Is the top 4 set?

[PieLebo87]

Collingwood's last 6 wins have been against losing teams (teams with more losses than wins). And by a grand total of 38 points.

So when suitable, we’re talking the other team’s overall win/loss #s for the year and when suitable we’re talking Collingwood’s ‘recent form’? You didn’t actually address any of what I said about the other team’s (Port, Dons, Crows) recent form, only Collingwood’s. Based on your logic, teams that are 14-5 by Round 20 are well and truly in Premiership contention.

This doesn't impress me in terms of Collingwood's finals prospects.

My own team is 7-2 against losing teams (and it'd be 8-1 if we didn't sell games to Cairns). And most of those 7 wins have been comfortable. Not going down to the final seconds. Collingwood has had the better of some key moments. They've lifted in final quarters and won close games. But finals intensity is at another level again.

With all due respect, how your side has gone against those same sides is irrelevant to me. I’m more concerned with how other top 4 sides went against them recently and compared that to how Collingwood went. We’ve won against sides that have either beaten or gone close against other top 4 contenders.

Teams with a percentage of 106 (9th best in the comp) don't win many finals.

If they make a prelim final I'll eat my words but I can't see it.

A team’s percentage in the H&A means diddly squat in September. Teams with 150% don’t get any extra incentives in finals vs teams with 106%.

 

[OniAu]

No need to get your knickers in a knot. I’d probably rather play Geelong than Collingwood to be honest. Their finals record isn’t really the best and peaking now isn’t a great scenario, but they are a fair bit more concerning than last year.

You definitely have a harder 3 games than your last 3, that’s undisputed.

2 of the last 3 we have beaten , we start even chance in each of these last games

Feel like Swans are the over rated team of the comp by a mile - Theyve lost to the bombers and port , teams we have beaten or "scraped over the line against" but we are more vulnerable come september? Spare me

 

[dean33]

Good response, your best win in the last decade, pity it didn’t result in silverware.

Think we responded well from that loss winning the next 2 flags, coincidentally the same number of flags as your mob has won in the last 60 years

 

[PerthBoy86]

2 of the last 3 we have beaten , we start even chance in each of these last games

Feel like Swans are the over rated team of the comp by a mile - Theyve lost to the bombers and port , teams we have beaten or "scraped over the line against" but we are more vulnerable come september? Spare me

Well you did lose to us when we were even more dogshite...Sydney are inconsistent but every team this year bar Geelong has been. I guess Collingwood have been consistent in the last 10 games, consistently just winning. As a neutral Sydney vs Collingwood will definitely be very telling.

 

[OniAu]

Well you did lose to us when we were even more dogshite...Sydney are inconsistent but every team this year bar Geelong has been. I guess Collingwood have been consistent in the last 10 games, consistently just winning. As a neutral Sydney vs Collingwood will definitely be very telling.

Not discounting the lost to weagles.

Swans losses have come in the last 4 to 5 rounds

 

[OniAu]

Good response, your best win in the last decade, pity it didn’t result in silverware.

Think we responded well from that loss winning the next 2 flags

Just showing how ignorant your post was

 

[PieLebo87]

Good response, your best win in the last decade, pity it didn’t result in silverware.

Think we responded well from that loss winning the next 2 flags

Don’t get so sensitive

He was responding to your claim that Collingwood hasn’t proven anything in September. They’ve made a GF and Prelims in recent seasons, so they must know how to win when needed.

Having a Norm Smith medalist still running around makes a mockery of your post.

 

[Fadge]

Melbourne have already proven they can perform in September, the pies haven’t. Hence why people doubt the credibility of teams like the pies, lions and blues. Until you actually prove you can get it done come September than people will continue to doubt. Especially when your wins against mid to bottom teams of late have been less than convincing.

Collingwood's recent finals record:
2020 Elimination Final (Finished 8th and played 5th placed West Coast) - Won by 1 point in Perth
2020 Semi Final - Belted by eventual Runners-Up Geelong
2019 Qualifying Final (Finished 4th and played top placed Geelong) - Won by 10 points
2019 Preliminary Final - Lost by 4 points in a slogfest against GWS
2018 Qualifying Final - (Finished 3rd and played 2nd placed West Coast) - lost by 16 points in a belter in Perth
2018 Semi-Final - Beat GWS by 10 points
2018 Preliminary Final - Flogged the Richmond juggernaut by 39 points easing down
2018 Grand Final - Lost by 5 points against West Coast

Pies don't perform too bad in Finals, giving a great account of ourselves in 7 of the last 8 finals we have played.

 

[PieLebo87]

Well you did lose to us when we were even more dogshite...Sydney are inconsistent but every team this year bar Geelong has been. I guess Collingwood have been consistent in the last 10 games, consistently just winning. As a neutral Sydney vs Collingwood will definitely be very telling.

Not having a go at your personally PerthBoy86 but we get smashed for not beating anyone decent recently and the wins against the Dees and Freo was too far long ago to mention, yet our loss to WCE which was in R4 gets brought up?

