Analysis Are the Cats a Fraud

[My Tilly]

I'm well aware of the hurdles we face, but for you to say our last month was bog easy, that we played "nobody" is disingenuous. Only one team we have faced in the last month fell into the category of a club "looking forward to their off season holidays".

St Kilda, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide are not finalist and have not looked likely since the halfway mark of the season. Even the Bulldogs look worse now than what they did in the first half of the year.

I don't know why you and so many other Geelong supporters keep on pumping up St Kilda as if they were playing their grand final against us. Their season was done having only won 3 matches in two months when they faced us.

We have not had a stern test at all. We are going to get our first one in the qualifying final no matter how much you try to ignore it.

 

[PhatBoy]

St Kilda, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide are not finalist and have not looked likely since the halfway mark of the season. Even the Bulldogs look worse now than what they did in the first half of the year.

I don't know why you and so many other Geelong supporters keep on pumping up St Kilda as if they were playing their grand final against us. Their season was done having only won 3 matches in two months when they faced us.

We have not had a stern test at all. We are going to get our first one in the qualifying final no matter how much you try to ignore it.

We are about to play a top four side in a final.

Who the hell is assuming we aren’t going to get a test in that game?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Here we go. We can always be guaranteed you will chime in with your "I'm not sure why Cats even bother as they will bomb out in finals" arguments, and fake arguments. With that logic WB, Tigers and Demons should not have won premierships in recent years because of their track records...

This is who we beat in the last month:

Gold Coast - yes, have to concede they were easy beats with nothing to play for. Plenty still "predicted" Cats would lose to them because that's what always happens!
St Kilda - this was the Saints' elimination final. They had everything to play for. Is it our fault they didn't turn up after half time?
Bulldogs - same as Saints, when we played them they were still in the hunt for a finals berth
Port Power - they were still playing for a finals berth
Carlton - were fighting for a top 4 position

Truly is sad Sttew that football clubs have people with this mindset. That they can't enjoy the journey as the destination likely ends in despair.
Sad and pathetic sub-section of our fanbase.

Two comments recently have perfectly illustrated two sides of the same coin.

Firstly from MC Extra Dollop

The main strike against Geelong is recent history. But if history always repeated, Richmond and Melbourne wouldn't be the two most recent premiership teams. The Bulldogs wouldn't have broken the 60+ year flag drought and 50+ year drought of even making a grand final. Even West Coast in 2018 had to reverse a pretty ghastly recent MCG history IIRC. The history pages seem to get updated on a fairly regular basis in the sporting world.

Then barmy44

I'm pretty late to this thread, but the answer - as it is with any team who has a good season - they can be stopped by probability.

Even if Geelong went into each final with a 79% chance of winning, which they won't against other good finals teams, they'd have a 49.3% chance of winning all three and therefore the premiership.

So better than even chance of not winning it.

Their individual probability in each final will be far lower than 79%... they're a good team and definitely arguable as the best team in it, so even a 60% chance in each final means they have a 21.6% chance to win the flag - so less than 1 out of 4 odds. Against other top 4 teams, or other finalists if they play in a SF, even 60% is being generous.

Even if they are the best team in it, and they might be, the chances of the best team winning it are always less than the combined chances of someone else winning it.

The best team always has the best individual chance of winning it, but the weight of probability is always on one of the 2nd through 8th best teams winning it.

So long story short, anything could stop Geelong from here, and probability suggests something will.

But does the risk of history repeating and not being re-written in unison with probabilities being our downfall mean we should cease to enjoy the ride? Hell no. I'll have a ticket to that first final and win or loss will still enjoy the journey and buck up the following game to do it all again.

