Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[gogeelongcats]

On Sen1116 they were saying the clubs would change the rule because Geelong had 23-25 father-sons coming up.

 

[BORIS332]

Fair enough.

The biggest issue is using games played for young players. It makes older players that just make the cutoff appear way more valuable than young players because they've had the opportunity to play more games. So Paddy Dow (76 games) is rated a better pick than anyone picked in the last 3 drafts (Daicos, Sheezel, Amiss, etc).

Trading Kelly and Clark means we've got very little left in the 2017-18 drafts and much more in 2020. Then SDK who looks great from 2019 only played 1 game in his first 2 years again artificially lowering the games played compared to the quality of player.

We might have lost guys like Kelly, Clark, Stephens, Fogarty, and Fort to other clubs. We might have picked KP players like SDK who take longer to establish themselves. We might have had later picks and had to take a punt on roughies.

The fact is we've had fewer games out of the players we've drafted in that five-year period compared to most other clubs. That's all the graph is saying.

That might be the reason we have an older list profile, or maybe our older list profile is the reason we haven't developed these draftees.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The fact is we've had fewer games out of the players we've drafted in that five-year period compared to most other clubs. That's all the graph is saying.

That might be the reason we have an older list profile, or maybe our older list profile is the reason we haven't developed these draftees.

I get what the graph is saying. You just seem to be reading a lot into a poorly thought out measure.

"We haven't developed these draftees" is just wrong. What this graph really says is "if you ignore Kelly and treat draftees recruited in 2017 and 2018 as worth way more than draftees since 2020 then we haven't developed these draftees well". Which I guess is true. If you ignore Kelly and Clark we objectively had ordinary drafts in 2017 and 2018. But our group of players from 2019 and 2020 looks superb.

 

[Hinkley29]

Not so sure about that. The growth in our population is from migrants, and migrant families having kids.

The African community has taken to the game, and is probably quite highly overrepresented in the AFL based upon numbers in the community.

Most of the population growth though is from the sub continent and east Asia and there is practically zero players coming through from those communities and there never has been because sport is a very low priority culturally for them.

The last sentence of your post is highly disputable.

 

[Hamingja]

The last sentence of your post is highly disputable.

Which part of it?

https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/country-profiles/profiles

Now name me some AFL players from Indian and Chinese heritage......Lin Jong had Taiwanese background, I can't think of anyone else.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Which part of it?

https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/country-profiles/profiles

View attachment 1864114

Now name me some AFL players from Indian and Chinese heritage......Lin Jong had Taiwanese background, I can't think of anyone else.

Taking China's lack of AFL players and concluding that "sport is a very low priority culturally for them" feels a bit like taking Australia's lack of world class ping pong players and concluding the same about us.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Would be harsh to cut a KPF (Foster) after only two seasons on the list. Especially after his first year was interrupted by injury.

Plus I'd like to see him as a defender a bit first. See what we've got

 

[Turbocat]

Probably unfair to speculate but if I was to guess who leaves our list at the end of next season it would be - Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy (all retired), Hardie, Foster, Clohesy, Parfitt (all delisted).

Thats a fair assesment. I know you will have an element of plus or minus in that... but the facts are if we get one players from Hardie, Foster, Clohesy ..we will be doing well. I think Clohesy looked a little small when he played. Parfitt is an interesting one. Is he going to be one of these guys that goes elsewhere and ups the output? Or does he see the new talent coming in and make 2024 a big year for himself. The last couple of games showed what he could be for us

 

[Turbocat]

Would be harsh to cut a KPF (Foster) after only two seasons on the list. Especially after his first year was interrupted by injury.

Sometimes hard choices are made. There have been plenty of guys who have felt the razor early. He needs to do something to elevate himself. He is a good kick and mark... is that enough?

Probably gets down to who else we add. Can we see Foster playing 1's in 2024?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Foster intrigues me. His first quarter of VFL footy was unbelievable. Carey like domination. He only showed the odd glimpse after that. But there's something there. He looked a more natural forward to me than Neale actually.

 

[Turbocat]

If Rohan retires then perhaps that saves one of the youngsters from being delisted for at least a further year. Rohan was terrific in 2022. Was his best year of footy in his career. This year was a disaster like a number. If he has a similar experience with injury again it’s probably time to hang up the boots. We’ll see.

