Conspiracy Theory The Russia-Ukraine War

Historically, Russia just throw men at the problem and generally re-assess when they get to the 500,000 casualty mark.
It's going to be a long and awful conflict for as long as Putin survives.
 
Historically, Russia just throw men at the problem and generally re-assess when they get to the 500,000 casualty mark.
It's going to be a long and awful conflict for as long as Putin survives.
As clumsy as Russia has been, they can still win this war and their victory condition is easier to achieve than Ukraine's. Probably the quickest way this ends. Ukraine lacks the manpower to retake the occupied territories and Crimea.

I'm assuming the Russian victory condition is the conquest of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts, while not losing ground elsewhere.
 
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As clumsy as Russia has been, they can still win this war and their victory condition is easier to achieve than Ukraine's. Probably the quickest way this ends. Ukraine lacks the manpower to retake the occupied territories and Crimea.

I'm assuming the Russian victory condition is the conquest of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts, while not losing ground elsewhere.
Typically, the ratio to hold occupied territory is 7:1.
That's without considering the logistical problems of resupply, morale, troop rotation, etc.
If Russia do manage to take any significant swathes of Ukrainian land, it will turn into Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam - bloody guerrilla conflict that Russia will lose, perhaps after many years of trying. The high civilian casualties (even ignoring human rights abuses in border towns) mean there will be no 'hearts and mind' campaign, let alone as successful one. Then there's next winter to consider.

The Brits in Malaya are the only real historical precedent for subjugating a motivated populace, and that was a pretty brutal campaign which included 'shoot on sight' orders for anybody moving outside of curfew and the establishment of massive concentration camps.
That was a much smaller landmass as well, without a large network of resupply points on the opposite side of the front.
 

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Typically, the ratio to hold occupied territory is 7:1.
That's without considering the logistical problems of resupply, morale, troop rotation, etc.
If Russia do manage to take any significant swathes of Ukrainian land, it will turn into Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam - bloody guerrilla conflict that Russia will lose, perhaps after many years of trying. The high civilian casualties (even ignoring human rights abuses in border towns) mean there will be no 'hearts and mind' campaign, let alone as successful one. Then there's next winter to consider.

The Brits in Malaya are the only real historical precedent for subjugating a motivated populace, and that was a pretty brutal campaign which included 'shoot on sight' orders for anybody moving outside of curfew and the establishment of massive concentration camps.
That was a much smaller landmass as well, without a large network of resupply points on the opposite side of the front.

I would agree that Russia didn't have much fun in Afghanistan. There's a lot more support for them in Ukraine than there ever would have been in Afghanistan though.
 
I would agree that Russia didn't have much fun in Afghanistan. There's a lot more support for them in Ukraine than there ever would have been in Afghanistan though.
Mostly in the areas already controlled by the DPR and LPR. Advancing further west will be of minimal benefit to Russia and would take years at their current (glacial) rate of advance. They already have enough leverage at the negotiating table with their oil & gas suppliers and by holding on to the ground they've gained since the proper war started.
 
Mostly in the areas already controlled by the DPR and LPR. Advancing further west will be of minimal benefit to Russia and would take years at their current (glacial) rate of advance. They already have enough leverage at the negotiating table with their oil & gas suppliers and by holding on to the ground they've gained since the proper war started.
There is the risk that Russia will simply regroup and attack again at a later date if a peace deal is reached with current territorial boundaries.
Their dishonesty in the past means that it would take a huge leap of faith for Ukraine to trust any peace negotiation, even if Russia offered terms Ukraine would accept.
It's a shitshow with little prospect of peace in the near term. And as the thaw hits, it's likely that attacks will increase.
 