If recent finals history is the basis for a person's miserable outlook as a fan and means they struggle to find enjoyment watching their team, which I might add has had a very good run over the last 20-30 years then maybe its time to follow another sport or pick up another hobby.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Good thread. I don’t think Geelong are frauds, they would appear to have as good a chance as any team, at least. But why I like the thread is it brings into focus the opponents the Cats will face in finals. And so far that looks like this, just focussing on the teams certain to make finals:

Rd 2 LOSS 10.17 v 17.5 loss to Sydney at the SCG. - Very early season but I thought Sydney were a bit flattered by the scoreboard here. Not a dominant Geelong performance, but you certainly wouldn’t dismiss them based on this effort.

Rd 3 WIN 16.8 v 13.13 over Collingwood at the MCG. Early season as well, but similar, not a conclusive result.

Rd 4 WIN 11.14 v 11.4 over Brisbane at Geelong. Still vey early in the picture. Cats had much the better of it, but obviously won’t play big finals at this venue, the quirky ground they train on.

Rd 7 LOSS 10.6 v 10.9 v Fremantle at Geelong. Another inconclusive result, but this time at the favoured venue.

Rd 15 WIN 13.11 v 13.8 v Richmond at MCG. The famous game. Still an inconclusive result.

Rd 17 WIN 12.19 v 9.9 v Melbourne at Geelong. Comprehensive win late season, but at the favoured venue and against a team whose second half of the season has been very inconsistent but overall not very strong, despite two powerful wins v finals opponents Brisbane and Fremantle. No doubt this was a meritorious win for Cats but the quality of the opponent has to have at least some question marks over it.

So those are the 6 games that look like they matter most in terms of assessing finals prospects. If you focus on the two highest rated opponents coming into the season, Melbourne and Brisbane, Geelong had a comfortable margin on both, albeit at the Cat's favoured venue. The Cats look ominous based on that.

But if you shift your focus to the other 4 opponents, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and Fremantle, these results all look inconclusive, so there is a consistent pattern there. You would not dismiss Geelong based on any of these results but neither would you be declaring them. Those 4 teams all have high pressure and leg speed. Geelong will likely have to beat two of those teams in the finals to win the Premiership. That is the remaining question mark on the Cats for me, and it is a legitimate question mark unless and until they remove it in the Toyota AFL Finals series.

For me Geelong is entitled to flag favouritism, but their case to win it is certainly not infallible based on either the 2022 home and away season nor previous finals performances.

 

[Sttew]

Good thread. I don’t think Geelong are frauds, they would appear to have as good a chance as any team, at least. But why I like the thread is it brings into focus the opponents the Cats will face in finals. And so far that looks like this, just focussing on the teams certain to make finals:

Rd 2 LOSS 10.17 v 17.5 loss to Sydney at the SCG. - Very early season but I thought Sydney were a bit flattered by the scoreboard here. Not a dominant Geelong performance, but you certainly wouldn’t dismiss them based on this effort.

Rd 3 WIN 16.8 v 13.13 over Collingwood at the MCG. Early season as well, but similar, not a conclusive result.

Rd 4 WIN 11.14 v 11.4 over Brisbane at Geelong. Still vey early in the picture. Cats had much the better of it, but obviously won’t play big finals at this venue, the quirky ground they train on.

Rd 7 LOSS 10.6 v 10.9 v Fremantle at Geelong. Another inconclusive result, but this time at the favoured venue.

Rd 15 WIN 13.11 v 13.8 v Richmond at MCG. The famous game. Still an inconclusive result.

Rd 17 WIN 12.19 v 9.9 v Melbourne at Geelong. Comprehensive win late season, but at the favoured venue and against a team whose second half of the season has been very inconsistent but overall not very strong, despite two powerful wins v finals opponents Brisbane and Fremantle. No doubt this was a meritorious win for Cats but the quality of the opponent has to have at least some question marks over it.

So those are the 6 games that look like they matter most in terms of assessing finals prospects. If you focus on the two highest rated opponents coming into the season, Melbourne and Brisbane, Geelong had a comfortable margin on both, albeit at the Cat's favoured venue. The Cats look ominous based on that.