Kolo is the football equivalent of a cockroach. He will be around next year even if he’s been deplorable all season. I’d hope his position may be taken by Murdoch.

Funny but true

 

[Turbocat]

On Sen1116 they were saying the clubs would change the rule because Geelong had 23-25 father-sons coming up.

deflection from Brisbane. WE are yet to have a #1 pick Father Son ... and its more than likely that we get 1 from 3 in that FSon group. No one brings up Riccardi or Brownless ..etc.. its always Hawkins or Scarlett. Id give up FSon ina heart beat to be able to take one local kid each year

 

[Shadow89]

Clohesy is highly rated and i think will stay. The others are fairly likely with the 3 retirements plus hardie foster and parf will find another home as FA.
I also think murdoch goes unless he gets games and dempsey will push rohan out so he will retire, and i think its bews last year as well hes ooc and declining. Kolo is also ooc but our lack of kpds will save him.
I think danger and duncan are also some chance to retire if they get more injuries next year.

I can easily see us turning over 10 players next year so we will need to hit the FA market hard to fill gaps.

Reckon Bews will stay on as depth given he'll only be 30, but, I definitely think that there's a chance we have 8+ players - similar to this year.

Most of us on here (yourself included) who follow this sort of thing, forecasted that this year and next would basically change our entire salary cap and be 'goodbye' to the old era.

For mine, I could see them keeping Danger for a couple of extra years up forward, whole we transition the forward line. Would be different in that we would make him do an entire pre-season as a forward, rather than pinch hitting and just getting in the way a lot of the time, haha.

Overall, I reckon these will be our list changes come end of 2024:

Parfitt, Hawkins, Duncan, Rohan, Stanley, Foster, Murdoch, Hardie, Jeka (9 total). Jeka and Duncan are the only ones I'd be unsure of, due to how they might perform in '24. Reckon Willis and Clohesy get more time due to showing some signs - but could also go too if we want to keep others.

Biggest turnover in recent memory coming up - and will truly be the end of an era. Can't see any less than 7 changes, and could be as much as 10-12.

 

[And_ROOS]

On Sen1116 they were saying the clubs would change the rule because Geelong had 23-25 father-sons coming up.

Is anyone really surprised? Most rules tend to change while/after we have had success. Theres only been one rule to change something we were on the bad side of, and that was the rushed behind rule.

But other rules come in to stop us in one form or another. They want to change player trades after we got a GC player and pick 7. They changed F/S because how well we did back in the early 2000s. They now want to change F/S because we likely have a lot of quality F/S picks coming up.

Freo are pissed at the announcement too, as the Freo person I know has said Pav and Mundys kids are going to be stars, so watch the rules change just in time for them to have to pay a high amount for them meanwhile Pies have got the Daicos boys cheap, and other teams are abusing the academy system.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

deflection from Brisbane. WE are yet to have a #1 pick Father Son ... and its more than likely that we get 1 from 3 in that FSon group. No one brings up Riccardi or Brownless ..etc.. its always Hawkins or Scarlett. Id give up FSon ina heart beat to be able to take one local kid each year

Technically correct but Hawkins would have been selected at the Nick Daicos range

 

[Turbocat]

Looks like the Falcons options might be thin in 2024 as well. We probably keep an eye on Vic Country kids in general

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[dangerwood]

Foster intrigues me. His first quarter of VFL footy was unbelievable. Carey like domination. He only showed the odd glimpse after that. But there's something there. He looked a more natural forward to me than Neale actually.

It's really hard to judge our forwards in the VFL. I thought both Neale and Foster were intriguing prospects when drafted but since playing in our VFL they have shown glimpses but nothing to be confident about....however the ball movement is so stifling at times it's hard to know if their performance is reflective of their capability or the delivery.

As an experiment I'd like to see Hawk play a VFL game (this is purely speculative, I don't want to drop him). If you could just get it in there he'd monster he's opponent, I'm just not convinced we can......this is prior to George Stevens, Mannagh etc. Will be interesting to see if Foster plays a bit better with what I'm assuming will be a better midfield next year.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Technically correct but Hawkins would have been selected at the Nick Daicos range

Yep. Under current rules there likely would've been only 1 player we missed out on due to having to match father-son biss. So no biggie.





