List Mgmt. 2024 List Mgmt

[akaifu]

The thing that has surprised me with him is he looks really solidly built. Has put on some muscle since last year. I think he's been playing as a half forward at times so his numbers are actually looking decent. Hopefully he can build. Sandy looks like a fun place to play at the moment, let's hope we keep winning and developing these kids.

Yep, he’s a lot bigger than he was at u18s. Wish Clark knew how to bulk like that.

Hotton has been a 17 disposal 1 goal guy all year so hopefully he can boost that to 20 and 1.5 asap which would get him an AFL game imo

With the squad at almost Full fitness (touch wood), Sandy is thriving. And that was with Seb, Membrey, Stocker all managed so they’ll get another 3 AFL players this week, plus Higgins replacement, Arie and Butler. Literally almost a better watch than St Kilda atm

 

[sammm]

Thats why creating list spots will be so difficult this year...there are no monties to be delisted.

the next problem will be the into of Tasmania in 2028, so that means from 2026 or 2027 probably compromised drafts for several years.

 

[botts]

the next problem will be the into of Tasmania in 2028, so that means from 2026 or 2027 probably compromised drafts for several years.

One of the other issues is tassy will be allowed to poach players. You can imagine they will try for one of phillipou, Owens, nas or king. That would royally screw us

 

[Miha]

Just on the Zebs game, yes Richmond side is cooked with injuries but of the 14 odd AFL listed players at Sandy, 7 have played 1 game of AFL which was Campbell in 2022.

 

[joydivision22]

Your top 5 pick could end up being a Paddy Dow, Farren Ray or Aaron Fiora type. No guarantees they will be elite.

Drafting a 'bust' in the top 5 is statistically the hardest thing to do. Finding a star level player is around a 60-80% chance every year if you have 1 pick. If you have 2 top 5 picks in one year, you're almost certain to find at least 1 star player and very likely 2 star players

 

[phantom13]

Drafting a 'bust' in the top 5 is statistically the hardest thing to do. Finding a star level player is around a 60-80% chance every year if you have 1 pick. If you have 2 top 5 picks in one year, you're almost certain to find at least 1 star player and very likely 2 star players

This feels wildly wrong, might spend some time this afternoon on Wiki.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Drafting a 'bust' in the top 5 is statistically the hardest thing to do. Finding a star level player is around a 60-80% chance every year if you have 1 pick. If you have 2 top 5 picks in one year, you're almost certain to find at least 1 star player and very likely 2 star players

Well shit!!! , Trout should go on a TV show.
He has a real talent.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

This feels wildly wrong, might spend some time this afternoon on Wiki.

1: Tom Boyd.
2: Josh Kelly
3: Jack Billings.
4: Marcus Bontempelli.
5: Kade Kolodjashsinkljllkjlkj;kjlkj

 

[phantom13]

Just looking at 2000-2002 and by generous definition of "star" its 40-60%

2000 - Roo, Kozi, Didak, Luke Livingston

Luke Livingston

Age

43

Ht

192cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.7

2star

K

3.8

1star

HB

2.9

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

6.6

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

0.6

3star

and Andrew McDougall

Andrew Mcdougall

Age

42

Ht

197cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.9

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.2

3star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.4

3star

T

0.4

3star

. Id say Roo and Didak were stars so thats 40%
2001 - Hodge, Ball, Judd, Polak, Sampi. Id say Hodge and Judd so thats 40% id probably give you Ball.
2002 - Goddard, Wells, Brennan, Walsh, McVeigh. Eeeeeeesh. Goddard and Wells stars? McVeigh captain, flag bnf. Lets say 2.

Will continue this afternoon

 

[joydivision22]

The range I think I used was 2012-2018. Have to use a 6-8 year sample size, any less there’s some outliers and any more factors in changes in drafting trends etc

 

[joydivision22]

I came up with a 65% hit rate for top 5 picks over a 7 year period. Posted the data on bf somewhere but that’s the headline of it

 

[phantom13]

The range I think I used was 2012-2018. Have to use a 6-8 year sample size, any less there’s some outliers and any more factors in changes in drafting trends etc

If I can be bothered I’ll do 2000-2023 but I’m already staring down Billings and MacCartin

 

[joydivision22]

If I can be bothered I’ll do 2000-2023 but I’m already staring down Billings and MacCartin

max 8 years i reckon for an accurate rolling average. 2000 drafting was much worse generally and would pull down the ave of current drafting imo

 

[phantom13]

max 8 years i reckon for an accurate rolling average. 2000 drafting was much worse generally and would pull down the ave of current drafting imo

You’re advocating for less data… it’s not like we didn’t have dedicated talent scouts and lost managers in 2000.
Looks like confirmation bias.

