Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[Pure_Ownage]

I reckon freo will get 4th and one of melb (depending on if they beat bris) or coll will drop to 5th.

That said yes i would be happy against the pies they are a hardworking team but i think we are better than them. From there its a great run to a GF (similar to 2011 when we got a weakish opponent in west coast in the PF).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The big domino is Pies vs Sydney this week...what do we reckon?

Coll will be competitive but sydney for me..have more firepower.

 

[JohnZ]

The big domino is Pies vs Sydney this week...what do we reckon?

Sydney should win, but Pies keep on keeping on so it's a massive 50/50. Pies winning is good for us now, pushes Melbourne into an away final.

 

[catstragic]

Have no editorial control over that at all?

I doubt it. They just have an ad slot that they make available to third parties- its totally automated. We all probably see a different ad- im looking at one for trading stocks, somebody else may see an ad for auto insurance. Itll depends on what the algo thinks your interested in.

 

[goyoucatters]

We get no advantage if we cop Pies or Dees in week 1.

It's actually worse than that, though. We actually incur a significant disadvantage by having to play our 'home game' at the home ground of our opponent. At a time that is generally wholly unsuitable to vast swathes of our supporter base.

I get the "anywhere, anytime' argument, of course. And that the GF is played there, anyway. But it is absolutely mad to think that we are the only team that routinely plays our home finals at the away team's home ground, and the whole comp appears to think that makes perfect sense.

If the situation were reversed with any of the clubs that benefit from this arrangement, the moaning would be heard on Mars.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

The only scenario we should be interested in is where do we play week 1 of the finals and aginst who? Swans, Brisbane or Fremantle at the MCG? We get no advantage if we cop Pies or Dees in week 1.

I honestly couldn’t care less where we play finals (well as long as it’s in vic)
Previous years I cared.

This year I want to play all finals at the G and I don’t care who it’s against.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's actually worse than that, though. We actually incur a significant disadvantage by having to play our 'home game' at the home ground of our opponent. At a time that is generally wholly unsuitable to vast swathes of our supporter base.

I get the "anywhere, anytime' argument, of course. And that the GF is played there, anyway. But it is absolutely mad to think that we are the only team that routinely plays our home finals at the away team's home ground, and the whole comp appears to think that makes perfect sense.

If the situation were reversed with any of the clubs that benefit from this arrangement, the moaning would be heard on Mars.

2016 QF, 2017 QF and 2019 QF have been the recent cases where we were "home" team to an MCG tenant and failed the challenge.

2007 PF, 2009 PF and 2011 QF we were posed with the same challenge but met it each time. I guess you can include the 2008 GF. I believe 2011 we were still the "away" team. Difference being, our class advantage was high enough to overcome the handicap.

Interstate teams have the same disadvantage grand final day (it's even worse actually as they play at the ground so rarely - and explains the poor record) but at least can have real home ground advantage other finals.

Let's just say any Geelong premiership is very well earned indeed. MCG tenants should be winning them a comfortable amount more than anyone else. Two of the modern "dynasties" (Hawthorn and Richmond) utilised this nicely for 5 of the 6 flags. Covid flag the one that got everyone to truly eulogise over the Tigers.

 

[you pick one]

Ladder Predictions​

Actual Ladder

�

Pos		Club		P	PTS	%	W	L	D	Form	Fav
												Your Ladder Predictions​ Actual Ladder​ �������� Pos​ ​ Club​ ​ P​ PTS​ %​ W​ L​ D​ Form​ Fav​ 1​ ​ GEEL​ 22​ 72​ 135.8​ 18​ 4​ 0​ W W W​ $6 ​ 2​ ​ SYD​ 22​ 64​ 127.2​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W W W​ $18 ​ 3​ ​ BL​ 22​ 64​ 124.2​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W W W​ $8 ​ 4​ ​ COLL​ 22​ 64​ 105.7​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W L W​ $17 ​ 5​ ​ FRE​ 22​ 62​ 116.3​ 15​ 6​ 1​ W W W​ $9 ​ 6​ ​ MELB​ 22​ 60​ 125.5​ 15​ 7​ 0​ L W L​ $2.75 ​ 7​ ​ RICH​ 22​ 54​ 116.6​ 13​ 8​ 1​ W W W​ $10 ​ 8​ ​ WB​ 22​ 48​ 109.3​ 12​ 10​ 0​ L W W​

 

[goyoucatters]

2016 QF, 2017 QF and 2019 QF have been the recent cases where we were "home" team to an MCG tenant and failed the challenge.

