serial_thrilla
PhenomenalV1's Best Friend
- Mar 25, 2014
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- #26
Everybody strap in... I'm about to open some motherf*cking windows.
Before I start, I believe that the process behind running the SFA simulation and the various people who have carried out this process are honest and above reproach. But please take the time to read this, any TL/DR shit will show you up as a lazy flog with the empathy of a brick and the intellect to match.
In any sporting competition, you'll normally find one team that has the wood over another, an example being that period when Geelong had the wood over Hawthorn in what was dubbed 'the Kennett curse'. And in the vast majority of those instances, at some point things return to something resembling equilibrium. Not always though.
Take the qooty matches between the Coney Island Warriors and the Dragons. There's been a rivalry there almost from the get go. The season 19 grand final is one that sits in SFA infamy, and regardless of whether you prescribe to conspiracy theories or not it is only one data point out of 37.
So what does the full data set of 37 games tell us? 9 wins, 2 draws and 26 losses at 24.32%, with a total margin of -490 points at an average of -13.24 points per game. Add another four finals with the Warriors only having a draw to show for, things become more grim. No wins from five, but hey it's still a small sample size. That's a pretty extreme example of one team having the wood over the other at first glance, but when you consider the agent of the results is a 'random' simulator then you really see the violence inherent in the system. Being random, each result is akin to a coin toss which makes the probability of 9 wins out of 37 come out as 0.0009052, or 0.0905%. One in 1104.8 times you get such a series of results.
Now for those that are students of my previous statistical work, you will know that I do most of my stuff AB (anno Bob), or from the season I started in the SFA. And from this point things get even more preposterous. I have played the Dragons 15 times with the ledger as of about an hour ago sitting at one win, one draw and 13 losses from 15 games. That's a winning percentage of 6.67%. Six point six f*cken seven percent, with an overall margin of -398 points or -26.53 points per game. Let that sink in... I average a five goal loss every time I play the Dragons. The probability of those results occurring is 0.0004578 (0.0458%), or once in 2148.5 attempts. And as TheInjuryFactory highlighted this week, I have been the longest serving captain of the Warriors (110 games over seven seasons and counting) yet am the only one to have not led my side to a win against the Dragons. One f*ckass draw out of eight games.
GreyCrow asked the question "When is it our turn?" earlier in the season in regards to the results that the Gold City Royals have had since their [checks notes] premiership in season 30 after his team had a bit of a lean patch. He is right to ask that question, and as it turned out they won their next match so perhaps the squeaky wheel does get the grease. But my brother in Christ I have had an absolute f*cken gutful of this shit.
THE running joke of the SFA is the fact that the Coney Island Warriors have never won a premiership, with the aforementioned grand final of 20 seasons ago the only time we've featured in the final match of a season. Well when we're given a handicap of at least one automatic loss every time it only serves to perpetuate the joke. Makes recruitment harder too - "Don't want to win a premiership? Come join the Warriors". And if that's what the SFA wants, to have a team to act as the Washington f*cken Generals while every other single team get their lick of the proverbial ice cream then you can get in the bin. And if you suggest that maybe I'm the issue and if I wasn't around then the Warriors may beat the Dragons, you can eat a back of f*cken dicks as well.
I don't expect anything to change, nor should I expect anything to change. Again, I trust the honesty of both the process and the people running the simulation. I'll admit that in my weaker moments I wonder whether there's an agenda to keep the running joke going, I am human after all. I am though absolutely allowed to be aggrieved by the perpetual bullshit that my team gets delivered season in and season out. The sad thing is, I don't believe that we will ever get 'our turn'. With the Dragons, or with the SFA premiership.
I will finish this with a message for my Warriors teammates. You do not deserve this crap. You & your predecessors have done the hard yards for 22 seasons now, and you & your successors will keep doing the hard yards for however long this competition runs for. You have been gifted nothing but flaming bags of dogshit at the front door of Van Cortlandt Park from the simulator, particularly when we play the Dragons, and you don't give a flying f*ck. That's why I love you. Stupid sexy Wazzas.
So I want you to get up now...
This is a melt of haydo proportions.
Media - I'm done
Honestly, who the **** would get off so much by playing a massive "prank" as they call it just to prove a point to themselves. A prank? How ******* old are you? Honestly? This whole Coach debacle was a shit stir and I for one has been played as a fool. As a captain of a club that is seriously...





Ophidian Old Boys
