Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest pla


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Feb 4, 2008
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Pretty sure he wanted to go home for family reasons. Gold Coast said no. Then his sister died. They said yes.


Whatever his reasons for wanting to go home, and we are in no position to judge what factors formed his true motivation, if the Suns had their time again they surely wouldn’t want him as Captain.
 
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Whatever his reasons for wanting to go home, and we are in no position to judge what factors formed his true motivation, if the Suns had their time again they surely wouldn’t want him as Captain.

Gold Coast made a lot of errors when they first started, partly caused by the AFL, partly not.

Ablett was an amazing player for them, but time and again we've seen that making someone Captain just because they're your best player isn't a great plan.
 

Trav 20

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But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%.
Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...
 

Fadge

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If seasons where people hope you return to your best before the season count then Martin has more than the 4 seasons at the top. What a stupid(but creative so points) way to judge a player. Ablett’s career is over. We can see his output. He averages less Brownlow votes than Dusty. had way less impact in finals in his prime, was a failed captain. So if leadership is truly as important to you as you say, you are taking points off Ablett for straight out failed leadership.

Get serious though, how a player is rated going into a season has absolutely no place in rating how good a player they are post career. Ablett over his career leads Martin in accumulation of most statistics, but marginally. It shows how good Ablett was, because we have established clearly on this thread how good Martin has been across his career. But you move to the biggest games, finals, and the contest between the two is put to bed, and not marginally. Martin averages more disposals by around 8%, more goals by 125%, more goal assists by by 100%, more contested possessions by 25%. These are all the key statistical indicators of impact. Knowing the impact of the two players in advance and when it has been delivered, no club would draft Ablett over Martin. No club would draft any player we can fairly compare to Martin over Martin. They would if finals didn’t exist, but they do exist, they are what clubs prize most and Dusty’s performances in finals added to his overall excellent career would make him a certain pick 1 over any modern player to whom he can be fairly compared by us. To show just how certain this is, Ablett has a very decent - though not dominant - finals record. And it is not even close to matching Dusty’s finals record, as much as you have attempted to twist things to make it do so.
For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.
 
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I'm not saying what he delivered was the top 5 players in the competition at the end of the season, but if you sat down at the start of 2015, 2016 and likely 2017 and you could pick anyone from the comp, you'd go GAJ as your first picked at the start of 2015, probably top 3 at the start of 2016 (with Fyfe and Buddy), and Top 5 at the start of 2017 (with Fyfe, Buddy and Dangerfield). He then starts to drop off.

Do the same exercise with Dusty and he may have been just inside your Top 10 before or at the start of 2017, he becomes the game's number 1 player that year, and would be one of the first picked each year through to and including 2021. Based on 2021 form he drops out of the top 5 and would he be in anyone's first 20 players picked going into the 2023 season based on projected output?

For 2023 I'm picking the following players ahead of him:
Neale
McGluggage
Dunkley
Cripps
Curnow
McKay
Weitering
(not Walsh due to injury)
Moore
De Goey
Crisp
J. Cameron
Oliver
Petracca
Miller
Bontempelli
Naughton
T. Greene
A. Brayshaw
C. Serong
J. Steele
C. Rozee
C. Mills
C. Warner
B. Smith
S. Bolton
T. Lynch
M. Gawn
T. Stewart

I notice he's paying $81 for the Brownlow, and reckon that's unders.
What a joke u r sometimes. This post is nothing but a pissweak troll. He's $81 for the brownlow because he'll be playing forward mid.
Time to have a spell from this thread if you're going to post crap.
 

Fadge

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Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...
Yep, they also include Ablett's later finals series' as a Cat, as a 34/35/36 year old...
 

Fadge

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What a joke u r sometimes. This post is nothing but a pissweak troll. He's $81 for the brownlow because he'll be playing forward mid.
Time to have a spell from this thread if you're going to post crap.
He's $81 for the Brownlow because he's (more than likely) past it.

What are your expectations for his output in 2023?

I've gone on record that 15 games and 10 Brownlow votes (if we are using a measure like that, which is always fraught with danger) is a pass mark.
 
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Do those stats include Ablett's first 5 finals in 2004 and 2005 ?

Ablett averaged only 15 disposals in his first 100 games between the years 2002 and 2006.

In his first 5 finals, which were included in this period where he was a modest small forward, his total disposals were 77, which pretty much mirrored his 15 disposal average from those first 5 years.

I'm more interested in the disposal comparison sans those first 5 finals, because they skew the data. If you have them, of course ...

Fair question but if you exclude finals in Ablett’s 3rd and 4th years because he was pre-prime, and even his later finals because he was post-prime, we probably need to exclude Dusty’s 2013 & 2015 final on the same basis and his 2018 PF when clearly hampered by injury and his 2022 final when first up off 9 weeks missing injured, and a terribly interrupted season.

What we are left with is the comparison we have done before, their prime age finals when both were fit and properly prepared. And Ablett tended to run around at half back getting uncontested possessions in his, whilst Martin as we know smashed 3 finals series to pieces with massive midfield and scoreboard impact.
 
