Draft Expert Chris25's 2022 Young Talent Time

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Chris25 said:
Since we're heading into the finals, it means 10 teams have nothing to look forward to except the draft. So why not do a quick top 10 mock for them...

I should note, I'm going to assume Adelaide trade #5 to the Gold Coast for Izak Rankine. It seems more likely than not. While other picks will no doubt change, it's not quite as clear.

1. Brisbane (matched bid) - Will Ashcroft
2. North Melbourne - George Wardlaw
3. West Coast - Elijah Tsatas
4. GWS - Aaron Cadman
5. Essendon - Harry Sheezel
6. Gold Coast (trade) - Jedd Busslinger
7. Hawthorn - Mattaes Phillipou
8. Gold Coast - Oliver Hollands
9. Port Adelaide - Bailey Humphrey
10. St Kilda - Cameron McKenzie
11. Carlton - Elijah Hewett

Nothing too shocking. We'll see if there are any big finals performances or strong draft combines to change it up, but it seems as though there's probably a fairly settled top 15 or so.

I do keep changing my mind on North's pick. But I think Wardlaw is the best available pure mid - while it might not be the ideal list fit at the moment, I think just go best on offer and fix the list balance later. The only other one I changed my mind on was if Gold Coast have two top 10 picks, in which case I think they can be strategic - either take Hewett and go with the two WA boys, or more likely pair up the Hollands brothers. I'm a big fan of Elijah Hollands, and Oliver is good enough that it's not a stretch to take him there.
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Enjoy reading your material as usual Chris, I'd be very pleased with Carlton's outcome, I think Elijiah Hewett is a specia talent when firing.
 

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Enviable Tradition said:
Who's the best goal kicking small forward in this draft?

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app
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It's not a strength of this draft in my opinion.

There's quite a few sort of midfield/forward types - from the top 10 prospects like Sheezel and Humphrey, to guys like Coby Burgiel, Olli Hotton and Jaiden Magor. I think that's one strength of the draft pool. But if these guys don't make it as midfielders, they're more likely to be flankers or medium forwards. Not the small, crumbing types. I like Harry Cole and Tyrell Dewar from WA, but again they're the same being in more the medium/flanker mould.

Blake Drury and Darcy Jones are two sub 180cm mids who may have to develop more as small forwards at the next level. I think they're both AFL quality. Jed Hagan too, although I'd probably go the other way and have him develop down back.

Jacob Konstanty is probably the most highly regarded small forward in the pool at the moment. I don't have him as high as others - I view him more as a 30 to 50 prospect, whereas some have him borderline top 20. He'll probably prove me wrong, because I do think he'll find a role at AFL level. I tend to think of him more as a crafty, pressure forward as opposed to a true goal kicking small - a bit like Sam Switkowski at Fremantle.

If I was to take a guy, I guess I'd maybe go with either Charlie Clarke in the second/third rounds. He has midfield ability, but up forward he's versatile. Has speed, a bit of dare and one of the most natural at finding the goals. Or I'd take a chance on Beau Tedcastle as a rookie. Small forward from the NT, he's a genuine goal kicker.
 
Chris25 said:
It's not a strength of this draft in my opinion.

There's quite a few sort of midfield/forward types - from the top 10 prospects like Sheezel and Humphrey, to guys like Coby Burgiel, Olli Hotton and Jaiden Magor. I think that's one strength of the draft pool. But if these guys don't make it as midfielders, they're more likely to be flankers or medium forwards. Not the small, crumbing types. I like Harry Cole and Tyrell Dewar from WA, but again they're the same being in more the medium/flanker mould.

Blake Drury and Darcy Jones are two sub 180cm mids who may have to develop more as small forwards at the next level. I think they're both AFL quality. Jed Hagan too, although I'd probably go the other way and have him develop down back.

Jacob Konstanty is probably the most highly regarded small forward in the pool at the moment. I don't have him as high as others - I view him more as a 30 to 50 prospect, whereas some have him borderline top 20. He'll probably prove me wrong, because I do think he'll find a role at AFL level. I tend to think of him more as a crafty, pressure forward as opposed to a true goal kicking small - a bit like Sam Switkowski at Fremantle.

