Prediction The Run Home

[Chrispiesssss]

The saints are probably the only team who could knock us out of the 8. However, The saints have a tough run home.
Freo - top 4 side.
Dogs - at marvel after a smashing against swans.
WCE - Optus stadium
Hawks - win.
Cats - at the cattery
Lions - probably looking for a top 2 spot
Swans - dangerous team probably looking to book in a finals spot

 

[Jafo]

I’m just hoping for a win and happy to take the 4 points if we do, everything else will take care of itself.

I’ll be happy with a win too. By any margin. No injuries as well.

 

[nahnah]

The key to AFL is to just win your next game

 

[Soaring Magpie]

The results are falling our way, we keep winning and our competition are not! At this rate we are looking like getting to September, hopefully too 6 and a home final beckons

 

[Monco Matt]

I see us in an Elimination Final against Carlton. Obviously anything can happen and who knows week to week. But, I think we will play them in the final round then again the following game. What a game that would be!!

 

[nahnah]

I see us in an Elimination Final against Carlton. Obviously anything can happen and who knows week to week. But, I think we will play them in the final round then again the following game. What a game that would be!!

Round 23 will be the Blues elimination final

 

[Football God]

Rebuilds going well.

 

[Go Woods]

Yep, elimination final would be a great achievement for this group coming from 17th.
Big trade period could see us challenging next year.

 

[BigVic]

elimination final would be good especially prediction of a bad season

 

[pieman123]

I think we will make it to the Semi’s, this year reminds me of 2008.

 

[legendstatus]

Ok first attempt at the AFL ladder predictor - we really been to nail 3 wins between now and end of season

Ive got us down for 2 only

View attachment 1444726


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[Soaring Magpie]

4 weeks out from September, we sit inside the top 4.can we stay there? I’d think more likely we go to 6-7 range.
Tough final month of the H&A presents.

 

[hellfire]

4 weeks out from September, we sit inside the top 4.can we stay there? I’d think more likely we go to 6-7 range.
Tough final month of the H&A presents.

There are no easy games now, but the better sides seem to bring out the best in us. We play to our opponents level every week, so we're up to our eyeballs in the running for a double chance. We could lose all 4 or we could win all 4, but I don't think this side has it in them to lose 3 or 4 on the trot. I think we'll go 2-2 and finish 5th or 6th.

 

[stormskye]

4 weeks out from September, we sit inside the top 4.can we stay there? I’d think more likely we go to 6-7 range.
Tough final month of the H&A presents.

On current form I can’t see us beating Melb, syd or Carlton. We are just scraping by against lower quality teams. That’s not to say we can’t turn it around but we can’t keep losing clearances and our height down back still concerns me. Port in Melb is winnable but still tough. What we’ve achieved is so far from anyones expectations just playing even a final is an excellent result.

 

[Soaring Magpie]

On current form I can’t see us beating Melb, syd or Carlton. We are just scraping by against lower quality teams. That’s not to say we can’t turn it around but we can’t keep losing clearances and our height down back still concerns me. Port in Melb is winnable but still tough. What we’ve achieved is so far from anyones expectations just playing even a final is an excellent result.

Agree with everything you say there, the season has been nothing short of sensational and to qualify for September is awesome.
Once there, anything is possible.

 

[nahnah]

If we get to a 16 game win streak we've won the flag.. already over half way there

 

[Pistol Night]

If we get to a 16 game win streak we've won the flag.. already over half way there

Carlton supporters “Worst 16 game winning streak ever”

 

[Prestigerrycomo]

All I want is the streak to go to 16

 

[Jim Levenstein]

On current form I can’t see us beating Melb, syd or Carlton. We are just scraping by against lower quality teams. That’s not to say we can’t turn it around but we can’t keep losing clearances and our height down back still concerns me. Port in Melb is winnable but still tough. What we’ve achieved is so far from anyones expectations just playing even a final is an excellent result.