2007 PF, 2009 PF and 2011 QF we were posed with the same challenge but met it each time. I guess you can include the 2008 GF. I believe 2011 we were still the "away" team. Difference being, our class advantage was high enough to overcome the handicap.

Interstate teams have the same disadvantage grand final day (it's even worse actually as they play at the ground so rarely - and explains the poor record) but at least can have real home ground advantage other finals.

Let's just say any Geelong premiership is very well earned indeed. MCG tenants should be winning them a comfortable amount more than anyone else. Two of the modern "dynasties" (Hawthorn and Richmond) utilised this nicely for 5 of the 6 flags. Covid flag the one that got everyone to truly eulogise over the Tigers.

That's the point right there. I entirely accept that we're no worse off than many other clubs when it comes to the GF. But we are clearly the only club that routinely doesn't get to play its home finals at the ground of its choice.

Although I guess that's nothing more than the fair and just penalty for having the temerity to play all of nine games every H&A season at the #cheatground.

 

[Mr Meow]

I honestly couldn’t care less where we play finals (well as long as it’s in vic)
Previous years I cared.

This year I want to play all finals at the G and I don’t care who it’s against.

There is an advantage compared to interstate sides in that we get good practice at the venue, and our flags by necessity will involve confidence boosting finals beforehand. So we are less likely to make grand finals but probably more likely to win them once we do get in (I know, the late 80s and early 90s argue otherwise). GWS, Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast (admittedly they redeemed themselves in 2018) have put in some shocking GF performances over the past decade. Port not too long before that.

 

[Mr Meow]

That's the point right there. I entirely accept that we're no worse off than many other clubs when it comes to the GF. But we are clearly the only club that routinely doesn't get to play its home finals at the ground of its choice.

Although I guess that's nothing more than the fair and just penalty for having the temerity to play all of nine games every H&A season at the #cheatground.

People will point to sample size of one Geelong final, one loss to argue it makes no difference. There's no doubting Geelong would have made an extra grand final or 2 with real home finals but maybe our reward would have been extra Richmond and Hawthorn grand final losses at the G.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I honestly couldn’t care less where we play finals (well as long as it’s in vic)
Previous years I cared.

This year I want to play all finals at the G and I don’t care who it’s against.

Although I agree, I do take issue when the AFL will have us playing an MCG tenant for a home game on a Thursday or Friday night, ensuring it's as tough as possible for most Cats fans to attend.

 

[Mr Meow]

Although I agree, I do take issue when the AFL will have us playing an MCG tenant for a home game on a Thursday or Friday night, ensuring it's as tough as possible for most Cats fans to attend.

This part is the real kicker and I don't even live in Australia anymore - it's just really unfair. The "home" part should at least allow as many Cats fans to comfortably make it there and back. Should be Saturday afternoon or evenings.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

It's pretty daft that resting 13 of your best 22 to get ready for finals (or for any reason) is frowned upon or looked at badly...

Surely lists are the size they are to be used in any way the club and coaches see best. It's kind of a quirk of AFL where using your full list is seen as slightly dishonest, not taking it seriously, exploiting a loophole, whatever.

It shouldn't be an issue, really. You have 44 (I think it's still 44, anyway) players, and if you want to use a bunch from the lower reaches of your list pre-finals - isn't that what they're there for?

Routine in other competitions around the world to rotate your squad to maximise the potential / season.

Not saying either of you are necessarily arguing against doing so, but just noticed these comments and thought I'd add my piece.

Yeah, I do agree with all of that. Unfortuantely the AFL have however taken a dim view of it and we now have the 'pre-finals bye' as a result of what occurred.

