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List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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Link to contract status of all players


Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

 
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Given that WA has a great field on talent this year, is it worth bring in an additional R2 & R3, by trading out 2024 R2 and R3

This will give us 7 picks in the top R3 rounds

Given we could easily cut another 7 deep this year

Strong talent pool plus another 2 players into the AFL system sooner
 
Given that WA has a great field on talent this year, is it worth bring in an additional R2 & R3, by trading out 2024 R2 and R3

This will give us 7 picks in the top R3 rounds

Given we could easily cut another 7 deep this year

Strong talent pool plus another 2 players into the AFL system sooner
It would be good if we can package up some of those picks for a first rounder to someone chasing points. We've already got 2 x 2nd rounders and 3rd rounders. Not against using future picks but would like to package it up rather then take 7 picks in 3rnds. Rather have 3 or 4 picks in first 3 rounds but two of them being first rounders and then use a couple of our later picks in rnds 4/5.
 
Given that WA has a great field on talent this year, is it worth bring in an additional R2 & R3, by trading out 2024 R2 and R3

This will give us 7 picks in the top R3 rounds

Given we could easily cut another 7 deep this year

Strong talent pool plus another 2 players into the AFL system sooner
IDK, we really need to work to beat the system some how. Each of our flag squads had (as well as a million other factors)- a leg up in the list build wise:
92/94 -> Zone selections and Vic incompetence in looking at WA players
2006 -> Cousins as F/S likely would have been a #1 pick. Gardiner at #1 after fleecing PA/AFL. Hiding good WA players when the talent here was still disrespected in Cox, Embley and about another 15 local rookie picks. A lot of our top 20 picks were actually busts but we had so much talent coming in. Then absolutely lucking out to pick up Judd.
2018 -> Judd trade giving us a leg up essentially 2x top 3 picks + an early 2nd (#20). Darling sliding massively in his draft year. Robbing Brisbane to acquire Yeo.


Look at Sydney: They picked up Heeney + Mills for peanuts. Their best two players who effectively would have been top 3 picks both years and in seasons when Sydney made GF none the less🤮. Gulden, Blakely & Campbell also fall under the BS Academy rules. Thats 1/4 of their team who are all top 10 talents who were picked up for 2nd and 3rd rounders. Add that to the fact when they bottomed out they went hard to pick up McDonald at #4. For a team who makes the GF every second year they should have more of a talent vacuum than we do yet they actually improved their list.
 
Interesting the thoughts on whether we need 2 genuine rucks in the team.

The Grundy/Gawn at Melbourne, the Cox/Cameron at Collingwood and the Jackson/Darcy at Freo will be seen during 2023 to see if they can genuinely do it..

NicNat has been an anomaly in that he has never been able to compete as the sole ruckman and is probably not able to do anything more than 60% TOG.

The idea about Oscar Allen pinch hitting in the ruck was an error by the club. Put simply, young players in the first 3 years (min) do not have the core strength to ruck and attempts to play talls too early has often led to long term damage to the player and a shortened career.

I liked what I saw with Waterman pinch hitting against the Giants but he feels a little undersized.

I would be very tempted to play Harry Edwards as the third tall defender and use Gov to pinch hit in the ruck. Our million dollar defender has been asking to ruck and I think it solves many things. Harry and Tom as develop a partnership down back and free up Gov.

Looking at the list on a longer term basis, could Harry Edwards become that chop out ruck?

Rotham has done it a bit but there is something about Josh not being able to take the game on that is of concern. Some have said he is better moving the ball on when further forward. I look forward to seeing it.

Meanwhile we have Jack Williams who I am hoping has a great year. He has a huge tank and decent leap meaning a combination of the Williams boys taking the hit outs makes sense. It will require Jack to go up a level with his forward craft as whoever takes on the chop out in the ruck needs to justify their selection when they are not rucking.
 

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2006 and 2018 premiership sides were built through a bit of luck and a bit of astute drafting and trading, not gaming the system.

2006: Getting Kerr at 18 in 2000, then Judd, Seaby, Hansen in 2001 (and Lynch in the rookie draft despite being an AA junior), then trading out of the 2002 and 2004 drafts to bring in established players in Chick and Stenglein. Yes, getting Cousins as a freebie was fortuitous but it was also more than a decade earlier.

2018: Getting Gaff, Darling and Lycett on the 2010 draft then picking up McGovern, who no one on this board had heard of, in the rookie draft and persisting with him despite an ordinary first few years. Getting Barrass in the 40s in 2013, bringing in established players in Redden and Jetta and a spare parts player in Vardy, and some mature-age State league players in 2016 (Rioli) and 2017 (Ryan).
 