Agreed, like most people I am astonished at the season to date. However If I was a player, I would want to capitalise on the hard work and luck and do some damage in the finals. Otherwise, it is a wasted opportunity. I am pretty confident in the way the coaching group have prepared the boys all year so I suspect the internal expectations have shifted.

 

[LuckyLee]

It’s possible for us to miss finals altogether if we lose all four remaining matches. Need one more win - hopefully we get it this week to ease all our nerves.


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[Horaceg]

Every game is winnable, two elite talents to come back in, JDG makes us better, Grundy makes us better both take the heat off some of the next level players to help/allow them to be better.

We are a chance, 15-1 is a chance, outside but we’re in it and we need to keep going. There’s upside in our game.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

was thinking about the current 'run'.
given we would have to have the worst % ever for a top 4 side at this stage of the year.....i was thinking about why it's been so close in all of our games.
We've been super defensively and very very hard to play against.
That's really what has kept us in games.
We really haven't put good games together as yet. Just patches.
But we score so heavily and quickly that those patches have been enough.

Its also been an interesting run when you dig a bit deeper into the opponents etc:

Freo = Super wet day in perth.
blues (7 day break) = 17 pts up and they kicked the last 2. Game was made to look closer than it was. also 5 more scoring shots.
hawks (7 day break) = blew them away early....then it poured and we looked gassed.
melb (8 day break) = Dry day. Blew them away.
GWS (14 day break) = biggest 11 point smashing i've ever seen (33 scoring shots to 17).
suns (6 day break) = Wet night on GC. close all night. Ground it out to what was at that stage 'the best contested team in the comp' (statistically).
North (7 days) = wet afternoon. looked lethargic and without energy (has since come to light we were in a heavy load phase).
crows (7 days) = poured with rain. Close game against what was at that stage "the best defensive side in the comp". record tackles (120).
Bombers (8 days) = lucky win against what was the 5th best side over the past 6 weeks. Much better than their ladder suggests.

Its easy to take the narrative that we are 'just beating low sides'.
But in reality, over the past 9 weeks 5 have been in rain & 3 were interstate.

I wonder how many other teams have had that over a 9 game period? Would be an interesting comparison

Reminds me a little of 2010 where i spent the whole year trying to work out if we are a good team or not....Teams struggled to score against us back then and this year (to date) its looked similar.
The fact they are close, regardless of whether we get over the line, suggests we are good defensively and give ourselves a chance.
At some stage we'll lose a close one.....that's a given.
But equally, at some point we'll also actually play well offensively....

Next 4 weeks will absolutely tell us where we sit as i can't work out whether top 4 is legit when i feel like it should be 7-8 based on how badly we keep playing!!

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

4 weeks out from September, we sit inside the top 4.can we stay there? I’d think more likely we go to 6-7 range.
Tough final month of the H&A presents.

The funny thing is, I'm always far less worried about matches against better sides because we tend to lift for those

We've been Melbourne's bogey side for some time, Sydney we traditionally do well against as we love travelling and Carlton? Well, these guys seem to love playing in the blockbusters.

My current prediction/expectation for the the final 4 games is that we should win 2 of them? We could lose/win all 4 of course, but I reckon we probably go 2/2 which I think keeps us Top 4 if other results can help us out

 

[Pie thon]

After the Queens birthday game, i put us down as a win in every game except the Sydney game into the Ladder predictor. Gave a win to the favourites for all other games. At that stage we were going to finish 6th at the end of the season.
Upsets against Richmond pushed us into 5th a few weeks ago, and the Brisbane v Bombers and Melbourne v Dogs upsets now opened up 4th spot.
We can lose one game and have a 95% to finish top 4
Because of the heavy congestion between 2nd and 7th, we need several upsets to make top 4 with 2 losses. In Addition the 2 loses cant be against Melb & Sydney, they need to be wins and the 2 losses be against Port & Carlton as a combination

 

[rdangelo]

TheAge today has us to lose our last 3.

Perfect, underdog status is what we want!