Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2023 Draft Thread

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Sep 19, 2018
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Back for 2023! As I've done in the past, I thought I'd just share some early thoughts on a few specific players from this draft crop.

***More coming

Harley Reid
Consensus best kid in the draft to start the season. He couldn't have done too much more in his bottom-age year. I can't think of too many players who can impact the game in all three parts of the ground the way Reid can. Has an enviable mix of size, speed, power and class that is rare in a midfielder. He reads the game exceptionally well and his aerial prowess allows him to be a weapon across halfback. He can also be a matchwinner up forward where he's fantastic 1 on 1, dangerous when the ball hits the deck and clinical in front of goal. A genuine can't-miss prospect.

Daniel Curtin
Curtin showed enough in the Futures game to suggest he's the only player capable of challenging Reid for that number 1 selection. He's such a nice mover for a key position prospect. He's a great intercept marker and likes to get the ball in his hands across halfback where he's a tidy user coming out of defence. Considering lessons learned from previous years, I'm cautiously aware that a key position prospect's draft year can throw up almost anything (see Harry Lemmey in 2022), but there's enough evidence for me to call Curtin a top 2 prospect going into the 2023 season.

Colby McKercher
I'm a big fan of McKercher. I don't think I'd be shocking anyone by projecting him as a first round talent going into the 2023 season. I rate his inside/outside balance and love how smoothly he moves in and around the contest. His agility and ability to change lanes under pressure allows him to get separation from his opponent. He can rack up the footy around the ground and is typically effective by hand and foot. I think he has the forward craft and finishing ability to hit the scoreboard more in his draft year and I think that will be an important string to add to his bow.

Ashton Moir
I remember the first time I saw Ashton Moir play. He finished a beautiful set shot on his left from about 40m out. 5 minutes later he did the same on his right foot. I actually had to go home and re-watch the game to make sure that I wasn't just imagining it. He's just so pure off both feet. He's a pretty special vertical athlete and is equally as dangerous when the ball hits the deck. I've been told he's an absolute weapon when he goes into the midfield but I just haven't seen that part of his game yet. At this stage, I view him as forward but would love to see if he can work his way into the midfield for Glenelg and South Australia this year. His capacity to go through the midfield will ultimately dictate his ceiling for me. I suspect this will be a common theme for a few prospects this year.

Nick Watson
Potentially controversial, but I don't think I'd have Nick Watson in my top 10 going into the season. For Watson it's not really a question of talent but how his size impacts his ceiling at AFL level. He really is very small, though admittedly I think he does play taller than he stands. He's so classy inside forward 50. He's got great patience with the ball in hand and knows exactly where the goals (and his teammates) are at all times. Despite his size, he still applies plenty of pressure inside 50 and I think he'll have the strength to finish tackles at the next level.

Zane Duursma
A really nice athlete and another super dangerous talent in front of goal. Duursma has the size, speed and athleticism to be a pretty special player. Like Moir, I'm looking forward to seeing Duursma spend some time in the midfield this season, as that will tell us a lot about what his ceiling is like at AFL level. He covers the ground really well and has all the attributes to be really dynamic around the contest. His work in the forward half is exceptional. He's so good on the lead and really strong overhead. I'd be expecting him to be a top 10 pick at the end of the season.

Jack Delean
Delean has been on the scene as an underager for a while now in South Australia and has shown pretty much everything you'd want to see from a small forward. He's strong on the lead and incredibly good overhead for a player his size. He's dynamic on the ground too, showing the strength to evade opponents and a the craftiness to finish in front of goals. He's a capable pressure forward too, who sticks and finishes tackles. He's super talented and should be on an AFL list by the end of the year.

Sam Frangalas
I really like Frangalas but I'll need some testing data before I fully commit to him as a prospect. He has enviable size and power as a midfielder and can also go forward and hit the scoreboard. He's a long, penetrating kick, though at times can be caught blazing away. He's going to separate at the contest with power more than speed, but I think that translates fine at the next level. His running will be an interesting element to track throughout the year and without knowing how he currently tests, I'm guessing that's probably an area of improvement for him.

Ben Ridgway
Ridgway isn't flashy but he plays tough, hard footy. He's an absolute bull on the inside, where his defensive work is equally as good as his ability to win the football. I wouldn't describe him as classy, but he's certainly more effective by foot than I probably gave him credit. He's a really mature kid and comes across as quite self-aware. I haven't spent a lot of time with him, but he just seems like a really good kid. Ridgway is another who's running and athletic testing is something that I see significantly impacting my evaluation.