Look at Sydney: They picked up Heeney + Mills for peanuts. Their best two players who effectively would have been top 3 picks both years and in seasons when Sydney made GF none the less🤮. Gulden, Blakely & Campbell also fall under the BS Academy rules. Thats 1/4 of their team who are all top 10 talents who were picked up for 2nd and 3rd rounders. Add that to the fact when they bottomed out they went hard to pick up McDonald at #4. For a team who makes the GF every second year they should have more of a talent vacuum than we do yet they actually improved their list.
Wasn't Gulden taken in the 30s?
 
I was bored last night so I decided to have a look at what the possible list changes could be at the end of the season going on who’s played the first 2 rounds & who hasn’t been selected so far.

Possible Retirements:

Hurn - Thought he was gone last year so you never know. Still playing good footy.

Shuey - IF he can stay injury free I can see him going again as his best is still good enough.

Nic Nat - Not looking promising & I genuinely think if he can’t get on top of this latest injury he’s the more likely of the 3 to call it a day. I just don’t think his body can handle it anymore.

Delist: Main List

Foley - I just don’t see where he fits I the side anymore. If Jones & Hunt are playing behind the ball & then you have Yeo/Shuey rotating through the backline there just isn’t a spot for him. He’s fighting with Cole & Witherden for a spot but I just don’t see him being any better than those guys.

L.Edwards - I think the club will just be hoping he can have a injury free year, build some form, confidence & hopefully push for selection. He has showed good signs when he’s played at the top level. Thinking we might move him onto the rookie list.

G. Clark - We seem to be focusing on youth in the midfield & on the wings so I really can’t see him getting much of a go. Unless injuries strike badly his possible games will be going to Ginbey, Chesser & Hewitt. He had a crack, made it on an afl list and played a few games but with a deep draft & plenty of picks I can’t see him getting another contract.

Delist - Rookie List

Z.Trew - He’s just too far down the pecking order IMO. I liked what I saw when fit last year but he has to get upgraded to the main list at the end of the year & I just can’t see a spot for him.

I.Winder - It’s pretty much the same situation as Trew.

Trade -

Petrol - I want him to make it but between being so hot & cold plus injuries he just hasn’t gone on as hoped. It might be time to just move on & see if we can get anything decent for him.

O’Neil - Make or Break season for him. If Ginbey, Chesser & Hewitt are getting games before him with the amount of time he’s been at the club then again it might be time to move on and see if he has any takers.

Gaff - At this point he can just go. I don’t really need to explain why as it’s been heavily discussed on this board already. To sum it up I reckon C.West would be the better value in the team.

A lot can change over the season but that’s who I think IMO is in the most danger so far.
 
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Was thinking today about the draft system and concessions made to certain clubs and the benefit of being based in Melbourne or more importantly the grind of being based in WA or SA. I haven't included the Suns or Giants in this for obvious reasons.
Basically you are twice as likely to win a Premiership or make the Grand Final is you play for one of the big Melbourne clubs or Sydney and Brisbane.

SINCE 1995.

If you take the Eagles,Dockers,Crows and Power since 1995 (dockers inception)combined there are 5 premierships and 10 grand final appearances between the 4 clubs. The Eagles carry nearly 50% of the load here with 4 Grand finals and two premerships. AVE 1.25 Flags
2.5 Grand finals


Brisbane and Sydney since 1995 they combined haves won 5 premierships and played in 11 grand finals. AVE 2.5 Flags
5.5 Grand Finals


The inner Melbourne based clubs Dee’s,Pies, Tigers and Hawks a whooping 9 premierships and 15 grand finals. AVE 2.25 Flags
3.75 Grand Finals


Then you have the Cats, Dogs,Saints and North with 7 premierships and 14 grand finals. AVE 1.75 Flags
3.5 Grand Finals




Carlton and Essendon I’ve lumped together because of draft penalties have Cleary impacted on these two clubs. 4 Grand finals and 2 premierships.

AVE 1 Flag
2 Grand Finals
 
I've been having a think about the draft system and why it can take 10 years to do a full rebuild. I think a big part of the problem is that through the main draft system (ignoring all the extras like academies, F/S etc) all clubs get the same number of selections. This means that the only advantage of finishing outside the 8 is that you have access to the top 10 players. From there, the finalists get access to 11-18 (in reverse order) and all clubs have access to players from the second round later.

