Rumour 2022 Draft Rumours

[PMBangers]

Strategy - Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

www.bigfooty.com

Consider posting your hypothetical Pick swaps, or opinions on what's fair, in the linked thread instead! That way, you can discuss in the proper space and this thread can remain more on topic

rumour (n)​

1. information, often a mixture of truth and untruth, passed around verbally
2. gossip or hearsay

 

[eaglespremiers]

Ashcroft is a lot better player then Tsatas

I didn't say anything about Tsatas, and I rate them similarly.
Parish still seems like an apt comparison to Ashcroft.
I would prefer Mackenzie to both.

 

[Taylor]

Having 3 first rounders next year will put them in a powerful position in next years draft. They can either be used as assets during trade week or bargaining power on draft night. Those picks might help them nab a player like Harley Reid next year, you never know.

There’s good players drafted in the teens every year btw, poor argument to say that you just get b graders picking in that range. Could easily pick paddy dow at pick 3 or Zach Bailey at 15.

You could, but Essendon currently hold the pick at the pointy end of the draft where the best players will be taken.

It's entirely reasonable to prefer a top five pick over multiple later picks because the talent isn't the same 1-5 as it is even 10-20.

You will have a hard time finding enough fast, hard running, elite kicking midfielders to fill a top five let alone reach the second half of the first round. All those elite attributes fall off the options really fast and you start needing to compromise on picking guys with flaws, significant flaws and risks.

I think it's even chance to pick a gun at #4 as it will be to find one with three goes between ten and twenty and you can't turn those three players into the guy taken at pick #4 by playing them cumulatively.

 

[Taylor]

I think we need some soldiers, if Parish goes next year, we get 2 stars plus 3 b graders I'd be happy

That's a reasonable position. Being able to pick for needs, like GWS back when they started, could help in a rebuild.

It won't be a happy time to be a Bombers fan though?

 

[Keystone agony]

There's less guarantees with picks outside the top ten. Hoping that a top five pick turns into a selection outside the top ten and maybe another top ten pick is dangerous.

Clubs only get to put 18 guys on the field at once so each position needs to be the best player possible, you'll get more chance of that player winning that match up with the attributes available in players in the top five names called. I don't think the difference between a pick #15 and a pick #22 is as much as the top five to top ten to top fifteen is.

Essendon will make that call, it might prefer three B grade footballers over one A grade match winner. That's purely hyperbolic but that's where my argument is.

You'd prefer one Dustin Martin over three other picks in the teens praying one of them is Nathan Fyfe.

We might just get Dangerfield, Cripps and Fyfe

 

[andleanback]

You could, but Essendon currently hold the pick at the pointy end of the draft where the best players will be taken.

It's entirely reasonable to prefer a top five pick over multiple later picks because the talent isn't the same 1-5 as it is even 10-20.

You will have a hard time finding enough fast, hard running, elite kicking midfielders to fill a top five let alone reach the second half of the first round. All those elite attributes fall off the options really fast and you start needing to compromise on picking guys with flaws, significant flaws and risks.

I think it's even chance to pick a gun at #4 as it will be to find one with three goes between ten and twenty and you can't turn those three players into the guy taken at pick #4 by playing them cumulatively.

Correct but the top end of this draft isn’t what the elite has been of other years. Eye of the beholder for a few of them. It’s not like 2018 where the top 7 knew they were getting rolled gold talent. It’s a lot of midfielders this year and a pretty even group, who is the say a player like Ollie Hollands won’t turn out to be better than Humphrey or tsatas, or McKenzie being better than wardlaw. Even cadman isn’t even the top 3/4 players on most draft boards.

 

[Taylor]

We might just get Dangerfield, Cripps and Fyfe

These are the players taken directly before and after those three:
Ben McEvoy (Danger) Patrick Veszpremi
Ben Lennon (Cripps) Cam McCarthy
Ben Griffiths (Fyfe) Ryan Bastinac

You'd need to pick the eyes out of the draft like Legolas and Hawkeye had a lovechild.

 

[Milanista28]

Shouldn't the fact that all these clubs with proven good recruiting records (Melbourne, Footscray & Sydney) wanting to secure the Bombers Pick 4, be a good justification as to why not to trade it...

True, but...

 

[Taylor]

Correct but the top end of this draft isn’t what the elite has been of other years. Eye of the beholder for a few of them. It’s not like 2018 where the top 7 knew they were getting rolled gold talent. It’s a lot of midfielders this year and a pretty even group, who is the say a player like Ollie Hollands won’t turn out to be better than Humphrey or tsatas, or McKenzie being better than wardlaw. Even cadman isn’t even the top 3/4 players on most draft boards.

Essendon like all clubs will have a list of the 2022 and 2023 draftees ranked as if they are a single draft.

If the player available at pick #4 this year isn't rated that highly against the others then they'll pull the trigger. I suspect that the top five this year are still going to be higher than the players outside the top ten next draft.

 

[Psicosis]

Not necessarily, Melbourne already have a good group of players and don't need to add bulk talent to the list.

Teams like North, Essendon or Hawthorn need multiple talented kids just as much as they need a single high-end talent.

The key difference between talent & high-end talent, is that the latter is extremely difficult to get.

