Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[Mutineer]

Most club recruiters seem to think Sam Lalor is who Richmond favour with their 1st pick...Maybe they see him as the next Dusty methinks?
Seems all clubs see this as a way better draft than 2025 hence so many willing to put their 2025 1st rounders on the table to get into this draft. I think one of the big reasons is the number of high end Northern Academy and F/S that look to be top end picks.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2024-latest-news-as-trade-period-prepares-to-shape-novembers-national-draft/news-story/184ee896b76111f5ffd00e9cdcd04b31

 

[jackster83]

Yes big change and should benefit all other teams without access to large amounts of Academy players (and F/S etc)

More equitable.

Reading the article I am sure they make a mistake by inverting this number (see below) - should be 16% discount after round one, not 84%

then an 84 point discount when they match bids after pick 18.

What happened last year where the Suns were able to take four academy players in the first round (with junk picks) whilst also stockpiling picks for this year was a joke.

Other teams need to start bidding on these players earlier too, so they are forced to cough up.

 

[Mutineer]

What happened last year where the Suns were able to take four academy players in the first round (with junk picks) whilst also stockpiling picks for this year was a joke.

Other teams need to start bidding on these players earlier too, so they are forced to cough up.

Fact is no club is stupid enough to bid on a player they aren't prepared to take if their bid isn't matched....all clubs have a prepared list going into draft night, if they rate that player at that pick they'll bid.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

yep agreed and becomes more equitable for all other teams.

i do wonder if any academy player showing exceptional ability at 16 ish has any manipulation to 'shield' them away and help tank their value??..would be tempting surely if you are the Nth club? I am not saying this was the case but Gulden went from a picks in the low 30's to winning a rising star nomination in round one the following year. clearly massive step up ability over these few mths (yes I must be getting cynical as I age haha, but clearly the temptation could be there)

edit - the other huge benefit of getting locals is a lack of 'go home' factor that most other interstate clubs have suffered from over the years - esp GWS and Suns

I had gulden in my top 10 ! He was highly exposed in junior pathways

Doubts were on his size and contested ball

There is a bit of suspicion about hiding guys but I think it rarely happens , there is so much exposure these days with every game streamed etc

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Fact is no club is stupid enough to bid on a player they aren't prepared to take if their bid isn't matched....all clubs have a prepared list going into draft night, if they rate that player at that pick they'll bid.

Would have happily had us bid on Will Graham with any of our picks last year and said it at the time , wasn’t thinking our last pick where we eventually bid on him though

By next year if you like a guy like that bid on him early and you’ll likely get him with the new points system

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Most club recruiters seem to think Sam Lalor is who Richmond favour with their 1st pick...Maybe they see him as the next Dusty methinks?
Seems all clubs see this as a way better draft than 2025 hence so many willing to put their 2025 1st rounders on the table to get into this draft. I think one of the big reasons is the number of high end Northern Academy and F/S that look to be top end picks.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2024-latest-news-as-trade-period-prepares-to-shape-novembers-national-draft/news-story/184ee896b76111f5ffd00e9cdcd04b31

How was the futures game on mcg GF day ? Nowhere near same standard as last years

Add the standard drop off to fact most of talent is QLD academy tied + / WA and it’s a double whammy

 

[Mostyn]

Was at the Hawk on Your Fork game.

Sat about here ... from 1991 until I moved out of SA.

View attachment 2136813

I missed the Essendon trial and the Hawk on your Fork game, as I had shifts at the Gepps Cross Shell servo.

Interestingly, you didn't see a customer in those days when a Crows game was on.

Became a member that year and watched the rest of the home games that year and the next three or four, then became an interstate member from then until now.

 

[Mutineer]

Would have happily had us bid on Will Graham with any of our picks last year and said it at the time , wasn’t thinking our last pick where we eventually bid on him though

By next year if you like a guy like that bid on him early and you’ll likely get him with the new points system

You might have rated him higher but obviously clubs didn't have him as high?

I rated Joel Freijah as a later 1st rounder but he eventually went mid 40's.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

You might have rated him higher but obviously clubs didn't have him as high?

I rated Joel Freijah as a later 1st rounder but he eventually went mid 40's.

I can see clubs targeting the 2nd 3rd or 4th ranked academy kid in the future if they like them knowing they’ll be a chance with the new bid and match rules

 

[Betts are off]

Where would you play him for year 1 if we drafted him? I’m not sure playing him at HB like a McKercher would suit, but he might get battered purely on the inside, too. Maybe wing with stints in the CBA’s?

Centre Half Weights Room!

With long stints at Full Fridge

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Where would you play him for year 1 if we drafted him? I’m not sure playing him at HB like a McKercher would suit, but he might get battered purely on the inside, too. Maybe wing with stints in the CBA’s?

