Who's closer to their next premiership: Carlton or Freo?

[2Knights]

Working nuclear fusion is closer.

 

[BarbieITFC]

Lazy is your response.

Freo's forward line is as thin as toilet paper and everyone know's it.

Feel free to list your best 7-8 forwards.

After Brayshaw, Jackson and Serong list your next best 10 players

That tells everthing that matters.

I'm betting you wont. Too lazy.

OK - I'll bite.

These guys have done a pretty good job of breaking down our team overall all positions - including forwards. Every AFL team's best 23 for '23: Fremantle Dockers

Clearly tall forwards is our biggest gap - but I'd argue our small forwards stack up well (Frederick, Switkowski and Schultz - plus Walters - although like Fyfe we can't base our potential on him playing well week in week out)

But - best 10 players beyond Brayshaw, Jackson and Serong

• Darcy - AA Squad, best ruck under the age of 25 in the comp
• Young - named in 22 Under 22 team last year - most commentators predicting full AA within 2-3 years
• Cox - only 24 and in AA squad last year
• Ryan - AA in 2020
• Pearce - 27, if fit one of the best three KPD in the league
• Switkowski - whether you think Champion Data is worth anything - he was rated elite as a small pressure forward last year
• Clark - named in 22 under 22 last year
• Frederick - in 22 under 22 squad last year
• Brodie - an exceptional year last year, let's see if he can back it up
• Schultz - 30 goals last year

And then throw a blanket over half a dozen youngsters who have already shown a lot of potential (and not the sort of Chesser potential that Eagles fans are hanging their hat on) - Chapman, Walker, O'Driscoll, Amiss, Treacy.

Not named Fyfe or Walters because who knows if they are still able to perform week after week. O'Meara may be - but to be honest he's not a player I've especially watched.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

OK - I'll bite.

These guys have done a pretty good job of breaking down our team overall all positions - including forwards. Every AFL team's best 23 for '23: Fremantle Dockers

Clearly tall forwards is our biggest gap - but I'd argue our small forwards stack up well (Frederick, Switkowski and Schultz - plus Walters - although like Fyfe we can't base our potential on him playing well week in week out)

But - best 10 players beyond Brayshaw, Jackson and Serong

• Darcy - AA Squad, best ruck under the age of 25 in the comp
• Young - named in 22 Under 22 team last year - most commentators predicting full AA within 2-3 years
• Cox - only 24 and in AA squad last year
• Ryan - AA in 2020
• Pearce - 27, if fit one of the best three KPD in the league
• Switkowski - whether you think Champion Data is worth anything - he was rated elite as a small pressure forward last year
• Clark - named in 22 under 22 last year
• Frederick - in 22 under 22 squad last year
• Brodie - an exceptional year last year, let's see if he can back it up
• Schultz - 30 goals last year

And then throw a blanket over half a dozen youngsters who have already shown a lot of potential (and not the sort of Chesser potential that Eagles fans are hanging their hat on) - Chapman, Walker, O'Driscoll, Amiss, Treacy.

Not named Fyfe or Walters because who knows if they are still able to perform week after week. O'Meara may be - but to be honest he's not a player I've especially watched.

Freo have a great list. You don’t need to make things up to prove a point.

Have not seen anyone predict Hayden Young to be AA in 2 years let alone “most commentators”. Pearce a great defender but nowhere near top 3 KPD in the comp.

Just let their achievements do the talking when they come.

 

[Ceehook]

don't see a lot of Freo games last year
but think both sides are tracking upwards

Carlton by virtue of their history will attract a lot of media attention and can see that pressure driving them forward
also respect Voss and think he will be very driven and well placed to make a real good fist of coaching this time round

Freo have certainly got a buzz going over in the west and have a great brand of footy going , with a potentially deep list

Fairly important for both the play finals this year to keep the momentum going

The Blues loss in the last game , it was more than a mini final , it was a super hot game and to go so close could set them up for this year

So I'll go an edge in metal toughness for the Blues will get them there first over Freo who have a great list and play with a great to watch freedom

 

[WilloTree]

OK - I'll bite.

These guys have done a pretty good job of breaking down our team overall all positions - including forwards. Every AFL team's best 23 for '23: Fremantle Dockers

Clearly tall forwards is our biggest gap - but I'd argue our small forwards stack up well (Frederick, Switkowski and Schultz - plus Walters - although like Fyfe we can't base our potential on him playing well week in week out)

But - best 10 players beyond Brayshaw, Jackson and Serong

• Darcy - AA Squad, best ruck under the age of 25 in the comp
• Young - named in 22 Under 22 team last year - most commentators predicting full AA within 2-3 years
• Cox - only 24 and in AA squad last year
• Ryan - AA in 2020
• Pearce - 27, if fit one of the best three KPD in the league
• Switkowski - whether you think Champion Data is worth anything - he was rated elite as a small pressure forward last year
• Clark - named in 22 under 22 last year
• Frederick - in 22 under 22 squad last year
• Brodie - an exceptional year last year, let's see if he can back it up
• Schultz - 30 goals last year

And then throw a blanket over half a dozen youngsters who have already shown a lot of potential (and not the sort of Chesser potential that Eagles fans are hanging their hat on) - Chapman, Walker, O'Driscoll, Amiss, Treacy.

