Geelong's record in finals under Chris Scott

Hoops

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There are those that argue it's all about Grand Final wins and they have a point to an extent. But in the same breath will complain about Geelongs finals record which doesn't matter if it's just about winning the big one.

For the record in the Scott years Geelong have won 3 times the AFL average for Grand finals.
 

Romeoh1

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There are those that argue it's all about Grand Final wins and they have a point to an extent. But in the same breath will complain about Geelongs finals record which doesn't matter if it's just about winning the big one.

For the record in the Scott years Geelong have won 3 times the AFL average for Grand finals.
Yep- and if one thinks all that matters is winning flags- fair enough. I reckon there’s a lot more to it than that, but I accept others feel differently.
As a Geelong supporter, I feel pretty darn fortunate.
 
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Why do the likes of Gerard Whateley harp on about Chris Scott's win percentage in the home and away, while also saying finals win percentage doesn't matter?

Chris Scott's home and away win percentage suggests Geelong should have won at least twice as many premierships during his tenure.


No it doesn’t.

We have finished on top of the ladder twice during his tenure. We have won 2 premierships during his tenure.

In what world SHOULD we have won 4 flags with that record?

They harp on about his record because he has turned over 19 players from one premiership team and created another, without so much as 2 seasons of mediocrity. He’s done the same thing other clubs have done in the past as far as results go, but HE has managed it without ever having to drop off. Since equalisation and nationalisation came into existence the only other club who has come close to this is West Coast who turned over their entire list bar Drew Banfield between 1994 and 2006 - and even THEY missed TWO finals campaigns and didn’t make a solitary preliminary final between 95-04. We didn’t just make them regularly - we were CRITICISED for making 7 of them in 11 seasons such was our efficiency in getting there.
 
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Record vs performance gets lost a bit. This year was the first year I can remember in a long time where finals Geelong looked and played like H&A Geelong. Often in recent years for whatever reason Geelong have got to September and gone into their shells, playing safe, slow, low scoring footy. You shouldn't be winning 3/4 of your games over the period of a decade and only 1/3 of your finals. It's a big enough sample size to be anomalous. Losing a pulsating prelim 102-97 to Hawthorn in 2013 is very different to getting flogged in the QF and PF in 2021 and not putting 50 points on the board in either game.

Footy is a tough business. Reverse the result of the GF and people would be heaping praise on Sydney and the knives would be out for Chris Scott. Instead Scott has some long overdue reward for effort and Sydney are being panned for a 3rd disappointing GF appearance, another quiet game from Buddy etc. Both clubs have still outperformed 14 or 15 others with their coaches in charge.

Chris Scott walked into a pretty good scenario with a successful team with a core of players in their prime and some young, foundational pieces even though Ling and Ottens never played after the 2011 GF, Scarlett retired a year later and most of the 07-11 era players were gone after a couple of years. A lot of credit needs to go to the recruiting and development. Since the 2011 flag they've brought in Blicavs, Dangerfield, Stewart, Kelly, Cameron, Stengle who have all been AA players to go with Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor, Guthrie, Enright who were already there and made it from 2012 onward. I doubt any other club can match that.
 

Power Play

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No it doesn’t.

We have finished on top of the ladder twice during his tenure. We have won 2 premierships during his tenure.

In what world SHOULD we have won 4 flags with that record?

They harp on about his record because he has turned over 19 players from one premiership team and created another, without so much as 2 seasons of mediocrity. He’s done the same thing other clubs have done in the past as far as results go, but HE has managed it without ever having to drop off. Since equalisation and nationalisation came into existence the only other club who has come close to this is West Coast who turned over their entire list bar Drew Banfield between 1994 and 2006 - and even THEY missed TWO finals campaigns and didn’t make a solitary preliminary final between 95-04. We didn’t just make them regularly - we were CRITICISED for making 7 of them in 11 seasons such was our efficiency in getting there.
Geelong supporters widely agree 2013 and 2019 were premierships that got away, given they finished top 2 after the home and away in both seasons, yet failed to make the grand final.

Also,
Ken Hinkley has a better finals win percentage than Chris Scott, and boasts a finals win-loss record of 2-1 against him, but I wouldn't use this as a metric to try argue that Hinkley is a better coach than Scott.

However,
Chris Scott has never won the AFLCA Coach of The Year award.
Ken Hinkley is a 2x AFLCA Coach of The Year winner.

I'd use this metric to mount an argument that Ken Hinkley is a good coach, along with the fact he was desperately unlucky to fall short of a grand final two years in a row after finishing top 2 in the home and away.
 

