Draft Winners and Losers

[danster168]

They aren’t readily available to the public.

okay well stops me from looking for it I guess. Can't believe they don't even publish draft combine results. how dumb.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Very interesting episode of Gettable today. Cal talking about the draft and how it all unfolded.

Reckons that Carlton were down to Smith or Langford in the end and that had Adelaide gone with Langford (who was the one they were strongly considering, along with Draper), that Melbourne would have taken Tauru with their first pick.

Said loads of clubs were keen on Berry, including St Kilda offering their F1 to teams until Berry was off the board.

Likewise, there was a heap of interest in Josh Dolan, who the Dogs got at 31. Said lots of clubs with picks in the 30’s were keen on him.

Said that Richmond taking so many “talls” made sense, as you typically need to draft say 4 with highish picks, in order to find two that make it.

Which is part of the reason he reckons the likes of Shanahan, Whitlock x 2 and Dodson slid so far.

They’re probably only a 50/50 chance of making it, and you may have to wait years to see a return on your investment, so clubs prefer to go with shorter guys, who have less “bust factor”, and can impact sooner.

Reckons that Faull was in high demand though, in particular from Sydney.

 

[tigs2010]

Gotta love Richmond supporters. They're the greatest thing in everything they do.

 

[Obeanie1]

Very interesting episode of Gettable today. Cal talking about the draft and how it all unfolded.

Reckons that Carlton were down to Smith or Langford in the end and that had Adelaide gone with Langford (who was the one they were strongly considering, along with Draper), that Melbourne would have taken Tauru with their first pick.

Said loads of clubs were keen on Berry, including St Kilda offering their F1 to teams until Berry was off the board.

Likewise, there was a heap of interest in Josh Dolan, who the Dogs got at 31. Said lots of clubs with picks in the 30’s were keen on him.

Said that Richmond taking so many “talls” made sense, as you typically need to draft say 4 with highish picks, in order to find two that make it.

Which is part of the reason he reckons the likes of Shanahan, Whitlock x 2 and Dodson slid so far.

They’re probably only a 50/50 chance of making it, and you may have to wait years to see a return on your investment, so clubs prefer to go with shorter guys, who have less “bust factor”, and can impact sooner.

Reckons that Faull was in high demand though, in particular from Sydney.

Not sure shorter players have a lower "bust factor".

You do get a return sooner than talls, that I would agree with.

 

[blaisee]

It depends if you count Lalor and Smillie as pure mids at AFL level.

There's question marks for sure.

Jagga and Draper are are the obvious ones.

Oh really, and how where Richmond meant to draft them, they all went before Pick 6

 

[blaisee]

Richmond probably missed a trick not taking our deal on the first night of night 2 based on Twomey's article.

Knocking back 2 x F2's for Sims seems crazy, particularly after taking Faull, Armstrong and Trainor.

Could have carried another mother load into 2025.

It certainly would have been great for NTh, would have bailed them out of their draft disaster

But after securing Nths F1 the previous night, Richmond where sitting pretty, and decided to get a year of development in Sims, rather than trade that pick. Pretty much what Nth wanted to do, but failed to do

 

[tiger_tough]

Gotta love Richmond supporters. They're the greatest thing in everything they do.

 

[jdstorm]

Hindsight may tell a different story and maybe Faul turns out to be great.

But as of right now not Richmond not going small and taking Reid/berry at 11 (14) was definitely a mistake. Given the premium being placed on SFs/Goal kicking mids and having loaded up on bigger mids already. Taking Reid/Berry (alongside Hotton) was such an easy free hit.

Teams always say “you need talls/Build a spine” but the truth is that you don’t need a good ruck and you can always trade for good Forwards/Defenders or get them in Free Agency if you have the right combination of a deep talented list and available opportunities.

If Richmond go small at with their 4th pick they still have 4 first rounders to take a chance on some talls at 18,+ your twenties picks . 3 After that North trade.

Presumably they take 3 forwards. 1 succeeds, 1 fails and becomes a defender and one doesn’t make it.


Besides typically your star forwards are talked about going top 5 all year. That there wasn’t a player who fit that mould this year is all the more reason to stay away

 

[blaisee]

Hindsight may tell a different story and maybe Faul turns out to be great.

But as of right now not Richmond not going small and taking Reid/berry at 11 (14) was definitely a mistake. Given the premium being placed on SFs/Goal kicking mids and having loaded up on bigger mids already. Taking Reid/Berry (alongside Hotton) was such an easy free hit.

