Autopsy Round 21, 2024 : Hawks snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

[skwunk]

So many planets have to align for this to happen. In short it won’t. We aren’t passing GWS and after today’s result we probably don’t deserve to. I’m going to focus on Fremantle dropping two as it’s more realistic.

I'm really confused by this tbh. They play the two most in form teams in the comp away from home, it only takes us winning our last 2 games by 5 goals and them losing one of those 2 games (not even both) by 5 goals. This really is not as far fetched as you are making it sound. If anything it's the most likely result in each game.

It doesn't even require a crazy big smashing by any of those sides.

 

[eldorado]

I'm really confused by this tbh. They play the two most in form teams in the comp away from home, it only takes us winning our last 2 games by 5 goals and them losing one of those 2 games (not even both) by 5 goals. This really is not as far fetched as you are making it sound. If anything it's the most likely result in each game.

It doesn't even require a crazy big smashing by any of those sides.

He's got a bee in his bonnet about it being close to impossible...I'm not sure why

Yes, a few things have to go our way, but if we win all three games, it's a very distinct possibility.

 

[seysearles]

I'm really confused by this tbh. They play the two most in form teams in the comp away from home, it only takes us winning our last 2 games by 5 goals and them losing one of those 2 games (not even both) by 5 goals. This really is not as far fetched as you are making it sound. If anything it's the most likely result in each game.

It doesn't even require a crazy big smashing by any of those sides.

You have 6 things to go wrong in terms of results. If even one of those go wrong it falls apart. Then on top of that you have a variable within each game that you collectively need to go right also (ie. We thrash Richmond AND North or GWS doesn’t get thrashed by the Dogs or the Lions). The chance of us passing GWS are close to zero. It’s like trying to pick the straight 6. I would say that this scenario will be dead and buried by the completion of next round.

That’s why I was happy with the essendon victory. Passing Freo is a much more viable avenue to sneaking through.

 

[Dragz]

Need to work thru a mechanism for Day too get free of the tag. It’s going to happen more and more to him. Rotating up forward perhaps?

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Changes for the Bluuz:

OUT:

• CJ
• Breust

IN:

• Mackenzie
• Morrison (to sub)

 

[skwunk]

You have 6 things to go wrong in terms of results. If even one of those go wrong it falls apart. Then on top of that you have six variables within each game that you need to go right also (ie. We thrash Richmond AND North or GWS doesn’t get thrashed by the Dogs or the Lions). The chance of us passing GWS a close to zero. It’s like trying to pick the straight 6. I would say that this scenario will be dead and buried by the completion of next round.

The only way that it is dead and buried by next round is if GWS beat Brisbane at the Gabba (and we lose to Carlton but our results are a given if we are making finals anyway) but ok. It's the most likely result in each game, not even accounting for the fact that we could get a run on against Richmond or North and win by 10 goals meaning we would only have to scrape by against the other, and that GWS could lose to Freo. I just gave one (pretty reasonable) example of how it could happen.

You are also ignoring that we are coming off two 66 point wins against better sides than we are playing in the last two rounds, if we do that again we won't even need GWS to lose big. There are plenty of ways it could happen, but the point is if you tip Hawthorn in all 3 games, we are honestly more likely to be above GWS on percentage than not. This is a weird hill to die on.

 

[grumbleguts]

He's got a bee in his bonnet about it being close to impossible...I'm not sure why

Yes, a few things have to go our way, but if we win all three games, it's a very distinct possibility.

Very very weird.
Most models that had us making finals had us losing this one. Now we lose it (and by a tiny margin) and the sky is falling. Nuts.

 

[The hands of stone]

Is anyone else warming to the idea of giving Scaife a crack next week against the Blues?Kicked four today at Box Hill and physically he looks more than ready to play senior footy.

I feel like we really need a big, physical forward who can take a grab and he fits that criteria perfectly.

Also reckon Morrison has to get a game as substitute again at either Ward or CJs expense and we need to pick one of Gunners and Bruest in the 23 (probably Gunners as he has the better form).

He is a big lad with a booming kick .
Has only been in our system for a few months and there is something to work with there .

My concern with the jump to AFL is he looks on tram tracks. Not much agility or change of direction . So his forward craft at this point would be questionable.
AFL backman would shut him out .

And I know people will say I said Dear wasn't ready ( very happily wrong ) but his agility and lateral movement are first rate for his size.

