Phantom Draft BigFooty Crowdsourced AFL 2022 Draft Rankings

Bob Neil

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2011
2,888
6,118
At a table with old friends
AFL Club
Adelaide
Hi BigFooty Draft Afficionados!

There's obviously plenty of great threads by BF draft experts showing their rankings, preferences and assessments on many of the prospective players who are eligible for the 2022 National Draft which are an awesome resource for the rest of us to dive into and comment on.

I thought it might be a nice addition to the mix to create a simple way for BF fans to also participate in and contribute to a form of 'crowdsourced player power ranking' so I've created a simple Wikisurvey that does just that.

If you go to this link Who is the better prospect for the 2022 AFL National Draft? you'll see a page (there's an image below to show what I mean) which asks you the question "Who is the better prospect for the 2022 AFL National Draft?" and then it serves up two random players from a pre-populated list of around 40 players**. You simply select the player that you think is the better prospect; that result is logged and you can then exit or you can do the exercise again with two more random players. It's not assessing club needs or like-for-like (e.g. KPF) comparisons but a simple 'power ranking' methodology as generated by the BigFooty crowd.

It literally takes seconds and with a starting list of 40 players there's more than 1500 combinations of player-pairs that you can theoretically rank so you can play around for as little or as long as you like.

Obviously as with any 'wisdom of the crowds' type thing the output rankings are only as good as the volume and quality of the inputs so hopefully we can get a decent level of responses from all of BF draft watchers with opinions to share. You can see the results as they emerge here and if we do get a meaningful amount of votes then I'll share it back here periodically as well.

Thanks and happy ranking! [Reminder go here to cast your votes.]

**I'll drop the starting list of players in a subsequent post so you can see who's there but remember you can't control which pair of players you get to vote on. If there's a notable player that I've missed please let me know and I'll add them to the list - you can also submit suggestions on the survey site.

Screen Shot 2022-07-26 at 9.28.29 am.png
 

Bob Neil

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2011
2,888
6,118
At a table with old friends
AFL Club
Adelaide
The starting list of players that I've included in the ranking survey was culled from a sweep of various of the existing phantom draft threads and other resources to get what appeared to be the 'main' prospects at this early stage (which will obviously evolve over time). The list is below and again if you think there's players I've overlooked then post below and I'll look to include them in the survey:
Aaron Cadman (GWV REBELS)
Adam D'Aloia (WOODVILLE-WEST TORRENS EAGLES)
Alwyn Davey (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Anthony Munkara (WEST ADELAIDE)
Bailey Humphrey (GIPPSLAND POWER)
Blake Drury (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Brandon Leary (TASMANIA DEVILS)
Brayden George (MURRAY BUSHRANGERS)
Callum Verrell (EASTERN RANGES)
Cameron Mackenzie (SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS)
Darcy Jones (SWAN DISTRICTS)
Elijah Hewett (SWAN DISTRICTS)
Elijah Tsatas (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
George Wardlaw (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Harry Barnett (WEST ADELAIDE)
Harry Lemmey (WEST ADELAIDE)
Harry Sheezel (SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS)
Henry Hustwaite (DANDENONG STINGRAYS)
Isaac Keeler (NORTH ADELAIDE)
Jackson Broadbent (PEEL THUNDER)
Jacob Konstanty (GIPPSLAND POWER)
Jakob Ryan (GLENELG)
Jaspa Fletcher (LIONS / SHERWOOD)
Jed Hagan (EAST FREMANTLE)
Jedd Busslinger (EAST PERTH)
Jhye Clark (GEELONG FALCONS)
Josh Weddle (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Kobe Ryan (WEST ADELAIDE)
Lachlan Cowan (TASMANIA DEVILS)
Lewis Hayes (EASTERN RANGES)
Luke Teal (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Mattaes Phillipou (WOODVILLE-WEST TORRENS EAGLES)
Matthew Jefferson (OAKLEIGH CHARGERS)
Mitch Szybkowski (DANDENONG STINGRAYS)
Nick Sadler (STURT)
Oliver Hollands (MURRAY BUSHRANGERS)
Olivier Northam (GEELONG FALCONS)
Olli Hotton (SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS)
Reuben Ginbey (EAST PERTH)
Rye Penny (CALDER CANNONS)
Tom McCullum (TASMANIA DEVILS)
Tom Scully (WEST ADELAIDE)
Will Ashcroft (SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS)
 

Bob Neil

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2011
2,888
6,118
At a table with old friends
AFL Club
Adelaide
More than 250 votes cast in the first ten minutes of the BigFooty Crowdsourced AFL 2022 Draft Rankings - awesome!