 

[OniAu]

Not having a go at your personally PerthBoy86 but we get smashed for not beating anyone decent recently and the wins against the Dees and Freo was too far long ago to mention, yet our loss to WCE which was in R4 gets brought up?

Vicious circle hey

Our 10 streak is against lower teams - despite Melbourne , Blues and Dockers being in that 10 streak. Two of them not included in the two goals or less

Our older players are carrying & have no younger talent , which is hardly true when we have a 19 year old 32 goal forward. 1st year HBF having numerous games where he influences the result

No other top 8 teams losses to lower teams is credited because they are "peaking" for finals

Shows how many nuff nuffs follow the media narrative about the pies.

 

[StillAtLarge]

If the dockers beat the dogs I reckon they'll get there

 

[dean33]

Don’t get so sensitive

He was responding to your claim that Collingwood hasn’t proven anything in September. They’ve made a GF and Prelims in recent seasons, so they must know how to win when needed.

Having a Norm Smith medalist still running around makes a mockery of your post.

Prelim was 2019? Grand final 2018? How far do you want to go back? Your last finals result was a humiliating loss to the cats in 2020. Norm smith medalist was from 2010? Should we start finding links to your 1990 flag team to prove you have what it takes as well?

Pies fans should just be happy with their season instead of trying to prove to everyone how good they are. Don’t worry that the football world doesn’t rate you.

 

[dean33]

Collingwood's recent finals record:
2020 Elimination Final (Finished 8th and played 5th placed West Coast) - Won by 1 point in Perth
2020 Semi Final - Belted by eventual Runners-Up Geelong
2019 Qualifying Final (Finished 4th and played top placed Geelong) - Won by 10 points
2019 Preliminary Final - Lost by 4 points in a slogfest against GWS
2018 Qualifying Final - (Finished 3rd and played 2nd placed West Coast) - lost by 16 points in a belter in Perth
2018 Semi-Final - Beat GWS by 10 points
2018 Preliminary Final - Flogged the Richmond juggernaut by 39 points easing down
2018 Grand Final - Lost by 5 points against West Coast

Pies don't perform too bad in Finals, giving a great account of ourselves in 7 of the last 8 finals we have played.

By that rationale if the tigers make the 8 we are a shoe in for the flag having won 10 of our last 12 finals.

 

[PJays]

There are five teams who have finished top 4 with a percentage of less than 110%, and two of these teams have won the premiership.

So I'm not sure where you have pulled the above statistic from.

Firstly, Collingwood won't finish top 4.

Secondly, that's not true. I just had a quick flick through the history books and found plenty of teams who finished top 4 with a % of less than 110% and failed to win the flag. Geelong 68, South Melbourne 70, Essendon 73, Collingwood 74, Geelong 76, Collingwood 84 (I haven't gone through pre 1965 or post 85, but that's 6 I found within 20 years).

Is that stat from AFL era only (where top 4 get a double chance)?

Regardless, it's a tiny sample size.

The better test would be checking how teams with a % of 110 or less go in finals against teams with better home and away percentage. Because, it's likely every team Collingwood plays in the finals will have a better home and away percentage.

 

[PieLebo87]

Prelim was 2019? Grand final 2018? How far do you want to go back? Your last finals result was a humiliating loss to the cats in 2020. Norm smith medalist was from 2010? Should we start finding links to your 1990 flag team to prove you have what it takes as well?

Pies fans should just be happy with their season instead of trying to prove to everyone how good they are. Don’t worry that the football world doesn’t rate you.

You’re the one who’s laid claim to us not having proven anything in September and we’re giving you examples proving you’re wrong from recent years. Stop being a sook just because you’ve been proven wrong. We all understand you hate the Pies. Doesn’t mean you can get away with talking s**t though.

Pies fans are extremely happy with our season. We ended up contending for a top 4 position, we’ve won 10 in a row, we’ve blooded some good young players - it’s been a tremendously successful season for us either way. Doesn’t mean we won’t defend our team when there are clowns like you taking stupid pot shots all the time though. You’re the one who should give it a rest - we understand it burns you to see us up and about.

 

[SuperSub17]

Collingwood's last 6 wins have been against losing teams (teams with more losses than wins). And by a grand total of 38 points.

This doesn't impress me in terms of Collingwood's finals prospects.

My own team is 7-2 against losing teams (and it'd be 8-1 if we didn't sell games to Cairns). And most of those 7 wins have been comfortable. Not going down to the final seconds.

This is a bit selective. Gold Coast are a losing team (9-10) BECAUSE they lost to Collingwood. Only one other team has managed to travel and beat them this season, and they are currently the flag favourites.

I’m guessing we can also write off Brisbane and Sydney (as they actually lost to a losing team in Essendon), as well as Geelong for only just beating a losing team in Port.

 

[craffles]

The best part about the Collingwood false dawn is the fans expectation they will do some damage in September. We should have beaten them and we have been rubbish for 90% of the year, they lost to west coast and they have been scraping over the line in so many games which if you were a serious contender you'd be smashing sides.

