnt get on or missed his odds are not missing out on anything.

he is also most likely playing wing/half back based on that team they have named.

 

[teamlenny]

What are the chances Jai Culley spends a fair bit of time forward today? Named on a HFF and looking at their ins and outs they've had Petrucelle and Rioli go out and only Cripps come back in. WAFL stats don't look great but his forward ability was talked up when he was picked up in the midseason draft.
View attachment 1448844

AGS $3 PB
2+ $15
3+ $67

in recent weeks both Petrucelle and Rioli have seen some midfield time, Culley some chance to get some of this but he is going to be behind Kelly, Shuey, Redden & O'Neill in the pecking order so most likely spends most his time at half forward

 

[HTPunter]

TBH

I cant see Luko kicking more than a goal given his formline. For 67 game career, he has never kicked more than 2+

Punters who didnt get on or missed his odds are not missing out on anything.

I'd tend to agree, but, it's against Essendon, a bottom 3 defence in the comp. Suns should have their chances.

he is also most likely playing wing/half back based on that team they have named.

I'd think wing/half forward.

Ballard, Collins, Graham
Lemmens, Ellis, Bowes, Markov

Are their defenders named.

Lukiosus not as much time at half back this year, wouldn't think he'd be pushed back now. They need his class need the 50 meter mark.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Essendon are using Caldwell as a tagger now, had Neale last week and did ok, might go to miller? Could be a go for the unders

 

[tangolikelama]

Feeling like an absolute ******* degenerate today

 

[GROTTO]

Feeling like an absolute ******* degenerate today

Its what we do best.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Feeling like an absolute ******* degenerate today

Are you living in a low cost of living country in order to work as little as possible, and buy lots of beer, drugs and *****?

Asking for a friend

 

[Its not the coach]

TBH

I cant see Luko kicking more than a goal given his formline. For 67 game career, he has never kicked more than 2+

Punters who didnt get on or missed his odds are not missing out on anything.

Played a fair bit of those games down back though, Top bet at the odds he got

 

[GROTTO]

Are you living in a low cost of living country in order to work as little as possible, and buy lots of beer, drugs and *****?

Asking for a friend

A degenerate only needs a laptop and UberEats to function.

Its our tools of the trade.

 

[GROTTO]

Played a fair bit of those games down back though, Top bet at the odds he got

His heat maps suggest that he has also played a fair bit inside 50m.

The odds are great and I do hope he gets 3+ today, with that said, his history is such that he has never kicked more than 2+ which is my concern.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Moore 3
Cripps 3

@ 38.50

Moore 4
Cripps 4

@ 235

SB

 

[X_box_X]

If anyone wants a smallish arb and to turnover some BF points:

Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

24

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

:
u93.5 AFL fantasy pts at $1.87 w Pointsbet
o93.5 AFL fantasy at $2.40 w Betfair

 

[GROTTO]

Moore 3
Cripps 3

@ 38.50

Moore 4
Cripps 4

@ 235

SB

Moore has a had a bit of quiet couple of weeks for the Hawks.