If I was to take a guy, I guess I'd maybe go with either Charlie Clarke in the second/third rounds. He has midfield ability, but up forward he's versatile. Has speed, a bit of dare and one of the most natural at finding the goals. Or I'd take a chance on Beau Tedcastle as a rookie. Small forward from the NT, he's a genuine goal kicker.
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Noah Long?
 
It's getting to everyone's favourite time of the year - draft bolter season! And if you ever want proof of how we're all amateurs on here, watch the names Max Gruzewski and Edward Allan start to enter draft boards on the back of Twomey mentioning the late interest. Follow this tactic, and you too could be the next writer at ESPN.

To be fair, they have both had injury interrupted seasons. Ed Allan in particular showed signs last year and in his one game for WA this season. If he tests well, he'll be a genuine top 20 chance with his height and midfield ability. I expect some teams will like him as a defender, but I hope he goes somewhere that develops him on a wing. I won't pretend to be an expert on him though, need to go back and watch some of his last month.

Mutineer said:
Noah Long?
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Another who will likely have to make a career up forward, and he has gotten better in that regard as the season has gone on. Not one I've ever really found myself enamoured by.
 
Chris25 said:
It's getting to everyone's favourite time of the year - draft bolter season! And if you ever want proof of how we're all amateurs on here, watch the names Max Gruzewski and Edward Allan start to enter draft boards on the back of Twomey mentioning the late interest. Follow this tactic, and you too could be the next writer at ESPN.

To be fair, they have both had injury interrupted seasons. Ed Allan in particular showed signs last year and in his one game for WA this season. If he tests well, he'll be a genuine top 20 chance with his height and midfield ability. I expect some teams will like him as a defender, but I hope he goes somewhere that develops him on a wing. I won't pretend to be an expert on him though, need to go back and watch some of his last month.



Another who will likely have to make a career up forward, and he has gotten better in that regard as the season has gone on. Not one I've ever really found myself enamoured by.
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Yep, first it Reuben Ginbey about 4 months ago, then Ed Allan about a month ago, now it's Kaleb Smith (EF) who is bolting late and he is exciting. Bit of a buzz around him in WA now. Difficult to make a judgement on PSA kids until they play a couple of colts games back to back. I've seen Smith four times this year. That's all he's played - but with PSA done with - he's played the last two weeks and I'm convinced. I moved him up to nine on the WA 2022 list.
 
Futbolista said:
Yep, first it Reuben Ginbey about 4 months ago, then Ed Allan about a month ago, now it's Kaleb Smith (EF) who is bolting late and he is exciting. Bit of a buzz around him in WA now. Difficult to make a judgement on PSA kids until they play a couple of colts games back to back. I've seen Smith four times this year. That's all he's played - but with PSA done with - he's played the last two weeks and I'm convinced. I moved him up to nine on the WA 2022 list.
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I don't think Ginbey is too much of a surprise, he's at least been climbing on the back of a solid season. I'm not sure I'd be taking him top 10 though, but I'd be more than happy later in the first round. I've heard a bit about Kaleb Smith throughout the season, seems a few clubs were interested late draft. I just haven't gotten to see him.

One thing WA does well is get stories about their kids out. Someone like Smith is likely to be a late pick still, but his coach has been able to drum up some media attention. Certainly doesn't hurt.
 
bone2468 said:
Hey Chris, if fremantle lose Lobb, I’d much prefer us to stay away from Jackson and keep meek and go to the draft and pick Lemmey what’s your thoughts on him
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If you're looking at a ruck Will Verrall late/rookie would be well worth a look, has also shown a bit forward from limited opportunities when returning from injury earlier in the season.

If it's a tall forward that can chop out in ruck Phoenix Foster is definitely worth a good look late/rookie IMO.
 
bone2468 said:
Hey Chris, if fremantle lose Lobb, I’d much prefer us to stay away from Jackson and keep meek and go to the draft and pick Lemmey what’s your thoughts on him
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Few things to cover here...

