AFL 2022 AFL Round 18

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His heat maps suggest that he has also played a fair bit inside 50m.

The odds are great and I do hope he gets 3+ today, with that said, his history is such that he has never kicked more than 2+ which is my concern.
I have been suprised he hasn't taken his chances when playing up forward, Showed a bit around goal in the SANFL. They'd get me every time at those odds
 
Think I have found one that I like at Topsport. Mitch Lewis to score 0 goals at $22. Has been killing it - but I’ve just seen some heavy rain around the MCG and there could be showers throughout the game. He went goalless against the Giants in the wet and will get Tom Barrass who is no slouch. We saw him shutdown in the second half last week where he admitted Adelaide made some changes and kept him scoreless. I assume West Coast will look to mirror them. It could be confetti within the first 5mins but at the price - it’s worth a spec.
 
Think I have found one that I like at Topsport. Mitch Lewis to score 0 goals at $22. Has been killing it - but I’ve just seen some heavy rain around the MCG and there could be showers throughout the game. He went goalless against the Giants in the wet and will get Tom Barrass who is no slouch. We saw him shutdown in the second half last week where he admitted Adelaide made some changes and kept him scoreless. I assume West Coast will look to mirror them. It could be confetti within the first 5mins but at the price - it’s worth a spec.
Murder Train.

Its the complete opposite of what all us degenerates do. Its the Anti-Train.


murder-train-the-murder-train.gif
 

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Had small losses yesterday meaning prettt much even for the weekend. Got some strong spots from earlier in the week to roll with today also.

2.5u - Hurn under 21.5 disposals - $1.89 - Ladbrokes
Has gone under 6/8 games where he has shared the field with Witherden this season. Some potential wet weather around also meaning less opportunities to chip it around the defence.

2u - Petracca under 28.5 disposals - $1.95 - TopSport
With no Oliver it becomes very clear who the number one mid is. With everything on the line, it’d be silly for Port not to at least put some extra work into Petracca today and make things tough for him.

2.5u - Hind under 22.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Top end line for Hind. Has gone under in 7/14 games this season. When one of Redman or Ridley have missed he has gone under in 1/4 meaning that he has gone under in 6/10 games that have included a full strength backline where his ball use isn’t as highlighted. Full strength backline so the ball will need to be shared around.

3.5u - Casboult 2+ goals - $1.90 - PointsBet
1u - Casboult 3+ goals - $4 - PointsBet
0.5u - Casboult 4+ goals - $10 - PointsBet
Bit of a simple one, game under the roof at Marvel so expecting perfect conditions. Essendon are giving up the third most marks per game inside 50 and Casboult is taking the most marks per game for the Suns inside 50. Off the back of a goalless game so will be looking to make amends. Has kicked 2+ in 9/15, 3+ in 4/15, 4+ in 1/15.

3.5u - Caldwell over 21.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
1u - Caldwell 25+ disposals - $3.30 - TopSport
0.5u - Caldwell 30+ disposals - $8.75 - TopSport
Caldwell saw a big shift in CBAs last week going to a season high 97% and as a result racking up a season high 26 disposals. As the Dons got the W last week I’m expecting to see him get another strong run in the midfield. In games that Merrett or Parish (Essendon’s big 2) have missed Caldwell has cleared in 4/6. We see Parish out of the side again which should give him plenty of opportunity.


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Josh Morris named CHF in the update team sheet? Played defense last week but is $5 ags on PB. Is $2.50 elswhere
 
Think I have found one that I like at Topsport. Mitch Lewis to score 0 goals at $22. Has been killing it - but I’ve just seen some heavy rain around the MCG and there could be showers throughout the game. He went goalless against the Giants in the wet and will get Tom Barrass who is no slouch. We saw him shutdown in the second half last week where he admitted Adelaide made some changes and kept him scoreless. I assume West Coast will look to mirror them. It could be confetti within the first 5mins but at the price - it’s worth a spec.
Ive tailed Mitch Lewis 'Exactly 0 Goals' into Bayley Fritsch 'Exactly 0 Goals' @ $107.10
 
It seems like the Hawks aren't running with many forwards today. Connor Macdonald is named FF and is a genuine small forward. Has never scored more than 1 in a game (it's his first season) but I'm betting today might be the day.

AGS @ $1.97
2+ @ $6.25
3+ @ $26
Top Goal Scorer @ $75
 
Luke Foley AGS @ $4.5 pb - Played forward last week... looked pretty average tbh but he did kick a goal.
 

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Think I have found one that I like at Topsport. Mitch Lewis to score 0 goals at $22. Has been killing it - but I’ve just seen some heavy rain around the MCG and there could be showers throughout the game. He went goalless against the Giants in the wet and will get Tom Barrass who is no slouch. We saw him shutdown in the second half last week where he admitted Adelaide made some changes and kept him scoreless. I assume West Coast will look to mirror them. It could be confetti within the first 5mins but at the price - it’s worth a spec.

We survive a quarter 🤣
 
Liam Ryan actually wanna do something today
 

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