 

[11kgm]

That's a reasonable position. Being able to pick for needs, like GWS back when they started, could help in a rebuild.

It won't be a happy time to be a Bombers fan though?

I think we need to rebuild, no more short-term bringing in players like Shiel, Stringer, Smith

Turn over some of the deadwood and add 5 quality kids and Davey x 2 and hopefully Munkara

Not a bad two years for the club

 

[11kgm]

I didn't say anything about Tsatas, and I rate them similarly.
Parish still seems like an apt comparison to Ashcroft.
I would prefer Mackenzie to both.

I do rate Mackenzie i love the leadership, two ways running and his defensive mindset

 

[owen87]

The key difference between talent & high-end talent, is that the latter is extremely difficult to get.

Sort of true, the higher a pick the more likely, but Pick 1 is rarely the best player in the draft so for a team needing multiple good players there's a reasonable argument that multiple selections give a higher chance of a superstar than a single selection.

Whoever goes at EFC's pick might be a bust whilst the superstar comes from a pick in the teens.

 

[Milanista28]

I think we need to rebuild, no more short-term bringing in players like Shiel, Stringer, Smith

Turn over some of the deadwood and add 5 quality kids and Davey x 2 and hopefully Munkara

Not a bad two years for the club

If we did this, Our 2020-2023 intake would be Cox, Perkins, Reid, Durham, Hobbs, Martin, Massimo, pick 11, Davey, Davey, Munkara, 4 maybe 5 picks inside 24 in 2023.

Big change up.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think the dogs offer is stronger than dees if no 22 involved

Essendon like all clubs will have a list of the 2022 and 2023 draftees ranked as if they are a single draft.

If the player available at pick #4 this year isn't rated that highly against the others then they'll pull the trigger. I suspect that the top five this year are still going to be higher than the players outside the top ten next draft.

The bookies who are the most accurate have freo and the dogs as 9th and 10th best sides, so every chance they get a top 10 pick albeit closer to 10 than 1

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Tsatas be like...

Probably off to geelong or st kilda.

 

[Doggy]

I think the dogs offer is stronger than dees if no 22 involved

The bookies who are the most accurate have freo and the dogs as 9th and 10th best sides, so every chance they get a top 10 pick albeit closer to 10 than 1

Ah yes.

The betting agencies have decided the 2023 premiership already. Probably no need to watch now

 

[Keystone agony]

Also if everyones taking Humphry at pick 4 (Essendon) then this could well occur

1. Cadman
2. Ashcroft
3. Sheezel North
4. Wardlaw North
5. Humphry Dogs/Dees
6. Ginbey Suns
7. C.Mckenzie Hawks
8. J.Clark Cats
9. Ed Allen WCE
10. Tsatas/Phillipou Saints
11. Tsatas/Hollands Blues
12. Phillipou/Tsatas/Hollands Essendon

 

[Keystone agony]

Ah yes.

The betting agencies have decided the 2023 premiership already. Probably no need to watch now

Not saying theyre 100% but there the clear best guide we have and are the most accurate

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Brisbanes future 1st is diluted though.
I dont think 11 and those 2 future 1sts gets 4 done but they can try.

 

[andleanback]

Brisbanes future 1st is diluted though.
I dont think 11 and those 2 future 1sts gets 4 done but they can try.

Diluted?

 

[Keystone agony]

Brisbanes future 1st is diluted though.
I dont think 11 and those 2 future 1sts gets 4 done but they can try.

What do you mean diluted?

 

[11kgm]

If we did this, Our 2020-2023 intake would be Cox, Perkins, Reid, Durham, Hobbs, Martin, Massimo, pick 11, Davey, Davey, Munkara, 4 maybe 5 picks inside 24 in 2023.

Big change up.

It is needed, Stewart/Parish/Heppell could all be leaving next year plus some other speculative picks could be on the way out

 

[The Inbetweener]

Brisbanes future 1st is diluted though.
I dont think 11 and those 2 future 1sts gets 4 done but they can try.

Nah it’s not. Once it’s traded to us their deficit comes off their next pick next year (37)

 

[giantroo]

 

[Warwick]

I see only Hawks with the picks to give extra 200 points for Lions but none of the Phantom's mention this & just dump Hawks last 2-3 picks off
.
Given lions don't have a F1, they can only trade one of their F3(melb) or F3(WB). Their F2 & F4 is from top clubs, so no one is swapping for those and giving picks early in the night. Roos are reported to be likely to trade their pick 40 for one of the F3's

Hawks can trade 41,48,50,52( 1235 pts) for 35 & 36 ( 1024 pts)

There is a pickle with trading 48 back, but we can unravel it by trading our 48,52,63 for Crows 46,56,59( gain 5 pts extra) and then send 41,46,50,56 for 35 & 36.

Lions should have 34,38,40,41,46,50,55,56 and likely have to use only the top 5 or 6 of those picks for Ashcroft. That will then bump 50,55,56 to 5 spots up as well gaining xtra points before Fletcher is bid on.

So we will need to find another two list spots?

Will Ashcroft is Parish 2.0

What did you think of his VFL games?

Terrible comparison. Screams of someone who hasn't watched him play.