Firstly, I still don't understand why Fremantle fans are trying to talk themselves out of Luke Jackson. He's not the complete product yet, and yes there are still questions over what exactly his best role is. I get Fremantle fans are nervous about big name trades, but the simple fact is that all 18 teams would love to have him - and 17 teams would trade multiple firsts for him. This isn't a Fremantle of old thing.

As for Lloyd Meek, yes I would much prefer to keep him. He's an AFL starting quality ruck. But you can't blame him if he requests a trade with Jackson coming on board. Guess it's better to trade him when he's contracted.

In regards to the draft, I'm bigger than most on Harry Lemmey and I've written about him a bit in this thread - there's probably a bit of blind faith in there. It's concerning he wasn't able to fight through the difficulties he had this year and come out on top, but his talent hasn't just disappeared. I still think he could be a very good CHF, perhaps an even better KPD. I suspect he's a second round pick at the earliest, probably pick 30 onwards and perhaps much later. But I'd take him, and would fit well with our list - regardless of whether we get Jackson.

Otherwise, it's actually not a bad year to let Meek go and bring in a replacement (if Jackson comes). Harry Barnett looks like a fringe first rounder, athletic ruck and KPP potential. Max Knobel is a raw 204cm ruck, decent around the ground and a good mark. Will Verrall looks good, Jackson Broadbent from WA is someone both us and West Coast will no doubt look at and should be available later than expected. While I think Hudson O'Keeffe from Vic Metro is the best pure ruck on offer.

The only other things I would consider if we didn't get Jackson, would be to investigate packaging up picks for a swing at Aaron Cadman (very very unlikely) or drafting Isaac Keeler and developing him as a similar ruck/forward/midfielder.
 

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Chris25 said:
Few things to cover here...

Firstly, I still don't understand why Fremantle fans are trying to talk themselves out of Luke Jackson. He's not the complete product yet, and yes there are still questions over what exactly his best role is. I get Fremantle fans are nervous about big name trades, but the simple fact is that all 18 teams would love to have him - and 17 teams would trade multiple firsts for him. This isn't a Fremantle of old thing.

As for Lloyd Meek, yes I would much prefer to keep him. He's an AFL starting quality ruck. But you can't blame him if he requests a trade with Jackson coming on board. Guess it's better to trade him when he's contracted.

In regards to the draft, I'm bigger than most on Harry Lemmey and I've written about him a bit in this thread - there's probably a bit of blind faith in there. It's concerning he wasn't able to fight through the difficulties he had this year and come out on top, but his talent hasn't just disappeared. I still think he could be a very good CHF, perhaps an even better KPD. I suspect he's a second round pick at the earliest, probably pick 30 onwards and perhaps much later. But I'd take him, and would fit well with our list - regardless of whether we get Jackson.

Otherwise, it's actually not a bad year to let Meek go and bring in a replacement (if Jackson comes). Harry Barnett looks like a fringe first rounder, athletic ruck and KPP potential. Max Knobel is a raw 204cm ruck, decent around the ground and a good mark. Will Verrall looks good, Jackson Broadbent from WA is someone both us and West Coast will no doubt look at and should be available later than expected. While I think Hudson O'Keeffe from Vic Metro is the best pure ruck on offer.

The only other things I would consider if we didn't get Jackson, would be to investigate packaging up picks for a swing at Aaron Cadman (very very unlikely) or drafting Isaac Keeler and developing him as a similar ruck/forward/midfielder.
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I saw on the EagleNation FB page that O'Keeffe is originally from WA and still has family there.
 
As we head into trade week, there's already been talk of it being a weak draft and teams preferring picks next year. I do think this is something we hear every year. But it's probably not without some merit...

Looking at my big board in the opening post, I honestly wouldn't be shocked by about 50% of them missing out. A couple I have pretty high and would consider it surprising, but not enough to have me questioning life. Recent trend has already been less new players being drafted, seems like that will only continue.
 
