Media Swans Talk in the Media 2024

[Ticky009]

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[Ticky009]

Swans talk starts 7:05 mins into the podcast

 

[mcs095]

Good question! The pack behind us have been pretty inconsistent so it's hard to predict. They are two games behind 8th but have decent %.
In the run home they play 4 teams currently in the 8. Win a couple of those plus the games they "should" win and they can certainly make it.
Making top 4 is also possible because it's only one game between 4th and 8th at the moment.

Squiggle still rates them pretty highly, and I trust in general its measures of where the potential of teams sit (though it has its outliers at times too).

I don't think they can even make the GF if they don't make the top 4 - but I think they would be the most likely major trouble maker from the bottom 4 (assuming finish 5th or 6th - can't see them doing much from 7th/8th).

Their draw to come is relatively kind too. Collingwood away at the G is a tough one. Also have us but at home. Of other teams potentially in the top echelon later on, have Essendon, Melbourne and GWS - but all at home. Anywhere between 1-4 and 4-1 would not surprise me across those games.

In terms of speed bumps (on 2024 form) for decent teams - they have St Kilda Home and Away, Adelaide at Home, West Coast Away.

And then there are those tricky ones - that they probably should win, but could easily drop. Port Away next week, Suns in the derby later in the season away.

Assuming you will need 16 wins for the top 4 (given its a 23 game season). They need to win every game to reach 16.5 wins for the season. Possible but very unlikely.

Now we know how many teams are taking wins off each other in that middle group. Maybe 15 wins might be enough. They still then need to win 10 of 11 to make top 4 from here.

Possible - but would take an immense run of form to do it, and then have to carry it into the finals. They have a squad good enough to do it, and a kind enough draw to some degree. But any slip ups now, especially against other mid tier teams, would likely be fatal.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Squiggle still rates them pretty highly, and I trust in general its measures of where the potential of teams sit (though it has its outliers at times too).

I don't think they can even make the GF if they don't make the top 4 - but I think they would be the most likely major trouble maker from the bottom 4 (assuming finish 5th or 6th - can't see them doing much from 7th/8th).

Their draw to come is relatively kind too. Collingwood away at the G is a tough one. Also have us but at home. Of other teams potentially in the top echelon later on, have Essendon, Melbourne and GWS - but all at home. Anywhere between 1-4 and 4-1 would not surprise me across those games.

In terms of speed bumps (on 2024 form) for decent teams - they have St Kilda Home and Away, Adelaide at Home, West Coast Away.

And then there are those tricky ones - that they probably should win, but could easily drop. Port Away next week, Suns in the derby later in the season away.

Assuming you will need 16 wins for the top 4 (given its a 23 game season). They need to win every game to reach 16.5 wins for the season. Possible but very unlikely.

Now we know how many teams are taking wins off each other in that middle group. Maybe 15 wins might be enough. They still then need to win 10 of 11 to make top 4 from here.

Possible - but would take an immense run of form to do it, and then have to carry it into the finals. They have a squad good enough to do it, and a kind enough draw to some degree. But any slip ups now, especially against other mid tier teams, would likely be fatal.

After 12 or 13 rounds 4th, 5th and 6th are all on 8 wins. So 10 or 11 games left.
With the crazy logjam and lowish percentages I think it's POSSIBLE (not very likely) that 14 wins might get you 4th on %. 15 a big chance.

 

[DeathlyAccurate]

I honestly reckon Kingy would be a blast on here if he ever chooses to make himself known.

100% he has a account

Pretty sure he’s been saying we’ll piss it in every week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Taylor on RSN Breakfast this morning:


Power Rankings:

AFL’s dream scenario with biggest Grand Final possible looming large: Power Rankings

All-time AFL dream coming to life as biggest GF possible looms large: Power Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

What they got right and wrong: Each club’s wins and woes from Round 13

The positives and negatives from the weekend.

www.sen.com.au

Lyon and Watson’s biggest surprises of 2024 so far

The surprises of the season.

www.sen.com.au

Sliding Drawers - Round 14 - The Mongrel Punt

What, you were expecting Sliding Doors? We don't do that, here. Jimmy Ayres is all about the Drawers... and they're sliding into Round 14

themongrelpunt.com

 

[Jewelsbon]

Taylor on RSN Breakfast this morning:

I love that he included Rowie when talking about our star midfield group, upsets me that his name is never mentioned when the plaudits are being thrown around.

 

[bedford]

Whaterley talking to the Dogs CEO had to bring up our byes and the disadvantage to them

 

[RUNVS]

Whaterley talking to the Dogs CEO had to bring up our byes and the disadvantage to them

Not sure how, we played the Bulldogs around a month ago.

 

[Ticky009]

Whaterley talking to the Dogs CEO had to bring up our byes and the disadvantage to them

No mention of their 5 games in a row at Marvel?

 

[SM]

Not sure how, we played the Bulldogs around a month ago.