Teams always say “you need talls/Build a spine” but the truth is that you don’t need a good ruck and you can always trade for good Forwards/Defenders or get them in Free Agency if you have the right combination of a deep talented list and available opportunities.

If Richmond go small at with their 4th pick they still have 4 first rounders to take a chance on some talls at 18,+ your twenties picks . 3 After that North trade.

Presumably they take 3 forwards. 1 succeeds, 1 fails and becomes a defender and one doesn’t make it.


Besides typically your star forwards are talked about going top 5 all year. That there wasn’t a player who fit that mould this year is all the more reason to stay away

Building a spine is a key to winning the flag

Essendon is a great example of how important this is, and the absence of A grade KP players results in teams not winning finals for decades

Taking Faull, Armstrong, Simms gives Richmond the best chance of doing this and that is why it was done

Berry is a good little player, but Richmond have shown that players like Berry are available in rookie drafts, players that are good enough to play that role in premiership winning flags

Saying that this strategy was "definitely a mistake" is just wishful thinking.

 

[tiger_tough]

Hindsight may tell a different story and maybe Faul turns out to be great.

But as of right now not Richmond not going small and taking Reid/berry at 11 (14) was definitely a mistake. Given the premium being placed on SFs/Goal kicking mids and having loaded up on bigger mids already. Taking Reid/Berry (alongside Hotton) was such an easy free hit.

Teams always say “you need talls/Build a spine” but the truth is that you don’t need a good ruck and you can always trade for good Forwards/Defenders or get them in Free Agency if you have the right combination of a deep talented list and available opportunities.

If Richmond go small at with their 4th pick they still have 4 first rounders to take a chance on some talls at 18,+ your twenties picks . 3 After that North trade.

Presumably they take 3 forwards. 1 succeeds, 1 fails and becomes a defender and one doesn’t make it.


Besides typically your star forwards are talked about going top 5 all year. That there wasn’t a player who fit that mould this year is all the more reason to stay away

LOL thanks for your opinion

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hindsight may tell a different story and maybe Faul turns out to be great.

But as of right now not Richmond not going small and taking Reid/berry at 11 (14) was definitely a mistake. Given the premium being placed on SFs/Goal kicking mids and having loaded up on bigger mids already. Taking Reid/Berry (alongside Hotton) was such an easy free hit.

Teams always say “you need talls/Build a spine” but the truth is that you don’t need a good ruck and you can always trade for good Forwards/Defenders or get them in Free Agency if you have the right combination of a deep talented list and available opportunities.

If Richmond go small at with their 4th pick they still have 4 first rounders to take a chance on some talls at 18,+ your twenties picks . 3 After that North trade.

Presumably they take 3 forwards. 1 succeeds, 1 fails and becomes a defender and one doesn’t make it.


Besides typically your star forwards are talked about going top 5 all year. That there wasn’t a player who fit that mould this year is all the more reason to stay away

If they didn't take Faull when they did they weren't getting him as Sydney were massive into him, so with that many picks why on earth not take the best one they rate? Yes they could have taken Reid/Berry, but they will have pick 1 plus lets say pick 6/7 (Norths) next year they can address that then. There's an old saying and it runs so true in building lists and trading..."Rome wasn't built in a day". Similarly you can't build a list in one trade period unless you get ridiculously lucky. Taking 4 smalls then the talls would be such a Dodoro thing.

 

[jdstorm]

If they didn't take Faull when they did they weren't getting him as Sydney were massive into him, so with that many picks why on earth not take the best one they rate? Yes they could have taken Reid/Berry, but they will have pick 1 plus lets say pick 6/7 (Norths) next year they can address that then. There's an old saying and it runs so true in building lists and trading..."Rome wasn't built in a day". Similarly you can't build a list in one trade period unless you get ridiculously lucky. Taking 4 smalls then the talls would be such a Dodoro thing.

Fundamentally Dodorro was known for focusing on building spines first and trying to convert flankers into midfielders while usually failing at both. So I’m not sure how suggesting the opposite of that (focusing on Inside mids and SF goal threats) is a Dodorro thing to do?

Why should Richmond not have taken their No1 tall?

For me personally it’s such a huge advantage to get multiple 200+ game players in a draft whatever position they play. With talls there’s real risk reward and given this particular crop of talls were all rated later picks prioritising the best of a mediocre bunch over a much more sure thing smaller player seems unwise to me.

