Finals: yeah or nah?

[JAKLAUGHING]

I posted this on the 9th of July, thought it might be interesting to re-post it with the updates of resul



Cats
"8 Pointers" (1/4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (0/4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (0/5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 0/6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Giants
"8 Pointers" (1/6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (1/3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Tigers
Danger Games (1/3) - Eagles, Hawks, Nth
"8 Pointers" (2) - Saints, Dogs
Underdog Games ( 2) - Demons, Port (Away)


Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(0/4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Swans
"8Pointers (1/6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (1/5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (0/3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)




Based on the above, I would say with zero confidence that 5th -10th will be made up of some order of Geelong, Dogs, Carlton, Richmond, Bombers & Giants - hopefully in that order. Its crazy how much every result swings the end projections on a Ladder Predictor.


For example look at this variant below. This was my "result" of we win both our "8 pointers" & our 2 "Danger Games". The below is made up of a logic that the winning team is based on odds, form etc. It accounts for very little "shock results" & us winning both our 50/50 games - which is against the odds atm.

View attachment 1741347

If however i change the result of the Dogs Vs Giants game to be a "shock" win to the Giants (which is completely feasible for me), the Giants go to 5th & the Dogs drop to 10th. They literally swap spots without affecting any other teams positions. THATS how cut throat all these games are now.

For the teams 5th to 15th, they are basically having their own mini final series for the last 5 weeks of the season. Its going to be wild to see how it all plays out. The Giants are the team who i think might shock people & not only make the 8, but end up with a home final. For all the glory Scott, Ross & even Voss is getting over the resurgence of their teams - it might end up being Kingsley that is the one that really wins the battle. Its a guy like him & Fly that reinforce the notion that no matter how 2023 ends, we need to interview very seriously before hiring. Mini is bringing the same ethos than Dimma & we need to be sure that is definitely the best vision for the next surge

 

[RJK Tiger]

View attachment 1741374

i can tell you don't think mate - didn't need to post a gif to remind me

 

[Truetiger]

I posted this on the 9th of July, thought it might be interesting to re-post it with the updates of resul



Cats
"8 Pointers" (1/4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (0/4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (0/5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 0/6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Giants
"8 Pointers" (1/6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (1/3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Tigers
Danger Games (1/3) - Eagles, Hawks, Nth
"8 Pointers" (2) - Saints, Dogs
Underdog Games ( 2) - Demons, Port (Away)


Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(0/4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Swans
"8Pointers (1/6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (1/5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (0/3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)




Based on the above, I would say with zero confidence that 5th -10th will be made up of some order of Geelong, Dogs, Carlton, Richmond, Bombers & Giants - hopefully in that order. Its crazy how much every result swings the end projections on a Ladder Predictor.


For example look at this variant below. This was my "result" of we win both our "8 pointers" & our 2 "Danger Games". The below is made up of a logic that the winning team is based on odds, form etc. It accounts for very little "shock results" & us winning both our 50/50 games - which is against the odds atm.

View attachment 1741347

If however i change the result of the Dogs Vs Giants game to be a "shock" win to the Giants (which is completely feasible for me), the Giants go to 5th & the Dogs drop to 10th. They literally swap spots without affecting any other teams positions. THATS how cut throat all these games are now.

For the teams 5th to 15th, they are basically having their own mini final series for the last 5 weeks of the season. Its going to be wild to see how it all plays out. The Giants are the team who i think might shock people & not only make the 8, but end up with a home final. For all the glory Scott, Ross & even Voss is getting over the resurgence of their teams - it might end up being Kingsley that is the one that really wins the battle. Its a guy like him & Fly that reinforce the notion that no matter how 2023 ends, we need to interview very seriously before hiring. Mini is bringing the same ethos than Dimma & we need to be sure that is definitely the best vision for the next surge

For context - if i could have Mini or Kingsley as our next coach, I would take Kingsley

Nice work put into this . Don’t like the idea of Essendon or Carlton playing finals.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

It's so pointless doing ladder predictors

 

[bradydaw91]

I posted this on the 9th of July, thought it might be interesting to re-post it with the updates of resul



Cats
"8 Pointers" (1/4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (0/4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (0/5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 0/6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Giants
"8 Pointers" (1/6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (1/3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Tigers
Danger Games (1/3) - Eagles, Hawks, Nth
"8 Pointers" (2) - Saints, Dogs
Underdog Games ( 2) - Demons, Port (Away)


Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(0/4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Swans
"8Pointers (1/6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (1/5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (0/3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)




Based on the above, I would say with zero confidence that 5th -10th will be made up of some order of Geelong, Dogs, Carlton, Richmond, Bombers & Giants - hopefully in that order. Its crazy how much every result swings the end projections on a Ladder Predictor.