Not named Fyfe or Walters because who knows if they are still able to perform week after week. O'Meara may be - but to be honest he's not a player I've especially watched.

Yep - this looks spot on to me.

I like how we aren't just riding on the Fyfe-Walters shoulders.

Handy. Great call on Pearce as well. Massively underrated over east.

 

[Obeanie1]

OK - I'll bite.

These guys have done a pretty good job of breaking down our team overall all positions - including forwards. Every AFL team's best 23 for '23: Fremantle Dockers

Clearly tall forwards is our biggest gap - but I'd argue our small forwards stack up well (Frederick, Switkowski and Schultz - plus Walters - although like Fyfe we can't base our potential on him playing well week in week out)

But - best 10 players beyond Brayshaw, Jackson and Serong

• Darcy - AA Squad, best ruck under the age of 25 in the comp
• Young - named in 22 Under 22 team last year - most commentators predicting full AA within 2-3 years
• Cox - only 24 and in AA squad last year
• Ryan - AA in 2020
• Pearce - 27, if fit one of the best three KPD in the league
• Switkowski - whether you think Champion Data is worth anything - he was rated elite as a small pressure forward last year
• Clark - named in 22 under 22 last year
• Frederick - in 22 under 22 squad last year
• Brodie - an exceptional year last year, let's see if he can back it up
• Schultz - 30 goals last year

And then throw a blanket over half a dozen youngsters who have already shown a lot of potential (and not the sort of Chesser potential that Eagles fans are hanging their hat on) - Chapman, Walker, O'Driscoll, Amiss, Treacy.

Not named Fyfe or Walters because who knows if they are still able to perform week after week. O'Meara may be - but to be honest he's not a player I've especially watched.

Agree with everything posted here.

Freo's small forwards are pretty good. Very quick.

And we agree the kp forwards are the weakest part of e current list.

The point I was making comparing the top 13-15 players was the Eagles are only 2-3 drafts behind where Freo currently are. In the wrong thread I do admitt.

And Freo played finals last season.

In 2025 it's not a stretch to see the Eagles finish similar to where Freo did last season. That's my point.

 

[BarbieITFC]

Agree with everything posted here.

Freo's small forwards are pretty good. Very quick.

And we agree the kp forwards are the weakest part of e current list.

The point I was making comparing the top 13-15 players was the Eagles are only 2-3 drafts behind where Freo currently are. In the wrong thread I do admitt.

And Freo played finals last season.

In 2025 it's not a stretch to see the Eagles finish similar to where Freo did last season. That's my point.

Maybe - but my question to you is if you’re contending in 2015 - how was your 2019 or 2020 draft?

Because our season last year was built on the foundations of our 2016 and 2017 drafts.

• Darcy, Ryan, Cox and Logue (2016)
• Brayshaw and Brodie (connected to the Cerra trade)

That’s the core of our defence and midfield right there in two drafts that were 5/6 years before.

Do you see the nucleus of your next spine from the 19/20 drafts? Do they have 35+ games under their belt already??

Fact is it took us six years from the cliff to be back - so for the Eagles 2028 is a much more realistic timeframe - because your 2022 draft feels most comparable to our 2016 draft (for what it’s worth I think your 2022 draft could be a beauty).

 

[Joao]

Agree with everything posted here.

Freo's small forwards are pretty good. Very quick.

And we agree the kp forwards are the weakest part of e current list.

The point I was making comparing the top 13-15 players was the Eagles are only 2-3 drafts behind where Freo currently are. In the wrong thread I do admitt.

And Freo played finals last season.

In 2025 it's not a stretch to see the Eagles finish similar to where Freo did last season. That's my point.

Your not trolling, you actually believe what you said. My apologies.

Interesting that you chose this thread but what I find most interesting is that if you list your 13 (what an arbitrary number) best players (not in order), these are the ages of them today:
Gaff 30
Yeo 29
NicNat 32
Kelly 28
Shuey 32
McGovern 30
Hurn 35
Darling 30
Barrass 27
Ryan 26
Sheed 27
Allen 23
Duggan 26

By your Pearce metric, anyone 27 or older is a write-off so that leaves

Ryan
Allen
Duggan

That will be your Fyfe, Mundy, Walters "carrying" your youngsters to finals in 2 years, even though 2 of them will be 27+ and hence have their best behind them.

