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Expectations for 2025

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With our abundance of talls I'd like to see someone providing a solid marking target from kick ins, an area we haven't looked comfortable for a long time.

Meanwhile, after a kick in at Norf, about 60m out to the right, Jack does his thing:

Volunteer GIF by Australian Survivor
 
1737574166586.png

I have really liked the look of both Dewar and Johnston this past season.

It's encouraging to see their composure at the higher level given their lack of experience.

Dewar and Whopper will be great players to transition the ball from D50 into attack - would love to see both play across half back at WAFL level to see what they're capable of.
 
Did the old Squiggle ladder predictor as the young bloke has been watching a few early ladder predictions on YouTube.

Have us winning 7 games and finishing 16th

Rd 1 vs GC (H)
Rd 6 vs ESS (H)
Rd 8 vs MELB (H)
Rd 9 vs RICH (A)
Rd 10 vs StK (H)
Rd 13 vs NM (A*)
Rd 19 vs RICH (H)

*Bunno game.

If we can jag another 1 or 2 wins I’d be relatively happy as another year of the rebuild. Splitting the Derbies again this year would be very nice indeed.
 

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Did the old Squiggle ladder predictor as the young bloke has been watching a few early ladder predictions on YouTube.

Have us winning 7 games and finishing 16th

Rd 1 vs GC (H)
Rd 6 vs ESS (H)
Rd 8 vs MELB (H)
Rd 9 vs RICH (A)
Rd 10 vs StK (H)
Rd 13 vs NM (A*)
Rd 19 vs RICH (H)

*Bunno game.

If we can jag another 1 or 2 wins I’d be relatively happy as another year of the rebuild. Splitting the Derbies again this year would be very nice indeed.
pretty much how I see their season, NM game Rd 13 could go either way
 
We are going to be smashed on turnover this year, especially while getting use to the gameplan.
I’m expecting the first half of the season to have some tough moments. That said, we have enough players with experience to implement the game plan around the mid season bye.

I’d also be happy to see the right signs on field and get killed on turnover than go back to controlled slow football.
 

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Thinking of Hardwick (optimistically) saying he already had 80% of his premiership list etc …

Assuming we can get to a GF in eight? years, what proportion of that GF list do we already have?

I’d guess say 70%. Or probably it’s more relevant to say, if we are to get to a GF in that time then it’ll only happen if we’ve already got 70% or more.

And it’s a question where the answer will be far clearer after R23. That’s what makes this season unlike any in recent history. A season where our list is dominated by youth. Exciting eh?
 
1:BRI
2:SYD
3:CAR
4:GEE
5:FRE
6:HAW
7:GWS
8:ADE
9:WB
10:pA
11:COLL
12:MEL
13:GC
14:ESS
15:NM
16:WC
17: STK
18:RICH
WC, NM, ESS all on 6 wins.
WC could finish between 16th & 14th
 
I'd prefer Simmo kept out of it as much as possible, but I know he's involved with footy media now...
 
I'd prefer Simmo kept out of it as much as possible, but I know he's involved with footy media now...

He’s on SEN Monday mornings with Goosage for two hours. They’re doing a ladder predictor for all 18 after the first 6 rounds spread over 3 weeks

Last Monday they did the bottom 6 clubs from last year, which obviously included us. Had us winning our home games against Gold Coast and Essendon which isn’t an unreasonable position
 
Haven't been taking any notice of predictions, it's a futile exercise. However, I am wildly optimistic this year that we will
see a huge improvement. Can't wait for the season to get under way, including the game this Sunday down at Bunbury.
Saturday, 1st March 2025, 3:10pm
 
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Thinking of Hardwick (optimistically) saying he already had 80% of his premiership list etc …

Assuming we can get to a GF in eight? years, what proportion of that GF list do we already have?

I’d guess say 70%. Or probably it’s more relevant to say, if we are to get to a GF in that time then it’ll only happen if we’ve already got 70% or more.