Yep spot on , can’t see him off a half back like Mckercher

Wing seems logical , he’s likely to pick up the concepts of quite a technical position pretty quickly

Some time forward too maybe , and definitely some centre bounces

Draper can definitely go straight into mid rotation and be a handy pressure forward and would play round 1

Lalor forward with some centre bounces

FOS - wing / half forward maybe but he’s prob the one that could start in defence out of all of them

If they all had enough training they’d all play round 1 , some doubt on Lalor if he had issues with his body in pre season given his history , best to go slower with him compared to the others

 

[budget]

I said this at the start of the year and that his handballs were actually really poor (inaccurate and set up his teammates). His 2023 futures game shows that. As this season went on and specifically at sanfl level, that improved a lot imo. I think his disposal in general improved as the year went on. Must have been something he worked on. That being said he still likes a handball.

His agility, speed and strength for a smaller guy are elite and he's very tough defensively. Knows how to find the ball with ease. I would still prefer Lalor, but I'd still be happy with draper at our pick (and with FOS or Smith). Finally we have some good genuine midfield options at our pick.

Have to agree re the handballs,for someone that bases his game on handball you would think he would be good at it. He’s actually horrible at handball continually sets his team mates up.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LoBu]

Fact is no club is stupid enough to bid on a player they aren't prepared to take if their bid isn't matched....all clubs have a prepared list going into draft night, if they rate that player at that pick they'll bid.

Once the club trades out their first round pick, they will match a top rated player. Outside the first round, this isn't so much the case, but anywhere in the top ten is a 100% guaranteed match, probably the entire first round.

If Essendon keep pick 9 and Kako goes at pick 7, you have to be prepared to take him. But once Essendon trade out of the first round, you could take him at pick 1 and they'll match.

 

[WeeBlake]

I think they are wondering if he handballs to a player just as much under pressure, like Laird.

Exactly my worry, based on 3 YouTube vids

 

[Mostyn]

Jees, I just looked at a few packages of Jagga Smith. We are definately not losing out if he's the one that lands at 4 either. Not surprised he finds so much footy, the way he is always on the move to get himself in the right spot has a bit of Daicos about it. Also seems lightning quick in terms of decision making and ball skills.

Give that kid 2 years in a weights room and he will be a player. He's already a player, but yeah he still needs 2 years in a weights room

He's probably my second choice, after Draper.

I mean, I have no idea, but that's what my heart is telling me.

 

[StonesThrow]

Have to agree re the handballs,for someone that bases his game on handball you would think he would be good at it. He’s actually horrible at handball continually sets his team mates up.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I mean my point was that he's tidied it up. Didn't notice it in his sanfl games.

 

[latinoheat]

Most club recruiters seem to think Sam Lalor is who Richmond favour with their 1st pick...Maybe they see him as the next Dusty methinks?
Seems all clubs see this as a way better draft than 2025 hence so many willing to put their 2025 1st rounders on the table to get into this draft. I think one of the big reasons is the number of high end Northern Academy and F/S that look to be top end picks.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2024-latest-news-as-trade-period-prepares-to-shape-novembers-national-draft/news-story/184ee896b76111f5ffd00e9cdcd04b31

Which is why I’m disappointed we only have 2 picks

 

[crow2crow]

If lalor, draper, langford are gone at pick 4 it would not suprise me if hamish calls tauru over FoS and Jagga thinking he will make him into a midfielder. Its just the sort of shit Hamish pulls.

 

[fuic08]

You might have rated him higher but obviously clubs didn't have him as high?

I rated Joel Freijah as a later 1st rounder but he eventually went mid 40's.

I think you'll be proven right with Freijah, he was very impressive this year.

 

[rabidcrow]

Abridged Article outlining new draft points system for next year with some examples. Miuch fairer system overall and a no brainer to make changes with the amt of Nth Academies incoming. Apologies if someone has already posted as not completely up to date with various threads. And typical Cats whinging about the cheaply acquired nth academy players and even Saints getting pick 8 for Battle. What about their 3 flags built on Ablett, Hawkins and Scarlett - not for a 20% discount but for a bid in the THIRD round as per the rules at the time FFS

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-news-how-changes-to-bidding-system-will-make-clubs-pay-a-fairer-price-for-top-talent/news-story/119aa22c807cc3a8073851689ed7f7a5

No one begrudges any club securing father-son or academy picks.

The less said the better about Victorian clubs like Geelong who have established dynasties with fathers-sons like Matthew Scarlett

Matthew Scarlett

Age

46

Ht

192cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

5.3

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

3.8

1star

K

3.2

2star

HB

0.6

1star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.8

3star

, Gary Ablett and Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

37

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

complaining about free agency compensation.

All clubs want are those teams paying a fair price.

They want them to pay on just terms.

The AFL should have pulled the trigger on changes to the bidding system and draft value index this year so the Lions paid a truer value for No. 1 draft prospect Levi Ashcroft and northern academy midfielder Sam Marshall.



But using the Lions’ likely moves in the next week to secure those points compared to the 2025 changes is a very worthwhile exercise.