It's been a great year for Collingwood, lots of games into high talent kids, lots of wins and a likely finals appearance but they just aren't in the top 6 sides in the comp, no matter what a win loss record says.

 

[OniAu]

The best part about the Collingwood false dawn is the fans expectation they will do some damage in September. We should have beaten them and we have been rubbish for 90% of the year, they lost to west coast and they have been scraping over the line in so many games which if you were a serious contender you'd be smashing sides.

It's been a great year for Collingwood, lots of games into high talent kids, lots of wins and a likely finals appearance but they just aren't in the top 6 sides in the comp, no matter what a win loss record says.

So are the results with Melbourne and Freo just flashes in the pan?

 

[PJays]

This is a bit selective. Gold Coast are a losing team (9-10) BECAUSE they lost to Collingwood. Only one other team has managed to travel and beat them this season, and they are currently the flag favourites.

St Kilda beat them easily up there. We aren't flag favourites...

Also Melbourne isn't favourites just FYI (although I think they should be)

 

[SuperSub17]

St Kilda beat them easily up there. We aren't flag favourites...

Also Melbourne isn't favourites just FYI (although I think they should be)

Um, no, you beat them at Marvel in round 5. What are you on about?

Apologies, Melbourne were briefly favourites at one point over the weekend. Not sure it changes my point though…

 

[Fadge]

Firstly, Collingwood won't finish top 4.

I love how people state their predictions as fact. I thought you were better than that.

Firstly, Collingwood won't finish top 4.

Secondly, that's not true. I just had a quick flick through the history books and found plenty of teams who finished top 4 with a % of less than 110% and failed to win the flag. Geelong 68, South Melbourne 70, Essendon 73, Collingwood 74, Geelong 76, Collingwood 84 (I haven't gone through pre 1965 or post 85, but that's 6 I found within 20 years).

Is that stat from AFL era only (where top 4 get a double chance)?

Regardless, it's a tiny sample size.

The better test would be checking how teams with a % of 110 or less go in finals against teams with better home and away percentage. Because, it's likely every team Collingwood plays in the finals will have a better home and away percentage.

Sorry, I should have qualified my statement - it is since 2000, under the current finals system.

It may be a small sample size, but it's all we have. And it does indicate that percentage means diddly squat come finals time.

 

[Wojcinski]

Dees…look amazing.
Freo…wowsers. can’t see them falling out.
Bris… stars everywhere.
Blues…young guns and recruits shining.

Personally I can’t see a change from here.

Same

 

[dean33]

You’re the one who’s laid claim to us not having proven anything in September and we’re giving you examples proving you’re wrong from recent years. Stop being a sook just because you’ve been proven wrong. We all understand you hate the Pies. Doesn’t mean you can get away with talking s**t though.

Pies fans are extremely happy with our season. We ended up contending for a top 4 position, we’ve won 10 in a row, we’ve blooded some good young players - it’s been a tremendously successful season for us either way. Doesn’t mean we won’t defend our team when there are clowns like you taking stupid pot shots all the time though. You’re the one who should give it a rest - we understand it burns you to see us up and about.

Don’t get so defensive just because no one outside of Collingwood rates you.

 

[Fadge]

Don’t get so defensive just because no one outside of Collingwood rates you.

I'm sure I heard Nick Riewoldt say the Pies could win the flag two or three weeks ago, and that's just one example.

 

[PJays]

So when suitable, we’re talking the other team’s overall win/loss #s for the year and when suitable we’re talking Collingwood’s ‘recent form’? You didn’t actually address any of what I said about the other team’s (Port, Dons, Crows) recent form, only Collingwood’s.

That's cos it was all pretty mundane stuff and not exactly persuasive points

Adelaide is a very average team this year. The week before AND the week after Collingwood played them, Adelaide lost by over 5 goals (and one of those was against another very average team in Hawthorn).

You think it makes Collingwood's 5 point win a fortnight ago, a little more impressive just cos Adelaide defeated a beat up Carlton on the weekend? Hardly!

How many teams have North seriously challenged this year? 3 or 4. And one of them was West Coast missing half their best 22. Every other game North has gotten smashed. But Collingwood had to come from behind and win a thriller? Is this supposed to be impressive?

Collingwood beat GWS by 11 6 weeks ago. GWS who has barely been competitive since then. Lost their last 4 games by 36 or more.

You seriously expect anyone to be impressed by Collingwood scraping over the line against bad teams?

Take your black and white glasses off!

Based on your logic, teams that are 14-5 by Round 20 are well and truly in Premiership contention.

What logic of mine is that?

A team’s percentage in the H&A means diddly squat in September. Teams with 150% don’t get any extra incentives in finals vs teams with 106%.

Go look up the results when teams with a percentage of 110% or less play in finals against teams with a percentage of over 125, eg like Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney.

Report back to this thread with the results.

And then tell me again that I should rate Collingwood's finals chances.