And it’s a question where the answer will be far clearer after R23. That’s what makes this season unlike any in recent history. A season where our list is dominated by youth. Exciting eh?

I think I’ll answer it in terms of when can we contend again rather than win a flag. Some teams win flags early in contending years and some late (and some never do).

I think we can make finals by 2026 as a young team akin to Hawks last year.

It’s a very rudimentary way of measuring our rebuild but I think of us as being 2 years behind hawks.

They dipped their toes in the rebuild water in 2019, committed in 2020.

We dipped our toes in 2021 and committed in 2022.

While hawks were never as bad as us they looked bland, putrid and their list was going nowhere in 2021-22.

Kane Cornes used to say they were further from a flag than even north Melbourne!?!

We’re just coming out of that same phase.

By that measure I think we can make finals next year and contend in 2027. Conservatively our B22 would be:

Hough (23)XX Duggan (30)
Ginbey (22) XX Yeo (32)
Dewar (22) Allan (21) XX
Long (23) Allen** (27) Brockman (24)
Waterman (28) Baker (29)
XX Reid (22) Hewett (23)
Graham (28) Maric (23) XX XX

That’s 15/22 which is around 67% and doesn’t factor in guys like AReid, Shanahan, Barnett, Johnston, Greggo, Gross, JEilliams, Bazzo or Chesser, Hutchinson.

Of the slots left could see Barnett/Shanahan taking defensive key posts

AReid or JWill playing ruck/fwd

Johnston in a wing

Also doesn’t factor in that we might get Warner who would be 26 and assumes Oscar stays.

A more optimistic scenario would be alot the above in to the vacant spots and all we need left is a decent ruck.

In that scenario we’d still be trying to find replacements for Yeo, Duggan and lesser extent Baker but Yeo would have moved to backline and they’re all flanker/hb types that are far easier to replace than the Kennedys and McGoverns of the world.
 
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He’s on SEN Monday mornings with Goosage for two hours. They’re doing a ladder predictor for all 18 after the first 6 rounds spread over 3 weeks

Last Monday they did the bottom 6 clubs from last year, which obviously included us. Had us winning our home games against Gold Coast and Essendon which isn’t an unreasonable position
Thanks Keys, I get that, I realise he's doing all clubs, but it just doesn't feel right to me. I just hope he's not circling around giving commentary on the Eagles and the new coach during season. The optics are that we've hardly heard from the new coach (that will change from the Roos game next Saturday) and we've got the old coach commentating from the sidelines. It's not easy to be a sports commentator in a two horse town, but i feel he should just disappear off the landscape for awhile. I'm not interested in his stories about when he coached his first scratch-match etc, that's all done and dusted. We have a new coach, I want to hear about him...
 
Thanks Keys, I get that, I realise he's doing all clubs, but it just doesn't feel right to me. I just hope he's not circling around giving commentary on the Eagles and the new coach during season. The optics are that we've hardly heard from the new coach (that will change from the Roos game next Saturday) and we've got the old coach commentating from the sidelines. It's not easy to be a sports commentator in a two horse town, but i feel he should just disappear off the landscape for awhile. I'm not interested in his stories about when he coached his first scratch-match etc, that's all done and dusted. We have a new coach, I want to hear about him...

Simmo gives good insight, has always been a pretty dignified guy and a smart tactician/strategic coach.

No one at collingwood minds Buckley commentating Collingwood games or connecting in the media about them.

It would be a different story if Simmo behaved the way Suma or Jakovich have in the past, but that’s not his character.

While it might not feel right to you, you might need to get right with it as it’s not a big deal in the slightest and will be ongoing through the whole the season.
 
Just assuming we have no idea and using the technique of "using the past to predict the future", we can map the performance of Simpson's and Worsfold's first five years to McQualter's future five years, we should expect 2 GF and at least one flag.
 
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