2025 Ladder Predictions

[BLACAE]

My 2 cents worth.

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[Fadge]

My 2 cents worth.View attachment 2195602View attachment 2195603View attachment 2195604

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Hard to argue with that...

 

[beside the seaside]

My 2 cents worth.View attachment 2195602View attachment 2195603View attachment 2195604

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Seems fairly measured.

 

[Saints43]

The bias on this thread is laughable.

Saw a Freo poster tip Freo to finish second. Freo are projected to finish 9th according to the bookies.

Saw a St Kilda poster tip St Kilda to finish 5th. St Kilda are projected to come 13th according to the bookies.

Let’s get serious for a second here and show some objectivity when doing your predictions.

For the record I had Melbourne finishing 13th next year.

If I went and put a billion dollars on West Coast to win the flag they'd be the bookies favorites to win the flag.
Do you get that bookies aren't making predictions, they're managing risk from bets already taken from mug punters?

 

[Fadge]

If I went and put a billion dollars on West Coast to win the flag they'd be the bookies favorites to win the flag.
Do you get that bookies aren't making predictions, they're managing risk from bets already taken from mug punters?

What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...

 

[Trav 20]

What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...

People are sheep, you only have to look at the world's various stock markets to know that.

The betting reflects the current sentiment, which can and will change.

 

[Fadge]

People are sheep, you only have to look at the world's various stock markets to know that.

The betting reflects the current sentiment, which can and will change.

Of course it will change, as more information is made available, such as results of 2025 matches...

 

[TheWalyalupFan]

Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide

 

[Colonial]

Dockers
Giants
Blues
Hawks
Swans
Lions
Suns
Power
Cats
Dogs
Pies
Saints
Bombers
Demons
Eagles
Roos
Crows
Tigers

 

[bato]

Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide

Out of interest - reason behind Crows 18th?

 

[Hydatina Physis]

Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide

Tigs at 15? Ya dreamin'

 

[Rob R]

Carlton (makes me feel sick saying it)
Brisbane
Fremantle
Bulldog
GCS
Geelong
Hawthorn
GWS

Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Melbourne
St Kilda
Sydney
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Essendon
West Coast
Richmond

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[Kane McGoodwin]

Out of interest - reason behind Crows 18th?

Probably felt like it was Cumming... & Peatling.

We won't finish 18th as would sack Nicks midseason & bring in someone else who would win more than Richmond.

 

[Macca180]

Richmond are ****ed.

Superpower to bottom.

 

[Vindicater]

Geelong
Collingwood
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Carlton
Fremantle
Adelaide
Gold Coast

Port
GWS
Sydney
Essendon
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Melbourne
West Coast
North Melbourne
Richmond

 

[terrybull]

Tigs at 15? Ya dreamin'

I say lock this ladder in!

3rd and 4th picks will do.

 

[JustaBattler]

What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...

Betting odds current https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2025-8577634
this is your first and purposeful mis-quoting of the current 'opinions' of an agent and its customers who wish to play guessing games

Guessing games arent probabilities - they are merely aggregated 'opnions'... different to your 'opinion' which is not only biased but also different to the aggregate of opnions as expressed in the current betting odds.

So NO Brisbane or any other Club is NOT more likely to do ANYTHING if you are referencing probability - because probability has NOTHING to do with 'opnion' or betting odds.

Betting agencies are merely 'market makers' - something I am familiar with over 3 decades of practise in markets FAR more compelx than 'opnions' about football rankings...

'Actual' probabilities is a funny and strange red herring you use because of ignorance of basic startistical theory as well ...

people can come up with all sorts of multi factor equations using all sorts of arithmetic gymanstics to try and 'argue' a probability - but none of these attemtps woudl be adressing 'actual' probability - becaue 'actual' probability is (effectively) indeterminable for rational thinkers...

nto so much for irrational or naive thinkers ( like yourself)

SO NO a rational person cant make 'plenty' by beting on non -existant 'actual' probability either.

You seem to not understand the business of market making and seem to conflate opnion with probability - every time you reference odds as being equivalent to probability. AFL is not a coin toss situation.

Instead I suggest that you just say - 'my opniuon' is that this team will beat these teams. Dont try and add gravitas to yoru 'opnion' referencing things you clerly dont understand- be proud of your 'opnion' and all its repetitive biases.

 

[Worm4]

What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...

Fudging facts again.Carlton and GWS are same level as both Collingwood and Sydney , yet you forgot them in your statement.

 

[NetworkNerd]

My 2 cents worth.View attachment 2195602View attachment 2195603View attachment 2195604

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't see how Carlton can finish that low with their draw and a healthy list...

 

[Fadge]

Betting odds current https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2025-8577634
this is your first and purposeful mis-quoting of the current 'opinions' of an agent and its customers who wish to play guessing games

Guessing games arent probabilities - they are merely aggregated 'opnions'... different to your 'opinion' which is not only biased but also different to the aggregate of opnions as expressed in the current betting odds.

So NO Brisbane or any other Club is NOT more likely to do ANYTHING if you are referencing probability - because probability has NOTHING to do with 'opnion' or betting odds.

Betting agencies are merely 'market makers' - something I am familiar with over 3 decades of practise in markets FAR more compelx than 'opnions' about football rankings...

'Actual' probabilities is a funny and strange red herring you use because of ignorance of basic startistical theory as well ...

people can come up with all sorts of multi factor equations using all sorts of arithmetic gymanstics to try and 'argue' a probability - but none of these attemtps woudl be adressing 'actual' probability - becaue 'actual' probability is (effectively) indeterminable for rational thinkers...

nto so much for irrational or naive thinkers ( like yourself)

SO NO a rational person cant make 'plenty' by beting on non -existant 'actual' probability either.

You seem to not understand the business of market making and seem to conflate opnion with probability - every time you reference odds as being equivalent to probability. AFL is not a coin toss situation.

Instead I suggest that you just say - 'my opniuon' is that this team will beat these teams. Dont try and add gravitas to yoru 'opnion' referencing things you clerly dont understand- be proud of your 'opnion' and all its repetitive biases.

A lot of drivel without saying anything.

But are you saying that it is not more 'probable' for Brisbane to win the flag than any other team in the competition? For example, Richmond?

Opinions are based on data, and betting markets are based on these opinions.

Otherwise, how do YOU assess the relative 'probabilities' of each team winning the flag?

 

[Fadge]

I don't see how Carlton can finish that low with their draw and a healthy list...

Wait and see...

It will be another enjoyable season for non Carlton supporters.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The flag betting market is absurd this year
It so compressed (with 9 teams priced bw $7 and $14) that it's essentially meaningless

 

[Fadge]

Fudging facts again.Carlton and GWS are same level as both Collingwood and Sydney , yet you forgot them in your statement.

Oh.

Do ALL betting agencies offer exactly the same odds?

And it was simply an example for the point of the discussion.

'But, but, but you left out Carlton....'

 

[Fadge]

The flag betting market is absurd this year
It so compressed (with 9 teams priced bw $7 and $14) that it's essentially meaningless

It just shows how even the competition is.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It just shows how even the competition is.

Correct