I’m suggesting to do what GWS did that first draft. Just lock in as many good footballers as possible. Take a few chances on talls later. Then next year fill gaps with best available talent and/or take a chance on a real top 5 ranked tall

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fundamentally Dodorro was known for focusing on building spines first and trying to convert flankers into midfielders while usually failing at both. So I’m not sure how suggesting the opposite of that (focusing on Inside mids and SF goal threats) is a Dodorro thing to do?

Why should Richmond not have taken their No1 tall?

For me personally it’s such a huge advantage to get multiple 200+ game players in a draft whatever position they play. With talls there’s real risk reward and given this particular crop of talls were all rated later picks prioritising the best of a mediocre bunch over a much more sure thing smaller player seems unwise to me.

I’m suggesting to do what GWS did that first draft. Just lock in as many good footballers as possible. Take a few chances on talls later. Then next year fill gaps with best available talent and/or take a chance on a real top 5 ranked tall

You need key position players and the best ones are generally taken early especially lately. Tigers will take another early one next year to pair with the obvious midfielder at pick 1. It makes sense, Hawks built their dynasty on taking two highly rated talls in Roughead/Buddy early. Did you actually look at GWS's first draft? They took Cam McCarthy around the exact time Richmond took Faull. Even if it doesn't work out Richmond have other picks that might, they took Armstrong a fraction later. They took 3 smaller players straight up at picks 1 6 and 10, look could they have taken one at 12 sure, taking a tall is important too.

 

[jdstorm]

You need key position players and the best ones are generally taken early especially lately. Tigers will take another early one next year to pair with the obvious midfielder at pick 1. It makes sense, Hawks built their dynasty on taking two highly rated talls in Roughead/Buddy early. Did you actually look at GWS's first draft? They took Cam McCarthy around the exact time Richmond took Faull. Even if it doesn't work out Richmond have other picks that might, they took Armstrong a fraction later. They took 3 smaller players straight up at picks 1 6 and 10, look could they have taken one at 12 sure, taking a tall is important too.

I’m less convinced that talls need to be drafted. Of the last few flag teams.

Lions didn’t draft Daniher and started a backup ruck. Pies had Cox/Cameron/Mcstay/Frampton. One of whom they drafted.
Geelong traded for Jezza.
Dee’s traded for May
tigers traded for lynch.

It’s just far easier to trade for these guys than draft them. You’ll draft a few but if you need a good one you’ll be able to trade for one.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Hindsight may tell a different story and maybe Faul turns out to be great.

But as of right now not Richmond not going small and taking Reid/berry at 11 (14) was definitely a mistake. Given the premium being placed on SFs/Goal kicking mids and having loaded up on bigger mids already. Taking Reid/Berry (alongside Hotton) was such an easy free hit.

Teams always say “you need talls/Build a spine” but the truth is that you don’t need a good ruck and you can always trade for good Forwards/Defenders or get them in Free Agency if you have the right combination of a deep talented list and available opportunities.

If Richmond go small at with their 4th pick they still have 4 first rounders to take a chance on some talls at 18,+ your twenties picks . 3 After that North trade.

Presumably they take 3 forwards. 1 succeeds, 1 fails and becomes a defender and one doesn’t make it.


Besides typically your star forwards are talked about going top 5 all year. That there wasn’t a player who fit that mould this year is all the more reason to stay away

I agree entirely, given the premium on key forwards, the fact that none of these were even talked about in the top 10 of this draft really says something. I think Richmond went way overboard on the talls and clearly overpaid. Enjoy Matthew Watson-esque youth Tiger fans.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If they didn't take Faull when they did they weren't getting him as Sydney were massive into him, so with that many picks why on earth not take the best one they rate? Yes they could have taken Reid/Berry, but they will have pick 1 plus lets say pick 6/7 (Norths) next year they can address that then. There's an old saying and it runs so true in building lists and trading..."Rome wasn't built in a day". Similarly you can't build a list in one trade period unless you get ridiculously lucky. Taking 4 smalls then the talls would be such a Dodoro thing.

What happens if the best players at Pick #1 and pick #6 next year are generational forwards that are far more highly rated than Faul etal? They now have 5 or 6 key forwards on their list from two seasons?

 

[tiger_tough]

I love all the bigfooty experts that know better than our entire recruiting department (that built a dynasty list not that long ago).