Who are your good young players? I assume you have penned in your last 3 first rounders as stars - fair enough, most supporters do this. So we have (with their current games played):

Chesser 0
Ginbey 0
Hewitt 0

So we have 12 of your current best 13 retired or past their best (by your definition) and 3 zero gamers taking you to the promise land in 2 years?


Fair to say I think the only people giving your post likes will be West Coast fans.

 

[Obeanie1]

Your not trolling, you actually believe what you said. My apologies.

Interesting that you chose this thread but what I find most interesting is that if you list your 13 (what an arbitrary number) best players (not in order), these are the ages of them today:
Gaff 30
Yeo 29
NicNat 32
Kelly 28
Shuey 32
McGovern 30
Hurn 35
Darling 30
Barrass 27
Ryan 26
Sheed 27
Allen 23
Duggan 26

By your Pearce metric, anyone 27 or older is a write-off so that leaves

Ryan
Allen
Duggan

That will be your Fyfe, Mundy, Walters "carrying" your youngsters to finals in 2 years, even though 2 of them will be 27+ and hence have their best behind them.

Who are your good young players? I assume you have penned in your last 3 first rounders as stars - fair enough, most supporters do this. So we have (with their current games played):

Chesser 0
Ginbey 0
Hewitt 0

So we have 12 of your current best 13 retired or past their best (by your definition) and 3 zero gamers taking you to the promise land in 2 years?


Fair to say I think the only people giving your post likes will be West Coast fans.

Firstly I deliberatly compared Shuey, Gaff to Fyfe and O'Mera due to age. The point there being all four are past their best.

Arrive at the promised land in 2 years? I didnt say that.

I said in 2025 Eagles will be close to where Freo is now. Contesting finals and building finals experience.

Spend 2026 and 27 moving up into top 4 contension. 2028 would be 10 years since the last flag, right on average.

Anyway wrong thread.

 

[Joao]

Firstly I deliberatly compared Shuey, Gaff to Fyfe and O'Mera due to age. The point there being all four are past their best.

Arrive at the promised land in 2 years? I didnt say that.

I said in 2025 Eagles will be close to where Freo is now. Contesting finals and building finals experience.

Spend 2026 and 27 moving up into top 4 contension. 2028 would be 10 years since the last flag, right on average.

Anyway wrong thread.

First of all, 27/28 is not typical "past your best" age. We just watched a Geelong team with an average age of 28 romp in a flag so I think its impossible to argue that point. I would say the consensus peak happens 26-31 or so. So JOM, Pearce, Yeo, Barass etc are (injury permitting) just fine for the next couple of years, possibly longer even if not at their peak.

I think you are more likely to play finals this year than 2025. At least in 2023 you have those 13 players of whom a decent proportion will play good footy. The only one of them likely to get a lot better by 2025 is Allen and several are likely to retire or decline as they pass 31. I don't think you'll be a meaningful finals aspirant until you get ~15 young players in 40-100 games which is more like 2027.

 

[RonnieRaven]

I disagree that Pearce is past his best, but perhaps there are durability concerns.

JOM is a reasonable replacement for Mundy, but I agree that Walters and Fyfe are past their best, but can still turn a game. Taberner is also a concern now with his durability

I don't see them as top 4, but should make the 8 if their depth isn't tested.

Of course Fyfe is past his best.
He was the best player in the comp in 2014,2015.
Hard to reach those heights again.
A fit and hungry Fyfe can still be a top 50 player in the comp

 

[Arr0w]

Of course Fyfe is past his best.
He was the best player in the comp in 2014,2015.
Hard to reach those heights again.
A fit and hungry Fyfe can still be a top 50 player in the comp

Not a criticism, just fact, like many players of his type and age. He has only played more than 15 games once in the last 5 years, so staying fit all year would go against the grain

 

[Juddernaut08]

Question: Who's closer to a flag - Carlton or Freo?

Answer: WCE may play finals in 2025.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Not a criticism, just fact, like many players of his type and age. He has only played more than 15 games once in the last 5 years, so staying fit all year would go against the grain

Yet acres is judged on his first 20 game season in his 9th season not the 8 injury plagued seasons before.
Cool

 

[Arr0w]

Yet acres is judged on his first 20 game season in his 9th season not the 8 injury plagued seasons before.
Cool

Not taking about Acres, who has played 18+ games, 3 of the last 4 years, talking about Fyfe who has played 1 season in the last 5 years of more than 15 games and is 31 not 27

We also have a fair number of injury prone players, and I very much doubt we get all of them on the park for the majority of the year

That's the brutal realities

 

[Square Peg]

The general expectations around the club, and talk from hard head insiders that seem to be in the know unlike most of us that speak from our hearts, is that Freo are so very close. I obviously have no knowledge of what similar hard head Carlton insiders are saying, and I personally have my lingering doubts about both teams, but I love what I am hearing from club people that are usually trying to dampen down our purple dreams

 

[ep2018]

Fremantle. Carlton are a year behind as they haven't had a finals series yet as a group but freo did this past season.