Feb 4, 2008
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He's $81 for the Brownlow because he's (more than likely) past it.

What are your expectations for his output in 2023?

I've gone on record that 15 games and 10 Brownlow votes (if we are using a measure like that, which is always fraught with danger) is a pass mark.

All thing being equal, Martin will have a strong season. Much stronger than you would have it. He is training well, and as we know he is on many measures in a class of his own as a modern player. If his body stands up(and from his whole career he only has his mystery 9 week hamstring issues from 2022 to suggest otherwise) he will be a dominant force. I actually went live to a game against the Hawks last year where he played, and it was pretty clear watching that he wasn’t past it. 31 turning 32 in the season is not old for a top class player if he is in good physical condition(and avoids injuries.)
 
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For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.

So far I have watched 1/4 of Ablett’s 2008 GF v Hawks and taken some notes. This is my busiest time of the year, but I will watch either all Ablett’s prime aged finals eventually or a good selection of them as my time opens up a bit more as it is a big undertaking. Currently working 3 jobs to keep the country running. 😉
 

Fadge

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So far I have watched 1/4 of Ablett’s 2008 GF v Hawks and taken some notes. This is my busiest time of the year, but I will watch either all Ablett’s prime aged finals eventually or a good selection of them as my time opens up a bit more as it is a big undertaking. Currently working 3 jobs to keep the country running. 😉
No doubt your final analysis will be worth the wait.

Maybe we can have some progressive updates, though I understand why it has taken you so long just to watch the first quarter - there is so much to assess...
 

Fadge

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All thing being equal, Martin will have a strong season. Much stronger than you would have it. He is training well, and as we know he is on many measures in a class of his own as a modern player. If his body stands up(and from his whole career he only has his mystery 9 week hamstring issues from 2022 to suggest otherwise) he will be a dominant force. I actually went live to a game against the Hawks last year where he played, and it was pretty clear watching that he wasn’t past it. 31 turning 32 in the season is not old for a top class player if he is in good physical condition(and avoids injuries.)
So what's a pass mark?
 

Trav 20

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Fair question but if you exclude finals in Ablett’s 3rd and 4th years because he was pre-prime, and even his later finals because he was post-prime, we probably need to exclude Dusty’s 2013 & 2015 final on the same basis and his 2018 PF when clearly hampered by injury and his 2022 final when first up off 9 weeks missing injured, and a terribly interrupted season.

What we are left with is the comparison we have done before, their prime age finals when both were fit and properly prepared. And Ablett tended to run around at half back getting uncontested possessions in his, whilst Martin as we know smashed 3 finals series to pieces with massive midfield and scoreboard impact.
I'm happy to include Ablett's end years, because it is what it is. Some players slow down. Just like I'll include Martin's last years in the future where he may or may not slow down.

But Ablett very much had two distinct careers, ie his first 100 games where he was a small forward and then from 2007 on.

Martin never had that disparity. Granted in year's 4 (2013) and 6 (2015) he may not have been in his absolute prime, but he was still a gun. He was still kicking over 20 goals and averaging over 20 disposals in each of those years. How many players do that ? So they're included. Just like I'll include Petracca's modest 2018 finals series before he improved when discussing his overall finals record.

So, if you eliminate Ablett's first 5 finals how do things look head to head ?
 
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Feb 4, 2008
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So what's a pass mark?

I don’t deal in pass marks. We don’t ev en know the precise role he will be given yet, and to be honest I doubt Richmond would even have settled properly on that. All manner of things can go right or wrong for any team or player. We can just assess based on known facts after the event. He is a top class player. If he doesn’t meet with catastrophe he will be a dominant force, a huge weapon for Richmond and a massive headache for opposition teams to cover.
 

Fadge

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I don’t deal in pass marks. We don’t ev en know the precise role he will be given yet, and to be honest I doubt Richmond would even have settled properly on that. All manner of things can go right or wrong for any team or player. We can just assess based on known facts after the event. He is a top class player. If he doesn’t meet with catastrophe he will be a dominant force, a huge weapon for Richmond and a massive headache for opposition teams to cover.
Hmm. Very non-committal.

You would hope that a player who is being talked up as the GOAT by his team's supporters has enough left in the tank as a 31/32 year old to have a 10 or so vote Brownlow year, on the podium in his club's best and fairest, and on the verge of All-Australian selection.

I guess time will tell.
 

blaisee

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For the majority of you who won't waste their time reading this, Meteoric Rise has just stated no club would draft GAJ over Martin with the benefit of hindsight.

He has officially jumped the shark.

By the way, still waiting for your relative assessments of GAJ's 2007 to 2010 finals series' compared to Martin between 2017 to 2020.

We need more than 'it is not even close to match Martin's finals record'.

On the balance of their careers no club would draft Gaj over Martin.

One was a mercenary that shafted his club, his club actually got better after he left, the other was a loyal servant that knocked back millions to stay loyal to the club that drafted him. The fact that GAJ still left Geelong, The club that made his families name, perhaps one of the most famous in history, the club that his father played at, for more money, TBH is a blight on his character. It confirms his as a mercenary. On the flip side, has anyone ever knocked back as much money as Dusty to stay loyal to his mates?