There is the risk that Russia will simply regroup and attack again at a later date if a peace deal is reached with current territorial boundaries.
Their dishonesty in the past means that it would take a huge leap of faith for Ukraine to trust any peace negotiation, even if Russia offered terms Ukraine would accept.
It's a shitshow with little prospect of peace in the near term. And as the thaw hits, it's likely that attacks will increase.
Yes, but Russia will point to the broken promises of NATO not expanding east. I think that expansion had more to do with weapons sales rather than intimidating Russia, but they've long been a paranoid country. Ukraine could've avoided this mess by joining CSTO 10 years ago :huh:
 
So Ukraine gets more western tanks, including the Abrams which I didn't expect. I thought the eastern NATO countries would empty their stocks of ex-Soviet tanks first. Anyway I look forward to some footage of tank on tank engagements:

 
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Yes, but Russia will point to the broken promises of NATO not expanding east. I think that expansion had more to do with weapons sales rather than intimidating Russia, but they've long been a paranoid country. Ukraine could've avoided this mess by joining CSTO 10 years ago :huh:

NATO excuse is laughable.

Right now Putin is moving military assets from Russia's newest NATO border area (Finland) to Ukraine in order to support the invasion.

If Putin actually really believed his NATO nosense he would be devoting assets to the NATO border with Finland.
 
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There are some big things in the works going on behind the scenes right now.

You will need to brush up on the Ukrainian State decree from Zelensky on 02/24/2022, the day the missile strikes began.

Zelensky ordered the Ukrainian MoD to destroy all State docs associated with Hunter Biden’s biolab company “METABIOTA and Battelle”.

Zelensky was trying to cover up their connection to Biden and the Biolabs.
 
NATO excuse is laughable.

Right now Putin is moving military assets from Russia's newest NATO border area (Finland) to Ukraine in order to support the invasion.

If Putin actually really believed his NATO nosense he would be devoting assets to the NATO border with Finland.
Finland hasn't officially joined NATO yet. As I've already pointed out, just looking at a map makes it plainly obvious that an invasion from that direction would be significantly hindered by the terrain. The region is riddled with lakes and swamps.

In an alternate universe, if there was a pro-Russia military alliance in south America, which expanded north and added central American countries, the US would be nervous too. Ironic how the most powerful countries can be the most paranoid.
 
Dec 22, 2009
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Finland hasn't officially joined NATO yet. As I've already pointed out, just looking at a map makes it plainly obvious that an invasion from that direction would be significantly hindered by the terrain. The region is riddled with lakes and swamps.

In an alternate universe, if there was a pro-Russia military alliance in south America, which expanded north and added central American countries, the US would be nervous too. Ironic how the most powerful countries can be the most paranoid.

Nicaragua and Cuba right now are pretty pro Russian nations right on the US's doorstep. The US has a border with Russia in the arctic circle. There are no attempts by the US to invade / attack those countries due to their pro-Russian allegiance.



Also, Cyprus has a heavy Russian involvement to the point when you visit the place there are Russian flags everywhere. This came about by Russia coming into to fund them instead of the EU. Cyprus is a former colony of Great Britain - still with an active United Kingdom military base.

You don't see the UK threatening Russia to leave their former colony in order to "protect" their interests in Cyprus.


Finland are joining NATO, that's well known. Considering USSR has invaded Finland before and seized territory (Keralia) from Finland - an invasion is very much possible in the opposite direction. Simply put if Putin actually feared NATO he would not be removing military assets from the area.
 
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Finland hasn't officially joined NATO yet. As I've already pointed out, just looking at a map makes it plainly obvious that an invasion from that direction would be significantly hindered by the terrain. The region is riddled with lakes and swamps.

In an alternate universe, if there was a pro-Russia military alliance in south America, which expanded north and added central American countries, the US would be nervous too. Ironic how the most powerful countries can be the most paranoid.

In this scenario is the US militarily invading Mexico?
 
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Finland hasn't officially joined NATO yet. As I've already pointed out, just looking at a map makes it plainly obvious that an invasion from that direction would be significantly hindered by the terrain. The region is riddled with lakes and swamps.
Invasion. Just lol :drunk:

I do love it how we're all supposed to acknowledge Russia's 'legitimate' concerns about a NATO ground invasion of their sovereign territory (the exact existential threat that would trigger a nuclear response) while at the same time we're assured that if Russia did happen to get Ukraine that'd be it, no further expansionist shenanigans would ever be entertained :rolleyes:

In an alternate universe, if there was a pro-Russia military alliance in south America, which expanded north and added central American countries, the US would be nervous too. Ironic how the most powerful countries can be the most paranoid.
In this alternate universe, the US would now be ground invading and seeking to annex Mexico would they? Yeeeeaah dunno about that.
 