For example look at this variant below. This was my "result" of we win both our "8 pointers" & our 2 "Danger Games". The below is made up of a logic that the winning team is based on odds, form etc. It accounts for very little "shock results" & us winning both our 50/50 games - which is against the odds atm.

View attachment 1741347

If however i change the result of the Dogs Vs Giants game to be a "shock" win to the Giants (which is completely feasible for me), the Giants go to 5th & the Dogs drop to 10th. They literally swap spots without affecting any other teams positions. THATS how cut throat all these games are now.

For the teams 5th to 15th, they are basically having their own mini final series for the last 5 weeks of the season. Its going to be wild to see how it all plays out. The Giants are the team who i think might shock people & not only make the 8, but end up with a home final. For all the glory Scott, Ross & even Voss is getting over the resurgence of their teams - it might end up being Kingsley that is the one that really wins the battle. Its a guy like him & Fly that reinforce the notion that no matter how 2023 ends, we need to interview very seriously before hiring. Mini is bringing the same ethos than Dimma & we need to be sure that is definitely the best vision for the next surge

For context - if i could have Mini or Kingsley as our next coach, I would take Kingsley

I appreciate the colour coding. Can't wait for teams to be greyed out when they fall out of contention.

Seriously though, such an incredible finish to the year. I dont remember such a mid table logjam with so many teams (down to 15th) still vying for the final spots in the 8. 2013 and 2014 also had dramatic finishes but with less teams.

 

[Groupie_]

I appreciate the colour coding. Can't wait for teams to be greyed out when they fall out of contention.

Seriously though, such an incredible finish to the year. I dont remember such a mid table logjam with so many teams (down to 15th) still vying for the final spots in the 8. 2013 and 2014 also had dramatic finishes but with less teams.

its orchestrated

 

[bradydaw91]

its orchestrated

my boy be cooking

 

[domin8]

It's so pointless doing ladder predictors

Yep unless you have the rare ability of tipping 9 each week

 

[juss]

The Bombers games stuffed us at the time and it still has. That'll be the final 30 seconds of a game that defines our non-finals season.

 

[Groupie_]

The Bombers games stuffed us at the time and it still has. That'll be the final 30 seconds of a game that defines our non-finals season.

riewoldt and mansell

 

[STRONGandBALD]

The Bombers games stuffed us at the time and it still has. That'll be the final 30 seconds of a game that defines our non-finals season.

Think positive. Could be a blessing in disguise as it may make us finish 8th and play cats at the MCG instead of say bombers or Saints at Marvel. I’d rather our chances at the MCG especially against our bunnies.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Think positive. Could be a blessing in disguise as it may make us finish 8th and play cats at the MCG instead of say bombers or Saints at Marvel. I’d rather our chances at the MCG especially against our bunnies.

Bombers or Saints would be at the G not shitihad

 

[bradydaw91]

Bombers or Saints would be at the G not shitihad

Id be happy to play the 14th best team (according to Fox Footy's power rankings) at the G

 

[Del65166]

The Bombers games stuffed us at the time and it still has. That'll be the final 30 seconds of a game that defines our non-finals season.

That loss was the coach killer the club needed. The team has played way better since and probably in the 8 in 2 rounds

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

If we miss out Finals what a waste of prime Dusty!

 

[Growapair]

The good thing is, carlton and swans are so far back that I can't imagine them getting to 12 wins to threaten us with better %. Cats will make it though. Stkilda and one of essendon/dogs won't be making it.

This aged well lol

Blues were ahead of us on ladder by game and % when you wrote this on Saturday, weren't they?

 

[TigerImposter]

It's so pointless doing ladder predictors

Yeah they pi55 me off. All I know is all those betting agencies are making a killing this season with so many teams competing for 4 spots

 

[Growapair]

Yeah they pi55 me off. All I know is all those betting agencies are making a killing this season with so many teams competing for 4 spots

What have you got for this week TI? Unders or Overs

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

riewoldt and mansell

The former should've retired and the latter been delisted on the spot.

 

[TigerImposter]

What have you got for this week TI? Unders or Overs

don't bet on the footy mate . What are the undies and overalls for this weeks game mate?

 

[tiger_tough]

We can afford to drop two and should still make finals. Easily done.

 

[Growapair]

We can afford to drop two and should still make finals. Easily done.

Not if those two are Saints and Bulldogs

 

[TigerImposter]

Not if those two are Saints and Bulldogs

Exactly. There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet to be making outlandish statements. Jus keep winning is my motto with our percentage.

 

[tiger_tough]

Not if those two are Saints and Bulldogs

Yeah we'll take care of them

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

Need to beat Norf by at least 150 #eazycheezypeas