Joel Selwood never amounted to much anyway did he?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Reckon Bews will stay on as depth given he'll only be 30, but, I definitely think that there's a chance we have 8+ players - similar to this year.

Most of us on here (yourself included) who follow this sort of thing, forecasted that this year and next would basically change our entire salary cap and be 'goodbye' to the old era.

For mine, I could see them keeping Danger for a couple of extra years up forward, whole we transition the forward line. Would be different in that we would make him do an entire pre-season as a forward, rather than pinch hitting and just getting in the way a lot of the time, haha.

Overall, I reckon these will be our list changes come end of 2024:

Parfitt, Hawkins, Duncan, Rohan, Stanley, Foster, Murdoch, Hardie, Jeka (9 total). Jeka and Duncan are the only ones I'd be unsure of, due to how they might perform in '24. Reckon Willis and Clohesy get more time due to showing some signs - but could also go too if we want to keep others.

Biggest turnover in recent memory coming up - and will truly be the end of an era. Can't see any less than 7 changes, and could be as much as 10-12.

I used to subscribe to the "Dangerfield forward" semi-retirement plan but now I'm not so sure. We now have a really great forward line. Is he going to be effective in the role? Are we just playing him for those bursts in the middle and losing out on a more capable forward?

I dunno. I'm starting fall out of love with the idea

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yep. Under current rules there likely would've been only 1 player we missed out on due to having to match father-son biss. So no biggie.





Joel Selwood never amounted to much anyway did he?

When you're the reason for the rule

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It's really hard to judge our forwards in the VFL. I thought both Neale and Foster were intriguing prospects when drafted but since playing in our VFL they have shown glimpses but nothing to be confident about....however the ball movement is so stifling at times it's hard to know if their performance is reflective of their capability or the delivery.

As an experiment I'd like to see Hawk play a VFL game (this is purely speculative, I don't want to drop him). If you could just get it in there he'd monster he's opponent, I'm just not convinced we can......this is prior to George Stevens, Mannagh etc. Will be interesting to see if Foster plays a bit better with what I'm assuming will be a better midfield next year.

It's hard to understate how excited I am to watch some of our vfl mids sending it forward this year.

 

[year of the cat]

Looks like the Falcons options might be thin in 2024 as well. We probably keep an eye on Vic Country kids in general

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I’ve seen a bit of Jesse Datoli - my nephew has played in the same club team since they were young. He’s a strong lad, beautiful kick but I wonder about how he’ll test for both speed and endurance? I know my nephew has him easily covered in the 2km. Smart footballer though.

 

[dangerwood]

I used to subscribe to the "Dangerfield forward" semi-retirement plan but now I'm not so sure. We now have a really great forward line. Is he going to be effective in the role? Are we just playing him for those bursts in the middle and losing out on a more capable forward?

I dunno. I'm starting fall out of love with the idea

As he's lost athleticism I reckon he's lost his threat as a forward. Haven't completely burnt the idea but like you I'm not sure he'll have a prolonged career as a forward.

 

[Footy Smarts]

It's really hard to judge our forwards in the VFL. I thought both Neale and Foster were intriguing prospects when drafted but since playing in our VFL they have shown glimpses but nothing to be confident about....however the ball movement is so stifling at times it's hard to know if their performance is reflective of their capability or the delivery.

As an experiment I'd like to see Hawk play a VFL game (this is purely speculative, I don't want to drop him). If you could just get it in there he'd monster he's opponent, I'm just not convinced we can......this is prior to George Stevens, Mannagh etc. Will be interesting to see if Foster plays a bit better with what I'm assuming will be a better midfield next year.

Yeah it's not easy to judge. But I thought Foster moved to great spots, attacked the ball in the air well, had good body positioning, was really creative with his kicking, etc. But does he have the physical prowess to stand out at AFL level?

Neale looks to me like a 203cm winger. Which is a weird thing to say. But that seems to fit his strengths.

 

[And_ROOS]

As he's lost athleticism I reckon he's lost his threat as a forward. Haven't completely burnt the idea but like you I'm not sure he'll have a prolonged career as a forward.

His field kicking is elite, I don't know why we couldn't just have him run off half back?

Bursts there suit him, his still got a long kick and he is still an elite ball user. Its better there then having him kick at 50% accuracy or something sitting forward.