One was a selfish stat peddling footballer, the other is perhaps the most unselfish champion to ever play

Knowing what we know, you would be crazy to draft GAJ over Martin
 
Feb 4, 2008
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I'm happy to include Ablett's end years, because it is what it is. Some players slow down. Just like I'll include Martin's last years in the future where he may or may not slow down.

But Ablett very much had two distinct careers, ie his first 100 games where he was a pretty ineffectual small forward and then from 2007 on.

Martin never had that disparity. Granted in year's 4 (2013) and 6 (2015) he may not have been in his absolute prime, but he was still a gun. He was still kicking over 20 goals and averaging over 20 disposals in each of those years. How many players do that ? So they're included. Just like I'll include Petracca's modest 2018 finals series before he improved when discussing his overall finals record.

So, if you eliminate Ablett's first 5 finals how do things look head to head ?

That jst isn’t a sound way to compare Trav. Have a look at Ablett’s first 5 years, statistically he ranged between decent and gun small forward/high half forward. If Martin was better than Ablett in the early part of his career then to me it is just another thing to suggest Martin has been a better player overall.

I am rushed today, but you can present any comparison you think is fair by referring to the players’ respective careers at afltables.com



To be honest I think the 2007-10 Ablett 6th to 9th year v the Dusty 2017-20, 7th to 10th year comparison probably gives the best comparison as it is both players in their prime, 98 Brownlow votes Ablett v 97 Brownlow votes Dusty(adjusted for 2020 shortened season.) The finals in those seasons should be indicative.
 

Fadge

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That jst isn’t a sound way to compare Trav. Have a look at Ablett’s first 5 years, statistically he ranged between decent and gun small forward/high half forward. If Martin was better than Ablett in the early part of his career then to me it is just another thing to suggest Martin has been a better player overall.

I am rushed today, but you can present any comparison you think is fair by referring to the players’ respective careers at afltables.com



To be honest I think the 2007-10 Ablett 6th to 9th year v the Dusty 2017-20, 7th to 10th year comparison probably gives the best comparison as it is both players in their prime, 98 Brownlow votes Ablett v 97 Brownlow votes Dusty(adjusted for 2020 shortened season.) The finals in those seasons should be indicative.
So you're going to disregard the other 5 to 7 years that Ablett was regarded as the best player in the competition, because Martin has nowhere near the equivalent longevity?

Convenient.
 
Feb 4, 2008
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Hmm. Very non-committal.

You would hope that a player who is being talked up as the GOAT by his team's supporters has enough left in the tank as a 31/32 year old to have a 10 or so vote Brownlow year, on the podium in his club's best and fairest, and on the verge of All-Australian selection.

I guess time will tell.

If he plays a full season I will be pretty surprised if he isn’t in strong AA contention. Brownlow, who knows, his role could preclude a really strong showing but he is a known vote getter, so will get votes. But ultimately it will come down to when the best play the best and whether Richmond and Dusty are there and how they play. His record says he will take a lot of stopping if he gets a good run at it.
 
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So you're going to disregard the other 5 to 7 years that Ablett was regarded as the best player in the competition, because Martin has nowhere near the equivalent longevity?

Convenient.

Errr…we are talking about their finals records. Ablett didn’t play finals in the years you are splooging over. I cannot rewrite history to make him play finals in those seasons. In any event, he gets a very fair comparison of 12 finals in his prime v 12 finals in Dusty’s prime. Only a very biased person would complain over that comparison.

Ablett wasn’t considered the best player in the competition in 5-7 seasons post 2010 in any event. You can probably at best identify a 7 season phase 2007-2013 where Ablett’s body of work is the best over that whole phase rather than the best at all times during the phase. But guess what? Go from 2014-2020 and try to come up with a player who had a better body of work than Dusty in that period….of 7 years.

Need to start calling you Fudge again.
 

Fadge

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Errr…we are talking about their finals records. Ablett didn’t play finals in the years you are splooging over. I cannot rewrite history to make him play finals in those seasons. In any event, he gets a very fair comparison of 12 finals in his prime v 12 finals in Dusty’s prime. Only a very biased person would complain over that comparison.

Ablett wasn’t considered the best player in the competition in 5-7 seasons post 2010 in any event. You can probably at best identify a 7 season phase 2007-2013 where Ablett’s body of work is the best over that whole phase rather than the best at all times during the phase. But guess what? Go from 2014-2020 and try to come up with a player who had a better body of work than Dusty in that period….of 7 years.

Need to start calling you Fudge again.
Ablett not the best in 2014 despite his season finishing at round 15 but leading the Brownlow through to round 21, and trying to include that in a 7 year period where Dusty was the best.

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
 

Noidnadroj

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Yep, they also include Ablett's later finals series' as a Cat, as a 34/35/36 year old...

Ok …. so you criticise anyone who wants to excuse Martin’s injured 2018 PF or 2022 EF after a 10-week layoff, but now want to take away Ablett’s first 5-years of finals and his last 4-years of finals …ok, removing 9-years of data that may skew his numbers sounds reasonable…..


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