 

[The Chad and I]

Good lesson.
We will learn.
If we don’t make it, so be it.
This team is going places.

A good coach once said:
“Harder for longer”

 

[xmarksthespot]

Congratulations on the little one

My wife and I also endured years of failed IVF (9 actually), so I know how hard it can be

We went overseas and were successful with a beautiful baby girl 4 years ago

Again, congratulations

Thanks so much. It's the most expected amazing surprise. We're so lucky.

 

[seysearles]

Very very weird.
Most models that had us making finals had us losing this one. Now we lose it (and by a tiny margin) and the sky is falling. Nuts.

That’s incorrect. Most models had us losing one game and finishing 9th.

 

[skwunk]

What if we beat Carlton by a point and Brisbane narrowly lose

"The only way that it is dead and buried by next round is if GWS beat Brisbane at the Gabba".

 

[peetoo]

Just keep winning it’s fun anyway no matter if it gets anywhere.

 

[Billyc]

Changes for the Bluuz:

OUT:

• CJ
• Breust

IN:

• Mackenzie
• Morrison (to sub)

Ward, not CJ I’d say. Agree with the ins. Morrison is better than Ward and Finn at this stage, unless Finn tags which he doesn’t seem to be doing now

 

[Hawk88]

Very very weird.
Most models that had us making finals had us losing this one. Now we lose it (and by a tiny margin) and the sky is falling. Nuts.

The issue was some results haven't gone our way the last 2 weeks to help our cause

It feels like almost every result we needed it went the other way which makes it extremely hard given our percentage

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Ward, not CJ I’d say.

Ward has only had three games back and the first two were decent. CJ has had 11 games in a row and has been underwhelming in most of them IMO.

 

[peetoo]

Win next week then get a range on whether percentage is worth chasing

 

[triple treat]

I haven’t read the whole thread but what I have read, there’s a fair bit of negativity ( unwarranted).
Thought we were good to today, without being what we have been the last few weeks ( young team)

All I can say is we are ahead of we’re we should be so enjoy what this young teams is delivering now cause it’s only gonna get better.

 

[lordbob]

Good lesson.
We will learn.
If we don’t make it, so be it.
This team is going places.

A good coach once said:
“Harder for longer”

But we didnt learn. Was very similar to the port loss.
1) Sub off calsher early and lose a player to bring the ball to ground up the field.
2) Go into our shells halfway through the qtr and try take time off the clock with 10mins to go, rather than play the attacking football that wins us games. Our defense is not good enough to defend the turnover, its the forward pressure which is our biggest defensive strength.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Bog props to the big man Meek today who gave Briggs (who is no mug) an absolute bath in the ruck today.

One of the biggest positives (maybe the biggest?) from this year has been Meeks coming of age.

We now have a prime ruck who we can bank in for the next five years at least which means we don't have to spend any draft capital on drafting / trading for rucks.

 

[hawk for 37]

Now finished a run of 6 games in 6 different venues.

So a couple games at the home and then York Park will be very much welcome to all.

Perth, Geelong, Launceston, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra. That would have to be some sort of unprecedented run?

 

[StillAtLarge]

Bog props to the big man Meek today who gave Briggs (who is no mug) an absolute bath in the ruck today.

One of the biggest positives (maybe the biggest?) from this year has been Meeks coming of age.

We now have a prime ruck who we can bank in for the next five years at least which means we don't have to spend any draft capital on drafting / trading for rucks.

Yeah Mass & Meeky clearly our best today

 

[RobHawk]

Gws belted Brisbane by 9 goals in their previous match at Manuka oval.
I feel we are severely under-rating our performance today.

 

[RoughysMullet]

Not sure it was Sam Mitchell’s best performance as a coach today…
GWS had two players that were capable of winning the game today in Whitfield and Hogan - we didn’t seem to handle either of them well... or have a plan to shut them down at all…

Understand we back ourselves to win the contest but blind Freddy could see Whitfield had been in great form and we needed to have a plan to shut him down… late in the game Frost as our best one on one defender needed to be the matchup for Hogan- instead we hung Weddle out to dry really…

 

[satan1]

Today is not the day for rational thought.
Bambi out with bath water.

In: Maginess, Morrison, McKenzie, Mcaife and any M that played well at Box Hill.

Out: Breust, CJ, Ward and Gunston after kicking 4.