Sure, the lower finishers get to pick first, but that only means that the first 10 selected are off the table for a finalist. This creates big issues for a rebuilding club, as talent depth usually starts to thin out by the 3rd round. If you want to turn over your 40 man list in 4 seasons (ie bring in 10 new players a year), then you're going to be selecting a lot of players at the end of the draft (or rookie draft).

Trades and free agency could be an answer, but there are clear limitations to them. If you're already crap, it's unlikely you have much talent to trade and free agency is really hampered by geographic restrictions. The best talent is unlikely to go anywhere other than their home state or Melbourne.

I really liked the old system of priority picks, as it addressed the problem directly. If you were bad enough for long enough, you started to get extra first round selections (or end of first), which gave you more shots at the top end talent. You could then use trades to bring in the role players once you had the core talent in place.
 
I've been having a think about the draft system and why it can take 10 years to do a full rebuild. I think a big part of the problem is that through the main draft system (ignoring all the extras like academies, F/S etc) all clubs get the same number of selections. This means that the only advantage of finishing outside the 8 is that you have access to the top 10 players. From there, the finalists get access to 11-18 (in reverse order) and all clubs have access to players from the second round later.

Sure, the lower finishers get to pick first, but that only means that the first 10 selected are off the table for a finalist. This creates big issues for a rebuilding club, as talent depth usually starts to thin out by the 3rd round. If you want to turn over your 40 man list in 4 seasons (ie bring in 10 new players a year), then you're going to be selecting a lot of players at the end of the draft (or rookie draft).

Trades and free agency could be an answer, but there are clear limitations to them. If you're already crap, it's unlikely you have much talent to trade and free agency is really hampered by geographic restrictions. The best talent is unlikely to go anywhere other than their home state or Melbourne.

I really liked the old system of priority picks, as it addressed the problem directly. If you were bad enough for long enough, you started to get extra first round selections (or end of first), which gave you more shots at the top end talent. You could then use trades to bring in the role players once you had the core talent in place.

The problem with priority picks was it encouraged tanking and even if a club was genuinely rubbish the perception that they might be tanking still lingered

More recently the introduction of free agency which the AFL thought would help bottom clubs improve by enabling them to target players at top clubs with extra money whilst not conceding draft picks, has actually had the opposite effect. Players who’ve spent 8 years at an unsuccessful club are willing to leave to a contending club for less money in the pursuit of success. Those successful clubs can then chase players through FA knowing they can retain their draft picks

Conversely players at successful clubs are happy to stay on less money as they want to win. The players that leave are either fringe players and/or are offered well above market to leave to a developing club

Even more recent, has been the trend of players asking to be traded and nominating a club that hinders the host club in getting a fair trade

The AFL needs to revise FA and also look at introducing some trading rules that allow clubs to have more of a say in where a player goes, especially when they’re still contracted
 
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How's longs Petch been on the books now?

Drafted in 2017. Same year as Allen and Ryan

(And Brander and Ainsworth but we don’t talk about them)

So it’s his 6th year at the club
 

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Given that WA has a great field on talent this year, is it worth bring in an additional R2 & R3, by trading out 2024 R2 and R3

This will give us 7 picks in the top R3 rounds

Given we could easily cut another 7 deep this year

Strong talent pool plus another 2 players into the AFL system sooner
Only top end club selling for points would be Suns and there will be plenty of clubs interested, especially if they stay low. Suns have 3 academy prospects and will need a load of points. Not many F/S prospects (as it stands) looking like R1 picks.

I can see us doing something with Melbourne as they have their own and Freo's R1 and might be prepared to delay their talent build another year.

The second round is going to get some very good prospects this year - that is where the midfielders are looking to be clustered and a decent mix of mids last tie I looked. I am OK staying put. We have 6 picks inside the first 4 rounds, 3 of them inside the first 2 rounds. Unless we end up bottom 2, the latter 3 picks will not even get us much.

2024 has a significant number of FS and academy prospects so the first round is likely to be compromised and there will be more sellers for points in 2024.
 
2024 has a significant number of FS and academy prospects so the first round is likely to be compromised and there will be more sellers for points in 2024.
When are you anticipating the Tassie rape and pillage of the draft to begin? I'm assuming they will get early concessions like GWS did then most of the top 20 picks for 2 years.
 