But if you shift your focus to the other 4 opponents, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and Fremantle, these results all look inconclusive, so there is a consistent pattern there. You would not dismiss Geelong based on any of these results but neither would you be declaring them. Those 4 teams all have high pressure and leg speed. Geelong will likely have to beat two of those teams in the finals to win the Premiership. That is the remaining question mark on the Cats for me, and it is a legitimate question mark unless and until they remove it in the Toyota AFL Finals series.

For me Geelong is entitled to flag favouritism, but their case to win it is certainly not infallible based on either the 2022 home and away season nor previous finals performances.

One of your better posts Meteoric Rise

 

[PhatBoy]

Good thread. I don’t think Geelong are frauds, they would appear to have as good a chance as any team, at least. But why I like the thread is it brings into focus the opponents the Cats will face in finals. And so far that looks like this, just focussing on the teams certain to make finals:

Rd 2 LOSS 10.17 v 17.5 loss to Sydney at the SCG. - Very early season but I thought Sydney were a bit flattered by the scoreboard here. Not a dominant Geelong performance, but you certainly wouldn’t dismiss them based on this effort.

Rd 3 WIN 16.8 v 13.13 over Collingwood at the MCG. Early season as well, but similar, not a conclusive result.

Rd 4 WIN 11.14 v 11.4 over Brisbane at Geelong. Still vey early in the picture. Cats had much the better of it, but obviously won’t play big finals at this venue, the quirky ground they train on.

Rd 7 LOSS 10.6 v 10.9 v Fremantle at Geelong. Another inconclusive result, but this time at the favoured venue.

Rd 15 WIN 13.11 v 13.8 v Richmond at MCG. The famous game. Still an inconclusive result.

Rd 17 WIN 12.19 v 9.9 v Melbourne at Geelong. Comprehensive win late season, but at the favoured venue and against a team whose second half of the season has been very inconsistent but overall not very strong, despite two powerful wins v finals opponents Brisbane and Fremantle. No doubt this was a meritorious win for Cats but the quality of the opponent has to have at least some question marks over it.

So those are the 6 games that look like they matter most in terms of assessing finals prospects. If you focus on the two highest rated opponents coming into the season, Melbourne and Brisbane, Geelong had a comfortable margin on both, albeit at the Cat's favoured venue. The Cats look ominous based on that.

But if you shift your focus to the other 4 opponents, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and Fremantle, these results all look inconclusive, so there is a consistent pattern there. You would not dismiss Geelong based on any of these results but neither would you be declaring them. Those 4 teams all have high pressure and leg speed. Geelong will likely have to beat two of those teams in the finals to win the Premiership. That is the remaining question mark on the Cats for me, and it is a legitimate question mark unless and until they remove it in the Toyota AFL Finals series.

For me Geelong is entitled to flag favouritism, but their case to win it is certainly not infallible based on either the 2022 home and away season nor previous finals performances.

A very fair assessment

 

[Golumless]

Fraud is the wrong word for the Cats. They're a gate keeper side under Scott. Minor round specialists, know how to get to finals, but they really are there to make sure to kill the fairytale sides who have no business having their season alive in September. They'll end up getting beat at some point by a Demons, Brisbane, Sydney or Fremantle in a preliminary or grand final.

 

[Ricketz]

Geelong are approaching Essendon levels of fraud.

Richmond are clearly the best team.

Sydney should be their opposition in the GF.

Sydney are stacked with first round academy players picked up for a fruit box and a chuppa chup.

Geelong are actually just a front for the Point Lonsdale Bowling Club. They have been funneling money from AFL coffers into their lamington drives. It's always been a sham, but you have to be in on it to know.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

Geelong are actually just a front for the Point Lonsdale Bowling Club. They have been funneling money from AFL coffers into their lamington drives. It's always been a sham, but you have to be in on it to know.

