Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest pla


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Noidnadroj

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 8, 2020
5,791
19,533
AFL Club
Richmond
'An entire season'.

He's been rated in the top handful of players in the competition for 4 years and you're comparing him to players like Ablett, Franklin and Judd who have been regarded as the top 2 to 3 players in the competition consistently over a decade?!?

And what about the finals he didn't dominate? Oh that's right, he was either young, injured or they didn't count because they weren't required to win to eventuate in a premiership.

Wowee.

When being adjudged BOG in 9 x finals over 4-years, winning 3 x finals MVP’s and 3 x Norm Smiths isn’t enough on your finals resume, you know someone is impossible to please and being deliberately mischievous. Kudos to you Fadge. But in fairness, you’re probably not that familiar with what finals dominance looks like.


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Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,869
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When being adjudged BOG in 9 x finals over 4-years, winning 3 x finals MVP’s and 3 x Norm Smiths isn’t enough on your finals resume, you know someone is impossible to please and being deliberately mischievous. Kudos to you Fadge. But in fairness, you’re probably not that familiar with what finals dominance looks like.
Which 9 finals was he BOG in?

I'll give 7, which is about the same number he's been a non-factor in.
 

VinnieB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 28, 2021
6,124
8,880
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Collingwood
Was Martin ever the focal point in any of those games?
He is an opportunist. 1 mark in two of the grand finals is exactly what he's all about. He's a brilliant opportunist in the same vein as Darren Jarman and Jason Akermanis.

Opposition teams know full well you beat Richmond by stopping their tall timber. In 2017, it was Alex Rance who proved this by completely annihilating Adelaide's key forwards.
I don't even know why I am having this discussion with you anymore. You are deluded.

Martin isn't fit to tie Carey, Matthews or Ablett's bootlaces. He's beneath such players and wouldn't even be the equal of Buddy Franklin.
Jason Akermanis probably one of the most underrated stars of the game. He may have had a big mouth, but he delivered.
 

Trav 20

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 5, 2004
10,677
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Idiots get ignored
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You just seem to rate media skills or something weird, I’m just not sure. But at least you’re consistent rating zero flags Pendles and zero top-4 finish Judd (at Carlton) with some weird leadership rating that puts them above triple finals MVP, triple NS and triple flag Martin … who turned down millions to stay at Richmond.


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What sort of football follower doesn't think Pendlebury is a premiership player ?

It explains a lot.
 
Yet if you were doing a list of your top 5 players in the comp going into 2015, 2016 and likely 2017, he would be included. Comfortably.
He didn’t win the BnF 15,16 played 14 games in 17 and he won because they were rubbish.
 
6 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016.

Again, he was considered one of the best 3 players in the competition going into each of those seasons, and again in 2017.
Your right he was great prior to 2014 and maybe on track for another Brownlow but I don’t think he was top 5 at the end of each of those seasons, the way he played and that’s just an opinion.

Expected to play but he didn’t want to.
Had to use the I’ll never play again if you don’t break the contract after asking the previous year.
So obviously a sh.t relationship in the end with the club and no doubt affected the playing group the last couple of years him not wanting to play.

Made a great recovery and played full seasons after that.

I know that’s not a very flattering way of saying it but it happened.
Could’ve hit 400 games easy.
I doubt Gold Coast fans would worship at the shrine like you do after the way he brushed the club.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,869
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Your right he was great prior to 2014 and maybe on track for another Brownlow but I don’t think he was top 5 at the end of each of those seasons, the way he played and that’s just an opinion.
I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
 

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Noidnadroj

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 8, 2020
5,791
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6 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016.

Again, he was considered one of the best 3 players in the competition going into each of those seasons, and again in 2017.

I can’t agree going into 2017 : Danger just came off a thumping Brownlow win. Buddy.
Fyfe. Pendlebury. Selwood. Rance. Bontempelli. Gray. Gawn. Rioli. Betts.

No doubt still a gun, but not sure many saw him in the top handful of players in the competition. FWIW ‘Slobbo’ had Gazza at no.6 in his top-50 prior to start of 2017.


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Noidnadroj

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 8, 2020
5,791
19,533
AFL Club
Richmond
Which 9 finals was he BOG in?

I'll give 7, which is about the same number he's been a non-factor in.

2017: QF. PF. GF
2018: QF
2019: QF. GF
2020: SF. PF. GF

Even if you were to debate a couple where you argue he was second best to bring him down to your 7 x BOG’s, he was outstanding in 9 x finals.