Romeoh1

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Geelong supporters widely agree 2013 and 2019 were premierships that got away, given they finished top 2 after the home and away in both seasons, yet failed to make the grand final.

Also,
Ken Hinkley has a better finals win percentage than Chris Scott, and boasts a finals win-loss record of 2-1 against him, but I wouldn't use this as a metric to try argue that Hinkley is a better coach than Scott.

However,
Chris Scott has never won the AFLCA Coach of The Year award.
Ken Hinkley is a 2x AFLCA Coach of The Year winner.

I'd use this metric to mount an argument that Ken Hinkley is a good coach, along with the fact he was desperately unlucky to fall short of a grand final two years in a row after finishing top 2 in the home and away.
Not sure Geelong fans ‘widely agree’ re 13/19. From what I’ve seen, Geelong fans, like every other club, have a great array of views on our efforts. Some Geelong supporters think we were a bit unlucky not getting the 2013 one-and that’s probably fair- we got pretty close to it. Still, Hawks were the flag favourites and finished on top and in slightly better shape than us.
I haven’t really noticed anyone saying that 2019 was one that got away- we had an ordinary and unconvincing second half of the season and Richmond - who had a great second half to the season were deservedly winners.
 
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Mr Meow

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Yes but the fifth-8th team often lose 1 and win 0. Whereas the 3rd to 4th win 1 and lose 2. the latter is better for your win loss record.

plus geelong have been top 2 far more often then 3-4.

geelong finished top 2 in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022.

only made the gf twice.
The top 2 finishes have been exceptionally tight besides this season where we were well on top. % separated some and then the reward was playing an MCG tenant at the G. Which I'm fine with, it just bares spelling out as a factor.

2013 they wasted the one genuine home final they had, 2016 prelim was a waste but Sydney finished top and the Cats team was mostly Dangerfield/Selwood dominance. 2017 onwards it's mostly been away finals losses and winning home state finals (when against interstate teams) plus the odd game against an MCG tenant. 2019 and 2020 Richmond were just a few goals better.

This year they had a dominant team and they got the job done.
 

Mr Meow

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Good point. Still, its 4 top 2 finishes in 9 seasons. And in 2014, when we finished 3rd, we were equal top with only percentage seperating us.
In 2019 we finished top but only % off 3rd and a game off 5th - so pretty much even with our opponents Collingwood. Stop being lazy. "Home" final at Pies ground, lose so get an actual away final against Premiers.

2020 only % off finishing 5th. Interstate final.

2021 closer to 5th than 1st. Two interstate finals at opponents home ground.

2017 if our draw was a loss we were 3rd, but still would've had the same away final. Lost a "home" final against Richmond, so punishment is an actual away final against Adelaide.

I don't think going 1-2 those years with a decent but not great team was crazy at all. 2012-2016 definitely disappointing as we blew chances with advantage or lost to lesser teams (Freo twice and Roos once, then a prelim against an interstate team at the G).
 
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May 5, 2016
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Geelong supporters widely agree 2013 and 2019 were premierships that got away, given they finished top 2 after the home and away in both seasons, yet failed to make the grand final.

Also,
Ken Hinkley has a better finals win percentage than Chris Scott, and boasts a finals win-loss record of 2-1 against him, but I wouldn't use this as a metric to try argue that Hinkley is a better coach than Scott.

However,
Chris Scott has never won the AFLCA Coach of The Year award.
Ken Hinkley is a 2x AFLCA Coach of The Year winner.

I'd use this metric to mount an argument that Ken Hinkley is a good coach, along with the fact he was desperately unlucky to fall short of a grand final two years in a row after finishing top 2 in the home and away.


Sorry do they?

In 2013 with a side running on fumes we lost to a team about to win 3 straight flags who should have won the year before as well. It was a chance, sure, but it was a chance because we still had enough old blokes who knew what they were doing to push Hawthorn to within a kick. We also didn’t have Corey Enright for that prelim.


Of course 2019 got away: one grand finalist kicked 27 points or something, in what world wouldn’t we feel that way? The performance of GWS a week later doesn’t retrospectively make Richmond’s game against us in the prelim any easier though.
 

Romeoh1

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Sorry do they?

In 2013 with a side running on fumes we lost to a team about to win 3 straight flags who should have won the year before as well. It was a chance, sure, but it was a chance because we still had enough old blokes who knew what they were doing to push Hawthorn to within a kick. We also didn’t have Corey Enright for that prelim.