 

[Duskfire]

Geelongs problems have never been an easy run home though. They always have a good home & season, regardless of who they played. So say they only play West Coast and North once each and double up on a harder opponent, they are so far in front that they would still finish top 2 even if they lost those both? Also two of the games they lost were to teams currently outside the 8 so I am not sure if having a harder run home would really make a difference.

Geelongs problem in finals is that their gameplan doesn't match up, and the older bodies tend to run out of steam. It also doesn't help that their home ground where they are probably 50% better than anywhere else they don't get to play on. But the easy run home for being on top of the ladder isn't the reason; I would have backed Geelong to beat anyone during this 11 game period except maybe Sydney.

 

[Ricketz]

Geelongs problems have never been an easy run home though. They always have a good home & season, regardless of who they played. So say they only play West Coast and North once each and double up on a harder opponent, they are so far in front that they would still finish top 2 even if they lost those both? Also two of the games they lost were to teams currently outside the 8 so I am not sure if having a harder run home would really make a difference.

Geelongs problem in finals is that their gameplan doesn't match up, and the older bodies tend to run out of steam. It also doesn't help that their home ground where they are probably 50% better than anywhere else they don't get to play on. But the easy run home for being on top of the ladder isn't the reason; I would have backed Geelong to beat anyone during this 11 game period except maybe Sydney.

Actually, since the start of 2012 to today our average winning margin has been:

Home - 38.23
Away - 32.27

So basically a goal better at KP. The myth that we play poorly away.

 

[The_Todd07]

To be honest, I preferred last week's thread analyzing our fixture

 

[Defabs]

Good thread. I don’t think Geelong are frauds, they would appear to have as good a chance as any team, at least. But why I like the thread is it brings into focus the opponents the Cats will face in finals. And so far that looks like this, just focussing on the teams certain to make finals:

Rd 2 LOSS 10.17 v 17.5 loss to Sydney at the SCG. - Very early season but I thought Sydney were a bit flattered by the scoreboard here. Not a dominant Geelong performance, but you certainly wouldn’t dismiss them based on this effort.

Rd 3 WIN 16.8 v 13.13 over Collingwood at the MCG. Early season as well, but similar, not a conclusive result.

Rd 4 WIN 11.14 v 11.4 over Brisbane at Geelong. Still vey early in the picture. Cats had much the better of it, but obviously won’t play big finals at this venue, the quirky ground they train on.

Rd 7 LOSS 10.6 v 10.9 v Fremantle at Geelong. Another inconclusive result, but this time at the favoured venue.

Rd 15 WIN 13.11 v 13.8 v Richmond at MCG. The famous game. Still an inconclusive result.

Rd 17 WIN 12.19 v 9.9 v Melbourne at Geelong. Comprehensive win late season, but at the favoured venue and against a team whose second half of the season has been very inconsistent but overall not very strong, despite two powerful wins v finals opponents Brisbane and Fremantle. No doubt this was a meritorious win for Cats but the quality of the opponent has to have at least some question marks over it.

So those are the 6 games that look like they matter most in terms of assessing finals prospects. If you focus on the two highest rated opponents coming into the season, Melbourne and Brisbane, Geelong had a comfortable margin on both, albeit at the Cat's favoured venue. The Cats look ominous based on that.

But if you shift your focus to the other 4 opponents, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and Fremantle, these results all look inconclusive, so there is a consistent pattern there. You would not dismiss Geelong based on any of these results but neither would you be declaring them. Those 4 teams all have high pressure and leg speed. Geelong will likely have to beat two of those teams in the finals to win the Premiership. That is the remaining question mark on the Cats for me, and it is a legitimate question mark unless and until they remove it in the Toyota AFL Finals series.

For me Geelong is entitled to flag favouritism, but their case to win it is certainly not infallible based on either the 2022 home and away season nor previous finals performances.

That game against Collingwood unfolded in pretty much the opposite to most Collingwood games in the second half of the year.