Cooper Simpson
I'm a really big Cooper Simpson fan. He's got a nice turn of speed, is super shifty and I love the way he works through traffic. He can hit the scoreboard and has the defensive ability to find a role inside 50 at AFL level. I actually think he has more scope than that though and think a pinch-hit role in the midfield, perhaps similar to Jade Gresham, is something that is achievable for him.

Will Lorenz
Lorenz just looks like such a natural accumulator of the footy. He does such a good job of finding space and he's a really capable user by foot. I'm intrigued to see how his inside game develops this year as that will likely give some insight into his ceiling as a footballer. His athletic testing will be another key indicator of that too.
 
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Ashton Moir
I remember the first time I saw Ashton Moir play. He finished a beautiful set shot on his left from about 40m out. 5 minutes later he did the same on his right foot. I actually had to go home and re-watch the game to make sure that I wasn't just imagining it. He's just so pure off both feet. He's a pretty special vertical athlete and is equally as dangerous when the ball hits the deck. I've been told he's an absolute weapon when he goes into the midfield but I just haven't seen that part of his game yet. At this stage, I view him as forward but would love to see if he can work his way into the midfield for Glenelg and South Australia this year. His capacity to go through the midfield will ultimately dictate his ceiling for me. I suspect this will be a common theme for a few prospects this year.


He'd surely be a pick 1 contender with his ambidexterity.
 

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Will Lorenz
Lorenz just looks like such a natural accumulator of the footy. He does such a good job of finding space and he's a really capable user by foot. I'm intrigued to see how his inside game develops this year as that will likely give some insight into his ceiling as a footballer. His athletic testing will be another key indicator of that too.
Played off HB today. He and Philactides combo was a site to see today.
 
Nick Watson
Potentially controversial, but I don't think I'd have Nick Watson in my top 10 going into the season. For Watson it's not really a question of talent but how his size impacts his ceiling at AFL level. He really is very small, though admittedly I think he does play taller than he stands. He's so classy inside forward 50. He's got great patience with the ball in hand and knows exactly where the goals (and his teammates) are at all times. Despite his size, he still applies plenty of pressure inside 50 and I think he'll have the strength to finish tackles at the next level.
I don't think its controversial. There are so many good players this year that its hard to rank. Kossi Picket is 171cm, pick 13. Watson 169cm can he better than Kossi? I'd have Watto around the same selection mark.
 

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I retired out of respect for the 🐐

I overload myself with commitments so I don't have time alone with my thoughts, it's comforting
That’s what podcasts are for.

And seeing as you brought it up, can you tell Pie 4 Life that he needs to get his @** in to gear and start pumping those episodes out for 2023.

There’s only so many times I can listen to Twomey & Beveridge on YouTube to get to sleep.
 
That’s what podcasts are for.

And seeing as you brought it up, can you tell Pie 4 Life that he needs to get his @** in to gear and start pumping those episodes out for 2023.

There’s only so many times I can listen to Twomey & Beveridge on YouTube to get to sleep.
We’ll be doing em in the lead up to the Talent League starting so probably in two weeks.
 
We’ll be doing em in the lead up to the Talent League starting so probably in two weeks.
New York Comedy GIF by HULU
 
Where do you have Joel Freijah, Kane McAuliffe and Jed Dignan out of interest?
It's probably a bit early for me to make a call on where some of these guys fit.

I like Freijah and expect him to really come on this year. He's one that could be used in a few different roles. Good size, good speed, capable overhead and he's still got a lot of development in him. I think he's probably got the highest ceiling of the three.

I'm not the biggest McAuliffe fan but that was all off the back of his SANFL U18's footy last year. I caught a couple of glimpses in the Futures game that demonstrated what others clearly see. He's certainly got power through the hips and in his left foot and he lays some heavy tackles. He seems to be a bit one-paced (though his testing might make me look silly there) and I never felt like he really covered the ground all that well. I just can't get there on him yet.

If you'd told me early last year that we'd be having a conversation about Jed Dignan that would've surprised me, but his back-end to the year was pretty impressive. Once he started to find his feet on the wing and even push into the midfield you started to see how impactful he could be. The fact that he's a nice size and can go forward and turn a game matters to me. Hopefully he follows that same trajectory he was on towards the end of last season.
 
It's probably a bit early for me to make a call on where some of these guys fit.

I like Freijah and expect him to really come on this year. He's one that could be used in a few different roles. Good size, good speed, capable overhead and he's still got a lot of development in him. I think he's probably got the highest ceiling of the three.

I'm not the biggest McAuliffe fan but that was all off the back of his SANFL U18's footy last year. I caught a couple of glimpses in the Futures game that demonstrated what others clearly see. He's certainly got power through the hips and in his left foot and he lays some heavy tackles. He seems to be a bit one-paced (though his testing might make me look silly there) and I never felt like he really covered the ground all that well. I just can't get there on him yet.