It shows how footy’s greatest rort will be at least minimised if not eradicated.

Most footy fans’ eyes glaze over when you talk about draft indexes and points values and back-end pick swaps but it is worth making the changes clear using a live example.

In essence they will stop clubs like Brisbane doing exactly what they are currently executing in coming years – using a heap of back-end picks they would never use to draft a pair of top-20 talents.

Brisbane plans to trade pick 20 for four later Richmond picks to accumulate enough draft points to match bids for Ashcroft and Marshall.

A reminder – they don’t need to have the next pick to match a rival bid, they just need to give up the points value of the pick which their rival offers when they bid on the player.

This year every draft pick is assigned a points value – from 3000 for pick 1 to nine points for pick 73.

This year Brisbane will offer pick 20 (worth 912 points) for Richmond’s pick 32, 42, 43 and 45 (worth 1704 points).

So they pretty much double the value of pick 20 because it gives Richmond a quality pick in a great draft.

For argument’s sake, let’s say they have to match bids in the November national draft for Ashcroft at pick 1 and Marshall at pick 20.

Under this year’s rules they get a 20 per cent discount when they match a bid.

So they only need to find 2400 points for Ashcroft (down from 3000 points) and 729 points for Marshall (down from 912 points).

So Brisbane would only need to trade out a Dev Robertson or find another mid-range pick to accumulate a few more points, and Ashcroft and Marshall are theirs on draft night.

Next year under the DVI (draft value index) the league has stripped 10,000 points from the system so the value of picks drops off a cliff after the first round, with no points for any picks after No. 54.

Clubs also only get a 10 per cent discount (reduced from 20 per cent) when they match bids from picks 1-18, then an 84 point discount when they match bids after pick 18.

So if Brisbane tried to trade pick 20 it would only be worth 757 points anyway and Richmond’s picks (32, 42, 43, 45) would be worth a paltry 941 points compared to this year’s 1704 points.

The Lions would need to find 2700 points for the Ashcroft equivalent and 673 points for the Marshall equivalent.

But even if they got a sweetheart deal using pick 20, they would accumulate only 757 points for those four Richmond picks and they would need to find a total of 3373 points for Ashcroft and Marshall.


On the DVI, picks five (1795) and seven (1543) next year would be worth 3338 points.

Good luck trying to trade into picks five and seven.

They would still have their first-rounder but they might need to trade out someone like a Cam Rayner or Keidean Coleman to find enough points.

So clubs with multiple academy or father-son picks will need to find a ridiculous amount of points if they want to match bids.

They might decide to overlook some of those players, which would put them back into the overall pool.

As it turns out clubs will surely allow Ashcroft past the first handful of picks so it will get even easier this year for the Lions to nail their strategy.

Only next year will we find out if the AFL has gone hard enough on the DVI changes given clubs will find more legal rorts to game the system.

But at least Collingwood (Tom McGuane), Sydney (Lachie Carmichael, Noah Chamberlain) and Brisbane (Daniel Annable) will creep closer to paying on just terms for their future stars in 2025.

Reading that the system won’t last long. Too harsh and a high profile Vic team will miss a father son because they don’t have the capacity to trade high enough. Give it 3 years at best before it’s tweaked


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[TARANTULA]

What priority does pick 4 get over the 10+ other guys fighting for last spots in our starting 22? Hope hs doesn't get the Dan Curtin treatment next year.

 

[1990crow]

Is this where it's looking

1. Lalor (Tigers)
2. Osullivan (North)
3. Draper (WC)

4. Langford/Smith

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Is this where it's looking

1. Lalor (Tigers)
2. Osullivan (North)
3. Draper (WC)

4. Langford/Smith

I’m thinking

1. Smith - Rich
2. Ashcroft- Bris bid matched
3.Tauru - NM (he’s being spruiked big time)
4. Draper - WCE
5. Lalor or O’Sullivan- Adel

 

[FullyBigKPro]

I’m thinking

1. Smith - Rich
2. Ashcroft- Bris bid matched
3.Tauru - NM (he’s being spruiked big time)
4. Draper - WCE
5. Lalor or O’Sullivan- Adel

Reckon WC take FOS or Lalor... Still think Draper makes his way to us.

 

[Big Dub]

What priority does pick 4 get over the 10+ other guys fighting for last spots in our starting 22? Hope hs doesn't get the Dan Curtin treatment next year.

How many 7.7 disposal a game midfielders would get 8 games in a year?

Particularly a player who gave up 6 goals in a half of football in his second game?

The Crows put games into Curtin that he didn't deserve on form alone, because that investment would pay dividends in future years. Because he’s going to be a gun.

Like they invested in Thilthorpe.

Yes, they invested more games in Rachele, Soligo, Michalanney and Berry in their first years. But you'd expect that for ready to go mids.

I hope he DOES get the Curtin treatment.

Or plays like a ready to go mid and gets treated like Rachele, Soligo, Michalanney and Berry in their first years.