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List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion - 2022 Off Season Edition

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Contract status of all players now fully updated

 
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Our 4th best player?? and our only decent mid this year.
Kelly is a good player and out best midfielder now. But he is not a top 10 midfielder in the comp. And thus we overpaid for him. Wasn't the entire suite of picks we gave up for him equated to the equivelant of pick 1 in the draft?
 
Our 4th best player?? and our only decent mid this year.

4th best player this year is not exactly a high bar and he isn't one of the top midfielders in the competition at the moment.

I completely support the rationale of throwing those picks to get Kelly across as the possible final piece of the puzzle to grab another flag, but after 2022 it's clear we misjudged the state of the list. It's time to reset.
 
Lyons definitely has had a better career at this time than Kelly and a better career as a mid than Yeo…. Yeo hasnt played for three years for a start.
Given his recent injury history we have to consider then possibility that Yeo might be inside his last 50 games at AFL level and will possibly never get anywhere near his previous high points in terms of form as a player. I think that that is one of the main differences in opinion between those who are glass half full on here and those who are glass half empty. The glass half full crowd are expecting the likes of Yeo, Shuey and Gaff to return to their 2018 formlines.
 
Kelly is a good player and out best midfielder now. But he is not a top 10 midfielder in the comp. And thus we overpaid for him. Wasn't the entire suite of picks we gave up for him equated to the equivelant of pick 1 in the draft?
He was an AA mid and top 5 in the brownlow when we got him. He was seen as a pretty good get at the time.
 

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He was an AA mid and top 5 in the brownlow when we got him. He was seen as a pretty good get at the time.
Agreed. But the deal looks like a mistake in hindsight. As the other poster Forward Press said we misjudged the state of our list and he wasn't the ever going to be the difference between another crack at a flag or not. And i think if you look at his performances since he arrived, whilst not being bad they don't justify the price we paid for him. I think if the club could go back in time and have that moment again they would be prepared to walk away if they couldn't get Geelong to agree to a lower price.
 
If he didn't want to McStay, why did he bring his McLuggage?
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Just continuing the enquiry into players drafted in the 20s as the value of those picks is squarely in question, here’s how 2016 is looking (the first number indicates tge draft pick, the second number indicates games played and an asterisk indicates that their career is continuing):

Will Hayward (21,111*)
Brandan Parfitt (26,111*)
Shai Bolton (29,91*)
Patrick Lipinski (28,81*)
Jordan Ridley (22,68*)
Alex Witherden (23,81*?)
Ben Long (25,79*)
Zac Fisher (27,64*)
Isaac Cumming (20,23*)

So 2016 is looking likely to produce 7-9 players that make 100 games, further increasing the percentage of players drafted in the 20s to hit that mark.
 
Lyons definitely has had a better career at this time than Kelly and a better career as a mid than Yeo…. Yeo hasnt played for three years for a start.
Yeo has won two best and fairests and an AA as a mid.

Kelly has an all Australian and top 5 place in the Brownlow.

Lyons has two Ashcroft medals.

I know which careers I’d take.
 
Yeo has won two best and fairests and an AA as a mid.

Kelly has an all Australian and top 5 place in the Brownlow.

Lyons has two Ashcroft medals.

I know which careers I’d take.

Yeo got one Aa as a halfback so strike that out for a start.

Kelly had a decent season in his second year and done stuff all since…

I know exactly whose career you would take that’s why you think Shuey should still be playing… maybe he can play half back with Yeo if he ever plays again.
 
Just continuing the enquiry into players drafted in the 20s as the value of those picks is squarely in question, here’s how 2016 is looking (the first number indicates tge draft pick, the second number indicates games played and an asterisk indicates that their career is continuing):

Will Hayward (21,111*)
Brandan Parfitt (26,111*)
Shai Bolton (29,91*)
Patrick Lipinski (28,81*)
Jordan Ridley (22,68*)
Alex Witherden (23,81*?)
Ben Long (25,79*)
Zac Fisher (27,64*)
Isaac Cumming (20,23*)

So 2016 is looking likely to produce 7-9 players that make 100 games, further increasing the percentage of players drafted in the 20s to hit that mark.

2008 had a high number make 100 games too. So? The exception proves the rule.
 
Yeo got one Aa as a halfback so strike that out for a start.

Kelly had a decent season in his second year and done stuff all since…

I know exactly whose career you would take that’s why you think Shuey should still be playing… maybe he can play half back with Yeo if he ever plays again.
Yeo definitely wasnt playing HB in 2019 when he got his second AA.
 
Yeo got one Aa as a halfback so strike that out for a start.

Kelly had a decent season in his second year and done stuff all since…

I know exactly whose career you would take that’s why you think Shuey should still be playing… maybe he can play half back with Yeo if he ever plays again.
Only mentioned one AA for Yeo champ.