 

[Arr0w]

Fremantle. Carlton are a year behind as they haven't had a finals series yet as a group but freo did this past season.

Means little

GWS and Essendon made finals in 2011 then fell out, not to say the Dockers will follow a similar course

Personally think the Dockers prime years as a core is 2025-26, but should still play finals next 2 years

 

[PerthblueGold]

Your not trolling, you actually believe what you said. My apologies.

Interesting that you chose this thread but what I find most interesting is that if you list your 13 (what an arbitrary number) best players (not in order), these are the ages of them today:
Gaff 30
Yeo 29
NicNat 32
Kelly 28
Shuey 32
McGovern 30
Hurn 35
Darling 30
Barrass 27
Ryan 26
Sheed 27
Allen 23
Duggan 26

By your Pearce metric, anyone 27 or older is a write-off so that leaves

Ryan
Allen
Duggan

That will be your Fyfe, Mundy, Walters "carrying" your youngsters to finals in 2 years, even though 2 of them will be 27+ and hence have their best behind them.

Who are your good young players? I assume you have penned in your last 3 first rounders as stars - fair enough, most supporters do this. So we have (with their current games played):

Chesser 0
Ginbey 0
Hewitt 0

So we have 12 of your current best 13 retired or past their best (by your definition) and 3 zero gamers taking you to the promise land in 2 years?


Fair to say I think the only people giving your post likes will be West Coast fans.

Eagles will win another flag before FFC get one

 

[Goomba1973]

Saw this comparison from Ross Lyon on Footy Classified:



On the 2020 ladder these two teams were separated by 0.6%. On game-day 4 points in an after-the-siren shot where a free kick was given to the wrong player ten metres closer to goal.

Is one team actually closer to a flag than the other, and is the margin significant?

The Ross Lyon Bridesmaid factor must be considered as significant .... so Freo is closer .

 

[Obeanie1]

First of all, 27/28 is not typical "past your best" age. We just watched a Geelong team with an average age of 28 romp in a flag so I think its impossible to argue that point. I would say the consensus peak happens 26-31 or so. So JOM, Pearce, Yeo, Barass etc are (injury permitting) just fine for the next couple of years, possibly longer even if not at their peak.

I think you are more likely to play finals this year than 2025. At least in 2023 you have those 13 players of whom a decent proportion will play good footy. The only one of them likely to get a lot better by 2025 is Allen and several are likely to retire or decline as they pass 31. I don't think you'll be a meaningful finals aspirant until you get ~15 young players in 40-100 games which is more like 2027.

Fyfe, Walters, Shuey and Gaff are all over 30.

I believed Pearce was over 30 but was corrected as he is 27, like Barrass. Both could have their best ahead of them.

All have played their entire careers in WA clocking up the flying hours.

Which over 30's WA club players do you think have their best footy ahead of them?

Geelong are proving just how big an advantage they have being a country based AFL club in Melbourne. Low cost of living, best of both worlds country living with a big city an hour down the road and limited travel compared to interstate teams.

 

[Mesc]

Eagles will win another flag before FFC get one

So there !

 

[Joao]

Fyfe, Walters, Shuey and Gaff are all over 30.

I believed Pearce was over 30 but was corrected as he is 27, like Barrass. Both could have their best ahead of them.

All have played their entire careers in WA clocking up the flying hours.

Which over 30's WA club players do you think have their best footy ahead of them?

Geelong are proving just how big an advantage they have being a country based AFL club in Melbourne. Low cost of living, best of both worlds country living with a big city an hour down the road and limited travel compared to interstate teams.

None of the 30+ but of those I mentioned, Pearce, JOM and Barrass could output more than they have in the past. Yeo probably could too if he was ever 100% fit again. My guess is Barrass and Pearce are close to their peaks and JOM will play a similar level but the stats will be better as he is in a better team.

Geelong's geography in no way allows their players to peak longer of for later than any other club. You might be able to argue travel over us but I am not sure if there is any data to back that up.

 

[WillHayward]

Freo have ended up with picks 3,7,8 and 9 from the 2019 draft.
Some haul.

The big unknown is whether Jackson can make it as a key fwd.

If he ends up as just a serviceable second ruckman then they have paid way overs.

 

[Sean_09]

Freo have ended up with pixks 3,7,8 and 9 from the 2019 draft.
Some haul.

The big unknown is whether Jackson can make it as a key fwd.

If he ends up as just a serviceable second ruxkman then they have paid way overs.

Worst case lets Darcy play more forward and he's shown some real forward craft for a 24yr old Ruck. Both offer different skill sets, hopefully they'll compliment well.