The problem with priority picks was it encouraged tanking and even if a club was genuinely rubbish the perception that they might be tanking still lingered

More recently the introduction of free agency which the AFL thought would help bottom clubs improve by enabling them to target players at top clubs with extra money whilst not conceding draft picks, has actually had the opposite effect. Players who’ve spent 8 years at an unsuccessful club are willing to leave to a contending club for less money in the pursuit of success. Those successful clubs can then chase players through FA knowing they can retain their draft picks

Conversely players at successful clubs are happy to stay on less money as they want to win. The players that leave are either fringe players and/or are offered well above market to leave to a developing club

Even more recent, has been the trend of players asking to be traded and nominating a club that hinders the host club in getting a fair trade

The AFL needs to revise FA and also look at introducing some trading rules that allow clubs to have more of a say in where a player goes, especially when they’re still contracted
Then if a FA wants to go to a top 4 club, that club doesn't have the top 5/top 10 draft pick that the club trading the player out is seeking in return. You can't force another club trade you something it doesn't have. So often the compensation pick they get for letting the player go is better than what they will be able to get if they are able to force the club receiving the player to trade whatever draft picks it has. So often the top 4 club getting the free agent gets the player for nothing. The cost gets socialised amongst all the clubs. Which makes no sense. The club getting the FA needs to be forced to pay something for the player for the system to be functional.

Then the system can also be gamed by front loading a FA's new contract to bump up the value of the compo pick like Brisbane did with Daniher. And then trying to sneakily extend the contract afterwards to smooth the money out over multiple years.
 
Then if a FA wants to go to a top 4 club, that club doesn't have the top 5/top 10 draft pick that the club trading the player out is seeking in return. You can't force another club trade you something it doesn't have. So often the compensation pick they get for letting the player go is better than what they will be able to get if they are able to force the club receiving the player to trade whatever draft picks it has. So often the top 4 club getting the free agent gets the player for nothing. The cost gets socialised amongst all the clubs. Which makes no sense. The club getting the FA needs to be forced to pay something for the player for the system to be functional.

Then the system can also be gamed by front loading a FA's new contract to bump up the value of the compo pick like Brisbane did with Daniher. And then trying to sneakily extend the contract afterwards to smooth the money out over multiple years.
The NFL restrict teams in how many FA they can take if that make play offs

It would be easy to do

Example - finish top 4 and cannot offer a salary in the top 25% AFL wide

- finish top 8 and the number is top 40%

First thing they should stop is an UFA being traded to avoid loss of compo

Next they should look at each club on scrolling 2 year lens. Stops losing someone this year and getting compo but getting one for free the next year.
 
When are you anticipating the Tassie rape and pillage of the draft to begin? I'm assuming they will get early concessions like GWS did then most of the top 20 picks for 2 years.
I watch junior football and have talent view but am no expert on when and what the AFL will do with Tassie
 
I watch junior football and have talent view but am no expert on when and what the AFL will do with Tassie

Tassie really want it to happen for the 2026 season but I think it'll end up being either 2027 or 2028 for AFL entry. By my predictions that means the draft either starts getting ****ed with at the end of 2025 or 2026. So i'm really hoping Tassie comes in, in 2028 with VFL in 2027, similar to GWS concessions with minidraft in 2026 and then a ****load of first round picks in 2027 draft.
 

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Drafted in 2017. Same year as Allen and Ryan

(And Brander and Ainsworth but we don’t talk about them)

So it’s his 6th year at the club


Already felt he has had more than enough time to try and prove his worth but seeing his name as being drafted the same year alongside Allen and Ryan is damning.

I understand some players just have a laconic style but I can’t think of one time I’ve seen him actually busting his ass


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F/S and Academy picks always slip. Daicos at #4 and so on.

This is true and also why the 20% points deduction to match a bid should be scrapped as they’re already getting a discount of sorts
 
I've been having a think about the draft system and why it can take 10 years to do a full rebuild. I think a big part of the problem is that through the main draft system (ignoring all the extras like academies, F/S etc) all clubs get the same number of selections. This means that the only advantage of finishing outside the 8 is that you have access to the top 10 players. From there, the finalists get access to 11-18 (in reverse order) and all clubs have access to players from the second round later.

Sure, the lower finishers get to pick first, but that only means that the first 10 selected are off the table for a finalist. This creates big issues for a rebuilding club, as talent depth usually starts to thin out by the 3rd round. If you want to turn over your 40 man list in 4 seasons (ie bring in 10 new players a year), then you're going to be selecting a lot of players at the end of the draft (or rookie draft).

Trades and free agency could be an answer, but there are clear limitations to them. If you're already crap, it's unlikely you have much talent to trade and free agency is really hampered by geographic restrictions. The best talent is unlikely to go anywhere other than their home state or Melbourne.