I’ll do 2000-2023 and break it into 2000-2010 and then 2010-2023. My guess is there won’t be a huge difference in numbers between those two periods.

 

[phantom13]

Scratch that will do til 2020. Can’t assess “star” from then on cause it’s pure speculation.

 

[joydivision22]

You’re advocating for less data… it’s not like we didn’t have dedicated talent scouts and lost managers in 2000.
Looks like confirmation bias.

I’ll do 2000-2023 and break it into 2000-2010 and then 2010-2023. My guess is there won’t be a huge difference in numbers between those two periods.

Well would be interesting to determine if there is a gap between decades actually. I presumed on that point with recruiters much more reliant on 'eye' rather than data and more modern projection approaches.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I came up with a 65% hit rate for top 5 picks over a 7 year period. Posted the data on bf somewhere but that’s the headline of it

So a bit better than tossing a coin.

 

[joydivision22]

2020 (40%)

• Ugle-Hagen
• Thilthorpe (only just..reckon he will be good still)
• Phillips
• McDonald
• Campbell (Probably could still be okay but not currently)

2019 (80%)

• Rowell
• Anderson
• Jackson
• Ash
• Stephens

2018 (100%)

• Walsh
• Lukocious
• Rankine
• King (our only hit in 24 years)
• Rozee

2017 (80%)

• Rayner (I’ve included him as a hit on recent form but could go either way)
• Brayshaw
• Dow
• LDU
• Cerra

2016 (60%)

• McGrath
• Taranto
• McCluggage
• Ainsworth
• Setterfield

2015 (80%)

• Weitering
• Schache
• Mills
• Oliver
• Parish

2014 (40%) probably would’ve been 60% if Brayshaw didn’t retire

• McCartin
• Petracca
• Brayshaw
• Pickett
• De Goey

2013 (40%)

• Boyd
• Kelly
• Billings
• Bontempelli
• KK

8 year average = 65%

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Wow 2012 was bad.

 

[joydivision22]

once you move out of the top 5, it is a pure lottery. The only way St.K (especially us) is going to build a top line midfield is through top 5 picks. We can't convince them to come later, buy them or draft them withought enormous luck which happened nearly 25 years ago now with Hayes & Dal Santo back of first round picks. Goddard was no 1 of course. To me, if Battle has to be moved on to secure one, thanksk and good luck

 

[Broski]

I've just read the VFL player review and it was interesting to see that Angus McLennan is "AFL ready". Seems like a bloke who doesn't lose many contests and does everything pretty well. I know he's not as exciting as others, but it seems like he has a future.

Also, another player review that stood out was Hugo Garcia. Obviously had a monster game, but the coaching staff must love his intensity around the ball. I know he probably can't do it at AFL level yet, but looks a steal from last year's draft.

 

[joydivision22]

once you move out of the top 5, it is a pure lottery. The only way St.K (especially us) is going to build a top line midfield is through top 5 picks. We can't convince them to come later, buy them or draft them withought enormous luck which happened nearly 25 years ago now with Hayes & Dal Santo back of first round picks. Goddard was no 1 of course. To me, if Battle has to be moved on to secure one, thanksk and good luck

There is some irony here in that this was the deciding reasoning (instead replace top line midfield with gun key forward) which led to us recruiting paddy over trac lol

 

[phantom13]

Think we have fairly different definition of star.

 

[gringo2011]

once you move out of the top 5, it is a pure lottery. The only way St.K (especially us) is going to build a top line midfield is through top 5 picks. We can't convince them to come later, buy them or draft them withought enormous luck which happened nearly 25 years ago now with Hayes & Dal Santo back of first round picks. Goddard was no 1 of course. To me, if Battle has to be moved on to secure one, thanksk and good luck

I think there is a hit a miss list with percentages per pick somewhere. I think pick 6 or 7 are the highest hit rate and one is the worst among good ones. Statically anomalies are interesting. It’s still a bit of a gamble to go down. North have had heaps of top picks and only now starting to bear fruit. Same with Carlton for years.

 

[gringo2011]

There is some irony here in that this was the deciding reasoning (instead replace top line midfield with gun key forward) which led to us recruiting paddy over trac lol

Throwing away mid career players for picks with an average list is kicking the cliff further down the road.