Chris25 said:
As we head into trade week, there's already been talk of it being a weak draft and teams preferring picks next year. I do think this is something we hear every year. But it's probably not without some merit...

Looking at my big board in the opening post, I honestly wouldn't be shocked by about 50% of them missing out. A couple I have pretty high and would consider it surprising, but not enough to have me questioning life. Recent trend has already been less new players being drafted, seems like that will only continue.
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Because you got 50% wrong doesn’t mean draft is week. You like most had limited footy over the previous 2.5yrs.
I know several recruiters and they are more than happy with this draft. Plenty of evenness about it. While maybe not as much top end.
Sit back and judge in 5yrs maybe a bit longer.
 
PocketRocket08 said:
Because you got 50% wrong doesn’t mean draft is week. You like most had limited footy over the previous 2.5yrs.
I know several recruiters and they are more than happy with this draft. Plenty of evenness about it. While maybe not as much top end.
Sit back and judge in 5yrs maybe a bit longer.
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Typically when recruiters are happy it’s because the draft is indeed even. And they think they can get a bargain. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s strong.

If anything, I’m advocating that the draft isn’t that bad - because I think players I like potentially won’t even get drafted. Thats to be expected though, given there might be less draftees than I have big board spots.

But if half my board does go undrafted, it’s the clubs who were wrong. Not me
 
Chris, have loved your work for years, wondering where Tom Scully finally fits into this years draft? Touted top 20 at one point, now scraping onto a national draft possibility, curious to hear your thoughts on how his year panned out and if you see a role for him at AFL level?
 
Yoda_ said:
Chris, have loved your work for years, wondering where Tom Scully finally fits into this years draft? Touted top 20 at one point, now scraping onto a national draft possibility, curious to hear your thoughts on how his year panned out and if you see a role for him at AFL level?
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The early season projections were very much optimistic, but I do think valid. If his start to the U18 season carried over with SA and into the reserves, first round and even top 10 wouldn’t have been out of the picture.

But I think it was more his limitations that started to show as the season progressed. He still did the deepest forward role well, but there was limited versatility. He never really got a run in the ruck at Westies, he didn’t really leave the forward 50 very much at all. I think Scully himself has mentioned Rory Lobb as someone he looks to, but a lot of his value is as a second ruck. Same goes for someone like Mason Cox. I’m not sure Scully is a true #1 KPF. And I think a lot of the reason he didn’t play much with SA was positional fit and how his role fit in with the other guys they had.

A lot of the critique has been how will he go against bigger and stronger opposition, but that’s not really his fault - and he did just fine at reserves level when given the chance. He’ll get stronger and he’s a decent enough athlete and good at ground level, so I don’t have any issues with how well he’ll be able to compete.

Personally, I think being 200cm+ is overrated for KPPs. There’s not exactly a lot of great ones, and most take time to develop. I’d rather a stronger well rounded 195cm KPF than someone who can take a mark at 205cm.

Ultimately, I have Scully at #50 at the moment. I think clubs would ideally get him through to the rookie list where he can develop for a couple of years, but I suspect someone will secure him in the third or fourth rounds. And I do think there’s a role for him as a #2 KPF, alongside more of a leading forward - especially if he can add relief ruck work to his game. But he’ll take time.
 
bone2468 said:
Haven’t heard of him gimme more deets please
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Very athletic ruckman who at some stages covers the ground like an extra mid running up and down the ground and getting involved in handball chains. Can take big big pack marks also as he has a serious leap. Upside is huge but like too many of the SA talls this year there is way too big a gap between his best and his worst. On talent alone he could be as high as top ten as it is I think mid second round onwards is probably where he sits. Although with his athletic attributes a club could reach but they don't tend to do that with ruckman.
 
Hey Chris25 if you were picking in the 60s and onwards range, and looking for a crafty small, a centre square mid and a KPD, who would you be crossing your fingers makes it all the way through to the back end of the draft?

I'd be pretty happy with a Lovelock, Magor, Van Es trio myself, but keen to hear your thoughts.
 
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