So I'm still going to hate Ross Lyon even though he had every right to do what he did

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Yeah, I think it's likely we play the Pies week one. I keep getting the Pies every time I do the predictor.

I actually think Lions will make top 4 at the expense of Melbourne, though.

I'm hoping for Brisbane or Freo - but I think it will be the Pies and I'm okay with that.

But there are still lots of different outcomes depending on results over the next couple of weeks which is exciting.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

It's actually worse than that, though. We actually incur a significant disadvantage by having to play our 'home game' at the home ground of our opponent. At a time that is generally wholly unsuitable to vast swathes of our supporter base.

I get the "anywhere, anytime' argument, of course. And that the GF is played there, anyway. But it is absolutely mad to think that we are the only team that routinely plays our home finals at the away team's home ground, and the whole comp appears to think that makes perfect sense.

If the situation were reversed with any of the clubs that benefit from this arrangement, the moaning would be heard on Mars.

The AFL must just love the prospect of Collingwood and Richmond playing finals at the MCG.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

2016 QF, 2017 QF and 2019 QF have been the recent cases where we were "home" team to an MCG tenant and failed the challenge.

2007 PF, 2009 PF and 2011 QF we were posed with the same challenge but met it each time. I guess you can include the 2008 GF. I believe 2011 we were still the "away" team. Difference being, our class advantage was high enough to overcome the handicap.

Interstate teams have the same disadvantage grand final day (it's even worse actually as they play at the ground so rarely - and explains the poor record) but at least can have real home ground advantage other finals.

Let's just say any Geelong premiership is very well earned indeed. MCG tenants should be winning them a comfortable amount more than anyone else. Two of the modern "dynasties" (Hawthorn and Richmond) utilised this nicely for 5 of the 6 flags. Covid flag the one that got everyone to truly eulogise over the Tigers.

Good point. 2016 QF though we did beat the Hawks. From memory that was our mate Isaac Smith helping us advance to the prelim!

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Ladder Predictions​

Actual Ladder

�

Pos		Club		P	PTS	%	W	L	D	Form	Fav
												Your Ladder Predictions​ Actual Ladder​ �������� Pos​ ​ Club​ ​ P​ PTS​ %​ W​ L​ D​ Form​ Fav​ 1​ ​ GEEL​ 22​ 72​ 135.8​ 18​ 4​ 0​ W W W​ $6 ​ 2​ ​ SYD​ 22​ 64​ 127.2​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W W W​ $18 ​ 3​ ​ BL​ 22​ 64​ 124.2​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W W W​ $8 ​ 4​ ​ COLL​ 22​ 64​ 105.7​ 16​ 6​ 0​ W L W​ $17 ​ 5​ ​ FRE​ 22​ 62​ 116.3​ 15​ 6​ 1​ W W W​ $9 ​ 6​ ​ MELB​ 22​ 60​ 125.5​ 15​ 7​ 0​ L W L​ $2.75 ​ 7​ ​ RICH​ 22​ 54​ 116.6​ 13​ 8​ 1​ W W W​ $10 ​ 8​ ​ WB​ 22​ 48​ 109.3​ 12​ 10​ 0​ L W W​

Mine is basically this too. How good would a Dees v Tigers EF be? One of them knocked out. Dees would be nervous playing the Tigers in that.

 

[JackFlash]

I honestly couldn’t care less where we play finals (well as long as it’s in vic)
Previous years I cared.

This year I want to play all finals at the G and I don’t care who it’s against.

Agreed, Geelong set out to qualify for the finals, then the top four and as they went along top two was secured. Now that they have got that, it would be an advantage to draw one of the interstate teams in the first final at the MCG. Particularly when you have Melbourne and Collingwood lurking about. That Brisbane v Melbourne final game could determine it all, but Freo have two very winnable games also.

 

[Jemaine]

Anywhere anytime is absolute nonsense. If people don't think that Richmond announced the Dusty signed contract the afternoon of our "home" QF at their ground on a Friday night in a totally planned move to send the ferals even more rabid, then I don't know what to say.

Home support makes a huge difference, not just the ground itself.