Collingwood were slightly down at half time but had the better of general play until that point. They came out with a 9 goal third term and got out to a 37 point lead just before 3 Qtr time.

Geelong then dominated the clearances, Collingwood looked to be dead on their feet and Collingwood’s defence lost all structure. While it’s unlikely Geelong would concede 9 goals in a quarter right now, I couldn’t see Collingwood conceding a 5 goal 3 Qtr time lead either. Their fitness and run and carry can be sustained now for the entire match.

If Collingwood and Geelong do meet in the QF, it would be one for the ages.

 

[Sttew]

If Collingwood and Geelong do meet in the QF, it would be one for the ages.

A la 2007 Prelim Final? THE most intense final I have ever been to

 

[Number37]

Yet another thread about a successful team & how they magically took a shortcut to their success.
Woe is f'ing me, my team wasn't able to magically take advantage of a shortcut to success. It is so unfair.

 

[Defabs]

A la 2007 Prelim Final? THE most intense final I have ever been to

Yep. It’s ironic two of the best finals I’ve ever seen Collingwood play were in losing finals (2007 PF and 2002 GF). Played to our absolute potential against two of the greatest sides of all time. (For the record 2002 QF, possibly the best winning final Collingwood have played in).

 

[Falcon3518]

Yes, will lose the QF win the SF then lose the prelim. Guaranteed. Literally every other team in the top 8 bar Freo has a game style that counters Cats in finals.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Jackington]

Well. Bookmarking this.

 

[Jackington]

Yes, will lose the QF win the SF then lose the prelim. Guaranteed. Literally every other team in the top 8 bar Freo has a game style that counters Cats in finals.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You're forgetting Brisbane, whose game style is "don't win at the MCG, don't win in Geelong and don't win finals at ANY cost,"

Brisbane couldn't even get it done against Geelong in a home prelim, and have managed a total of 1 finals win from three consecutive top four finishes. Makes Geelong's record look gold standard.

 

[Jackington]

Yet another thread about a successful team & how they magically took a shortcut to their success.
Woe is f'ing me, my team wasn't able to magically take advantage of a shortcut to success. It is so unfair.

Pretty sure this thread existed for Melbourne last year too.

"Oh but they had an easy draw, and you can't be a premiership chance if you're losing to teams like Adelaide late in the season,"

 

[Back One Out]

one of the most biased draws of all time for a side coming off a Preliminary Final.

• Sides they have doubled up against, Roos, Eagles, Saints, Dogs and Power all outside the 8.
• Of the 7 games only against top 8 sides 3 have been in Geelong, 3 at he MCG and only 1 against the swans away which was a comfortable loss.
• In the 15 games played since round 8 they have played 12 sides outside the 8 with games against Richmond and struggling Carlton at the G and Melbourne at Skilled.
• 5 of their last 8 games at Skilled
• Last 5 games against sides outside the 8.

 

[Sttew]

You're forgetting Brisbane, whose game style is "don't win at the MCG, don't win in Geelong and don't win finals at ANY cost,"

Brisbane couldn't even get it done against Geelong in a home prelim, and have managed a total of 1 finals win from three consecutive top four finishes. Makes Geelong's record look gold standard.

But, but....

 

[Ricketz]

It's so good to have both of them working for Geelong. Like the Selwoods. Or the Abletts. It just makes sense.

 

[FreakShow20]

A la 2007 Prelim Final? THE most intense final I have ever been to

That game was 2 hours of torture.

 

[Sttew]

You're forgetting Brisbane, whose game style is "don't win at the MCG, don't win in Geelong and don't win finals at ANY cost,"

Brisbane couldn't even get it done against Geelong in a home prelim, and have managed a total of 1 finals win from three consecutive top four finishes. Makes Geelong's record look gold standard.

You won’t hear boo from Falcon3518 to this post as it doesn’t suit his narrative