Lyons is literally a whipping boy because he’s an ineffective plodder these days.

You say Kelly had one decent season but it’s better than anything Lyons has produced, and realistically Lyons has literally had two decent seasons.

This isn’t even a debate mate you’re absolutely delusional.
 

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Yeo has won two best and fairests and an AA as a mid.

Kelly has an all Australian and top 5 place in the Brownlow.

Lyons has two Ashcroft medals.

I know which careers I’d take.
Yeo's also got a premiership 🏅!
 
And labouring the point further, here’s how 2017 is shaping up:

Oscar Allen (21,59*)
Tim Kelly (24,102*)
Noah Balta (25,62*)
Liam Ryan (26,86*)
Sam Taylor (28,75*)
Charlie Spargo (29,83*)
Brent Daniels (27,53*)
Lachie Fogarty (22,43*)
Callum Coleman-Jones (20,13*)
Will Walker (23,6)

So, of those, I’d guess that at least 6 will play 100 games, possibly as many as 9. Again, this increases the percentage strike rate for picks in the 20s beyond the number suggested by Forward Press’s analysis. If we project using the estimates for 2016 and 2017 then it seems that with a pick in the 20s we’re more likely than not to get a 100 game player. And the analysis suggests there’s a good chance of several stars among those 10 picks each year.

Incidentally Tom De Koning and Bailey Fritsch were picks 30 and 31 in 2017.
 
Kelly is a good player and out best midfielder now. But he is not a top 10 midfielder in the comp. And thus we overpaid for him. Wasn't the entire suite of picks we gave up for him equated to the equivelant of pick 1 in the draft?
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No ones getting pick 1 for those picks though.
Not sure that's the point. We ended up with a B-Grade mid and 2 picks outside 50, compared to 2 x first rounders and an early 2nd. This does not even consider that a pick 1 comes with a small contract, and Kelly came at 800k p/a straight off the bat.

No shame in admitting that we cooked it.
 
I think if you took biased WCE and Geelong supporters opinions out of it the general consensus through the rest of the AFL is that we got bent over and overpaid for Kelly. Not that Kelly is not a decent player. But we overpaid. Everytime i have ever seen that deal mentioned in media articles since, especially from Victorian based media, the tone is bordering on gloating and laughing at us. I don't remember ever seeing one commentator or one article since that trade that has suggested that we won that trade or got the best of that deal. General consensus of unbiased observers is not split. It is unanimous that we overpaid. If we had been prepared to say No to Geelong's demands we might have gotten him cheaper or the whole deal might have collapsed. We will never know now.
 
Not sure that's the point. We ended up with a B-Grade mid and 2 picks outside 50, compared to 2 x first rounders and an early 2nd. This does not even consider that a pick 1 comes with a small contract, and Kelly came at 800k p/a straight off the bat.

No shame in admitting that we cooked it.
Was a necessary deal at the time, obviously in hindsight if we could have predicted our starting midfield getting injured we don’t do it.

Hate when it gets boiled down to “two first rounders though”, 14 and 18 are very different to 6 and 8.

I’d say if we cut it down to two picks you’re looking at 7 and 15 out of those, definite overpay but not all that bad for a top 25 mid in the comp, look at what Carlton just paid for Cerra who’s a worse player.
 
Was a necessary deal at the time, obviously in hindsight if we could have predicted our starting midfield getting injured we don’t do it.

Hate when it gets boiled down to “two first rounders though”, 14 and 18 are very different to 6 and 8.

I’d say if we cut it down to two picks you’re looking at 7 and 15 out of those, definite overpay but not all that bad for a top 25 mid in the comp, look at what Carlton just paid for Cerra who’s a worse player.
That very thought process of thinking the deal was "necessary" is why we got bent over. Geelong could see that mentality in us and realised that we would never walk away from the table and they could demand whatever they wanted in terms of draft picks and if it was within our power to give it them we would. If they had seen somebody on the other side of the table who was willing to walk away they would have taken less. You can never get into a mindset at the trading table of thinking that a deal to trade a player in is necessary or essential. Or if you do you need to do a bloody good job of hiding that from the other side. Our tunnel vision was on full display.
 
Was a necessary deal at the time, obviously in hindsight if we could have predicted our starting midfield getting injured we don’t do it.

Hate when it gets boiled down to “two first rounders though”, 14 and 18 are very different to 6 and 8.

I’d say if we cut it down to two picks you’re looking at 7 and 15 out of those, definite overpay but not all that bad for a top 25 mid in the comp, look at what Carlton just paid for Cerra who’s a worse player.
1. Kelly requested a trade to WA, not a necessary trade IMO.
2. Two first rounders is not up for debate. It was.
3. Pointing at Cerra is whataboutism. The trade still stinks.
 
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