A Saturday afternoon final at the MCG is the best result for us as all those from down the highway can attend, followed by Saturday night. I live three metro stops past Southern Cross and it still takes me until after 11pm to get home if I catch the train, which is too late for kids as it is. Can't imagine having to get back to Geelong, must get home around 1am which is such a turn off for those wanting to attend.

If we play an interstate team we won't have to worry about Thursday or Friday night.

But if we're drawn against the Pies you can bet your bottom dollar that's exactly when we'll have to play, just like 2019 when their "away" crowd was a huge factor in our loss "hosting" the 1 vs 4 game.

Anywhere - fair enough this year without quarter of a stadium. But anytime? Nah that's garbage and being cheated by an unfair system.

 

[year of the cat]

I doubt it. They just have an ad slot that they make available to third parties- its totally automated. We all probably see a different ad- im looking at one for trading stocks, somebody else may see an ad for auto insurance. Itll depends on what the algo thinks your interested in.

Fxxk knows why they think I might be interested in attending some right wing f sticks’ event!

 

[Son_Of_God29]

This was my Ladder Predictor

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	18	4	0	139.9%
2.	Sydney	16	6	0	130.3%
3.	Fremantle	15	6	1	116.4%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	0	122.5%
5.	Collingwood	15	7	0	102.2%
6.	Melbourne	14	8	0	123.7%
7.	Carlton	14	8	0	109.6%
8.	Richmond	13	8	1	116.7%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	10	0	111.0%
10.	St Kilda	12	10	0	99.8%
11.	Gold Coast	10	12	0	102.5%
12.	Port Adelaide	9	13	0	102.5%
13.	Hawthorn	8	14	0	90.8%
14.	Essendon	8	14	0	89.4%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	0	88.8%
16.	GWS	6	16	0	84.2%
17.	West Coast	2	20	0	61.0%
18.	North Melbourne	2	20	0	56.8%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: SYDNEY v Fremantle
EF1: COLLINGWOOD v Richmond
EF2: Melbourne v CARLTON

SF1: Brisbane Lions v COLLINGWOOD
SF2: FREMANTLE v Carlton

PF1: GEELONG v Fremantle
PF2: SYDNEY v Collingwood

GF: GEELONG v Sydney

 

[Kobe Gryant]

This was my Ladder Predictor

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	18	4	0	139.9%
2.	Sydney	16	6	0	130.3%
3.	Fremantle	15	6	1	116.4%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	0	122.5%
5.	Collingwood	15	7	0	102.2%
6.	Melbourne	14	8	0	123.7%
7.	Carlton	14	8	0	109.6%
8.	Richmond	13	8	1	116.7%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	10	0	111.0%
10.	St Kilda	12	10	0	99.8%
11.	Gold Coast	10	12	0	102.5%
12.	Port Adelaide	9	13	0	102.5%
13.	Hawthorn	8	14	0	90.8%
14.	Essendon	8	14	0	89.4%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	0	88.8%
16.	GWS	6	16	0	84.2%
17.	West Coast	2	20	0	61.0%
18.	North Melbourne	2	20	0	56.8%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: SYDNEY v Fremantle
EF1: COLLINGWOOD v Richmond
EF2: Melbourne v CARLTON

SF1: Brisbane Lions v COLLINGWOOD
SF2: FREMANTLE v Carlton

PF1: GEELONG v Fremantle
PF2: SYDNEY v Collingwood

GF: GEELONG v Sydney

We'd be licking our lips at that and we're due a bit of luck with an 'easy' first up opponent.

Having said that if we get 3 interstate sides in a row I'll be stunned. David King touched on it today that there's almost always an outlier or 'freak event' and I subscribe to that view.

Something will happen. Richmond might get on a run, Lions might stun everybody and win week 1, Sydney or Geelong out in straight sets etc.

I have no idea what it will be but I'm sure something nobody sees coming is going to happen. As good as we are it's just the era of footy we live in right now.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Doesn't matter who we play, we win the flag from here.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Doesn't matter who we play, we win the flag from here.

Love it Mad_Hatter.

FWIW - I agree.