 

[tiger_tough]

What happens if the best players at Pick #1 and pick #6 next year are generational forwards that are far more highly rated than Faul etal? They now have 5 or 6 key forwards on their list from two seasons?

Then we trade pick 1 for a huge bounty if we decide we don't want the tall?

Who was the last generational forward that went pick 1? Nick Riewoldt 23 years ago?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You need key position players and the best ones are generally taken early especially lately. Tigers will take another early one next year to pair with the obvious midfielder at pick 1. It makes sense, Hawks built their dynasty on taking two highly rated talls in Roughead/Buddy early. Did you actually look at GWS's first draft? They took Cam McCarthy around the exact time Richmond took Faull. Even if it doesn't work out Richmond have other picks that might, they took Armstrong a fraction later. They took 3 smaller players straight up at picks 1 6 and 10, look could they have taken one at 12 sure, taking a tall is important too.

None of these Richmond talls are even half as highly touted as Roughead or Buddy. That's the point.

We're definitely talking more Hugh Goddard (Pick #21, 2014), Todd Marshal (Pick #16, 2016), Jarrod Brander (Pick #13, 2017), Callum Coleman Jones (Pick #20, 2017) - sort of areas here.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I love all the bigfooty experts that know better than our entire recruiting department (that built a dynasty list not that long ago).

Your list was always largely talentless, this has been discussed ad nauseum. Your dynasty was built off a disruptive game plan where VFL level talent who can run all day and infringe at rates higher than the Umpires were willing to call free's + the sprinkling of a handful of elite players like Dusty, Rance and Riewoldt - which resulted in extreme pressure and therefore wins. It wasn't because Richmond had the best talent, and your recruiting department is actually one of the poorest in the league.

 

[tiger_tough]

Your list was always largely talentless, this has been discussed ad nauseum. Your dynasty was built off a disruptive game plan where VFL level talent who can run all day and infringe at rates higher than the Umpires were willing to call free's + the sprinkling of a handful of elite players like Dusty, Rance and Riewoldt - which resulted in extreme pressure and therefore wins. It wasn't because Richmond had the best talent, and your recruiting department is actually one of the poorest in the league.

haha FMD.

Houli, Rance, Edwards, Martin, Lambert, Short, Lynch, Balta, Vlastuin, Grimes, Bolton, Baker, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Ellis, Astbury, Rioli, Caddy, Broad etc. Yeah real bunch of battlers there.

Largely talentless?

 

[jdstorm]

I love all the bigfooty experts that know better than our entire recruiting department (that built a dynasty list not that long ago).

Are they still there. Your premiership coach isn’t and your fitness guy works at hawthorn.

It’s okay to potentially not get everything 100% right

Then we trade pick 1 for a huge bounty if we decide we don't want the tall?

Who was the last generational forward that went pick 1? Nick Riewoldt 23 years ago?

Cadman? Jamarra?

teams often play it safe at pick 1 for a reason. But these guys don’t typically make it past pick 3

 

[FlowersByIrene]

haha FMD.

Houli, Rance, Edwards, Martin, Lambert, Short, Lynch, Balta, Vlastuin, Grimes, Bolton, Baker, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Ellis, Astbury, Rioli, Caddy, Broad etc. Yeah real bunch of battlers there.

Largely talentless?

Thank you for proving my point with the bolded... and the mercenary Lynch is hardly a big tick to your recruitment team, not hard to get a key forward to leave the Gold Coast and come to a dynasty team.

 

[tiger_tough]

Are they still there. Your premiership coach isn’t and your fitness guy works at hawthorn.

It’s okay to potentially not get everything 100% right



Cadman? Jamarra?

teams often play it safe at pick 1 for a reason. But these guys don’t typically make it past pick 3

Francis Jackson and Blair Hartley are, yes. The coach and fitness bloke aren't part of the recruiting dept.

Cadman is highly unlikely to end up 'generational' JUH, possibly.

So 2 in the last few decades? Don't typically make it past pick 3? Buddy, Pavlich, Kennedy, Hawkins, Riewoldt, Fevola, Hall etc were all selected beyond 3.

 

[tiger_tough]

Thank you for proving my point with the bolded... and the mercenary Lynch is hardly a big tick to your recruitment team, not hard to get a key forward to leave the Gold Coast and come to a dynasty team.

LOL Grimes was one of, if not the best defender in the league for a while ya peanut. AA and Bnf winner too.

Vlastuin talentless? Highlighting him is enough to prove you have no idea. Any objective footy fan would agree with me.