In his other 7 x finals his averages were:

Possessions: 21
Inside-50’s: 5.71
Goals + goal assists: 1.29
Clearances: 1.86

DeGoey’s 2022 season averages:

Poss: 20.8
I50’s: 4.4
G+GA: 1.3
Clearances: 5.1

So even Martin’s worst 7 x finals don’t get shaded that badly by DeGoey’s career best season.

I was suspicious that there’s a ‘glow’ about yesteryear where bad games are forgotten, so I checked on the worst 7 x finals from players of days gone by:

Averages of worst 7 finals :

GAS / Carey / Hird:

Possessions: 10 / 10.57 / 15.14
Marks: 2.86 / 3.14 / 3.0
Goals: 1.57 / 0.57 / 0 (yes, Hird didn’t kick a goal and Carey kicked just 4)

So there’s 3 undisputed superstars of our game, with ‘look away now kids’ stats in their worst 7 x finals.

I then reviewed Buckley, who has only played 10 x finals so I took his worst 5 x finals. And Judd as he’s often touted as a big game player. And Goodes because for most Martin is in behind him in ratings:

So here are stats averages for Judd’s and Goodes worst 7 finals and Buckley’s worst 5 (not all stats easily available such as GA’s)

Judd / Buckley / Goodes

Possessions : 17.43 / 21.2 / 12.43
Goals: 0.43 / 0 / 0.29
Marks : 2.86 (Goodes only)

So in his worst 7 finals Judd averaged 17.43 touches and kicked 3 goals. Goodes averaged 12.43 touches, 2.86 marks and kicked 2
Goals. Buckley in his worst 5 averaged 21.2 and didn’t kick a goal. Martin averaged 21 and kicked 2 goals.

So Martin’s worst 7 finals compare very favourably with the worst 7 finals of some of the games greatest players. I’ll let you decide if others delivered 9 x BOG’s in the rest.

As I’ve said many many times…. our memories of the greats slowly sift out the crap games and their weaknesses where we only remember them with a ‘glow’,. Fortunately we have facts to get a better picture of the reality.


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I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
Well I guess we’ll see.
De Goey over Crisp…that’s funny
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
17,869
17,258
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
lol @ richmond battlers comparing stat averages of todays style of game to that of last century and acting all surprised that Dustie has more touches. 🤦🏻‍♂️

You can’t make this s**t up.

😂
Not to mention the different positions and roles they played...

I'm looking forward to the comparison with Barassi's worst 7 finals...
 
Not to mention the different positions and roles they played...

I'm looking forward to the comparison with Barassi's worst 7 finals...
Regardless,he is the most decorated player in GF’s and he is undisputed as a big game performer who’s direct impact resulted three premierships.

That’s why there’s a thread speculating if he were to win another would he be thought of as the greatest player of all time.
Certainly ought to have a statue erected at the G if it comes about ,IMO.

Who deserves one from the Colliwobbles?
 
Apr 23, 2016
30,511
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Had to use the I’ll never play again if you don’t break the contract after asking the previous year.

Pretty sure he wanted to go home for family reasons. Gold Coast said no. Then his sister died. They said yes.

 
Feb 4, 2008
12,967
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Yet if you were doing a list of your top 5 players in the comp going into 2015, 2016 and likely 2017, he would be included. Comfortably.

If seasons where people hope you return to your best before the season count then Martin has more than the 4 seasons at the top. What a stupid(but creative so points) way to judge a player. Ablett’s career is over. We can see his output. He averages less Brownlow votes than Dusty. had way less impact in finals in his prime, was a failed captain. So if leadership is truly as important to you as you say, you are taking points off Ablett for straight out failed leadership.

Get serious though, how a player is rated going into a season has absolutely no place in rating how good a player they are post career. Ablett over his career leads Martin in accumulation of most statistics, but marginally. It shows how good Ablett was, because we have established clearly on this thread how good Martin has been across his career. But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%. These are all the key statistical indicators of impact. Knowing the impact of the two players in advance and when it has been delivered, no club would draft Ablett over Martin. No club would draft any player we can fairly compare to Martin over Martin. They would if finals didn’t exist, but they do exist, they are what clubs prize most and Dusty’s performances in finals added to his overall excellent career would make him a certain pick 1 over any modern player to whom he can be fairly compared by us. To show just how certain this is, Ablett has a very decent - though not dominant - finals record. And it is not even close to matching Dusty’s finals record, as much as you have attempted to twist things to make it do so.
 
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