They just played the Lions who have had two byes.

 

[Ticky009]

Hey all, I've hijacked Adnico26Parker early post for todays Media Thread - there's a plethora of articles there.

Mostly just bits & pieces of larger articles. Search under Threadmarks for Todays Media thread.

 

[Stencorp69]

..

He has some reasonable points (especially about backline depth), but then I think the obvious bit he is missing is important too.

Yes, other teams will improve from here and come hard. But is there any tangible evidence to say we are playing at our peak level yet?

..

I Agree,

Regarding backline depth - I think we should be OK this year (but will need to plan to replace Rampe soon) and, depending on injuries, when Mills gets back I am hoping they position him down back which will help our defense. Fox is still to come back so while our back aren't as strong as the midfield they aren't weak.

In terms of improvement we are pretty much only playing our best for half a game - 2nd and 3rd quarters and that is enough to win by 4 to 8 goals against top 8 sides. Injuries not withstanding, from here on in the issues will be between the ears on whether we secure the flag.

 

[tombomb]

Whaterley talking to the Dogs CEO had to bring up our byes and the disadvantage to them

Did he bring up the dogs travelling three times in 13 rounds or did they run out of time?

 

[Jewelsbon]

Did he bring up the dogs travelling three times in 13 rounds or did they run out of time?

Of course not, wouldn't suit the narrative

 

[bloodsbigot]

Not sure how, we played the Bulldogs around a month ago.

It's the bulldogs. They like milking any advantage they can get no matter how underhanded it is.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

I Agree,

Regarding backline depth - I think we should be OK this year (but will need to plan to replace Rampe soon) and, depending on injuries, when Mills gets back I am hoping they position him down back which will help our defense. Fox is still to come back so while our back aren't as strong as the midfield they aren't weak.

In terms of improvement we are pretty much only playing our best for half a game - 2nd and 3rd quarters and that is enough to win by 4 to 8 goals against top 8 sides. Injuries not withstanding, from here on in the issues will be between the ears on whether we secure the flag.

Huge upside left for the team.

The forwards Hydra whilst very effective still haven’t fully clicked. We saw signs from Joel on Sunday how dangerous that can be when it does. Imagine the 3 of them clunking big marks and converting in finals.

Mills/Parker - when fully fit are massive ins. Hard nuts, organisers, leaders and good tacklers / hard ball gets. Mills in defence might allow others to be unleashed more often. Blakey is like the Ferrari in the garage at times. Free the Liz, lol ! They can also be used potentially to support JJ with tagging:

Paps/wicks and Will. We’ve only just seen Paps get off the chain. their forward pressure is also building nicely.


Finally, they’ve been at times playing the rope a dope / Rocky Balboa style where everyone throws everything at them early then are gassed out by the second quarter. I expect them to start hard, build a massive lead and break other teams along the way.

Bullish !

 

[Swannie0307]

For those of you who have Instagram, this is why Chad won’t be leaving us anytime soon

 

[Jewelsbon]

For those of you who have Instagram, this is why Chad won’t be leaving us anytime soon

Pick 39 and pick 32

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Horse's weekly presser (some deserved praise for Brodie):

 

[the hypnotoad]

The way Gerald was thinking is spot on as tagging out one or two of our big 3 also takes away a lot of scoring power overall.

Some coach is going to try it not sure which one.

Im actually more confident in our defence as the weeks go on Melican/Rampe have been terrific

as many have said, it would be impossible to tag all three of heeney, gulden and warner, but even if a team could shut down any two of them, we have other options ... mcinerney, blakey and florent can attack from the back half, papley can rotate through the middle, we have marking forwards drifting halfway up the ground to link up ...
i just don't see much worth in the simple idea that shutting down any two of those three (three is impossible!) will stop us, not this team
and the defence seems to have handled most hiccups so far, covering for mccartin being one ... we've conceded some big quarter scores but as a unit, they seem to almost change shape to slow down opponents who get on a roll
and i agree, i think melican and rampe have been enormous holding everything together, and cunningham and roberts have been really important, and of course blakey is blakey, a constant attacking threat but also a really much improved and brave defender who has fantastic timing in both attack and defence
and lloyd, as a kind of utility, is turning out the best version of lloyd in at least five years!
with mccartin back healthy, francis as back-up, and the luxury of what to do with mills, based on the season so far i dunno how you get too harsh on our defence

 

[the hypnotoad]

One things for sure, if we beat either the blues or pies in a prelim the commentators will be deflated as all hell for not getting their coveted blues Vs pies grannie.

that'll be the icing on the cake!

 

[the hypnotoad]

Blues, Pies and Cats can all give it a shake if they put their best team on the paddock in good form. Guys like Hawkins can lift for one last huzzah! Our lack of size at the back could bite us with Blues or Cats. Less worried about Pies with chaosball. Getting to the GF in two is important.

don't write off the giants ... not yet

 

[the hypnotoad]

I'm sure he does.