Of course 2019 got away: one grand finalist kicked 27 points or something, in what world wouldn’t we feel that way? The performance of GWS a week later doesn’t retrospectively make Richmond’s game against us in the prelim any easier though.
Or Chapman.
 

Falcon3518

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No it doesn’t.

We have finished on top of the ladder twice during his tenure. We have won 2 premierships during his tenure.

In what world SHOULD we have won 4 flags with that record?

They harp on about his record because he has turned over 19 players from one premiership team and created another, without so much as 2 seasons of mediocrity. He’s done the same thing other clubs have done in the past as far as results go, but HE has managed it without ever having to drop off. Since equalisation and nationalisation came into existence the only other club who has come close to this is West Coast who turned over their entire list bar Drew Banfield between 1994 and 2006 - and even THEY missed TWO finals campaigns and didn’t make a solitary preliminary final between 95-04. We didn’t just make them regularly - we were CRITICISED for making 7 of them in 11 seasons such was our efficiency in getting there.

Add up the probability of winning a flag from the other positions and yes it’d be about 4. Minor premiers are not the only teams that win it. Believe it or not even though you just won a flag you are still below par what you should be, pretty amazing when you think about it.


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Add up the probability of winning a flag from the other positions and yes it’d be about 4. Minor premiers are not the only teams that win it. Believe it or not even though you just won a flag you are still below par what you should be, pretty amazing when you think about it.


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No it’s not. That’s not how maths works
 
Add up the probability of winning a flag from the other positions and yes it’d be about 4. Minor premiers are not the only teams that win it. Believe it or not even though you just won a flag you are still below par what you should be, pretty amazing when you think about it.


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aren't you a data analyst? next time you could try backing up your claims with a little data

like this; Which AFL ladder positions are the premiership 'hotspots'?

21 of the past 22 premiers have finished top 3, with 1st, 2nd and 3rd equally winning 7 each (outlier is the Dogs from 7th). That's a 31.8% strike rate for each of the top 3 spots.

Since Scott took over, Geelong has finished in the top three 8 times for 2 flags at a strike rate of 25%, 6.8% below the AFL average. This means with the probability of winning a flag at 31.8% we can only have results slightly below (2 flags, 25%) or slightly above (3 flags, 37.5%).

Should Geelong have more flags to show for their H&A positions over Chris Scott's tenure? Probability says.. maybe. Nothing suggests a team should on average win 4 flags from 8 top 3 finishes though so as per usual, you're wrong.
 

Falcon3518

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Looks like somebody already did

He said slightly above (3 flags). Is that not about 4 like I said. You guys are weird. Like just using your head. 11 and 22 are 2 flags. Are you saying that in that gap you should’ve only gotten 1 flag not 2. Seriously? Either way it’s 3-4 flags.


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He said slightly above (3 flags). Is that not about 4 like I said. You guys are weird. Like just using your head. 11 and 22 are 2 flags. Are you saying that in that gap you should’ve only gotten 1 flag not 2. Seriously? Either way it’s 3-4 flags.


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No one ‘should’ be winning any more than a flag every 18 years regardless of where you finish for starters.

Secondly you’ve just been shown that if you ARE going to go down the ‘maths’ route, we’ve won pretty much the exact amount we ‘should’ have won and then you’ve just tried to tack a couple of lazy flags on that we ‘should’ have added.

So we finish 3rd giving us a mathematically sound chance of winning a comp? F***ing fantastic - what about the two teams who finish first and second in those years - you know, there’s two of them meaning that there is a bigger chance of us not winning than winning…..

And they are all independent events.

Twice we have been measured as the best team after 22 rounds of home and away football. Twice we have been measured the best at the conclusion of four rounds of finals football.

Gee if I didn’t know better I’d say there was some statistical correlation there.

Here’s a tip after some of the suspensions and what you perceive as
‘Bullying.’

If you don’t like it, stop trying to diminish the achievements of people and teams for no reason.
 

Fadge

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Add up the probability of winning a flag from the other positions and yes it’d be about 4. Minor premiers are not the only teams that win it. Believe it or not even though you just won a flag you are still below par what you should be, pretty amazing when you think about it.
Let's see your logic on this.

Go.
 

Falcon3518

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No one ‘should’ be winning any more than a flag every 18 years regardless of where you finish for starters.

Secondly you’ve just been shown that if you ARE going to go down the ‘maths’ route, we’ve won pretty much the exact amount we ‘should’ have won and then you’ve just tried to tack a couple of lazy flags on that we ‘should’ have added.