If you'd told me early last year that we'd be having a conversation about Jed Dignan that would've surprised me, but his back-end to the year was pretty impressive. Once he started to find his feet on the wing and even push into the midfield you started to see how impactful he could be. The fact that he's a nice size and can go forward and turn a game matters to me. Hopefully he follows that same trajectory he was on towards the end of last season.
Spot on with Joel, really caught my eye the several times I saw him play live up close, think he'll be a big riser on the boards this season.

Kane was carrying the infamous osteo-pubis/groin issue for most of the season, that's under control now by all reports and I think you're going to be mildly surprised when you see what he's capable of when running on the top of the ground.

Fair effort by Jed Dignan when you consider he traveled from Orroroo every week to play (3+hour drive) and rarely trained with the team,probably explains why he took a while to settle in to their system. He's finished high school now and has moved to Adelaide to Uni and will be training full time with the team, odds on IMO to represent SA at the Nationals.
 
Rate any of our GC academy guys this year?
Without being too boring clearly the standouts are: I haven't worked it out but to secure all 3 if bids come I suspect GC will need to do some negotiating on picks.
Jed Walter - At this point in time he is clearly the best big fwd this year. Considering he will be an early pick he may even take the #1 spot if other clubs decide to bid on him. GC may have to trade their pick 7 to fit all 3 boys in. He had a solid 2022 carnival. If he doesn't go pick #1 i suspect he wont get past pick #3 due to the bidding system.
Ethan Reid - Clearly he is very athletic, I like his ground ball touch for such a big guy. At 200cm he's not a ruck, can he develop into another key fwd for the suns. Its hard to tell at this stage, his marking needs improving but the upside is he has so much developing to do.
Jake Rogers - At 172cm I feel like he needs to develop his fwd craft. He has the attributes, but when I see players of this size I tend to compare them to Nick Watson. Rogers is not in the same class as Watson but he definitely has some tricks and is exciting to watch when he's on. Not that it’s a deal breaker and I prefer to use the game gps numbers instead of static testing but sometimes it can create opinions and I see he didn't finish in the top 5 in the 20m sprint, so he will need to improve his speed if he wants to be one of the better small fwds this year. But again what does his gps data say. Definitely draftable though. Good small fwds are in vogue.
 
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Without being too boring clearly the standouts are: I haven't worked it out but to secure all 3 if bids come I suspect GC will need to do some negotiating on picks.
Jed Walter - At this point in time he is clearly the best big fwd this year. Considering he will be an early pick he may even take the #1 spot if other clubs decide to bid on him. GC may have to trade their pick 7 to fit all 3 boys in. He had a solid 2022 carnival. If he doesn't go pick #1 i suspect he wont get past pick #3 due to the bidding system.
Ethan Reid - Clearly he is very athletic, I like his ground ball touch for such a big guy. At 200cm he's not a ruck, can he develop into another key fwd for the suns. Its hard to tell at this stage, his marking needs improving but the upside is he has so much developing to do.
Jake Rogers - At 172cm I feel like he needs to develop his fwd craft. He has the attributes, but when I see players of this size I tend to compare them to Nick Watson. Rogers is not in the same class as Watson but he definitely has some tricks and is exciting to watch when he's on. Not that it’s a deal breaker and I prefer to use the game gps numbers instead of static testing but sometimes it can create opinions and I see he didn't finish in the top 5 in the 20m sprint, so he will need to improve his speed if he wants to be one of the better small fwds this year. But again what does his gps data say. Definitely draftable though. Good small fwds are in vogue.

Thanks mate, can't see anyone bidding on him over Harley Reid though. Maybe pick 2 though! He has some areas of improvement in consistency and nous I reckon.
 
Rate any of our GC academy guys this year?
Without being too boring clearly the standouts are: I haven't worked it out but to secure all 3 if bids come I suspect GC will need to do some negotiating on picks.
Jed Walter - At this point in time he is clearly the best big fwd this year. Considering he will be an early pick he may even take the #1 spot if other clubs decide to bid on him. GC may have to trade their pick 7 to fit all 3 boys in. He had a solid 2022 carnival. If he doesn't go pick #1 i suspect he wont get past pick #3 due to the bidding system.
Ethan Reid - Clearly he is very athletic, I like his ground ball touch for such a big guy. At 200cm he's not a ruck, can he develop into another key fwd for the suns. Its hard to tell at this stage, his marking needs improving but the upside is he has so much developing to do.
Jake Rogers - At 172cm I feel like he needs to develop his fwd craft. He has the attributes, but when I see players of this size I tend to compare them to Nick Watson. Rogers is not in the same class as Watson but he definitely has some tricks and is exciting to watch when he's on. Not that it’s a deal breaker and I prefer to use the game gps numbers instead of static testing but sometimes it can create opinions and I see he didn't finish in the top 5 in the 20m sprint, so he will need to improve his speed if he wants to be one of the better small fwds this year. But again what does his gps data say. Definitely draftable though. Good small fwds are in vogue.
Walter couldn't have done much more up to this point. His champs performance was pretty impressive and because of his positional value as a key forward, he could definitely challenge for that top selection (though I agree with you MarcLocksCrustySock that I don't see anybody going ahead of Reid).

