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Finals: yeah or nah?

Will we make Finals?


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Just did the Ladder Predictor. I was being conservative with our chances. Bloody tight. Didn't think I'd have St Kilda surviving but they have winnable games.

If it pans out like this, there's certainly a gulf. Cull them and go with a final 4.

ladder pr.png
 
Just did the Ladder Predictor. I was being conservative with our chances. Bloody tight. Didn't think I'd have St Kilda surviving but they have winnable games.

If it pans out like this, there's certainly a gulf. Cull them and go with a final 4.

View attachment 1742715
That’s some radical predictor you used there mate.
 

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Our best way in is for Essendon to beat Bulldogs Friday night, then it's likely we only have to beat Hawks, Dogs, Saints and North to get in. If the Bulldogs win Friday night it could get tricky where 4 wins may not be enough. It would also require the whole Marvel problem to just be a Dimma thing and that we can actually play well there. It seems unlikely.
 
Just did the Ladder Predictor. I was being conservative with our chances. Bloody tight. Didn't think I'd have St Kilda surviving but they have winnable games.

If it pans out like this, there's certainly a gulf. Cull them and go with a final 4.

View attachment 1742715

Why has everyone only played 22 games? You are missing a round and the Saints play Brissy away in the final week. That may knock them out.
 
Why has everyone only played 22 games? You are missing a round and the Saints play Brissy away in the final week. That may knock them out.
Good point. Thanks for pointing it out.

I’ll have to have another look at it. It gave me the finals lineup after that last round and I didn’t look at it that closely.

In that case, delicately placed with a round to go.
 
Just did the Ladder Predictor. I was being conservative with our chances. Bloody tight. Didn't think I'd have St Kilda surviving but they have winnable games.

If it pans out like this, there's certainly a gulf. Cull them and go with a final 4.

View attachment 1742715
Found the problem.

This is my updated version. Completely wrong obviously but demonstrates the closeness of it all and also that we are a realistic chance to sneak in.

ladder pr.png
 

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The race to the finals this year is utterly mental. Even though we keen winning game, it feels like every week another team finds a way above us. If the Swans can get the win away against the Bombers, it takes care of Essendon, but then Sydney become a real threat again. We gonna be like Dr Strange


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We need to get to 50 points minimum (12 1/2 wins), even then our % may cost us. Must beat one of Dees & Dogs, then beat StK & North. It could then hinge on Port in last round. Hopefully they have 2nd locked away & could be gettable.
 
I think we miss on the basis that I can’t see us beating both the dogs and ‘aints at Marvel - likely split that 50/50, beat the Roos

2 more wins for the season is my count - which won’t be a terrible outcome after losing the coach and having big sexy out of the team for much of the year

Jeez as much as the injectors have dropped a few lately they have a armchair ride over the next few weeks
 

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Other results not going our way this week. Looks like 13.5 will be required, gonna need a miracle.


3 wins vs 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th & 17th is not a miracle. I would say that is a minimum expectation for any team that makes the top 8

I still think 12.5 will do it - as long as 2 of those wins are against Saints & Dogs. not sure what results upset you. Dogs beat Bombers Lions beat Cats, Dee's beat Crows & GWS beat Gold Coast & Nth is a bee;s dick from doing as a huge solid. Except for GWS i reckon this is a perfect round for us. Swans & Blues basically beat tanking teams at this point.
 
3 wins vs 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th & 17th is not a miracle. I would say that is a minimum expectation for any team that makes the top 8

I still think 12.5 will do it - as long as 2 of those wins are against Saints & Dogs. not sure what results upset you. Dogs beat Bombers Lions beat Cats, Dee's beat Crows & GWS beat Gold Coast & Nth is a bee;s dick from doing as a huge solid. Except for GWS i reckon this is a perfect round for us. Swans & Blues basically beat tanking teams at this point.

We will almost certainly need 4 wins. The Bulldogs winning wasn't good for us. They should get to 13 now even if we beat them. They will beat GWS, West Coast and Hawthorn. Likewise Sydney losing and being done would have been handy. If those 2 went the other way 12.5 would have been enough. The winner of Sydney v Essendon has a real shot at 13 (Swans 12.5 with a better % than us). Im not even including GWS, who if they did beat the Dogs also become a problem. St Kilda are done, they probably wont win again. Id expect Carlton and Geelong to get atleast 12.5 with a better % also.

It probably doesnt matter as on yesterdays form the next 2 matches would be beyond us. Mini better have some big plan for Marvel, not just bring in everyone tall and play the slowest possible lineup like Dimma used to love.
 
I think saints and North are wins now

Just need to pinch one more out of Dogs at marvel, Dees at the MCG and Port away.

Bullish about our chances against the Dees tbh. Win and we are in finals imo
 
We need to get to 50 points minimum (12 1/2 wins), even then our % may cost us. Must beat one of Dees & Dogs, then beat StK & North. It could then hinge on Port in last round. Hopefully they have 2nd locked away & could be gettable.

We are good at AO too with a dead rubber game for them we could win it for sure.
 
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