He has some reasonable points (especially about backline depth), but then I think the obvious bit he is missing is important too.

Yes, other teams will improve from here and come hard. But is there any tangible evidence to say we are playing at our peak level yet?

We've played some amazing footy this season - no one should doubt that. Have we put together multiple performances where we've been on for all four quarters - nope. Have we let good teams take a big lead on a couple of occasions, and then proverbially whipped them when we woke up - sure have. Have we seen our full strength midfield group yep - sure haven't. Have we got our club captain to come back in at some point, and another experienced warrior up our sleeve if needed - sure have.

All that says to me is that we have massive room for further improvement in performance levels too. Maybe we won't peak much further, but I fancy there are a few more gears to come from here.

As good as some other teams are (especially dickhead Mcguire's mob, who are looming large) - I think our ceiling this year, if we improve as one would hope we can from here, is higher than any other team to this point looks like getting anywhere near close.

That may well not win a flag in the end - we know too well how hard it is to get it all right on the day that matters, let alone the prelim final weekend which can be the toughest of them all.

But if we get to the level I think we can, and play somewhere near that on Grand Final day if we are lucky to make it that far - then it is going to take a colossal effort from another team to stop us walking away with the cup. Not saying it can't happen - but I've not convinced any other team can reach that level this season etiher.

well, david king said so a couple of weeks back

i agree with everything you've said ... and i think it's quite disrespectful and short-sighted to suggest this sydney team has in any way peaked, for all the reasons you've listed (although i don't really give a shite what the media heads think)

we have played the best football of the season on an almost weekly basis, and that level has been consistently above that of every other team
yet we are still only 12-14 weeks into our first season with grundy, adams and jordon, and all of them seem to be improving, which logically can really only mean the team around them is still improving, and that does seems to be proven each week ...
at this stage, we're not 2023 collingwood falling over the line every week, all the way to the premiership
every time we've been set a serious challenge in individual games we've risen to it, and usually in some damn fine style!
our match-winning core players are mostly young, and the brownlow favourite is one of our elder statesmen at 28!

and do you think among the players, the likes of warner, gulden, papley, mcnerney, rowbottom, mcdonald, amartey (the game is really starting to click with him right now, like mclean late last season), that there's some thought that this is as good as they can be!?!
no chance! they're flying, they know how good they are now, and you can be absolutely certain this team believes it can get much better yet

 

[caesar88]

as many have said, it would be impossible to tag all three of heeney, gulden and warner, but even if a team could shut down any two of them, we have other options ... mcinerney, blakey and florent can attack from the back half, papley can rotate through the middle, we have marking forwards drifting halfway up the ground to link up ...
i just don't see much worth in the simple idea that shutting down any two of those three (three is impossible!) will stop us, not this team
and the defence seems to have handled most hiccups so far, covering for mccartin being one ... we've conceded some big quarter scores but as a unit, they seem to almost change shape to slow down opponents who get on a roll
and i agree, i think melican and rampe have been enormous holding everything together, and cunningham and roberts have been really important, and of course blakey is blakey, a constant attacking threat but also a really much improved and brave defender who has fantastic timing in both attack and defence
and lloyd, as a kind of utility, is turning out the best version of lloyd in at least five years!
with mccartin back healthy, francis as back-up, and the luxury of what to do with mills, based on the season so far i dunno how you get too harsh on our defence

I feel like the reason tags aren't working on Heeney, Warner & Gulden is because teams still haven't really figured out what it is that they want to stop with us.

Our midfield is Grundy, Heeney & Rowbottom. They are the contested core getting first use, clearances, possession, territory, all that jazz.

Our midfielders include, but are not limited to, Gulden & Warner. But they are really half forwards/outside runners who just start at centre bounces, and then do most of the damage in the forward half and on the scoreboard.

If you want to stop Gulden & Warner, then putting a tag on them at stoppages won't do much, as that's not where they're doing the most damage anyway. It would require a genuine defender playing on them when they're in the front half. Can't do that or you let our actual half forwards off the chain.

Stopping Grundy or Rowbottom would do more to kill us at the source, but it's hard to see a coach putting time into stopping these two when the other three are around.

We're literally a mind **** for opposition coaches.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Swans talk starts 7:05 mins into the podcast

montagna makes the point we don't make mistakes, and that's a key to our success ... great skills
it's obvious ... but there's a lot of "good" teams who waste possession with shoddy or even lazy disposal skills
port are an example, geez they can butcher it
the lions and the dogs have been guilty of it, and from memory disposal mistakes cost hawthorn a close game
st kilda another pretty regular offender
but we have a team of mostly exceptional kickers, even big men like mclean, mcdonald and melican can be relied upon to find a target quickly by foot
our speed and accuracy, with few mistakes, cuts teams up so quickly