Jake Rogers can get his hands on the footy, has a bit of speed and has showed he can find the goals. Naturally the question mark will be over his size but there are tools to work with.

I haven't done enough work on the GC kids yet to be really definitive with my views on them, but I'll certainly share my thoughts throughout the year as they develop.
 
Walter couldn't have done much more up to this point. His champs performance was pretty impressive and because of his positional value as a key forward, he could definitely challenge for that top selection (though I agree with you MarcLocksCrustySock that I don't see anybody going ahead of Reid).

Jake Rogers can get his hands on the footy, has a bit of speed and has showed he can find the goals. Naturally the question mark will be over his size but there are tools to work with.

I haven't done enough work on the GC kids yet to be really definitive with my views on them, but I'll certainly share my thoughts throughout the year as they develop.
Thanks for the response mate, enjoy your takes.
 
Pre-season notes Part 2
***Part 1 of my pre-season notes is captured in the first post of this thread.

Harry Francis
I first saw Harry Francis play two years ago and he immediately became a favourite of mine. That day he played primarily through the ruck, resting forward. He showed a fair bit of natural athleticism and coordination and his ability to use the ball around the ground was above average for his size. I've since seen him play a bit more in defence and I think that might be the position that gives him the best opportunity to have a career at AFL level. I know most won't look favourably on this call, but I think some of his strengths are comparable to someone like Billy Frampton. He's got similar size, coordination, fluidity, natural athleticism and above average ball-use. Areas of growth include 1 on 1 competitiveness in the contest and overall physicality.

Jack Callinan
I'm a big fan of Jack Callinan and would have him in the top half of my draft board at this point of the season. There's no question marks on his footy for me. He's got the forward craft to consistently impact on the scoreboard and ability to apply pressure inside 50. He doesn't look out of place through the midfield and while he's probably not a permanent midfielder at AFL level, he's certainly got the talent to play a role as a pinch-hitter.

Arie Schoenmaker
Schoenmaker has nice speed for his size and is a really capable user by foot coming out of defence. Ideally he gets to a genuine KPD size as he currently measures in as a third tall at about 193cm. He's a capable interceptor and what makes him so damaging is his ability to intercept and then rebound. I see a genuine best 22 prospect and am keen to see further physical development and growth in his defensive game.

Alex Holt
I've been lucky enough to see a fair bit of Alex Holt at SANFL U18 level and have been very impressed with his competitiveness and leadership. His defensive work is exceptional and he's demonstrated a capacity to play on a variety of different types. His work rebounding from defensive 50 has come with mixed results. He has the right mindset and has shown a willingness to take the game on. This comes with mistakes but it never appears to impact his confidence and you'd expect it will be beneficial for his development long-term.

Nathan Philactides
Philactides is one of the more exciting prospects in this class. It's great to watch what he can do with the footy and how quickly he can turn defence into attack. He's got a great speed/power/burst combo and has a classy left foot. I do wonder whether there's a cap on his ceiling from a draft range perspective given his size/role but he's still one I expect to be discussed in the first half of the draft.

Ryley Sanders
Sanders is one I'm keen to track closely this year. I love his size, frame and work on the inside. He moves through traffic well but doesn't have that burst or speed that is really desirable. He's a competent distributor, especially by hand and willing tackler. With Sanders, I think the footy is good enough, but the question mark will be on his athletic attributes.

Archie Roberts
I'm not completely sold on Roberts as a prospect yet, but it wouldn't be the first time I've been late to the party. I'd like to see his kicking and decision-making improve coming out of defence, as I feel at times he settles for distance rather than hitting up shorter, more aggressive targets. I'll also acknowledge that is sometimes a product of the options that actually present themselves up the field, so it's perhaps not always his fault. He's got a bit of development to come physically, but he's got time to add the necessary size. I'd really like to see his 1 on 1 defensive work improve to complement his ability to read the flight of the ball. Like a few others, I think the positional-value limits the ceiling of his draft-range.
 

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