In this scenario is the US militarily invading Mexico?
In this alternate universe, the US would now be ground invading and seeking to annex Mexico would they? Yeeeeaah dunno about that.
Not invading... conducting a "Special Military Operation" :p
 
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Invasion. Just lol :drunk:

I do love it how we're all supposed to acknowledge Russia's 'legitimate' concerns about a NATO ground invasion of their sovereign territory (the exact existential threat that would trigger a nuclear response) while at the same time we're assured that if Russia did happen to get Ukraine that'd be it, no further expansionist shenanigans would ever be entertained :rolleyes:


In this alternate universe, the US would now be ground invading and seeking to annex Mexico would they? Yeeeeaah dunno about that.

Veneuzela, Cuba, Nicargua & Mexico are a loosely pro Russian alliance. Mexico has ramped up trade with the Russians while large swathes of the rest of the world have sanctioned Russia.


The USS has no designs on invading Mexico even if it becomes an outright client state of Russia (like Nicaragua) as below:



Just not comparable at all, states that sympathise with Russia already surround the US and are simply not going to be invaded.



Simple facts of the matter is Putin & co are cold war dinosaur relics that are still obsessed with viewing the US as its direct rival. This is despite the fact that the US assisted Russia greatly in modernisation post USSR breakup.
 
Nicaragua and Cuba right now are pretty pro Russian nations right on the US's doorstep. The US has a border with Russia in the arctic circle. There are no attempts by the US to invade / attack those countries due to their pro-Russian allegiance.



Also, Cyprus has a heavy Russian involvement to the point when you visit the place there are Russian flags everywhere. This came about by Russia coming into to fund them instead of the EU. Cyprus is a former colony of Great Britain - still with an active United Kingdom military base.

You don't see the UK threatening Russia to leave their former colony in order to "protect" their interests in Cyprus.
The US has supported several coups in central/south America in the last century, while under much less threat. They can play dirty too.

Finland are joining NATO, that's well known. Considering USSR has invaded Finland before and seized territory (Keralia) from Finland - an invasion is very much possible in the opposite direction. Simply put if Putin actually feared NATO he would not be removing military assets from the area.

Turkey keeps finding excuses to deny Sweden and Finland entry into NATO. The latest was the Quran burning incident and they want such acts to be made illegal, even though you could get away with burning a Quran in most NATO countries. Is Putin blackmailing Erdogan? Sure seems so!
 
Dec 22, 2009
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The US has supported several coups in central/south America in the last century, while under much less threat. They can play dirty too.



Turkey keeps finding excuses to deny Sweden and Finland entry into NATO. The latest was the Quran burning incident and they want such acts to be made illegal, even though you could get away with burning a Quran in most NATO countries. Is Putin blackmailing Erdogan? Sure seems so!

Turkey have agreed in general to bring Finland / Sweden into NATO. Erdogan is just trying to extract as many favors as possible in the process.

It's happening.


As for the US, yes it did those things. But those days (and the USSR setting up client states all over the world) are done.

In 2023 an invasion is complety unacceptable for the purpose of empire expansion. Russia will be a bigger version of North Korea until it gives up on its fascist ideological invasion of Ukraine.

If the UK can manage to not invade a former colony (Cyprus) after the Russians move in right next to one of their most strategically important military bases the least Vlad can do is return the favor, leave Ukranians in peace and move on with the rest of the world.
 
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Dec 22, 2009
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Not invading... conducting a "Special Military Operation" :p

If you think about it the US has much more reasons to conduct a "special military operation" in Mexico than Russia's justification of a SMO in Ukraine which pretty much equates to we don't believe Ukraine is a real country or culture and we are just retaking what is ours with the supply of drugs from Mexican cartels killing thousands of Americans and causing untold social issues.


That aside, it won't even be a consideration by the Yanks!!
 
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