I really liked the old system of priority picks, as it addressed the problem directly. If you were bad enough for long enough, you started to get extra first round selections (or end of first), which gave you more shots at the top end talent. You could then use trades to bring in the role players once you had the core talent in place.
The problem is tanking obviously -an extra top 3 pick can be a superstar. Imagine Melbourne dips in 2019/2020 in between making a prelim and winning a flag. They get something like Jamarra, Rowell + Jackson.
I think clubs should not be rewarded for gutting their list like Hawks have done. Gold Coast have always been horrible on field yet I don't think their extra 2nd rounders gifted to them have really worked to improve them at all. Anderson @#2 does obviously improve them in the long run but thats really a cherry on top for the GC as theres still 25 players to find.
 
When are you anticipating the Tassie rape and pillage of the draft to begin? I'm assuming they will get early concessions like GWS did then most of the top 20 picks for 2 years.

The business case for the Tas19 license references 2027 as the preferred inaugural season.

However, AFL HQ have said they will be doing nothing unless the federal government chips in $240M for a new boutique stadium in Hobart.

Considering the Tasmanian state government is wavering between being unable to decide where to put a new venue and not wanting one at all, this will no doubt be a process that could take some time and see some more political horse-trading yet.


Once that happens however, things will start to move very rapidly.

With government taking on the cost-associated risk, AFL HQ will grant the license and Tas19 will join the competition in 2027, playing at Bellerive and York Park until 2029 when the new stadium is complete for matches in Hobart. Home games are expected to be split 8/4 between Hobart and Launceston.


AFL HQ received the support of the [then] 16 clubs for an expansion team based in Western Sydney in March 2008. The next two years saw the redevelopment of the venues and off-field organisation and appointments (and the signing of I.Folau... :whistle:)

The license for GWS was officially granted in November 2010. They joined the competition two years later in 2012. In 2010 the new franchise was granted access to twelve 17 year-olds of their choosing from across the country that would play for the club in NEAFL in 2011, before going to AFL in 2012.
  • This list of 12 included Jeremy Cameron, D.Shiel and A.Treloar (and S.Tunbridge :sweatsmile:)

During 2011 they were able to exercise free agency on an off-contract player from each of the other clubs (Gold Coast excepted).
  • This yielded T.Scully, C.Ward and P.Davis among others like R.Palmer.

Then they could select two additional players from the 2012 draft crop in a "mini-draft" that were to be used as trade capital with other clubs. This in addition to receiving 9 of the first 15 picks. After trading out "mini-picks" J.O'Meara and B.Crouch, GWS ended up with 11 of the first 14 picks in the 2011 draft.
  • Which included J.Patton, T.Greene, S.Coniglio, W.Hoskin-Elliot, T.Adams, N.Haynes and D.Smith.

Similarly, in 2012 there was another "mini-draft" that provided trades in exchange for J.Martin and J.Hogan. This resulted in GWS having the first 3 picks in the national draft and two more inside the top 15.
  • Which were completely wasted apart from L.Whitfield.

No exceptional draft allowances that are additional to the rest of the competition have been provided to GWS after 2012.

However over the first five years of their existence (until 2016), GWS also benefitted from expanded list sizes and a larger salary cap ($1M extra during their first 3 seasons).


So taking that on-board, expect to see a Tas19 aligned representative in the VFL by 2025 and AFL by 2027; with the cream of the 2026 draft crop (likely 12-15 players) to be picked out early to help found the club.

Any player off-contract during 2026 (and possibly 2027) will be a potential free agent for Tas19.

2027 and 2028 are likely to see a return of the "mini-drafts" as well - and it can be expected that once again those "mini-picks" will be traded for more picks in the national draft, rather than for players. That's two players from each of the 2028 and 2029 draft crops that are compromised in addition to the bloodbath that will occur in 2027 and 2028 from the additional national draft picks Tas19 will be allocated.

Impact-wise, drafts between 2026 and 2029 are going to be annihilated. After 2025, the next uncompromised national draft is likely to be 2030.

During that period, "free agency" draft pick compensation may well be the best way for existing clubs to maintain a strong draft presence, as no doubt Tas19 will be given a honeymoon period of extra salary cap to lure mature players - in effect overpaying them to bring them on board, which should skew the "magic hidden formula" behind pick compensation towards higher bands.


Three drafts left then to secure a rebuild before the house waters down all the drinks.

Tick-tock tick-tock.
 
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This is true and also why the 20% points deduction to match a bid should be scrapped as they’re already getting a discount of sorts
True, but also i've always felt it limits you in choice. Say the traditional Hawks like their kickers, Richmond their pressure players. You are obliged to take your player at a certain point whether you would actually pick them for your game style. Also like GWS with Tom Green. The last thing they needed was another inside midfielder but were obliged to take him when Pickett may have been a better list fit.
 
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