So we finish 3rd giving us a mathematically sound chance of winning a comp? F***ing fantastic - what about the two teams who finish first and second in those years - you know, there’s two of them meaning that there is a bigger chance of us not winning than winning…..

And they are all independent events.

Twice we have been measured as the best team after 22 rounds of home and away football. Twice we have been measured the best at the conclusion of four rounds of finals football.

Gee if I didn’t know better I’d say there was some statistical correlation there.

Here’s a tip after some of the suspensions and what you perceive as
‘Bullying.’

If you don’t like it, stop trying to diminish the achievements of people and teams for no reason.

I’m not doing anything is a fact that Chris Scott has underperformed. Maybe I’ll put it a simpler way. We are using finals placements because we are talking about finals record on this thread that’s why the 18 team example isn’t applicable.

You got like what:

- 3 GF. Expected to be 50/50 games = 1.5 flags

- 7 prelims. Expected to be 3.5 GF = 1.75 flags

You are already at 3.25 flags without counting the other finals placements. Whatever way you slice it Scott should be a 3-4 time premiership coach. If we can’t say this basic thing that everybody knows except for diehard Cats supporters like you without you freaking out this thread shouldn’t be on the main board. Don’t even know why you care tbh you just won a flag ffs. Go celebrate instead of melting, nothing worse than a bad winner.


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Fadge

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aren't you a data analyst? next time you could try backing up your claims with a little data

like this; Which AFL ladder positions are the premiership 'hotspots'?

21 of the past 22 premiers have finished top 3, with 1st, 2nd and 3rd equally winning 7 each (outlier is the Dogs from 7th). That's a 31.8% strike rate for each of the top 3 spots.

Since Scott took over, Geelong has finished in the top three 8 times for 2 flags at a strike rate of 25%, 6.8% below the AFL average. This means with the probability of winning a flag at 31.8% we can only have results slightly below (2 flags, 25%) or slightly above (3 flags, 37.5%).

Should Geelong have more flags to show for their H&A positions over Chris Scott's tenure? Probability says.. maybe. Nothing suggests a team should on average win 4 flags from 8 top 3 finishes though so as per usual, you're wrong.
And any rational person would use the historical stats and understand that it is really only a very small dataset and factor in long term probability to substantiate a conclusion.

Unless you really believe a team is 0% chance of winning the flag from 4th, because noone has been able to do it yet under the current finals system...
 

Fadge

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I’m not doing anything is a fact that Chris Scott has underperformed. Maybe I’ll put it a simpler way. We are using finals placements because we are talking about finals record on this thread that’s why the 18 team example isn’t applicable.

You got like what:

- 3 GF. Expected to be 50/50 games = 1.5 flags

- 7 prelims. Expected to be 3.5 GF = 1.75 flags

You are already at 3.25 flags without counting the other finals placements. Whatever way you slice it Scott should be a 3-4 time premiership coach. If we can’t say this basic thing that everybody knows except for diehard Cats supporters like you without you freaking out this thread shouldn’t be on the main board. Don’t even know why you care tbh you just won a flag ffs. Go celebrate instead of melting, nothing worse than a bad winner.


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Ah, ok.

So if Geelong had have more straight sets exits after finishing top 4, Chris Scott wouldn't have been seen to have underperformed so badly?

Gotcha.

Edit: Trying to wrap my head around this 'logic', your base data is actually incorrect in that he's actually coached Geelong to only 5 Preliminary Finals (compared to your 7 quoted) in addition to the 3 Grand Finals.

As a professional and highly experienced Data Analyst, you really should ensure your base data is accurate.
 
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Falcon3518

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Ah, ok.

So if Geelong had have more straight sets exits after finishing top 4, Chris Scott wouldn't have been seen to have underperformed so badly?

Gotcha.

Wtf?


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Falcon3518

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If we accept flags are the be-all and end-all, a coach winning 2 flags within 11 years in an 18 team competition can't be construed as anything other than a resounding success.

Yes that’s correct he’s a great coach for winning 2 flags and that is above average for the reasons you said.

However the confusion here is the thread topic. This thread is not Scott’s overall record, which is exceptional for winning 2 flags. It’s just his finals record which is subpar which should have gotten him another 1-2 from his finals placements.

I think some cats supporters are getting offended first and thinking later probably cause it’s me of all people saying it. I’m not having a dig and they keep thinking I am.


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