Here's a snapshot of the initial results...

About the Scoring
The score of a player (the survey calls them 'ideas') is the estimated chance that it will win (i.e. be chosen as the better prospect) against a randomly chosen player. For example, a score of 100 means the player is predicted to win every time and a score of 0 means the player is predicted to lose every time.
Screen Shot 2022-07-26 at 10.04.33 am.png
 

Bob Neil

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2011
2,888
6,118
At a table with old friends
AFL Club
Adelaide
This is very fun, could be the single best draft innovation from here ever
Thanks PMBangers - I appreciate the kind sentiments. What you (and others) bring to this board is an amazing and generous resource that you share freely which I know many value highly so thank you.

Re the crowdsourcing approach I do find it really interesting and hopefully a useful counterpoint to the individual expert approach...what got me started was reading about how the Sacramento Kings took a 'crowdsourcing' approach to help them work out what to do with their top draft pick (#8 IIRC) in the 2014 draft. I really do think the AFL clubs with their massive membership bases plus media audiences are sitting on an untapped asset when it comes to leveraging the hive mind.

Look forward to seeing how this develops...oh and 6000 votes now and Harry Sheezel sitting at the top of the crowdsourced rankings. This means every player has been compared/ranked around 280 times (plus or minus a bit) to come up with those rankings.

Screen Shot 2022-07-26 at 1.27.18 pm.png
 

Futbolista

Club Legend
May 15, 2012
1,140
1,456
AFL Club
GWS
And they also have the best players in the draft overall
I'm sure that is the case.

I'm also sure that I've never known Vics to be open minded whether it comes to the old VFL, cricket commentary, or even their opinion of their "okayish somewhat exciting" southern capital.

Footy life doesn't revolve around Vic for me but each to their own.
 

Bob Neil

Club Legend
Sep 20, 2011
2,888
6,118
At a table with old friends
AFL Club
Adelaide
Based on crowd suggestions I've added five new players to the list (see below) making it now a total of 49 players. Those players are not disadvantaged in the rankings as they start with a midpoint ranking of 50 (remember that's a probability of how likely they are to be chosen in any random pair-match with another player) and then are adjusted as they appear in live ranking/voting. So even though they won't have been voted on as many times they should still - after some initial volatility - find their natural level within the rankings.

Kane Bevan [WEST PERTH]
Billy Dowling [NORTH ADELAIDE]
Charlie Clarke [SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS]
Jaxon Binns [DANDENONG STINGRAYS]
Harry Rowston [GIANTS ACADEMY]
 

PocketRocket08

Senior List
Apr 26, 2022
253
290
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Based on crowd suggestions I've added five new players to the list (see below) making it now a total of 49 players. Those players are not disadvantaged in the rankings as they start with a midpoint ranking of 50 (remember that's a probability of how likely they are to be chosen in any random pair-match with another player) and then are adjusted as they appear in live ranking/voting. So even though they won't have been voted on as many times they should still - after some initial volatility - find their natural level within the rankings.

Kane Bevan [WEST PERTH]
Billy Dowling [NORTH ADELAIDE]
Charlie Clarke [SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS]
Jaxon Binns [DANDENONG STINGRAYS]
Harry Rowston [GIANTS ACADEMY]
can we vote again with these new players added? For some reason i'm unable too.
 

Futbolista

Club Legend
May 15, 2012
1,140
1,456
AFL Club
GWS
I don't think people are falling for my rivalry hyperbole.

It was worth a crack but footy and life has become very gentile.

Bring back Ron Boucher, Mal Brown and Basil Campbell.

It's only a matter of time until India realises that there is a sporting poll and suddenly Virat Kohli wins by 1.9 million votes...even in footy.
 
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